The second month of 2025 is already over. Time is flying by again at breakneck speed and one event or statement follows the next this year. It's crazy what's going on at the moment and at the same time the market is somehow saying "I don't care".

Up down, up down, the markets are becoming more volatile and yet, or precisely because of this, my February was almost at +/-0.

But one thing at a time.

In February I achieved a plus of 0.8%. With my portfolio size, this corresponds to a value of almost €900. Not particularly good compared to the Dax (+3.77%), but still very respectable compared to the HSBC MSCI World (-2.49%).

Unfortunately, things do not look any better over the year (YTD).

The Dax is running away with 13.3%, while the MSCI World is bobbing along at 1.6%. Here, too, I was at least able to beat the World, but I still lag miles behind the DAX.

Overall, however, I am still very satisfied. As I don't have a lot of tech in my portfolio and my stocks are (mostly) rather stable, there is often no outperformance of the stocks and if there is, it is only marginal.

My high and low performers in February were (top 3):

$HSY (-1,95%) Hershey +15.63%

$T (-6,7%) AT&T +14.07%

$NESN (-3,88%) Nestle +13.10%

$ADM (-8,23%) Archer Daniels -8.57%

$UNH (-2%) United Health -13.16%

$TSLA (-9,97%) Tesla -27.59%

Dividends:

In February, I received a net €123.62 from a total of 10 distributions.

Compared to February 2024 (€99.26), this was an increase of 24.54%

Investments:

Due to the construction work on the house last year, the focus continues to be on building up the nest egg and saving up a "leisure account" again, as everything was really used up completely last year and only the custody account remained.

The savings plans will of course continue unabated, but individual investments are probably not possible for the time being.

Purchases and sales:

I have parted with Mercedes ( $MBG (-5,9%) ) and Medical Properties ( $MPW (-8,06%) ).

I then added to Lockheed Martin ( $LMT (-3,69%) ), Hershey ( $HSY (-1,95%) ) and Petroleo Brasileiro ( $PETR4 (-6,79%) ).

My savings plans remain unchanged, but it is quite possible that I will stop them for the time being in order to build up investment cash again.

Savings plans (350€ in total):

• Realty ($O (-2,42%) )
• STAG Industrial ($STAG (-3,66%) )
• Gladstone Invest ($GAIN (-5,03%) )
• Hercules Capital ($HTGC (-5,99%) )
• Cintas ($CTAS (-6,69%) )
• LVMH ($MC (-4,14%) )
• Monster Beverage ($MNST (-3,46%) )
• Microsoft ($MSFT (-2,36%) )

Goals 2025:

My goal is to have €130,000 in my portfolio at the end of the year. The goal is to be achieved by reinvesting the dividend, making payments and, of course, increasing the share price. The share price increase is of course impossible to predict in any way, so the motto is: if the share price falls or does not rise enough, more cash is needed.

This comes from selling useless stuff on eBay, additional income from e.g. "neighborhood help" etc. The worse the share price, the more additional cash has to be raised.

Target achievement at the end of February 2025: 37.41%

So I'm on the right track (so far). I'm curious to see what else will happen in 2025 and hope that the crash, which seems to be getting closer and closer, will take a little longer (so that I can continue to accumulate cash).

How was your February? Are you happy so far? I think that, due to the volatility, the portfolios in February are far more spread out than they were in January or even at the end of last year.

The current hype surrounding AI is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble, but above all the era of the Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) in the late 1990s. CLECs were new telecommunications providers that emerged after the deregulation of the US market in order to compete with established providers such as $T (-6,7%) competition. They expanded aggressively, raising billions in investor money and shaping the dotcom bubble, but later failed spectacularly due to over-indebtedness and lack of profitability.

Today, the AI sector is attracting similar attention: high valuations, a race to expand infrastructure and euphoric growth forecasts dominate the news. But despite superficial parallels, there are crucial differences in profitability, demand dynamics and financial stability.

What do AI & CLECs have in common?

