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132TSMC Q4'24 Earnings Highlights
- Revenue: $26.24B (Est. $25.83B) ; +39% YoY
- Net Income: $11.31B (Est. $11.17B) ; +57% YoY
- Gross Margin: 59.0% (Est. 58.5%) ; +53% YoY
- Oper. Margin: 49.0% (Est. 48.1%)
- FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)
- FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)
Q1'25 Guidance:
- Revenue: $25B - $25.8B (Est. $24.43B)
- Gross Margin: 57% - 59%
- Operating Margin: 46.5% - 48.5% (Est. 46.4%)
- Management expects a ~5.5% sequential revenue drop (smartphone seasonality) but sustained robust AI demand.
Long-Term Revenue CAGR: ~20% (2024-2028)
- AI-related revenue was mid-teens percent of total in 2024 and is expected to double in 2025, with a ~40% CAGR for AI accelerators through 2029.
- AI & HPC cited as main growth engines
- Smartphone & PC segments also gain from higher silicon content
Q4 Process & Segment Details:
- Wafer Shipments: 3.418M; UP +15.6% YoY
- ASP per wafer: ~$6,850 (FY basis); UP +19% YoY
- Advanced Technologies (7nm & below): 74% of total wafer revenue (vs. 69% in Q3)
- 3nm: 26% (vs. 20% in Q3)
- 5nm: 34% (vs. 32% in Q3)
- 7nm: 14% (vs. 17% in Q3)
Q4 revenue by product platform
- HPC (incl. AI): 53% (vs. 51% in Q3) - HPC up +69% YoY
- Smartphone: 35% (vs. 34% in Q3)
- IoT: 5%
- Automotive: 4%
- Consumer Electronics: 1%
- Others: 2%
Q4 Revenue by Geography
- North America: 75% (vs. 71% in Q3)
- China: 9%
- Asia Pacific (ex-China): 9%
- Japan: 4%
- EMEA: 3%
Capital Expenditure:
- FY24 CapEx: $29.76B (Est. ~$29.5B)
- ~70% allocated to advanced nodes (N3, N2)
- ~10-20% for specialty tech & non-wafer (e.g., advanced packaging, mask)
- Sees FY25 CapEx: $38B - $42B (Est. $35.15B)
- "Higher than 2024" to fund advanced nodes (N3, N2) & packaging expansions
- Overseas fabs contribute to increased spending
Advanced Packaging (CoWoS, SoIC):
- ~8% of revenue in 2024; expected to exceed 10% in 2025
- "Any rumors about CoWoS order cuts are simply not true. We continue to increase capacity."
Comment from the management:
Sales drivers and overall performance in the 4th quarter
- "We attribute our sales performance in the fourth quarter to strong demand for 3 nm and 5 nm process technologies."
- "Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer sales compared to 69% in the third quarter."
Full year 2024 and future outlook
- "TSMC expects 2025 to be another strong growth year, with revenue growth of over 20% in US dollar terms."
- "Over the next five years (from 2024), we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20%, driven primarily by AI-related demand and the continued growth of silicon content in smartphones and PCs."
- "In 2024, AI-related revenue was a mid-double-digit percentage of TSMC's total revenue. It is expected to double by 2025 as the strong increase in AI demand continues."
- "We expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for AI accelerator revenue over the next five years (2025-2029). This is an important driver for future growth."
AI demand, HPC and HBM
- "Memory will grow overall, but HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) will grow very fast."
- "Demand for AI has more than tripled at TSMC in the last year and we expect it to more than double again in 2025."
- "We continue to see a robust demand profile in AI and can only hope that we can get enough teams and capacity together to support this growth."
Comment on rumors and expansion abroad
- "Rumors about capacity cuts at CoWoS are just rumors - we are continuing to expand our capacity. There are no plans to cut orders."
- "Factories abroad, including in the US and Japan, have an annual gross margin dilution effect of 2-3%, mainly due to smaller scale and higher supply chain costs. We expect this 2-3% margin effect to continue over the next five years."
- "Taiwan will always be the first to ramp up new nodes due to its proximity to our R&D labs (Hsinchu). Other factories abroad will follow depending on customer demand and government support."
- "Our factory in Arizona has started mass production of N4. The second factory is on schedule to produce N3 or N2 technology. Japan's second factory is planned for 2025 and Europe's first factory is also on schedule."
