Global markets are in a phase of sharp correction*and risk aversion. Caution over the unfolding earnings season is combining with persistent worries about the Dollar and slowing growth, pushing the vast majority of sectors lower.

🇺🇸 US Equities (Pre-market)

S&P 500 (Futures) — Moving in a decisive drop, markets are pricing in a strong negative open.

$DJ30 — Sharp decline, dragged down by industrial and financial stocks.

$NSDQ100 — Under heavy pressure, the tech sector is the hardest hit by renewed *risk-offsentiment.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+1,16%) — Down, the semiconductor sector is under pressure.

$GOOGL (+1,25%) — Down, the Communication Services sector is taking losses.

$AVGO (+2,3%) — Down, the semiconductor complex is negative.

$META (+0,13%) — Down, aligning with the tech sector's weakness.

$MSFT (-0,03%) — Down, the stock is losing ground.

$QBTS (+16,63%) — Sharp correction, speculative stocks are hit by profit-taking.

$RGTI (-1,06%) — Down, following the *new techcorrection.

$TSM (+0,6%) — Down, chip optimism isn't holding against macro pressure.

$RR. (-0,16%) — Down, the industrial sector is weak.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,02%) — Down, negative sentiment weighs on consumer confidence.

$BABA (+3,86%) — Down, global uncertainties hit Chinese stocks.

$CVNA (+4,36%) — Down, the stock is losing ground.

$SHOP (+2,85%) — Down, retail tech is under pressure.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Decidedly negative*open, global pessimism is hitting Europe.

GER40 — Sharp drop, weakness is widespread.

$LDO (+1,34%) — Down, the defense sector is cautious.

$IBE (+0,16%) — Down, utilities are under pressure.

$OKLO — Down, the new tech stock is seeing profit-taking.

🏦 Banks & Finance

$UCG.MI, $ISP.MI — Down, the banking sector is under global pressure.

$BAMI.MI, $CE.MI, $BPE.MI — Down, Italian banks are giving up ground after the recent isolated rally.

$BBVA.MC — Down, the financial sector is impacted by the *risk-offmove.

$AXP, $V — Down, payment services are affected by consumer spending fears.

💱 Forex

$DXY — The Dollar Index is moving in a solid rally, acting as a haven in this environment.

$EURUSD — Down, the Euro loses ground against the Dollar.

$USDJPY — Up, the Yen is weakening due to the strong Dollar.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0,34%) — Sharp correction, gold is down amid profit-taking after the recent double top (near $4400$).

$BRENT / $WTI — Down, oil is under pressure due to global demand fears.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,83%) / $ETH (+1,43%) — Down, cryptocurrencies are under heavy pressure and aligned with the equity *risk-offmove, testing critical support levels.

In Summary: Caution has turned into fear. Weakness is generalized, with investors retreating from growth assets and even traditional havens like Gold, primarily driven by the strength of the Dollar. Focus remains squarely on $NFLX$ and $TSLA$ earnings, which could set the tone for the rest of the week.

Follow the Analysis:

For daily real-time market insights, *deep dives*, and trading discussions, follow me on X: [https://x.com/ThomasVioli](https://x.com/ThomasVioli)

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⚠️ Disclaimer:*Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures indicate a slight decline, showing loss of momentum after yesterday's rally, driven by negative tech futures.

$DJ30 — Down slightly, affected by the cautious sentiment and renewed Dollar strength.

$NSDQ100 — Under pressure, the tech rally has faded, leading to pre-market weakness.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+1,16%) — Down slightly (-0.10%), the chipmaker stock is struggling to hold onto yesterday's gains.

$GOOGL (+1,25%) — Down (-0.44%), aligning with the cautious sentiment in the tech sector.

$AVGO (+2,3%) — Up slightly (0.09%), showing resilience in the semiconductor space.

$META (+0,13%) — Down slightly (-0.02%), the Communication Services sector is mixed.

$MSFT (-0,03%) — Up slightly (0.02%), the stock is essentially flat.

$QBTS (+16,63%) — Down (-0.53%), the quantum sector is actively correcting.

$RGTI (-1,06%) — Down (-0.51%), in line with the broader *new techcorrection.

$TSM (+0,6%) — Up (0.80%), showing strong resilience and helping to support the chip sector.

