Following the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, oil prices skyrocketed. $IOIL00 (+0,43%) rose to USD 77 per barrel, the sharpest increase since the coronavirus crisis in 2020. The market reacted with price losses, and shifts into $965515 (-0,49%) the US dollar and bonds.

Chapter overview:

I: Key facts

II: Strait of Hormuz

III: Oil Infrastructure

IV: Oil in connection with CPI data

V: Scenarios for this conflict

Let's take a sober look at the situation, is the oil price overreacting?

I: Key Facts

Iran currently produces around 3.3 to 4 million barrels of oil per day and exports around 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels, with the majority of these exports going to China. Should there be a shortfall in Iranian exports, for example due to attacks on production facilities or sanctions, this would be manageable for the commodities market in the short term. The daily volume corresponds to only a small part of the global oil demand of over 100 million barrels per day. This means that although the market will react to a shortfall, other producers such as the USA, Brazil or Saudi Arabia will be able to close part of the gap. The actual market reaction is therefore not primarily driven by a real supply shortfall, but by the fear of further escalation.

If we look at the status quo from a market psychology perspective, then the main cause of the price jumps is uncertainty about a possible spread of the conflict to the entire Gulf region. After all, this region is responsible for around a fifth of global oil shipments, as it is home to key oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. The mere possibility that the conflict could spread and other countries or production facilities could be affected leads to risk premiums on the futures market. Traders are therefore buying oil futures as a hedge against possible supply chain issues, which is also driving up prices. The fear of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transport routes, is a particularly strong price driver.

II: Strait of Hormuz

𝖣𝗂𝖾𝖾 𝖲𝗍𝗋𝖺ß𝖾 𝗏𝗈𝗇 𝖧𝗈𝗋𝗆𝗎𝗌 𝗏𝖾𝗋𝖻𝗂𝗇𝖽𝖾𝗍 𝖽𝖾𝗇 𝖯𝖾𝗋𝗌𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗇 𝖦𝗈𝗅𝖿 𝗆𝗂𝗍 𝖽𝖾𝗆 𝖦𝗈𝗅𝖿 𝗏𝗈𝗇 𝖮𝗆𝖺𝗇 𝗎𝗇𝖽 𝖽𝖾𝗆 𝖠𝗋𝖺𝖻𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗇 𝖬𝖾𝖾𝗋. 𝖳ä𝗀𝗅𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗉𝖺𝗌𝗌𝗂𝖾𝗋𝖾𝗇 𝖽𝗈𝗋𝗍 𝗋𝗎𝗇𝖽 20 𝖬𝗂𝗅𝗅𝗂𝗈𝗇𝖾𝗇 𝖡𝖺𝗋𝗋𝖾𝗅 𝖱𝗈𝗁ö𝗅, 𝖾𝗍𝗐𝖺 𝖾𝗂𝗇 𝖥ü𝗇𝖿𝗍𝖾𝗅 𝖽𝖾𝗌 𝗐𝖾𝗅𝗍𝗐𝖾𝗂𝗍𝖾𝗇 𝖡𝖾𝖽𝖺𝗋𝖿𝗌. 𝖲𝗂𝖾 𝗂𝗌𝗍 𝖽𝖺𝗆𝗂𝗍 𝖽𝗂𝖾 𝗐𝗂𝖼𝗁𝗍𝗂𝗀𝗌𝗍𝖾 Ö𝗅𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗇𝗌𝗉𝗈𝗋𝗍𝗋𝗈𝗎𝗍𝖾 𝖽𝖾𝗋 𝖶𝖾𝗅𝗍.

But a spear of the road is small at the moment. It has to be said that a closure in the future is also very low, because it has never been closed. Bear in mind that there was much more conflict in the region at the time. During the Iraq-Iran war, also known as the tanker war, numerous oil tankers were attacked, but the road remained open despite heavy fighting. Iran has also repeatedly threatened to block the strait in recent decades, particularly in response to sanctions or military pressure. However, the threats were never carried out. From a game theory perspective, this is called an empty threat.

There are several reasons for not closing the straits. First, the US and allies have a strong naval presence in the region to ensure freedom of navigation. Secondly, Iran is also dependent on the revenue from oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade would have a massive economic impact on its own country.

III: Oil infrastructure

Another point responsible for price spikes would be the threat to the oil infrastructure in the Middle East. Should there be attacks on production facilities, pipelines or oil ports, large quantities of oil could disappear from the market in the short term. Targeted attacks on Iranian facilities alone could result in a loss of 1.7 million barrels per day of exports, enough to tip the market from surplus to deficit and drive prices to USD 80 or more. Even more serious, of course, would be attacks or blockades affecting the Strait of Hormuz, but this is unlikely as mentioned above.