Non-AI markets and silicon content
- "Smartphones are still experiencing low single-digit growth, but the trend towards higher silicon content (AI features, advanced functions) will drive further growth and shorten replacement cycles."
- "PC is similar: overall unit growth is modest, but AI features in PCs are increasing, leading to advanced nodes and higher ASP."
Export controls and demand from China
- "We believe the new US export rules are manageable. We will apply for special licenses for customers as needed, especially in the automotive, industrial or other non-AI use cases."
- "China remains an important market, but currently only accounts for around 9-10% of sales. We continue to work within the regulatory framework."
Silicon photonics and packaging
- "We've had some technical success with silicon photonics, but we probably won't reach significant volumes for another year to a year and a half."
- "Advanced packaging accounted for over 8% of sales in 2024 and is expected to be over 10% in 2025. Our margins for advanced packaging are still slightly below the company average, but are improving."
- "The demand for CoWoS is extremely high for HPC and AI. Other applications (such as smartphones or PCs) may adopt CoWoS in the future, but for now the focus is on AI."
HBM, partnerships and supply chain
- "We are working with all memory manufacturers to provide advanced logic for HBM controllers. It could be another 1.5 years before significant product production from HBM-related logic makes a big revenue contribution."
- "We do not see TSMC as a bottleneck for AI demand. We are expanding capacity for advanced packaging (CoWoS) as quickly as possible and working with memory partners to align capacity."
Margins & pricing strategy
- "We operate in a capital-intensive business and therefore need a healthy gross margin to continue investing in advanced technologies. Pricing must reflect this."
- "We are seeing several cost headwinds including N3 ramps, N2 R&D, conversions from N5 to N3, inflationary pressures and higher costs overseas. We remain confident that we will achieve a gross margin of ~53% or more in the long term."
- "For wafers produced in the US, we are discussing with customers how they will bear the higher costs. Customers understand that the cost structure is different."
Further questions and answers for CEO/CFO
- "We don't comment on competitors' IDMs, we just say that they are important customers. This business is important to us."
- "AI includes CPUs, GPUs, ASICs and HBM logic for HPC/data centers. Edge AI could create 5-10% more chip area in smartphones/PCs, further driving the adoption of advanced nodes."
- "Currently, SoIC is mainly used in AI applications, but we expect more applications in the future."
- "We expect continued strong growth in the AI sector in 2026, although we have not yet made a specific forecast. Our focus is on ensuring sufficient capacity."
- "We are focused on narrowing the cost gap between factories in the US and Japan, but realistically the scale will remain smaller than Taiwan for years to come."
Final note from the CEO
- "2025 will be another strong year. We expect a 20% increase in sales in US dollars, driven by AI and our advanced technologies. We are ramping 3nm and preparing for N2 and beyond to maintain TSMC's technology leadership."
$ASML (+1,59%) , $ASML (+1,63%) , $NVDA (+5,14%) , $AMD (+1,13%) , $KLAC (+0,34%) , $QCOM (+0,65%) , $INTC (-1,38%) , $MU (+0,01%) ,
Growth in Qualcomm laptop chips
Laptops soon to be cheaper? New processor to pave the way.
Qualcomm made its breakthrough in the Windows-on-ARM market in 2024. The Snapdragon X family has been expanded to include powerful models, and in 2025 the company is aiming to conquer the masses.
The new Snapdragon X chip aims to survive in the highly competitive entry-level Windows computer segment, not only for laptops but also for desktop PCs in the lower to mid-range price segment. At CES 2025, Qualcomm presented its new Snapdragon X platform, which is part of a series of AI innovations from the company.
Growth in laptop chips from Qualcomm
For the launch of the Snapdragon X processors, Qualcomm has highlighted major improvements compared to older Intel processors. However, there were no concrete comparisons with the latest Intel Core or AMD Ryzen chips. Nevertheless, we can assume the same energy efficiency of the higher-class ARM chips, even if the performance figures for CPU and GPU are lower.
One notable aspect of the new chips is the support for AI-powered applications. Qualcomm emphasizes that over 50 apps are accelerated by the integrated NPU (Neural Processor Unit). These include professional content creation tools and exclusive apps that use the Hexagon NPU. With a performance of 45 TOPS for AI applications, the new chips qualify for Microsoft's "Copilot+" branding.
