Gas prices are skyrocketing, Bitcoin remained impressively stable over the weekend, and tech companies are still raking it in with AI—before the technology wipes us out.

But before that happens, we’re going to make a killing 🤑🤑🤑

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

Finally, a completely normal month for the strategy again! Here’s the update:

Asset Performance 08/26 (July 31–August 31, according to Wikifolio)

3xUSDEUR: -2.3%

3xQQQ: +11.6%

3xEU50: -7.1%

3xGTAA Portfolio (Aug. 31, according to Getquin)

July 31, 2026: €124,540

August 31, 2026: €127,700

Wikifolio Certificate (August 31, average price according to Wikifolio)

July 31, 2026: €193.70

August 31, 2026: €198.60

Month: +2.5%

YTD: +21.5%

August 2026 Review

With a monthly performance of +2.5%, 3xGTAA barely moved in August. The gains in the Nasdaq 100 were almost entirely offset by losses in the Euro Stoxx 50 and the USDEUR—even though things looked significantly more positive at one point. A quick note for the record: the losses in these two asset classes had already been foreshadowed last month, as they had almost completely lost their momentum.

Outlook 09/26

There have been some shifts in momentum within the asset pool. The EU50 and USDEUR are falling back and are thus being removed from the active allocation. Replacing them are two old favorites: WTI and BTC. WTI has stabilized significantly and is now trading above the SMA150 again. Since the margin is narrow, the signal could still change on September 1. In that case, EU50 would remain in the portfolio. The price at approximately 12:00 p.m. on September 1 will be decisive, to allow enough time for execution (finding a favorable spread, partial sales in low-liquidity conditions). The situation is different for BTC, which is trading well above the signal line following the August rally and has also shown positive momentum overall over the past six months.

The allocation for 9/26 is therefore:

2xWTI

3xQQQ

1xBTC

Report from the 3xGTAA Workshop

As already mentioned in recent monthly reports, the issue of interest rates is increasingly coming into focus for investors. This is a good opportunity to take another close look at the bond asset class in the 3xGTAA.

As some of you may know, the dominant regime of falling interest rates over the past 40 years came to an end in 2022 and is now reversing. However, this also reverses the logic behind including bonds in portfolios and strategies. What has worked over the past 40 years will not necessarily work over the next 40 years. This is relevant—even for every ordinary B&H investor. In what way? Due to their negative correlation with stocks, bonds have served as a hedge or risk buffer in many standard portfolios. You’ll still hear this from your personal financial advisor. However, when inflation reaches around 3%, this correlation flips to a positive one, and the risks of both asset classes amplify each other. You won’t hear that from your advisor anymore.

What does this mean for 3xGTAA? The asset pool consists primarily of uncorrelated asset classes, of which—according to the plan—a few are always trending upward. If stocks now fall due to rising interest rates, then bonds will also fall, and there will be no diversification. One idea would be to add short bond ETFs—that is, ETFs that rise when bond prices fall or interest rates rise.

One problem with this idea is that the new interest rate regime was only implemented in 2022 and hasn’t been in place long enough to conduct meaningful backtests. Including such ETFs in 3xGTAA would therefore be purely speculative. A specific candidate would be the WisdomTree US Treasury 30y 3x Short $UL3S (+0,03%) (I’d call it the short -3xTLT).

Now my question for you: What do you think of the idea of adding a -3xTLT to the portfolio to potentially profit from rising U.S. interest rates? I’m still undecided on this (new interest rate environment vs. lack of backtests) and would appreciate any input!

Whatever your opinion may be: May the momentum be with you!

Yours, Epi

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

Next buy at 182 euros or at the end of September.

Can anyone tell me why the spread on @Krush82 Global Momentum $DE000LS9VVV3 (-0,27%) averages 1.8–2.2%, while @Epi 's Gtaa $DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

consistently hovers around 0.5–1.0%?

I’m with JustTrade, and this really annoys me—

is it different with SB+?

July was another month to hang in there. Here’s the update:

Asset Performance 07/26 (June 30–July 31, according to Wikifolio)

3xUSDEUR: -2.3%

3xQQQ: -16.0%

3xEU50: +4.3%

3xGTAA Portfolio (June 30, according to Getquin)

June 30, 2026: €136,040

July 31, 2026: €124,540

Wikifolio Certificate (June 30, mid-market rate according to Wikifolio)

June 30, 26: €211.60

July 31, 26: €193.70

Month: -8.5%

YTD: +18.7%

Review 07/26

With a loss of -8.5%, 3xGTAA has posted another month of losses. This time, the losses were driven by the Nasdaq 100. In particular, the high volatility there is taking a significant toll on leveraged ETFs, which reset their leverage to 3 every day. The USD and Euro STOXX 50 are trading virtually unchanged after minor fluctuations.

Outlook 08/26

The markets seem to be slowly shifting their focus to U.S. interest rates, as already suggested in the last update. While the price of oil is rising significantly again, interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks are losing ground. WTI is trading above the SMA150 again and, due to its higher momentum, is once more taking the place of USDEUR.

The allocation for 8/26 is therefore:

2xWTI

3xQQQ

3xEU50

Report from the 3xGTAA Workshop

The price movement of WTI clearly illustrates the systematic risk of a rule-based momentum strategy. Right at the turn of the month, the price hits an interim low and then rises again. In the meantime, 2xWTI is up 60%. What conclusions can be drawn from this? The answer is: none. Why?