𝖪𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾 𝖤𝗇𝖾𝗋𝗀𝗂𝖾𝗂𝗇𝖿𝗋𝖺𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗎𝗄𝗍𝗎𝗋 𝗂𝗆 𝖯𝖾𝗋𝗌𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗇 𝖦𝗈𝗅𝖿, 𝖽𝖺𝗋𝗎𝗇𝗍𝖾𝗋 Ö𝗅𝗋𝖺𝖿𝖿𝗂𝗇𝖾𝗋𝗂𝖾𝗇 (𝗐𝗂𝖾 𝖠𝖻𝖺𝖽𝖺𝗇 𝗎𝗇𝖽 𝖡𝖺𝗇𝖽𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝖻𝖻𝖺𝗌), 𝖲𝖼𝗁𝗅ü𝗌𝗌𝖾𝗅𝗍𝖾𝗋𝗆𝗂𝗇𝖺𝗅𝗌 (𝖪𝗁𝖺𝗋𝗀 𝖨𝗌𝗅𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗆𝗂𝗍 28 𝖬𝗂𝗈. 𝖡𝖺𝗋𝗋𝖾𝗅 𝖫𝖺𝗀𝖾𝗋𝗄𝖺𝗉𝖺𝗓𝗂𝗍ä𝗍) 𝗎𝗇𝖽 𝖯𝗂𝗉𝖾𝗅𝗂𝗇𝖾𝗌. 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖾 𝖠𝗇𝗅𝖺𝗀𝖾𝗇 𝗅𝗂𝖾𝗀𝖾𝗇 𝗇𝖺𝗁𝖾 𝖽𝖾𝗋 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗀𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗇 𝖲𝗍𝗋𝖺ß𝖾 𝗏𝗈𝗇 𝖧𝗈𝗋𝗆𝗎𝗓 - 𝗂𝗁𝗋𝖾𝗋 𝖵𝖾𝗋𝗐𝗎𝗇𝖽𝖻𝖺𝗋𝗄𝖾𝗂𝗍 𝗆𝖺𝖼𝗁𝗍 𝗌𝗂𝖾 𝗓𝗎 𝗉𝗈𝗍𝖾𝗇𝗓𝗂𝖾𝗅𝗅𝖾𝗇 𝖹𝗂𝖾𝗅𝖾𝗇 𝖻𝖾𝗂 𝗆𝗂𝗅𝗂𝗍ä𝗋𝗂𝗌𝖼𝗁𝖾𝗇 𝖤𝗌𝗄𝖺𝗅𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇𝖾𝗇.

IV: Oil in connection with CPI data

In principle, an increase in the price of oil has a direct and indirect effect on inflation. economists estimate that a 10 percent increase in the price of oil increases consumer prices by around 0.4% in the following year. This means that if the oil price rises from USD 80 to USD 88 per barrel, inflation in Europe or the USA could be almost 0.5% higher next year than it would otherwise be. This would not necessarily play into his hands, for example, the last thing he needs is high CPI data.

V: Scenarios for this conflict

A. Regional conflict (probability 70-80%*)

If the conflict remains limited to Israel and Iran, I expect a stabilization at the level of USD 75-80 per barrel. Iran's production and export volumes (around 1.5-1.7 million barrels/day) could be at least partially offset by other producers, as mentioned above.

B. Expansion to the Gulf region (probability 15-25%* )

Should the conflict spread to other countries in the Persian Gulf or targeted attacks on production facilities occur, prices could rise further. One can assume 90-100 US dollars per barrel. Even a partial escalation of the conflict could lead to production losses or transportation delays. Such a price rise would fuel inflation worldwide, increase transportation and production costs and tend to slow down economic growth. The stock markets would come under more pressure and central banks could be forced to keep interest rates high or even raise them again. This would not play into Trump's hands, for example, so he will try to keep the conflict regional if he can.

C. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (probability 1-5%*)

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is considered a nightmare scenario for the markets. This could lead to a doubling of oil prices within a few hours, with forecasts of USD 100 to 130 per barrel. Every day, 20-21 million barrels of crude oil are shipped via the Strait, i.e. around 20% of global consumption and around a quarter of the global LNG trade. A blockade would therefore suddenly remove a fifth of the global oil supply from the market. Refineries in Asia and Europe would be forced to fall back on emergency reserves. The stock markets would plummet and freight rates for tankers would also explode

*𝖬𝖾𝗂𝗇𝖾𝖾 𝖠𝗇𝗀𝖺𝖻𝖾𝗇

Over the counter, the US stock market is already deep in the red again. However, two players are not at all impressed by this: $965515 (-0,49%) and $BTC (+0,2%) even if the BTC is of course still a little below its ATH - the "real" gold is currently simply pulling away.

