Metaplanet Bull thesis

$3350 (+3,45%) is and remains one of the most asymmetrical investments you can currently make, IF you

the long-term significance of $BTC (-0,63%) understands
can withstand high volatility
recognize the locational advantage in Japan
recognizes the mathematics behind the aggressive accumulation of $BTC (-0,63%) and the associated leverage sees

Here are a few theses that I would like to open up for discussion:

Metaplanet uses the Japanese carry trade as leverage. They issue preferred shares, such as MERCURY. This costs them 4.9% fixed dividend per year, paid out in yen. For the money from the prefs they buy $BTC. (-0,63%) Due to the debt-to-GDP in Japan of approx. 260% and the weakness of the yen, which is offset by the constant appreciation of $BTC (-0,63%) a kind of asymmetrical carry trade arises.
Because the argument of the lack of income keeps coming up: $3350 (+3,45%) generated income from the sale of cash-secured puts on $BTC (-0,63%)the fees that buyers pay when trading options. As a result, they generated around USD 55 million in 2025, with significant growth from quarter to quarter. The first tranche of MERCURY issues generates around USD 7.35m / year in dividends. In Q4 alone, USD 27 million was collected. And this figure could reach USD 150m in Q4/26 if growth remains the same. This could finance USD 3 billion in prefs in just one quarter.
Expansion into the USA via ADR program since the end of December. Better liquidity, visibility and cheaper financing.
No exclusion from equity indices by MSCI.
Regulatory support from Japanese Finance Minister.
Possible TOPIX inclusion this year.
NOVA launch. Not much is known about this yet. $3350 (+3,45%) wants to become the "Bitcoin center" in Japan, similar to Coinbase in the USA, only focused on $BTC (-0,63%)

$3350 (+3,45%) was a falling knife for a long time, but anyone who is not put off by this will be delighted. I look forward to your opinions, including critical ones!

Chris@Multibagger

Rising interest rates in Japan will make investing in $3350 increasingly unattractive for the Japanese.

•

profit_pilot_2521@profit_pilot_2521

@Multibagger would depend on the yen's reaction. So far it has not appreciated, which is good. MERCURY's dividend of 4.9% is still well above that of government bonds and with comparably low risk. Theoretically, they could also offer higher coupons, as MSTR does now with Stretch (11%)

GHF@GHF

Carry trades are becoming increasingly less important. After the last rate hike in December, Japan has the highest interest rates in 30 years and the BoJ's outlook at least hints at possible further rate hikes.
Almost simultaneously, the Fed cut interest rates again in December and at least one more rate cut is expected in 2026. If the pressure from Trump increases, perhaps even several.

The interest rate spread will therefore continue to fall and pull a lot of risk capital out of cryptocurrencies... which will at least put pressure on the price of Bitcoin

@GHF It remains to be seen how the key interest rate and, above all, the strength of the yen will develop. As long as the yen does not appreciate, prices will remain asymmetrical.

The carry trade headwind in mid-December hardly changed the BTC price. It has been priced in for a long time and further unwinds are probably already priced in. The pressure is offset by some positive new conditions, so we will see a strong performance in the long term.

••

Fredi K.@equity_expert_1695

All in then!

@equity_expert_1695 then it's guaranteed never to be boring again

Alexander_Bitcoin@Alexander_Bitcoin

I see it similarly. Above all, pref shares holders have the opportunity to switch to common stocks.