Vistra Corp ( $VST (-8,8%) )

Fundamental Analysis

Vistra Corp shows solid financial health and is well positioned to benefit from growing energy demands from AI data centers. Here are the key takeaways:

Financial Health:

• Valuation Metrics: PE Ratio: 16.14, PB Ratio: 7.70, PS Ratio: 2.46, Enterprise Value: $58.51 billion.
• Growth Metrics: Revenue growth: 16.54% ↑, Net income growth: 78.10% ↑, EPS growth: 97.25% ↑.
• Financial stability: Current ratio: 0.96, Debt to equity: 3.12, ROE: 47.78% ↑, ROIC: 10.69%
• Market performance: Market capitalization: 29.88 billion, average trading volume: 7,034,383.47 shares, EPS: 1.472, PE ratio: 63.949.

Business model:

• Revenue sources: Diversified revenue from wholesale contracts, retail energy fees and capacity revenue.
• Strategic investments: $700 million for solar and energy storage projects by 2025.

Impact of AI data centers:

• Energy demand: AI data centers are driving strong energy demand, with a projected energy gap of over 40GW by 2028 in the US.
• Nuclear Power Advantage: Vitra's nuclear power capabilities position the company well to meet the energy needs of hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft.
• Regulatory challenges: Bureaucratic hurdles are delaying the signing of power purchase agreements.

Analyst view:

• Consensus: 80% "Buy", 20% "Hold".

Chart analysis and technical indicators

Technical analysis shows a volatile but overall positive price trend with clear entry and support points:

• Current price (23.03.2025): $130.65 (USD)
• Historical price range (1 year): -64.26-199.84
• 50-day average: $86.86
• 200-day average: $72.07

Entry and support points:

• Support Levels (S1, S2, S3): ,132.26,128.73, $124.86 (based on current calculations)
• Resistance Levels (R1, R2, R3): ,139.66,143.53, $147.06

Future Outlook:

• Short term (3-6 months): The stock could continue to rally on rising energy demand from AI data centers, with regulatory challenges causing short-term volatility.
• Medium term (6-12 months): Strategic investments in renewables and nuclear power could strengthen the long-term growth story.
• Long-term (1+ years): Vistra is well positioned to benefit from the energy transition and increasing demand for reliable energy supply.

Risks and uncertainties

• Regulatory hurdles: Delays in power purchase agreements could slow growth.
• Market volatility: The share has shown strong fluctuations in the past.
• Data gaps: Lack of qualitative data (e.g. transcripts) could limit the analysis.

Conclusion

Vistra Corp is a promising investment with strong fundamentals and a good positioning in the growing energy market. The planned AI data centers offer significant growth opportunities, although regulatory challenges and market volatility pose risks. The technical analysis shows clear entry and support points that could be of interest to investors.

$VST (-8,8%)

Vistra Corp. ( VST ) is an energy company with a market capitalization of nearly $43 billion that provides power generation, distribution and transmission solutions. Based in Irving, Texas, the company is also active in wholesale energy trading, commodity risk management, fuel production and fuel logistics management.

Companies with a valuation of 10 billion US dollars or more are typically classified as "large-cap stocks". Vistra fits this description perfectly, as its market capitalization exceeds this threshold. The company's key strengths lie in its diverse energy portfolio, which includes natural gas, nuclear, solar and battery storage, making it a key player in the energy transition. In addition, the company benefits from its strong presence in the highly competitive US electricity markets, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers. With its focus on innovation, operational efficiency and sustainability, Vistra continues to build on its position as a leading energy provider in the industry.

Despite its remarkable strength, this utility has fallen 37.7 percent since its 52-week high of $199.84 on January 23. Moreover, it is down 6.3 percent over the past three months, lagging the 4.4 percent decline in the broader S&P 500 Index ( SPX ) over the same period.

For the year, VST shares are down 9.7 percent, while SPX is down 4.5 percent. Still, over the past 52 weeks, VST has gained 99.2% over the long term, significantly outpacing SPX's 9% gain.

Confirming the recent downtrend, Vistra traded below its 50-day moving average at the end of February. Nevertheless, the price has remained above its 200-day moving average with slight fluctuations since last year.

On February 27, VST shares plunged 12.3% as the company posted weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings of $1.14 per share and revenue of $4 billion. On a positive note, however, sales were up 31.1% year-over-year and the company reported net income of $490 million - a significant improvement over the $184 million loss in the same quarter last year. The sharp decline in Vistra's stock was also influenced by general market sentiment, particularly the 3.5% drop in Nvidia (NVDA) shares after the AI giant warned that its gross profit margins could be lower than expected due to the launch of its new Blackwell chip design.

VST has significantly outperformed its peer, American Electric Power Company, Inc. ( AEP ), with a 29% gain over the past 52 weeks, but trailed AEP's 14.9% return on an annualized basis.

Despite Vistra's recent underperformance, analysts remain very optimistic about its prospects. The stock is rated a "Strong Buy" by the 13 analysts covering it, and the average price target of $183.69 suggests a massive 47.6% upside to the current price.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/31478365/is-vistra-stock-underperforming-the-s-p-500

$NOVO B (-6,66%) 15x

$TGT (+1,89%) 3x at 99€

Another 7x will follow if we reach the 95€.

$VST (-8,8%) 5x at 105€

another 5 will follow if we reach €97.

$ZTS (-4,18%) 5x at 148€

What do you think about the strong negative curve of $VST (-8,8%) and $AMAT (-5,46%)

do you think it is going up again?

Hello everyone,

I am quite new to "trading" and need your advice.

I own two Airbus share programs and am currently considering selling a package worth €15,000. My aim is to reinvest the money in other stocks, in particular Novo Nordisk, Tesla, Vistra and TSMC.

Background: In 2-3 years I will need the capital to build my house. I am therefore wondering whether it makes sense to hold the Airbus shares or to switch to other shares now in order to achieve a better return.

How would you proceed? Continue to hold Airbus or switch to the shares mentioned?

I am looking forward to your opinion.

$AIR (-8,31%)

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$2330

$VST (-8,8%)

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Let's continue with the quarterly figures😬

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