$RR. (-0,16%) — Down slightly (-0.06%), the Industrial/Aerospace stock is mixed.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,02%) — Up slightly (0.06%), essentially flat, following the mixed tech trend.

$BABA (+3,86%) — Down (-1.99%), experiencing a clear drop, reflecting heavy selling in Chinese stocks.

$CVNA (+4,36%) — Down slightly (-0.06%), losing ground.

$SHOP (+2,85%) — Down (-0.64%), retail tech is under pressure.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0,99%) — Up slightly (0.01%), holding up better than the general market.

$HIMS (+2,06%) — Stable (0.00%), in line with the cautious mood.

$INSM (-0,72%) — Stable (0.00%), the biotech sector is mixed.

🇪🇺 Europe & Industrials

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, exceeding initial caution (resilience driven by defensive sectors).

GER40 — Up, showing resilience.

$LDO (+1,34%) — Up slightly (0.38%), the defense sector is stable.

$IBE (+0,16%) — Up (0.53%), the utilities sector is in the green, showing defensive appeal.

$OKLO — Down (-0.56%), the new tech stock is experiencing profit-taking.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$UCG (+0,96%) — Up slightly (0.13%), Italian banks are mixed.

$ISP (+0,57%) — Up slightly (0.16%), showing a modest gain.

$BAMI (+0,91%)
$CE (+0,53%) , $BPE (-1,77%) — BPER Banca ($BPE.MI$) is in a massive rally (6.55%), strongly counter-trending the sector; $CE.MI$ is up $1.36\%$.

$BBVA (-0,43%) — Down (-0.81%), showing clear pressure and vulnerability today.

$AXP (+0,98%) — Down (-0.26%), ahead of today's earnings report.

$V (+0,05%) — Down (-0.19%), following cautious sentiment in the payments sector.

$CS (+0,59%) — Up slightly (0.15%), the financial services sector is mixed.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close in a solid gain, with the Nikkei hitting $50,000$.

$KOSPI — Close mixed/stable, Korean tech holds up.

$HK50 — Up, the index is recovering.

$CHINA50 — Up, tracking positive global sentiment.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Down, the Euro loses ground as the Dollar recovers.

$GBPUSD — Down, the Pound is under pressure.

$USDJPY — Solidly up, the Yen is falling as the Dollar makes a strong recovery.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is moving sharply higher, breaking the risk-on sentiment.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0,34%) — Stable (0.00%), gold is pausing after yesterday's correction.

$CDE (-0,31%) — Stable (0.00%), following the gold correction.

$BRENT — Down slightly, oil drops to a 5-month low.

$WTI — Losing ground, in line with Brent.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,83%) — Down, crypto is undergoing a significant correction.

$ETH (+1,43%) — Down, following Bitcoin.

$TRX (+3,39%) — Down, the altcoin sector is negative.

$CRO (+0,98%) — Down, in line with overall negative sentiment.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+5,26%) — Up (2.75%), strong counter-trend move in high-beta growth stocks.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Market Divergence

The key theme today is divergence. US indices futures are soft, but specific European stocks are surging (BPER Banca is up over $6\%$) in a massive counter-trend move, highlighting local corporate strength despite global caution. The New Tech sector is mixed: $TSM$ is surprisingly up, while $NVDA$ is slightly down. The Dollar ($DXY$) continues its strength, penalizing risk assets like Bitcoin ($BTC$), while Utilities ($IBE.MC$) and specific banks demonstrate insulation. Today is a major test with $NFLX and $LMT reporting.

For daily real-time market insights, *deep dives*, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures indicate a decisive surge, with the market attempting to recover losses from last week's banking sell-off.

$DJ30 — Futures in a solid rise, showing generalized risk-on sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Futures are strongly up, with tech leading the market rebound.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+1,16%) — Up (0.55%), the stock is leading the semiconductor sector, confirming strong AI demand.

$GOOGL (+1,25%) — Up (0.19%), the stock joins the positive Nasdaq trend.

$AVGO (+2,3%) — Up (0.53%), the semiconductor sector benefits from renewed optimism.

$META (+0,13%) — Up (0.48%), showing a strong recovery after recent weakness.

$MSFT (-0,03%) — Up (0.36%), the stock regains momentum with positive sentiment.

$QBTS (+16,63%) — Strongly up, quantum computing sentiment has turned positive amid the tech rebound.

$RGTI (-1,06%) — Up sharply (3.08%), the quantum sector actively participates in the risk-on move.