• As was the case with CLECs back then, we are now seeing extreme valuations for AIs. $NVDA (-7,25%) For example, AI is trading at a P/E of over 70, similar to the 200x sales valuation of Level 3 Communications in 1999.
• The AI sector is currently attracting billions, comparable to the USD 30 billion raised by CLECs up to 2000. Goldman Sachs forecasts 200 Mrd. USD globale KI-Investitionen bis 2025.
• AI companies are under pressure to massively expand infrastructure, while prices for cloud services are falling. This is reminiscent of the CLECs that inflated infrastructure despite falling phone rates.

Why AI is different

In the current valuation, the AI industry is fundamentally different from CLECs.

While $MSFT (-2,36%) or$GOOG (-2,49%) are profitable with stable operating margins of over 40%, CLECs operated at a loss at the time, i.e. their business model was largely limited to the costly reselling of standardized telecom services without added value. The AI sector is also much more financially disciplined. Big tech companies have debt ratios below 15% and have high cash reserves, whereas CLECs were up to 70% in debt and ultimately went under in the wave of mass bankruptcies around 2001.

A decisive difference also lies in the demand dynamics. AI tech is now used across industries, from precise drug development in the pharmaceutical industry to route optimization in logistics. This real, scalable demand contrasts with the CLECs, which built infrastructure for speculative customer groups that never materialized.

Then there is the innovative edge. Proprietary chips (such as Googles TPUs or Nvidias GPUs) and other software solutions create technological competitive advantages. CLECs, on the other hand, only offered standardized telecom services that hardly differentiated themselves.

There is also a paradigm shift in risk management. Companies like Meta are investing specifically in projects with a clear ROI focus instead of using debt for oversized and ultimately useless infrastructure projects like CLECs. This strategic agility underlines the maturity of today's tech industry compared to the dotcom era.

No dotcom 2.0

In my view, the AI boom is is not a bubblebut a structural change. The combination of real demand, financial stability and technological added value makes AI fundamentally different from CLECs.

#at&t $T (-6,7%)

📌 Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. While I endeavor to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the content. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. I am not liable for any loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on my content. I am not a tax advisor. I am not an investment advisor.

Hi folks,

after my last short presentation on British American Tobacco was so well received, the next short presentation follows today: AT&T's figures for Q4, which were published yesterday on 25.02.25. I look forward to your feedback🙂 Here we go!

📌 Who is AT&T anyway?

AT&T is one of the largest telecommunications companies in the world and is a relatively established player, especially in the USA. Founded in 1885, the company has established itself over the decades as one of the leading providers of mobile communications, broadband internet and business solutions.

Following its failed expansion into the media business (including the acquisition of Time Warner, which was later reversed), AT&T is now focusing fully on its core areas again:

✔ Mobile communications (5G expansion & growth in the postpaid segment)

Fiber Internet (expansion of the broadband network in the USA)

✔ Enterprise solutions & network infrastructure

The expansion of 5G and fiber optics in particular is seen as a growth opportunity for AT&T in order to hold its own against competitors such as Verizon and T-Mobile in the highly competitive US market in the long term. But do the latest figures indicate that this strategy is really working? I'll take a look at the Q4 results.

📊 Selected financial highlights

✔ Revenue: USD 32.3 billion (+0.9% YoY)

✔ Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): USD 0.54 (stable vs. Q4 2023)

✔ Free cash flow: USD 4.8 bn (solid figures, no negative surprises)

The increase in revenue shows that AT&T is holding up well despite a highly competitive market. Particularly pleasing: free cash flow remains strong - possibly a good sign for the company's dividend policy, which in my opinion has kept me on board, especially in the weaker times in terms of share price.

📡 Mobile communications - How is the growth? Will it continue?

✅ Postpaid customer growth: +482,000 (forecast was 443,000)

✅ Mobile service revenue: USD 16.6 billion (+3.3% YoY)

✅ ARPU (average revenue per customer): Stable growth

Conclusion: Customers remain loyal to AT&T and the company can continue to benefit from 5G demand. The figures here exceed analysts' estimates!

