Today, Volkswagen announced another move that, at first glance, sounds anything but positive:
VW is terminating a large portion of its collective bargaining agreements at the end of the year—according to IG Metall, ten agreements are affected, including the framework collective bargaining agreement.
The reason: enormous cost pressure and a structurally changing auto market.
But this is exactly where it gets interesting for me as an investor.
Because VW isn’t just trying to ride out the current crisis. The company is completely restructuring itself.
What exactly is VW planning?
The new “Future Plan 2030” goes far beyond a traditional cost-cutting program.
Among other things, VW aims to:
• gradually reduce its model lineup by up to 50%
• reduce the complexity of its product lineup by up to 75%
• reduce production capacity to approximately 9 million vehicles per year •
• Further standardize platforms, software, and electronics
• Align investments and holdings more closely with returns and strategic value
• Better tailor development and production to regional markets.
At first glance, this sounds like a retreat.
But I also see it as an attempt to transform an extremely complex corporation back into a more efficient and profitable corporation .
And then comes what is perhaps the most important issue: China 🇨🇳
This also presents one of the greatest opportunities and one of the greatest risks.
VW saw slight overall growth outside of China in the first half of 2026.
China, on the other hand, remains a massive problem: The Chinese market is under heavy pressure for VW, and deliveries in China declined significantly in the first half of the year.
VW is therefore trying to partially reverse the traditional German development approach:
“In China, for China.”
To this end, VW is collaborating, among others, with XPeng .
The results are already evident:
The new ID. UNYX 09 was developed jointly with XPeng and is set to launch in China in late October 2026. The development time was reduced to about 24 months.
This is strategically interesting.
VW needs to move faster in China.
And that’s exactly what the company is trying to do now.
The next major lever: affordable electric cars
This is where Volkswagen could once again become a major player in Europe.
The new Electric Urban Car Family centered around the ID. Polo targets the mass-market segment.
And the initial figures are, to say the least, remarkable:
Over 70,000 orders for the new Electric Urban Car Family have already been reported within just a few weeks.
Order intake for all-electric vehicles in Europe rose by more than 50%.
To me, that’s one of the areas worth keeping a close eye on at VW right now.
Because if VW manages to profitably sell electric cars in the mass-market segment, perceptions of the company could change.
But now comes the inconvenient part
VW is still far from out of the woods.
The current forecast was significantly revised downward in September.
For 2026, Volkswagen now expects:
Revenue: approx. €315 billion
Operating profit margin: up to 1%
Net cash flow from automotive operations: €3–6 billion
Net liquidity, Automotive: €32–34 billion
Among the factors weighing particularly heavily on these figures are Porsche, China, and additional restructuring measures.
A non-cash impairment charge on Porsche goodwill alone amounts to approximately €6 billion.
As an investor, you definitely shouldn’t ignore this.
And then there’s the dividend
Also of interest to me as a dividend investor:
VW continues to pursue a payout ratio of at least 30%.
The following was decided for 2025:
€5.26 per preferred share
The payout ratio was around 39.2%.
But:
A high dividend yield alone does not make for a good investment.
If profits remain under pressure over the long term, the dividend may eventually come under pressure as well.
That’s why, for me, the crucial question wouldn’t be:
“How high is the dividend yield today?”
But rather:
“Will VW manage to sustainably improve its profitability again?”
That’s why I find $Volk particularly interesting
Not because VW is running perfectly right now.
But because the company is currently being forced to change.
And it’s precisely these kinds of phases that can be of interest to long-term investors— if the transformation works.
The next 2–3 years are therefore likely to be decisive.
For me, the $VOW (+0,44%) the question wouldn’t be:
“Is VW cheap today?”
But rather:
“What could this company be worth if VW actually gets its cost structure, China strategy, software, and electric mobility under control?”
That’s exactly what I’d be looking for in the next quarterly earnings report.
This is not a buy recommendation—just my personal observation and investment thesis.
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