$TSM (+0,6%) — Up sharply (2.43%), boosted by optimism in the semiconductor sector.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,02%) — Up (0.80%), strong pre-market recovery, led by tech.

$BABA (+3,86%) — Down (-0.57%), counter-trending Western tech, affected by Asian uncertainties.

$CVNA (+4,36%) — Up (0.57%), the stock gains ground following the broader market trend.

$SHOP (+2,85%) — Solidly up, retail tech is driven by the general risk-on mood.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0,99%) — Up, tracking the general market rebound.

$HIMS (+2,06%) — Stable (0.00%), the stock is steady after last week's volatility.

$INSM (-0,72%) — Stable (0.00%), the biotech sector cautiously joins the rally.

🇪🇺 Europe

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, in line with global optimism.

GER40 — Decisively higher, the German market regains momentum.

$LDO (+1,34%) — Stable (0.00%), the defense sector is neutral in this rebound phase.

$$IBE (+0,16%) — Stable (0.00%), utilities are static in a risk-on environment.

$OKLO — Up sharply (1.73%), advanced nuclear technology continues its positive trend.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$$UCG (+0,96%) — Stable (0.00%), Italian banks are trying to establish a base after heavy selling.

$$ISP (+0,57%) — Stable (0.00%), awaiting clearer signals.

$$BAMI (+0,91%) , $CE (+0,53%) , $BPE (-1,77%) — Stable (0.00%), the financial sector shows caution despite the risk-on trend.

$$BBVA (-0,43%) — Stable (0.00%), the Spanish stock is leading the European banking recovery.

$AXP (+0,98%) — Up (0.59%), the payments sector participates in the rebound.

$V (+0,05%) — Up (0.07%), confirming its positive tone.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close in a solid rise, led by optimism in tech markets.

$KOSPI — Close up, Korean tech drives the index.

$HK50 — Up, tech stocks recover despite BABA's uncertainties.

$CHINA50 — Up, following positive global sentiment.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Up, the Dollar is losing momentum in a risk-on phase.

$GBPUSD — Up, the market positively assesses prospects for a stronger economy.

$USDJPY — Down, the Yen is gaining ground.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is showing clear weakness.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0,34%) — Down slightly (0.00%), gold consolidates as investors shift to riskier assets.

$CDE (-0,31%) — Stable (0.00%), tracking the flat movement of gold.

$BRENT — Up, showing signs of demand recovery.

$WTI — Gaining ground, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0,54%) — Tracking $SPX500$ futures higher.

$VGT (+1,21%) — Up (0.00%), reflecting the strength of the technology sector.

$$CSNDX (+0,88%) — Up (0.00%), tracking Nasdaq futures in positive territory.

$BND (-0,31%) — Down (0.00%), reflecting rising yields.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,83%) — Strong recovery, the crypto sector bounces off the bottom and gains ground.

$ETH (+1,43%) — Solidly up, following Bitcoin.

$TRX (-0,83%) — Up (0.00%), the altcoin sector participates in the rally.

$CRO (+0,98%) — Up, in line with overall positive sentiment.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+5,26%) — Up, sentiment for growth stocks suggests a rebound.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Return of Risk-On

The week opens with a decisive "Risk-On" mood. Markets are clearly shrugging off (for now) last week's banking tensions, focusing instead on tech-led growth ($NVDA, $TSM$) and hopes for monetary easing. The strong rally in cryptocurrencies ($BTC, $ETH$) and the weakness of the Dollar ($DXY$) are clear indicators that liquidity is flowing back into riskier assets. European banks ($BBVA.MC$) and the semiconductor sector show unexpected strength, while gold ($GLD$) pauses, confirming the shift in focus from systemic risk to growth opportunities.

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures are moving in a decisive drop, indicating a strong negative open due to renewed regional bank stress.

$DJ30 — Futures in a sharp decline, dragged down by financial and cyclical stocks.

$NSDQ100 — Futures are markedly lower, with weakness in tech stocks solidifying.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+1,16%) — Up in pre-market, holding strong against the general weakness thanks to robust AI demand.

$GOOGL (+1,14%) — Under strong pressure, aligned with the overall Nasdaq decline.

$AVGO (+2,3%) — Aggressive profit-taking in the semiconductor sector.

$META (+0,13%) — Stable in pre-market, showing relative strength against its peers.