🌐 Broadband & fiber - The future of AT&T?

🚀 Fiber customer growth: +307,000 (a strong sign of further growth)

📈 Broadband revenue (residential customers): USD 2.9 billion (+7.8% YoY)

AT&T's fiber optic offensive is paying off. While traditional TV and telephone products continue to lose relevance, AT&T is creating a future-proof source of income here.

🔮 Looking ahead - What can we expect in 2025?

📌 Service revenue: growth in the low single-digit percentage range expected

EBITDA: +3% or more

📌 Free cash flow: expected to remain stable or increase slightly

Focus remains on 5G and fiber optics, combined with cost efficiency measures Management expects continued profitable growth - no revolution, but solid progress.

📢 Conclusion - AT&T a buy?

AT&T delivers a strong quarter. Especially the cash flow and customer growth in mobile & broadband are positive. The stock remains interesting for me, but the challenges posed by the expansion of 5G and fiber optics remain a relevant task with a black box character in my view.

❌🙅 What I don't like about AT&T

Basically, this development seems positive to me for the time being, but mmn there are definitely reasons for the hole AT&T is coming out of. One of the main points is the debt. Yes, I know - isn't that a standard problem? Yes and no. With regard to AT&T, there is the problem that the 5G expansion requires a lot of investment volume, roughly speaking, which must be spent on fiber optic expansion. If there are already liabilities to a greater extent, these expansions may be limited in their speed for the purpose of refinancing and the Internet debt brake. Moreover, AT&T is not alone - Verizon and Telekom US are also well-known players in the market and are threatening to breathe down the neck of AT&T, a relatively well-known player. These points are part of the problem with AT&T's current situation and, in my opinion, put these results into perspective to some extent.

📊 How do you see AT&T? Is the stock interesting for you or rather a boring investment? Leave your opinion in the comments!

👍 - AT&T interesting

😁 - No thanks you

Your Bass-T

Sources

(1)https://seekingalpha.com/article/4761575-at-and-t-time-to-take-money-off-the-table

(2)https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADpZDSAq0l5SBHZ23g9U3u_e1QCqcVANLJ1E64CxYaEPezAE4EmXgRTX3lEckQ9hw5lWq-NVuOujHg4gEIsPWrmUB_f0lW1cZuYP2L_ReFST04aZzv4DiiaVcOPET5nYvcOQdd2SJI4ySobIJ7M6otXQ0yVhN7feEHmWsB6ygAfN

(3)https://investors.att.com

(4)https://www.boerse-express.com/news/articles/att-aktie-positive-vibes-am-markt-724335

Hello everyone 🤘🏻👨🏻‍💻,

I have recently realized that my portfolio is not sufficiently focused on dividend stocks. I would therefore like to change this now and look forward to your recommendations! 📈💰

I currently have a few stocks on my watchlist that I'm taking a closer look at:

$XOM (-6,83%)

$EOAN (-6,15%)

$SHEL (-7,19%)

$ALV (-8,43%)

$MUV2 (-6,68%)

$T (-6,7%)

$CVX (-8,09%)

$TTE (-6,71%)

I'm also looking a little more closely at oil stocks at the moment, as "Drill, baby, drill" ~ Donald Trump is back in vogue.👆🏻

Which dividend stocks do you have in your portfolio or on your watchlist? I am curious! 🤘🏻🤓

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (-6,2%)
Intel $INTC (-10,9%)
Salesforce $CRM (-5,08%)
Alphabet $GOOG (-2,49%) and Meta $META (-4,44%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-7,33%)
Macy's $M (+0,68%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (-2,48%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-5,9%)
and AT&T $T (-6,7%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (-1,81%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (-5,91%)
or Xylem $XYL (-4,99%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+7,09%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-8,43%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-6,28%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (-4,7%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (-2,35%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-10,71%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (-4,71%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (-7,25%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (-4,59%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-8,16%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends