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#52weekHigh

$CVNA (-4,49%)

🔹 Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +38% YoY

🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟢; Margin: 11.5% 🟢

🔹 Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟢

Q2'25 Outlook

🔹 Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA

🔹 Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics

Q1 Operational Highlights

🔸 All-time record in Retail Units Sold

🔸 Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA

🔸 Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years

Strategic Long-Term Target

🔹 New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years

CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia

🔸 “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”

🔸 “We are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”

$CVNA (-4,49%)

🔹 Revenue: $3.55B (Est. $3.37B) 🟢; UP +46% YoY

🔹 Net Income: $159M (Est. $123M) 🟢; Net Income Margin: 4.5%

FY25 Guidance:

🔹 Expects significant growth in both Retail Units Sold and Adjusted EBITDA

🔹 Sequential growth anticipated in Q1 2025 for both Retail Units and Adjusted EBITDA

Segment Performance:

🔹 Retail Units Sold: 114,379 (Est. 108,000) 🟢; UP +50% YoY

Key Financial Metrics:

🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $359M (Est. $335M) 🟢; Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 10.1%

🔹 GAAP Operating Income: $260M vs. $110M in Q4 2023 🟢

🔹 Net Income Margin: 4.5% (Est. 3.7%) 🟢

Business Highlights:

🔸 Achieved record profitability, becoming the most profitable public automotive retailer in U.S. history by Adjusted EBITDA margin.

🔸 Delivered industry-leading retail unit growth of 50% YoY in Q4 and 33% YoY for the full year.

🔸 Achieved record Net Income Margin of 3.0% and Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 10.1% for the full year.

CEO Ernie Garcia’s Commentary:

🔸 "In 2024, Carvana became the most profitable public automotive retailer in US history as measured by Adjusted EBITDA margin while also resuming industry-leading growth. With just ~1% market share today and many opportunities to improve and expand our offering, we know this is just the beginning of our journey to change the way people buy and sell cars."

Strategic Outlook:

🔸 Focused on increasing market share from the current ~1% by expanding service offerings.

🔸 Continued emphasis on profitability improvements and enhancing customer experience in 2025.

🔸 Targeting significant growth in both Retail Units Sold and Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2025.

$CVNA (-4,49%)

"We believe the major Carvana-specific fundamental concern highlighted in Hindenburg Research’s report is the unrealistic GPU, particularly Other GPU and related practices around related party transactions for loan sales and warranties. Another key issue appears to be a broader concern around industry auto loan defaults and delinquencies.

The report rests on four key points:

1) Solvency risk and potential business disruption from a pullback in loan purchases by ALLY (covered by JPM analyst Richard Shane) due to deteriorating auto credit performance.

2) An alleged lax credit underwriting model, related party loan servicing, and an elevated mix of loan extensions supposedly cushioning the bottom line.

3) Risks from related party transactions involving warranty sales commissions, inventory off-loading, and loan sales.

4) Alleged window-dressing in cost allocation across GP and SG&A, as well as concerns about degrading vehicle reconditioning standards and potential undisclosed SEC investigations.

Our own analysis (see deep dives from Feb 2022 and Oct 2019) has not flagged red flags, particularly regarding gain on sale accounting and the underlying FCF generated by the business. However, we believe CVNA could benefit from providing more disclosure around gain on sale economics at partners and related FCF dynamics.

Concerns around broader auto industry defaults and losses are legitimate, but not new, with the rate of change improving as the industry moves past problematic originations from 2021/2022, inflation stabilizes, used car prices level off, and unemployment remains steady.

Ultimately, we encourage investors to focus on EBITDA/unit and FCF rather than non-GAAP GPU/SG&A metrics, and we do not view CVNA’s reported economics as inflated. This report addresses unit economics, lending, and warranty revenue, along with relevant data and charts."

$CVNA (-4,49%)

Hindenburg Research alleges Carvana inflated financials through $800M in loan sales to a suspected related party, lax underwriting, and undisclosed SEC investigations.

The report highlights Carvana's reliance on subprime loans, "sham" related-party deals with DriveTime, and inflated gross profit metrics.

Hindenburg warns of solvency risks, as insiders have dumped billions in stock while the company faces mounting debt and economic headwinds.

Full Report: https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/

$CVNA (-4,49%) | Carvana Q3'24 Earnings Highlights:

🔹 EPS: $0.64 (Est. $0.29) 🟢

🔹 Revenue: $3.66B (Est. $3.45B) 🟢; UP +32% YoY

🔹 Retail Units Sold: 108,651; UP +34% YoY

Outlook:

🔹 Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA: Expected to be "significantly above" prior guidance of $1.0B - $1.2B 🟢

🔹 Retail Units: Expects sequential increase in YoY growth rate

🔹 Operational Focus: Continued emphasis on efficiency and enhancing customer experience

🔹 Market Conditions: Assumes stable environment

Key Financial Metrics:

🔹 Net Income Margin: 4.0%

🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $429M (Record)

🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 11.7% (Record and industry best)

🔹 Market Share: ~1% of total used car market

Business Highlights:

🔸 Vertically Integrated Business Model: Driving profitability and growth

🔸 ADESA Network Integration: Improving operational efficiency

🔸 National Footprint: Supporting growth and cost reductions

🔸 Wholesale Platform Performance: Strong results contributing to profitability

🔸 Present in Over 300 U.S. Markets

CEO Ernie Garcia's Commentary:

🔸 "Carvana's exceptional results underscore our position as the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer. Our progress in Q3 further highlights the strength of our vertically integrated business model and also begins to demonstrate the power of our unique infrastructure, including the ADESA network."

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