This is a first for the Snapdragon X family. The new laptop chips will also power desktop PCs after a development set was previously canceled. You can look forward to ARM-based devices that will enter the mini PC market. Brands such as Dell and Lenovo are planning to launch the first laptops and desktops with the new processor as early as early 2025.
AI trends in other markets
However, Qualcomm did not only remain active in the PC sector. Numerous announcements for other areas were also presented at CES 2025, including mobility, smart home and B2B solutions. The central theme of 2024 remains unchanged: Artificial intelligence.
Qualcomm's in-house exhibition Snapdragon Summit: the summary
For the Digital Chassis automotive platform, which focuses on connected vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), there were new partnerships with companies such as Alpine, Amazon, Hyundai Mobis and even Royal Enfield. Qualcomm used CES to demonstrate its latest self-driving technologies in collaboration with BMW.
In the smart home sector, the company announced plans to enter the smart TV market, which is currently dominated by Taiwanese rivals such as MediaTek. The QCS8550 platform promises AI-powered processing and fast connectivity for TVs, including support for the AV1 codec.
https://www.inside-digital.de/news/laptops-bald-guenstiger-neuer-prozessor-soll-den-weg-ebnen
Xiaomi is said to have reached a milestone: Own smartphone chip to give Qualcomm a run for its money
Xiaomi currently relies primarily on Qualcomm and MediaTek chips when it comes to smartphone processors. However, the manufacturer now wants to follow the example of Samsung and Google and focus more on developing its own chips.
The processor is one of the most expensive components in smartphone production - partly because almost all manufacturers are dependent on Qualcomm and MediaTek. In recent years, more and more reports have emerged that Qualcomm in particular is diligently increasing the purchase prices for Snapdragon chips. It is therefore not surprising that manufacturers such as Samsung and Google are increasingly relying on in-house chip production. Google has been relying on its own Tensor chips for several years, while Samsung equips almost all Galaxy smartphones with Exynos chips.
Xiaomi chip with 3 nm production
Xiaomi now also wants to enter the chip business and become less dependent on Qualcomm and MediaTek. The Chinese state media has now reported that Xiaomi has achieved success in this respect: the manufacturer is said to have developed its own chip, which is produced using the advanced 3-Nm manufacturing process. Mass production is also said to be in the planning stage.
It is not yet clear what the Xiaomi SoC will be called or how powerful it will be. It is also not yet known when the first smartphone with the in-house development will be launched on the market. If mass production starts quickly, we should see the first phones with the chip as early as next year. Personally, I suspect that the Xiaomi SoC will initially be found in the mid-range.
Huawei as a role model?
Xiaomi is not the first Chinese manufacturer to develop its own smartphone chips. Huawei has also tried to produce its own high-end processors with the Kirin processors. Although the company was making good progress, the US sanctions brought development to an abrupt halt. Otherwise, most manufacturers have so far only ventured into smaller chips, for example for battery optimization.
Qualcomm does not violate Arm license agreement
$QCOM (+0,65%) . $ARM (+5,22%)
The lawsuit between chip manufacturer Qualcomm and architecture design company Arm has come to an end: A court in Delaware has acquitted Qualcomm of allegations of violating Arm's licensing agreements, as reported by Bloomberg and others. The background to this are accusations by Arm that Qualcomm should have negotiated a new license agreement with the takeover of Nuvia.
At the time, Nuvia had negotiated a technology license (TLA) with Arm for the use of finished IP blocks (intellectual property) and an architecture license (ALA). This enabled Nuvia to develop its Arm CPU cores (Oryon), which Qualcomm uses in its Snapdragon X and, more recently, Snapdragon 8 chips following the takeover.
Qualcomm itself received technology and architecture licenses from Arm, albeit on different terms. As a start-up, Nuvia had received cheaper licenses, but the royalties per chip sold were higher. According to Arm's argumentation, Qualcomm would have had to negotiate new licenses after the takeover of Nuvia. Qualcomm had also applied for such a license transfer, but wanted to keep Nuvia's license terms - which Arm rejected.
Jury reached a partial agreement
At the end of the negotiations, Arm made Qualcomm two offers: Either the Oryon developers would no longer work on Arm designs for two years or Qualcomm would pay $135 million for new licenses. Qualcomm subsequently broke off negotiations.
