What is your assessment of this $BTC cycle?

I would be interested to know when you think the current Bitcoin cycle will peak and whether altcoins will peak at the same time

My guess:

Scenario 1:

In the past, the highs were on

- 29.11.2013

- 17.12.2017

- 10.11.2021

-》November - December 2025

I can well imagine that we will see the peak price a little earlier -》October 2025. For the October - December scenario, I see a probability of ~60%

Scenario 2:

We see a recession in the US before Q4 2025, as bitcoin has not seen a real recession in its history other than the corona crash it is not possible to say for sure how much of an impact something like this would have on the $BTC (-0,5%) but most likely the recession would prevail against seasonality and we would peak earlier than in previous cycles, I think we will see a recession in the US, but of course I don't know if it will really happen and when, but for the scenario that we see a recession before Q4 2025, I rate with a probability of ~30%

The remaining 10% is for everything else that could happen.

I also think that the majority of altcoins peak at the same time, but as always there are outliers here.

Have I overlooked a much more likely scenario or am I completely wrong, what is your assessment?