$MSFT (-0,03%) — Slight dip, following the market's bearish trend.

$QBTS (+16,63%) — Down again, volatility remains extreme in this sector.

$RGTI (-1,06%) — Down, the quantum computing sector is highly sensitive to the risk-off mood.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (+1,02%) — Down in pre-market, negative sentiment weighs on consumer confidence.

$BABA (+3,86%) — Stable, counter-trending thanks to Asian positive sentiment.

$CVNA (+4,36%) — Down, the stock struggles to find a stable support base.

$SHOP (+2,85%) — Correcting some of its recent gains.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0,99%) — Stable/Up slightly, the defensive sector offers timid refuge.

$HIMS (+2,06%) — Profit-taking in pre-market despite recent catalysts.

$INSM (-0,72%) — Mixed, the biotech sector moves disconnectedly, but with caution.

🇪🇺 Europe

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, boosted by defensive sectors and positive earnings reports.

GER40 — Up slightly, showing resilience despite US banking worries.

$LDO.MI — Up, the defense sector continues to outperform.

$IBE.MC — Stable, utilities confirm their defensive asset status.

$OKLO — Stable, the nuclear tech stock awaits concrete catalysts.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$$UCG (+0,96%) — Under strong pressure, the financial sector is generally affected by contagion fears.

$$ISP (+0,57%) — Markedly lower, negative sentiment dominates.

$$BAMI (+0,91%)
$CE (+0,53%) , $BPE (-1,77%) — Widespread selling on Italian banks.

$$BBVA (-0,43%) — In strong increase, counter-trending the sector due to positive corporate news or insulation from US regional bank stress.

$AXP (+0,98%) — Down in pre-market, facing consumer slowdown concerns.

$V (+0,05%) — Essentially flat, confirms its more defensive status.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close down, weighed by Wall Street losses and trade uncertainty.

$KOSPI — Close flat/slightly down, the market remains in a holding pattern.

$HK50 — Sharp fall, due to regional bank pressures and China's plenum anticipation.

$CHINA50 — Weak, caution dominates.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Down, the Euro loses ground against the haven Dollar.

$GBPUSD — Down, the Pound is under pressure.

$USDJPY — Falling sharply, the Yen is rallying as the Dollar loses momentum on Fed rate-cut hopes.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is showing strength, acting as a safe haven.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0,34%) — Strong rally, gold hits new record highs on strong safe-haven demand.

$CDE (-0,31%) — Up sharply, following the explosive trend of gold.

$BRENT — Down slightly, global demand fears persist.

$WTI — Losing ground, affected by negative macroeconomic sentiment.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0,54%) — Tracks the negative S&P 500 futures.

$VGT (+1,21%) — Down, reflecting weakness in the technology sector.

$CSNDX (+0,88%) — Tracks Nasdaq futures in negative territory.

$VWCE (+0,53%) — Stable/Down, reflects the mixed global trend.

$BND (-0,31%) — Up, as bond yields fall due to safe-haven demand.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+0,83%) — Down slightly, aligned with the general risk-off mood.

$ETH (+1,43%) — Following Bitcoin, showing broad weakness.

$CRO (+0,98%) — Flat/Down slightly, in line with the rest of the market.

$TRX (+3,39%) — Down slightly, the sector struggles to find significant support.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+5,26%) — Weak in pre-market, aligning with other growth stocks.

🔎 Deep Dive: Gold & Banking Stress

The day is polarized: the strong safe-haven demand for Gold ($GLD) is the dominant theme, hitting new all-time highs due to persistent US regional bank stress. While European markets, specifically $BBVA.MC, show resilience and an isolated uptrend, the US futures and Italian financial stocks are struggling. The overall takeaway is a heightened sense of systemic risk, forcing investors into traditional havens while penalizing US high-beta stocks. The strength of $NVDA remains a key structural theme resisting the general decline.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

