Fugro (FUR) — Dislocated Price, Asymmetric Upside
Fugro’s heavy correction has pushed the stock to levels that imply long-term stagnation, despite fundamentals that contradict that narrative. The company delivered €2.28B revenue and €161M FCF in 2024, maintains a strengthened balance sheet (net debt ~€437M) and targets 6–9% FCF margin and 11–15% EBIT margin by 2027. Current pricing values Fugro at barely 5–6× normalized FCF, far below peers in geo-services and marine engineering.
The withdrawn 2025 guidance triggered capitulation, but project timing, not demand, caused the downgrade. Structural drivers remain intact: offshore wind build-out, subsea infrastructure, coastal protection and energy transition surveys. A return to mid-term margins supports intrinsic values in the €10–16 range versus a market price near €8.
As a small portfolio position, the risk is bounded while upside is significant. Fugro’s selloff is mispricing delayed revenue as lost value — a clear technical opportunity for investors who size smartly and wait for cash flow normalization.