Across most asset classes and regions, the momentum effect is only measurable over a time horizon of at least one month. Below that, other effects dominate, such as mean reversion or political factors. From a momentum perspective, the fact that the WTI price turns right at the start of the month is therefore unpredictable and thus likely a coincidence. The backtests and model parameters have already factored this coincidence in. Perhaps next month an asset will turn to “sell” just in time before it drops significantly? We don’t know, and we don’t need to. And it’s not worth getting upset about.

Incidentally, this presents a certain psychological challenge: continuing to follow the rules and trusting the model, even when it occasionally generates signals that, in hindsight, do not seem optimal. This challenge is likely also a major reason why momentum strategies have not yet gained widespread acceptance. Trust in momentum is lacking because understanding is lacking. That’s why it’s not enough to cobble together a few parameters for a model that look good in backtesting—understanding the asset basket, the chosen parameters, and momentum in general is essential for long-term success. Otherwise, you’ll change your strategy at the first sign of volatility or abandon it entirely—just before it starts performing again. Therefore:

May the understanding of momentum be with you!

Yours, Epi

EDIT: Due to the sharp decline, WTI is trading well below the signal line as of August 1. So the July allocation remains in effect.

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

I bought a little too early back in June. Today, my limit order was triggered—somewhat unexpectedly. Let's see if the timing was better this time. If not, I'll buy more at 174 euros next time 😁

A new TR update has just been announced, stating that several exchanges are now available, as well as Lang and Schwarz at a cost of 2€ per order. Since I currently $DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%) —like many others here—I’m wondering if it will be tradable there as well? I’ve already looked for it but haven’t found it

Finally, some movement in 3xGTAA again! Unfortunately, this time it's in the wrong direction:

Asset Performance 06/26 (May 30–June 30, according to Wikifolio)

2xWTI: -29.4%

3xQQQ: -1.9%

3xEU50: +15.8%

3xGTAA Portfolio (June 30, according to Getquin)

May 30, 26: €144,555

June 30, 26: €136,040

Wikifolio Certificate (June 30, mid-market rate according to Wikifolio)

May 30, 26: €225.80

June 30, 26: €211.60

Month: -6.3%

YTD: +29.6%

June 2026 Review

With a loss of over 6%, the month didn’t go as well as hoped. The losses were mainly due to oil. Gains in the stock markets weren’t enough to offset them. But that’s just how it goes. Things can’t always go up. Overall, the fluctuations remained within expected limits.

Outlook 06/26

The Iran issue has now been suspended for 60 days. What will actually happen after the negotiations is still completely up in the air. The markets appear to be playing the TACO trade. Another factor that has come into play is Warsh, the new Fed chair. Interest rate cuts in 2026 are now likely completely off the table. The key issue for the summer is likely to be the discussion about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, which is intended to withdraw a significant amount of liquidity from the markets without having to raise interest rates.

These developments are reflected in the assets within 3xGTAA: WTI is being removed from the portfolio, and USDEUR Long is being added in its place. Alongside QQQ and EU50, this is the only remaining asset class in an uptrend above the SMA150.

The allocation for 7/26 is therefore:

3xUSDEUR

3xQQQ

3xEU50

Report from the 3xGTAA Workshop

Recently, during a discussion, someone asked me how my portfolio would have performed. When I said approximately 25% per year since 2023, the response was that the same results could have been achieved with a Nasdaq 100 ETF and without leverage. That may be true—even for 3xGTAA—but it overlooks an important question: How dependent is a strategy’s performance on the overall market?

First, there’s always some stock index that outperforms your own strategy over a given period. If you knew the performance in advance, you could always bet on the best-performing index for the coming year and outperform all the others. Unfortunately, I don’t know that. And second, because of this uncertainty about the future, a strategy that systematically achieves the same performance with greater independence from the overall market is better. After all, you want to be able to make money even if the Nasdaq 100 slumps for a decade or two.

The most important metric for a strategy’s independence from a benchmark market is beta. In short: A beta of 1 means that a strategy tracks the benchmark market (e.g., MSCI World) on a 1:1 basis (e.g., 100% B&H MSCI World ETF). A beta of 0 means that the strategy performs completely independently of the benchmark market (e.g., 100% money market ETF). A beta of -1 tracks the benchmark market inversely (e.g., 1x Short DAX ETF). A strategy that achieves the average performance of the MSCI World (approx. 7% per annum) with a beta of 0 would therefore be excellent. The belief that one might as well have just invested in the MSCI World itself misses this important point. But you only realize this once the MSCI World has been performing significantly poorly for an extended period.

3xGTAA has a 1-year beta of -0.3 relative to the MSCI World and the Nasdaq 100. This means the correlation is slightly negative compared to these major indices. It doesn’t look so great when both indices are rising, but this is put into perspective as soon as they start to fall. So: Always look at the whole picture before passing judgment on a strategy!

A personal note

Since some of my posts were recently deleted by Getquin without comment—for whatever reason—I’ve decided to make my most important posts available via an external link on my profile page. There you’ll also find older posts from the early days of GTAA and on other topics. Enjoy! Suggestions for improvement are always welcome:

https://e.pcloud.link/publink/show?code=kZ4VAcZWGzWxTqxyLLYiAc5GgkJnYHQq8lX

May this momentum be with you, too!

Yours, Epi

(with a new logo)

https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

$DE000LS9U6W1 (+0,16%)

True to the motto “shut up and take my money,” I topped up my position again and have now reached my target of 100 shares. After yesterday’s dip, I first paid the “spread of death” and then realized that my margin account didn’t have enough to make it up to 100. The remaining four followed today; the spread was more favorable, but the price had risen again.