Hello everyone ✌🏻
President Trump's recent announcements that tech giants will have to "pay their own way" for their electricity costs to reduce the burden on residential consumers have different implications for
Iris Energy (IREN)$IREN (+5,72%) and Nebius.$NBIS (-0,82%)
1 Impact on Iris Energy (IREN)
For IREN, this development tends to be positivebut with reservations:
- Competitive advantage through own infrastructure:IREN already owns massive, grid-connected capacity (approx. 2.9 GW in focus). As Trump demands that companies bear the costs of grid expansion themselves, the value of existing, approved sites such as those of IREN increases massively.
- Bargaining power: Big tech companies like Microsoft are now under pressure to find their own solutions that don't burden the public power grid. This makes IREN more attractive as a partner for "co-location" or cloud services, as they already have the necessary power infrastructure in place.
- Risk: If the new rules also affect smaller data centers or Bitcoin miners, the grid fees for IRENs could increase. So far, however, Trump has explicitly targeted the "big tech companies".
2. impact on Nebius
For Nebius, the situation is more ambivalent:
- Pressure on cloud providers: As a growing provider of AI infrastructure, Nebius could be affected by stricter regulations for "power-intensive" companies if they are perceived as part of the burden on the power grid.
- Dependence on partners: Nebius often operates in leased capacity or partnerships (e.g. with Microsoft or Oracle). If Microsoft needs to make "big changes" to internalize costs, those costs could be passed on to partners like Nebius.
- Opportunity through efficiency: Since Nebius specializes in highly efficient GPU clusters, they could benefit from a market where "power efficiency" becomes the most important cost factor.
Conclusion: Who benefits more?
- Iris Energy is better off in the short term in my view because it own the energy source/infrastructure infrastructure. In a world where access to electricity is becoming more expensive and politically difficult, IREN is a "landlord" in a market where supply is scarce.
- Nebius is, in my opinion, more of a user of the infrastructure. For them, Trump's statements mean potentially higher operating costs or the need to invest more quickly in their own off-grid energy sources.