When will we see $4,000 here?

Despite all the UP UP UP, gold remains for me NOT an investmentbut merely a hedgewhich I will not sell.

So this week will be the 1000th time the share dip will be bought this week.

Let's go!

The price of gold $965515 (-0,49%) has reached a new all-time high of USD 3,220 per troy ounce - in the midst of geopolitical uncertainty and trade conflicts. No wonder the run on the precious metal is currently so strong.

I personally hold a small position - but what's next?

- A new high?

- A long sideways phase, as we have seen more often in the past?

- Or will $BTC (+0,2%) as "digital gold" and leave classic gold behind?

What do you think?

As always for me: gold only physically, more of a hedge than a speculative investment.

$965515 (-0,49%)

I have 3.5 troy ounces here with a 155% gain since 2009 (my grandpa bought it at the time and left it to me).

I'm now considering whether I should continue to add to it and am thinking about whether I should buy it physically or as an ETF.

Before questions come up about ETFs or shares and why I'm not investing in them: I also have shares and ETFs but they run monthly with a savings plan anyway. I don't stress about adding to them.

Back to the question:

Would you buy gold physically? If so, where?

Or

digitally as an ETF? If so, which one?

Thanks for the input

While record inflows into US equity funds and foreign buying are fueling hope among retail investors, drastic US tariff hikes, a collapse in US household wealth and a historic loss of confidence among Canadian small businesses are looming as of April 2. For those who don't feel like reading and just want to know what to do now, the short summary is at the bottom.

The Chart 2 shows how Canadian small business sentiment has fallen to an all-time low lower than during 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis or COVID. The Canadian Small Business Confidence Index is an economic indicator that measures the sentiment and confidence of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada. It provides information on how optimistic or pessimistic entrepreneurs are about the current and future economic situation. The index is typically determined through regular surveys of SMEs and asks about sales expectations, investments, the employment situation and the overall economic outlook. The index is regarded as a leading indicator for economic development, as SMEs react quickly to economic changes.

This slump is no coincidence, as the index is reacting to the economic downturn described in Chart 6 announcement that US tariffs will rise from 2-3% to over 10% from April. Canada, 75% of whose exports flow to the US, is already feeling the effects of this, an alarm signal for global supply chains, which are increasingly burdened by protectionist measures. What is meant by protectionist measures? In short, it means that the USA wants to protect domestic industries, safeguard jobs and reduce trade deficits.

At the same time, the Chart 3 shows the strongest foreign selling of US equities since March 2023, due to 3 factors.

• The Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates at a high level of 4.25-4.50%. At its meeting on March 18-19, 2025, the Fed left the Zinsen unverändert and signaled that it remains cautious. The forecasts for interest rate cuts were maintained, but economic uncertainty has nevertheless increased.
• Another factor would be tax tightening. In other words, the government could raise taxes or cut subsidies. The former will not happen directly with income, but will happen differently; the latter is currently happening. Cuts of at least 880 billion US dollars over 10 years in Medicaid, Medicare, etc. Repeal of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), which could lead to savings of up to 560 billion dollars and the closure of the Department of Education.
• The imposition of new tariffs, such as the 25% tariffs on steel & aluminum imports, could be seen as an indirect form of tax hike as they increase costs for businesses and consumers.

Foreign investors held 24 16 trillion US dollars in American equities (Chart 4). A good sign of confidence in American stocks. The current sales are therefore small in comparison and should be interpreted more as a gasp for air. This is of course driven by Donald Trump's tariffs and foreign policy.

Thanks to rising share prices after the pandemic, the wealth of US households rose by 9 trillion US dollars (Chart 5), a boom that was fueled by Wealth-Effect consumption (70% of the US economy!). The value of equities rose in 2024 by 9 trillion US dollars (Chart 5), driven by the post-COVID rally. Bank of America now expects a loss of USD 3 trillion in Q1 2025, which would result in frugal consumption, lower corporate earnings and thus a driver of unemployment. At the same time, the inverse yield curve could increase borrowing costs and further burden households, similar to 1950. The combination of asset losses, expensive credit and trade conflicts could send the US into a downward spiral. downward spiral downward spiral. The emphasis is on could.

