The first three levels of this series dealt with access to orbit, the operation of orbital infrastructure and the resulting data and communication systems. Lunar Infrastructure goes one step further.

There is still hardly any economic activity there. This is precisely why I find this area exciting. Many of the necessary building blocks are known, but the infrastructure is almost completely lacking.

Should a permanent economic presence develop beyond the Earth's orbit in the coming decades, new bottlenecks will arise practically from scratch. These include, among others:

- Energy supply - Electricity will become a basic requirement for any activity on the moon and space stations

- Nuclear systems - compact Compact reactors for permanent energy supply in extreme environments

- Communication networks - Data links between Earth, Moon and orbital infrastructure

- Navigation and positioning - GPS does not exist on the moon

- Resource extraction - Using water, oxygen and raw materials directly on site

- Robotics and autonomous systems - Maintenance and operation without permanent human presence

- Transportation and logistics systems - Supply of lunar and orbital sites

- In-Situ Manufacturing - Production directly outside the earth (advantage: no gravity)

- New space stations - Research, industrial and logistics platforms in orbit

- Computing power and data processing - Local processing of large amounts of data in space

I find it particularly interesting that many of these future bottlenecks are already recognizable today. Some of the actual business models do not even exist yet. The infrastructure problems, on the other hand, are already becoming apparent. Investment in this area has so far been limited.

$LUNR (-7,01%) (Intuitive Machines) is working on central building blocks for a future lunar infrastructure. $FLY (-7,37%) (Firefly Aerospace) is increasingly expanding its activities in the direction of lunar services. $RDW (-6,75%) (Redwire) is developing technologies for space stations and industrial applications in orbit. $VOYG (-4,05%) (Voyager Technologies) is working on commercial space station projects (Starlab) as a possible successor to today's government infrastructure. $OHB (-10,04%) (OHB) builds satellite and space systems that could also become relevant for more distant missions in the long term.

Companies outside the traditional space sector could also play a role in the future. If nuclear energy supplies on the moon or space stations become a reality, suppliers of compact reactor systems, e.g. $OKLO (Oklo) will come more into focus. The same applies to robotics, communication and automation technologies.

Many of these ideas still seem a long way off today. However, this applies to almost any infrastructure before it is actually built. Perhaps the next major infrastructure zone will not be built on Earth, but a few hundred thousand kilometers away.

#wikifolio
#scalelimits

The next value is $JEF (-5,75%)

I. The Deep Dive: Intrinsic Value

The valuation of Jefferies is currently a prime example of an undervaluation due to special effects. While the share price stands at approx. 62,20 $ the fundamental models speak a different language.

1st DCF model (discounted cash flow)

Based on the cash flow forecasts for 2026 (growth rate approx. 12.4 % p.a.), two scenarios emerge:

• Base Case: The fair value is approx. 121,84 $.
• Bull case (alpha spread): With an optimistic assumption of the IPO wave, the value will even rise to 131,14 $ .
• Reality check: Even more conservative models (Simply Wall St) see a fair value of at least 70.00 $ to 77.00 $.

2. relative valuation (multiples)

• P/E ratio: At approx. 20,4x Jefferies is well below the industry average for US capital markets (25,6x).
• P/B (price-to-book): Jefferies trades near its book value (approx. 1.2x), while the profitability of the investment banking division would justify a multiple of 1.5x to 1.8x.

Summary: According to the DCF model, the share is undervalued by almost 50 % undervalued. The market currently pays significantly less for every dollar of profit at Jefferies than at its competitors.

II. project pipeline: The engines for 2026

Jefferies is no mere spectator, but the "architect" behind the biggest deals of the coming quarter.

1. the SMBC megaproject (alliance integration)

This is the most important internal value driver. The strategic alliance with the Japanese Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC) is now fully operational:

• Capital leverage: Jefferies has access to 2.5 billion $ in credit facilities from SMBC.
• Market share: This allows Jefferies to act as financier on large M&A mandates (multi-billion deals) - an area previously reserved for the "bulge bracket" banks (JP Morgan, Goldman).

2. the "IPO renaissance" (equity underwriting)

Jefferies has positioned itself as the go-to bank for tech and growth companies. The pipeline for the 1st half of 2026 includes

• Fintech & Crypto: Preparation of the IPOs of Circle (USDC) and eToro (successor mandates).
• Healthcare: Over 9.4 billion $ in outstanding transactions in the healthcare sector alone (advisory & IPOs).
• India focus: Jefferies is currently advising on massive capital raisings and IPOs in the Indian market, which is considered to be the fastest growing for 2026.

3. defense & aerospace picks

In line with my holdings ($RDW (-6,75%)
Redwire, $VOYG (-4,05%)
Voyager), Jefferies has just (January 2026) published its top picks:

• Leidos ($LDOS (+1,57%)
  ) and L3Harris ($LHX (-0,16%)
  ) are their favorites for 2026. Jefferies holds the leading advisory and analysis mandates here.

Of course, this is also an initial AI analysis, but I don't have the time for a more detailed one at the moment in addition to my studies. But I will have the courage to do so in the next few weeks :)

I think I'll place a first tranche on the stock on Monday. The IPO wave in particular should be interesting! True to the motto one, two risk!