iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Broaden your portfolio to reduce risk? Tradingview Indicator

Who hasn't experienced this? You think you're diversifying with a new asset, only to realize that it's actually very similar to the rest of your portfolio. This doesn't create a real diversification effect, it's just packaged differently and you have almost the same exposure.

This is where my indicator comes in. It shows you how strongly your current chart (you can use just about anything here: from individual stocks like $PLTR (+6,35%) to ETFs like $IWDA (+0,23%) , bonds, crypto, commodities, economic data, etc.) with key markets such as the S&P500 $VUSA (+0,32%) , the Nasdaq $CSNDX (-0,01%) , the Russell2000 $XRS2 (+0,06%) , the Dax $LYY7 (-0,47%) , China $CNUA (-0,27%) , gold $GOLD silver $PHAG (+0,78%) , bonds or the cryptocurrency $BTC (-1,82%) correlated. This allows you to immediately recognize whether a supposed addition to the portfolio actually changes anything or is basically just a clone of what you already have. Let's take an example: You think you are creating a counterweight to Europe with China, but you realize from the correlation that both markets are moving almost in sync. So you know that this "diversification" is of little use. Apart from the fact that Europe and China generally haven't done much for a long time, haha.

The interpretation of the values is relatively simple. High correlations (close to 1) indicate similar price trends, negative ones indicate opposing trends, and values around zero indicate that there is no clear connection. Bear in mind, however, that correlation is not the same as causality and often only shows indirect relationships. Moreover, historical correlation is no guarantee of future patterns. Nevertheless, this view helps to uncover possible misconceptions and develop more targeted diversification strategies to make your portfolio more resilient. The +/- ratio can now also be taken into account. This is because it often happens that one and the same asset correlates very differently with each other in different phases - sometimes very positively, sometimes very negatively. As a result, the average value can provide a misleading picture. The stronger these fluctuations are, the more percent of the time it is positively or negatively correlated. This is therefore an additional indicator to check how meaningful the average correlation actually is. So + value is the time where the correlation is positive in % etc.

Still to be optimized, that the correlation is not currently limited to certain time periods. For example, if you want to look at the relationship between MicroStrategy $MSTR (+8,98%) and Bitcoin in isolation would have to exclude earlier phases in which MicroStrategy was still a real business and not a "leveraged closed commodity fund" as it is now. In addition to the ATH delta filter, I also plan to incorporate a moving average (MA) as a further trend filter. In the long term, I would like to integrate even more markets, for example emerging markets or non-USD bonds, in order to paint a truly comprehensive picture.

The correlation with interest rate expectations I have used $SHY (short-term government bonds) and $TLT (long-term government bonds). If the SHY falls, the market assumes that interest rates will rise over the next two years. In the case of TLT, this expectation relates to around 16 years and is effectively "leveraged" by the term. If the asset you have shows a high correlation to the SHY, it means that it is relatively sensitive to interest rates (like almost everything). But that would be too much to explain in detail. What is clear, however, is that interest rates play a major role for equities, especially for the Russell 2000, where many smaller, unprofitable companies benefit from low interest rates, as do mining companies with high levels of debt, for example. Of course, it is not the only correlation, but it is an important factor.

• Which other markets or assets would you include to bring more clarity to your analysis?
• Does the indicator even make sense?
• And is there anyone here with a statistical background who would like to go through the code to make sure that everything is calculated correctly or how it could be done better?

I don't know if this is an affiliate link, but don't think so anyway: this is advertising

https://www.tradingview.com/script/kRCxLnhY-Asset-Correlation-Check/

Why is the market not afraid of the Powell speech?

Sure, the inflation data came in pretty much in line with expectations, maybe a tad above. But I see Powell being rhetorically hawkish today. The "red wave" has sparked a lot of euphoria, and Trump may make the Fed more restrictive than under Harris. Asset inflation has been quite high this year, which should now slowly (with a delay of 6-18 months) feed through to core inflation. The betting markets currently see an 82% probability of a rate cut in December - but wouldn't today be an opportunity for Powell to slowly steer the market towards caution?

What's your take on this, is this really relevant at all at the moment or am I completely wrong?

$TSLA (-4,58%)
$MC (-0,25%)
$NVDA (+2,01%)
$ASML (-1,59%)
$PLTR (+6,35%)
$BTC (-1,82%)
$ETH (-1,39%)
$VIX
$SPY (+0,01%)
$TLT
$TIP (-0,36%)

Good day.

I am now publishing my portfolio for the second time, a few things have changed. I am 19 years old and started investing in October last year. I was a student until july this year and have been working since august. That's why I can invest 500 per month. From January I have to go into the military, from then on I will earn correspondingly less for the first 124 days, the remaining 176 days it will be gross about as much as now net. I'll see how much I can invest during this time. I sold my core position $VWRL (+0,18%) I have sold in order to shift the money into the $TLT to shift the money into the The idea behind this is that if interest rates fall with a recession, I will still make a profit. The overall loss is actually higher than with getquin due to many mistakes made by beginners such as selling small bad investments with too high fees.

I look forward to your assessment and opinion on my portfolio.

Have a good trading day

Good morning (-:

I would like to start a discussion about the $TLT because I don't think I have understood the principle behind it yet. In simple terms: this is an ETF which invests in a part of the 20 year government bonds of the USA.

A few assumptions:

• if the interest rate continues to rise in the USA, will the price of the ETF fall because the "old government bonds" are not as attractive as the new ones?
• what happens if the interest rate stays the same, the price should not fluctuate much, except when the stock market weakens and bonds become more attractive?
• if the interest rate goes down, the price should go up because the old bonds have a better yield than the new ones? Equally, however, stocks become more attractive again and compete?
• the ETF itself has a payout rate of currently between 3-4%, when is that paid out (semi-annually, in January?) - does the price then fall accordingly - the chart does not look that way

Looking forward to the discussion.

Kind regards