Nevertheless, the market is currently showing resilience as investors are currently pumping more money into US equity funds than ever before this year, which is inspiring short-term confidence in the market. What is of course quite hawkish is the fact that the US dollar is gaining in value because the Fed is maintaining its high interest rates. This hurts exporters in particular (e.g. German companies) and burdens emerging markets with dollar debt.

On the other hand, there are also clear dovish signals. Many investors are hoping for interest rate cuts to support the economy. This is why many investors are buying Treasuries, which is depressing yields.

So you see, there is no clear indication, and even if there were, another indicator would refute the other. The dollar is acting as if the Fed will remain hawkish, Treasury yields are acting as if the Fed will soon ease (dovish).

What should we do?

• Bet on bonds. In times of crisis, capital often goes into safe investments such as US government bonds. If the tariff escalation (Chart 6) or a slump in consumption (Chart 5) weaken the US economy, the Fed could cut interest rates to support the economy. When interest rates fall, existing bond prices rise and investors essentially benefit from price gains.
• Bet on countries like China & $LUSDAX (+1,03%) (+20% since US election) . Especially with regard to China: the budget deficit has been increased to 4% of GDP (from the previous limit of 3%) and long-term government bonds worth RMB 1.3 trillion (approx. USD 179.7 billion) have been announced to promote infrastructure projects and technological innovation.
• $965515 (-0,49%) as a hedge for 2025, as escalations (trade wars, sanctions, geopolitical tensions) will increase demand. A strong dollar (hawkish) weighs on other currencies. Gold serves as protection as it is traded in dollars and rises when the dollar weakens. A weak dollar (due to Fed interest rate cuts) also drives gold as it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers.

While European stocks and commodities are performing strongly, US equities and volatile assets such as Bitcoin are struggling with significant losses. A brief summary of the chart from Boll's Global Research

Winners

• Equity marketsGreece (+27.5%) and Spain (+25.5%) have posted the highest returns in Europe.
• Commodities: $NGAS (-1,08%) (+16.9%) and $965310 (+0,74%) (+16.2%) show the strongest performance.
• Foreign exchangeThe Swedish krona (+9.6%) and the Brazilian real (+9.4%) gained strongly against the US dollar.
• Sectors: Tech (+11.4%) and Materials (+8.0%)

Losers:

• Equity markets: US equities (-3.4%) and Taiwan (-7.3%)
• Commodities: $IOIL00 (+0,43%) (-5.2%) and $BTC (+0,2%) (-8.9%) record considerable losses.
• Foreign exchangeTurkish lira (-6.7%) and Indonesian rupiah (-2.6%) are weakening.

Current trends:

• $965515 (-0,49%) (+15.2%) and long-term US government bonds (+4.6%) remain stable.
• European stocks are outperforming, while the USA is lagging behind.

If you don't want to read the report...below is a short summary

1. the US labor market and the risk of recession

The US economy is in a precarious phase. The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day line for the first time since October 2023. Even more critical is the price ratio of the S&P 500 to US Treasuries ($TLT)which is once again at the 200DMA line, essentially a support level that has served as a psychological barrier against a bear market since December 2020 (Chart 2). The most recent Februar-Payroll-Daten with 151k new jobs was right in the middle of nowhere. A jobs report of over 200k would have been a strong reading and would have indicated that the US economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates. Stock markets would have stabilized as there was no imminent threat of recession; a report of 125k would have been a weak reading and would have indicated a cooling economy and falling corporate profits. The market would have slipped into a bear market phase, while bonds would have benefited as a safe haven.151k jobs lie exactly between these thresholds and offer no clear basis for interpretation.

Another alarming signal comes from the ratio of US consumer discretionary stocks to Staples stockswhich has reached an all-time high (Chart 5). For decades, this ratio has been a reliable early indicator of an imminent weak phase for the S&P 500. You could say that the USA is one payroll report away from a recession. The background to this is the dwindling influence of government job subsidies: In January 2025, the following 70% des Arbeitsmarktwachstums came from the public sector, a significant decline from 85% in the previous year. At the same time, the household savings rate is rising.

2 Global military spending: Europe in a fiscal dilemma

Germany's military expenditure amounts to only 7% of US spending, the United Kingdom reaches 8% (Charts 6 and 7). This explains why European budget deficits are exploding: For Germany, an average deficit of -4% of GDP is forecast for Germany for the period 2025-2030 (Chart 9). The "Whatever-it-takes" policy on Merz is driving the yields of German Bundesanleihen to over 3% (15-year high) and British Gilts to over 5,5% (27-year high).

German Bund yields could overtake US Treasuries this year (Chart 3).