🔝 Stocks that made a new 52-week high today: $VTI (+0,63%)
$SPY (+0,56%)
$IVV (+0,53%)
$QQQ
$BTI (+1,71%)
$IWF (+0,79%)
$VUG (+0,76%)
$NOC (+1,54%)
$EFA
$IEMG (+0,73%)
$XLK
$LYG
$GBTC
$ALNY (-0,42%)
$ITOT (+0,65%)
$IWB (+0,57%)
$RMD (-0,44%)
$CVNA (+4,36%)
$EBAY (+0,13%)
$EEM
$XYL (+1,31%)
$VEU (+0,47%)
$VV (+0,54%)
$WDC (+4,08%)
$VGK (+0,52%)
$INSM (-0,72%)
$XLI
$IWV (+0,6%)
$EWJ (-0,07%)
$EVRG (-1,06%)
$IUSG
$IVW
$XLU
$NVT
$ITT (+2,69%)
$LECO (+0,97%)
$SPYG
$OEF (+0,47%)
$SLV
$APPF (+0,29%)
#52weekHigh

$CVNA (+4,36%)

🔹 Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +38% YoY

🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟢; Margin: 11.5% 🟢

🔹 Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟢

Q2'25 Outlook

🔹 Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA

🔹 Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics

Q1 Operational Highlights

🔸 All-time record in Retail Units Sold

🔸 Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA

🔸 Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years

Strategic Long-Term Target

🔹 New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years

CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia

🔸 “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”

🔸 “We are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”

$CVNA (+4,36%)

🔹 Revenue: $3.55B (Est. $3.37B) 🟢; UP +46% YoY

🔹 Net Income: $159M (Est. $123M) 🟢; Net Income Margin: 4.5%

FY25 Guidance:

🔹 Expects significant growth in both Retail Units Sold and Adjusted EBITDA

🔹 Sequential growth anticipated in Q1 2025 for both Retail Units and Adjusted EBITDA

Segment Performance:

🔹 Retail Units Sold: 114,379 (Est. 108,000) 🟢; UP +50% YoY

Key Financial Metrics:

🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $359M (Est. $335M) 🟢; Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 10.1%

🔹 GAAP Operating Income: $260M vs. $110M in Q4 2023 🟢

🔹 Net Income Margin: 4.5% (Est. 3.7%) 🟢

Business Highlights:

🔸 Achieved record profitability, becoming the most profitable public automotive retailer in U.S. history by Adjusted EBITDA margin.

🔸 Delivered industry-leading retail unit growth of 50% YoY in Q4 and 33% YoY for the full year.

🔸 Achieved record Net Income Margin of 3.0% and Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 10.1% for the full year.

CEO Ernie Garcia’s Commentary:

🔸 "In 2024, Carvana became the most profitable public automotive retailer in US history as measured by Adjusted EBITDA margin while also resuming industry-leading growth. With just ~1% market share today and many opportunities to improve and expand our offering, we know this is just the beginning of our journey to change the way people buy and sell cars."

Strategic Outlook:

🔸 Focused on increasing market share from the current ~1% by expanding service offerings.

🔸 Continued emphasis on profitability improvements and enhancing customer experience in 2025.

🔸 Targeting significant growth in both Retail Units Sold and Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025.

$CVNA (+4,36%)

"We believe the major Carvana-specific fundamental concern highlighted in Hindenburg Research’s report is the unrealistic GPU, particularly Other GPU and related practices around related party transactions for loan sales and warranties. Another key issue appears to be a broader concern around industry auto loan defaults and delinquencies.

The report rests on four key points:

1) Solvency risk and potential business disruption from a pullback in loan purchases by ALLY (covered by JPM analyst Richard Shane) due to deteriorating auto credit performance.

2) An alleged lax credit underwriting model, related party loan servicing, and an elevated mix of loan extensions supposedly cushioning the bottom line.

3) Risks from related party transactions involving warranty sales commissions, inventory off-loading, and loan sales.

4) Alleged window-dressing in cost allocation across GP and SG&A, as well as concerns about degrading vehicle reconditioning standards and potential undisclosed SEC investigations.

Our own analysis (see deep dives from Feb 2022 and Oct 2019) has not flagged red flags, particularly regarding gain on sale accounting and the underlying FCF generated by the business. However, we believe CVNA could benefit from providing more disclosure around gain on sale economics at partners and related FCF dynamics.

Concerns around broader auto industry defaults and losses are legitimate, but not new, with the rate of change improving as the industry moves past problematic originations from 2021/2022, inflation stabilizes, used car prices level off, and unemployment remains steady.

Ultimately, we encourage investors to focus on EBITDA/unit and FCF rather than non-GAAP GPU/SG&A metrics, and we do not view CVNA’s reported economics as inflated. This report addresses unit economics, lending, and warranty revenue, along with relevant data and charts."