3Mes·

My goal, your opinion

Greetings,


I generally don't think much of posts on feeds from any media, as they don't bring me any added value but merely serve to present myself. Now that I have followed the publications and reactions a bit, I think I have seen more than less constructive members here.


For this reason, I have decided to make the first post of my life here. It's not directly about sums, I just want to ask for your assessment of my savings plan and target allocation. Constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement are expressly welcome.


The whole thing is intended to reflect a core-satellite strategy with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.


Global diversification (core) - 60%:



Individual securities (satellites) - max. 20%:



Buffer (security) - approx. 20%:


Raw materials:


Bonds:


Real estate:


My thought process should be clear. The core should cover global performance with a percentage distribution based on economic strength. Separately, the World Health Care ETF, as people are getting older and sicker and, in my opinion, the healthcare sector is not so strongly represented in the other ETFs.


For the satellites, my thought process is as follows:

Berkshire can be seen as an ETF and covers successful individual stocks.

Nothing works without energy, hence BWX (USA) and Iberdrola (Europe). I see digital security threatened by AI and the further development of data centers etc., hence CrowdStrike. Companies will always need good software to be able to expand and still keep track of things, hence HubSpot. In connection with AI and the armed conflicts in our world, I see drones as a future-oriented technology in all possible areas, hence AeroVironment. And I discovered Intellia as a medical catapult, which is admittedly a bit of a gamble, but always gets a lot of drugs into the test phase.


I don't think I need to say much about the buffers, as in my view these are the investments that remain stable or grow in difficult market phases when everything else is falling.


This gives you a little insight into my thinking and actions. Please don't tear it apart, I'm not a professional but I'm sacrificing some of my remaining free time to get a bit of an insight into the world of capital and maybe get a small slice.


I welcome any opinions and suggestions for improvement.


I wish everyone a successful week!


Best regards

Nils

9
19 Commenti

immagine del profilo
It's great that you dared to do it, that's what the community thrives on. 💪

About your portfolio:
It looks well-organized and well thought-out at first. The devil lies in various risks that you rarely see. I hope you're aware of them.

1. drawdown: Your portfolio has a certain risk on the currency side. Your ETFs are all unhedged, so your portfolio will lose significantly if the USD falls.

2. diversification: Most of your portfolio is highly correlated. I estimate >0.8, i.e. if one position falls, most of the others will fall too.

3. liquidity: Your portfolio essentially depends on the liquidity situation of the markets, especially the USA. There are already dark clouds on the horizon. If there is a liquidity squeeze, your portfolio will be defenseless.

4th strategy: You are only pursuing a single strategy, i.e. virtually no diversification on this side. B&H has done well for the last 15 years, 2000-2011 was terrible. I would diversify here.

Good luck!
10
Visualizza tutti 6 ulteriori risposte
immagine del profilo
Hello, I would take the Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF instead of the $XDWH. Personally, if I were to invest in commodities as a security, I would only buy them physically. And with a maximum of 5%, but of course that also depends on the personal investment risk.
2
immagine del profilo
I don't think your thoughts are bad in principle.

A lot of things have already been mentioned. Since I invest quite heavily in individual stocks, perhaps a few words on this.

You did mention why you find the shares interesting. But not how you classify their pricing.

Example: you have a well-run craft business with which you make a profit of €100,000 every year (simplified, inflation and other external factors such as the interest rate environment are completely ignored here).

As the owner, you have your €100,000 every year. However, you are thinking about reorienting yourself and want to sell the business. Someone comes along and offers you €800,000 (8 times the annual profit). Is that attractive and do you agree? What if someone were to offer you only €350,000 or €1.4 million (not at the same time of course, but all offers have to be decided individually).

I think you understand what I'm getting at. How do you determine that the companies you have selected (20% of your portfolio!) are well (favorably) priced?

Perhaps take a look at the long-term charts (from 1995 to today) of big names such as Oracle, IBM, Nokia, Blackberry, Allianz, etc.

If you buy at the wrong time, you may not make a profit for decades (!).

Take Allianz, for example:

Share price 12/1996: 125€
Price 04/2000: 360€
Price 03/2003: 53€
Course 06/2007: 163€
Course 11/2008: 47€
Course 11/2025: 362€

If you had entered in 2008, you would have made a very good deal. If you had bought in at the all-time high in 2000, you would not have made any price gains to date (at least the dividend would still have been on top). And that's with a holding period of 25 years - and that doesn't even take inflation into account.
2
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immagine del profilo
Very nice to read your first post. As you say, I'm not a professional investor, but I'm happy with your current strategy. Unfortunately, I can't give you any detailed information about other stocks. But I can wish you a lot of fun and success on the getquin platform, there are really very interesting posts and users here, where I always like to spend my time to see what ideas and strategies the others have.
1
@Divalo thanks for your reply :) nice to hear that I'm not the only amateur and that you actually think my strategy is okay. I've read a lot of interesting things here too, and always look forward to new input! I hope you achieve your goals :)
1
immagine del profilo
@_Barren_Wuffet_ Thank you my best I wish you the same
1
immagine del profilo
Nice portfolio, but the large dollar dependency would bother me. I would choose the S&P500 as a hedged version, e.g. SPXE or similar.
Secondly, there would be too little gold in it for me. I would invest at least 10-15%.
And finally, I would avoid real estate ETFs.
Good luck anyway 👍
immagine del profilo
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