3. flight to safety, exodus at risk

• $965515 (-0,49%) recorded the largest 4-week inflow of all time (USD 9.9 bn, chart 12). Gold is seen as a safe haven as investors seek hedges in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and looming recessions.

• Crypto funds experienced a record outflow of USD 3.6 billion (Chart 13), the largest since records began. Volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum and regulatory concerns are deterring institutional investors.

• Infrastructure funds recorded the largest outflow of all time (USD 0.9 bn, Chart 15) as rising interest rates weigh on the valuation of long-term projects.

• European equities saw the strongest 4-week inflow since August 2015 (USD 12 bn, chart 14). The drivers are the relatively low valuations and the focus on European industrial companies and banks.

• Emerging markets saw the largest inflow in three months (USD 2.4 bn), supported by China's tech revival and India's reform momentum.

• TIPS saw an 8-week inflow streak, the longest since December 2021, as investors want to be prepared for potential stagflation.

4 AI shock and tech

The DeepSeek AI shock has rearranged the tech bubble. The Magnificent 7 ($AAPL (-0,56%) , $MSFT (+0,47%) , $NVDA (-0,17%) , $AMZN (+2,55%) , $GOOGL (+0,74%) , $META (+2,04%) ) lost 3 trillion USD in market capitalization and are now known as the Lagnificent 7 are mocked. At the same time, the market capitalization of China's BATX ($9888 (-0,55%) , $9988 (-0,33%) , $700 (+0,3%) , $1810 (+7,25%)) to 1.6 trillion USDa sign that Chinese companies are catching up in the AI sector.

This shift is also reflected in the US-ISM-Manufacturing-PMI-Daten (Charts 10 & 11): The recent rise to 55 points is seen as tariff frontrunning interpreted. Companies stocked up their inventories ahead of time in order to circumvent expected trade barriers (e.g. new US tariffs on Chinese semiconductors). However, this short-term upswing masks structural weaknesses: The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio (Chart 11) points to an imminent slowdown in industrial activity. The cyclicals vs. defensives ratio compares the performance of cyclical stocks (industrials, commodities, consumer goods) with that of defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples). Basically serves as a leading indicator for economic expectations.

5. forecasts 2025: strategic decisions

Recommendation: Buy 30YUST with a yield target of below 4%. Reasons:

• The US government is ending its 5-year phase of excessive spending, leading to a decline in demand.
• 70% of job growth in January 2025 came from the public sector, a sign of private sector weakness.

At the same time, one can UK Gilts & EU bonds can be classified as sell candidates. The yields of UK gilts are at 5,5% (27-year high), driven by the cost of rearmament and a budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP.

Equities: Europe and China in focus

• European markets: The DAX (+18% YTD) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (+13% YTD) are benefiting from undervalued industrial companies and banks. Despite a net outflow of USD 255 bn since 2022 flowed for the first time in the last 4 weeks 4 bn USD returned for the first time, a good sign.

• China: H-shares (+23% YTD) are attracting capital as Chinese tech companies benefit from the AI revolution and government subsidies.

• India: Small caps are 21% below their September 2024 high (Chart 4), but offer long-term opportunities in the context of the Make in India Initiative

Weak dollar, strong exporters

A weak US dollar favors European and Chinese exporters. At the same time US semiconductors could experience a recovery: The equal-weighted Semiconductor Index($esox) has 73% of its gains since the ChatGPT hype in May 2023. The tech sector also saw an inflow for the first time in 5 weeks (USD 2.6bn).

6. trouble spots: Japan and the ticking debt bomb

The 30-jährigen JGB-Renditen are quoted at 2,5% (17-year high), while the Bank of Japan with a key interest rate of 0,5% well behind the wage growth (5-6%) is lagging behind wage growth. Should the BoJ tighten its policy in order to regain credibility, there is a risk of a Nikkei Sell Offsimilar to the in August 2024when the yen appreciated sharply and Carry-Trades collapsed. If it fails to act, the weakness of the yen could push up import costs further and exacerbate stagflation.

7. summary 2025

2025 will be dominated by three megatrends:

• Long-dated US Treasuries and gold serve as protection against recession and stagflation.
• Europe and China take advantage of the weakness of the US dollar and technological upheavals.
• Japan's debt crisis, Europe's fiscal overheating and the fragility of the US labor market.

• Buy: European industrial stocks ($SIE (+1,11%) , $ASML (-2,4%) ), China's BATX, 30-year US Treasuries, gold.
• Dont's: UK/EU bonds, crypto, infrastructure funds.
• Wacth: BoJ policy, US payroll data, Indo-Pacific geopolitics.