$AVGO (-1,77%)
$CSPX (-1,15%)
$IWDA (-1,03%)
At the beginning of 2025 there was skepticism at Broadcom, in April there was panic and in the end we reached a new all-time high. The decisive success factor was not timing, but perseverance.
The majority is always wrong
Who would have thought at the beginning of 2025 that the S&P 500 would be around 1,000 points higher at the end of the year?
And who would have predicted a price of almost 7,000 for the end of the year in the middle of the April crash? The answer is: virtually no one.
At the beginning of the calendar year, a cautious mood prevailed on the global financial markets, characterized by the after-effects of tight monetary policy and general economic uncertainty.
Consensus expectations for the S&P 500 were moderate, with hardly any renowned experts predicting an increase of around a thousand index points within just twelve months.
Today, by the way, the opposite is true. Most banks and research houses are bullish and the majority are citing price targets of 7,500 - 8,000 points. These predictions are worth just as little as those of the previous year.
A lesson that investors should never forget
The price slump in April 2025 showed just how quickly the narrative can change. No one expected prices to rise at that point.
However, this was followed by a fabulous rally, which was only supported by a small proportion of investors. Aktien was supported.
A large part of the US market is still in no man's land today. Almost half of all shares are trading below the SMA200.
Rarely has the market been so torn apart. However, this is not without logic, as most of the S&P 500's earnings growth can be attributed to just a few companies.
Nvidia is currently outshining all other companies, but people forget that companies such as Alphabet or Broadcom, for example, have posted jumps in earnings of 32 and 40 %.
When these heavyweights - Broadcom is now one of the ten most valuable companies in the S&P 500 - make such leaps in profits, it moves the entire S&P 500. Index.
Broadcom as a prime example
And in many cases, the end of the line is far from being reached. Broadcom is likely to increase its profits significantly again this year.
This is why I have already commented positively on the company many times - years ago and long before the hype surrounding AI shares.
Most recently at a price of USD 179.45: Broadcom: Rekorde auf ganzer Linie
Since then, the share price has roughly doubled and Broadcom has achieved a 40% jump in profits to USD 6.82 per share.
Broadcom share: Chart from 07.01.2026, price: USD 343.77 - symbol: AVGO | Source: TWS
In the current financial year, earnings are expected to increase by a further 47% to USD 10.00 per share.
In view of the order situation and the increasing growth momentum and profitability, this seems plausible.
Broadcom therefore has a forward P/E of 34.4, which is not exactly low at first glance. But in view of the company's central position in the semiconductor industry and its enormous growth, it is justifiable.
This is all the more true if the momentum continues for a few more years, which can currently be assumed.
Buy & hold shines - as almost always
The big winners of this turbulent year, as in almost every year in stock market history, are the investors who have pursued a consistent buy-and-hold strategy.
This applies to Broadcom as well as to ETF buyers.
You have to be able to ignore the short-term fluctuations of the market and focus on the fundamentals and long-term performance.
While market timers statistically perform much worse, the patient investors benefited from the full recovery move. Those who got out during the April crash, in most cases, did not have the courage or the speed to get back in in time for the big rally.
Believe me, I know what I'm talking about. I was invested in Broadcom when the stock crashed to $138 last year and I still am today at $343.
Being able to withstand volatility is the price you have to pay.
The characteristic that decides everything
In the long term, the Börse is a mechanism that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Buy & Hold is based on the realization that indices such as the S&P 500 and the MSCI Worldare self-healing systems in which weak companies are continually replaced by high-growth successors.
In my view, the major indices are a bet on human progress and the innovative strength of the leading economies.
Investors who have understood this do not see volatility as Risikobut as a necessary price for above-average returns.
Ideally, they even recognize volatility as an opportunity and seize it.
The year 2025 has impressively demonstrated that even a double-digit price slump within one year is only one episode in an overarching upward trend. The discipline to remain invested despite negative headlines is the most important quality for long-term investment success.
The content of this article was created on 07.01.2026 at 10:49 am
Personally, I collected Broadcom in 2022 against the background of the then nice and constantly increasing dividend in connection with the semiconductor activity and increasing software focus with a savings plan during the crash and have let it run stubbornly ever since. Cost price today €52.68 and of course, as always with rising shares, bought far too little. Next buy in the AI crash or the next recession or whatever sell-off...
Source