After two days of discussions, in which there was apparently a stalemate in the meantime, the jury was able to agree that Arm's claims against Qualcomm were unjustified. The jurors could not agree on the question of whether Nuvia had breached the license agreement with Arm. According to the presiding judge Maryelle Noreika, this can be renegotiated at a later date.
https://www.golem.de/news/chips-qualcomm-verstoesst-nicht-gegen-arm-lizenzabkommen-2412-191941.html
FOMO is getting into me
Couldn't resist! I get fomo when the market crushes.
Bought some $QCOM (+0,65%) and $EQQQ (+0,74%)
Might add some $BTC (-1,92%) , $SOL (+2,27%) and $ETH (-1,47%)
Overview of Semiconductor Manufacturing and Chipmaking Tools Markets
Smartphones, smart cars, LED lighting displays, gaming devices, and countless other Internet of Things (IoT) devices all share a common foundation: semiconductors. These technologies wouldn't exist without semiconductors. The invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 sparked the Third Industrial Revolution, propelling the world into the digital age. Today, everything digital relies on semiconductors, making them the backbone of our increasingly connected world.
Digitalization is pervasive and is expected to continue expanding. As a result, the amount of data that needs to be stored, processed, and transmitted is growing exponentially. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and its integration into everyday workflows has further fueled the demand for computing power. To keep pace with this demand, semiconductor production must increase in both volume and capability. Additionally, the significance of the semiconductor equipment market cannot be overstated, as it plays a crucial role in enabling these advancements in semiconductor technology.
Moore’s Law, which predicts that computing efficiency should double every two years, highlights the need for continuous innovation in semiconductor technology to meet the demands of new and emerging technologies. According to Pat Gelsinger, CEO of Intel Corp., semiconductor manufacturing and design will play a role in global geopolitics over the next few decades, akin to the significance of oil production in the last 50 years.
The world faces a significant challenge: ensuring an adequate supply of advanced semiconductors. But who is responsible for this? Who are the key players in the semiconductor market? This article aims to unravel the complexity of semiconductor production and introduce you to the major companies and countries driving this critical industry. While my expertise in engineering is limited, I am confident that by the end of this article, you will understand why companies involved in semiconductor production are so attractive to investors.
—————————————————————————
Market Structure of the Semiconductor Industry
The semiconductor market is highly complex and structured around several key segments that encompass the entire supply chain. The market is structured as follows:
Design and IP (Intellectual Property)
- Fabless Companies: These companies focus on the design and development of semiconductor chips but do not manufacture them. They outsource manufacturing to foundries. Examples include Qualcomm $QCOM (+0,65%) , Qualcomm $NVDA (+5,14%) , and Advanced Micro Devices $AMD (+1,13%).
- IP Providers: These companies develop and license intellectual property (IP) cores that are used in semiconductor designs. ARM Holdings, for example, licenses its processor designs to various chipmakers.
Semiconductor Manufacturing
- Foundries: These companies specialize in manufacturing semiconductor wafers and chips designed by fabless companies. They operate large-scale fabrication plants, often called fabs. Key players include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company $TSM (+1,43%) , GlobalFoundries, and Samsung Foundry.
- Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs): These companies handle both design and manufacturing of semiconductors. They own and operate their own fabs. Intel, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology are prominent IDMs.
Equipment and Materials Suppliers
- Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers: These companies supply the machinery and tools required for semiconductor manufacturing, including lithography machines, etching equipment, and testing machines. Key players include $ASML (+1,59%) ASML, $AMAT (+1,29%) Applied Materials, and$LRCX (+1,18%) Lam Research.
- Materials Suppliers: These companies provide the raw materials necessary for semiconductor production, such as silicon wafers, chemicals, and gases. Companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical and SUMCO are major suppliers in this segment.
The combined revenues from all segments, along with contributions from smaller beneficiaries, make up the total semiconductor market. In 2023, the market was valued at $544 billion and is projected to grow to approximately $1.14 trillion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.64% over the forecast period from 2024 to 2033.
—————————————————————————
TSMC is the largest semiconductor manufacturer with over 70% of share of the market
In the semiconductor manufacturing market, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) holds the largest share, accounting for around 60%. Samsung and GlobalFoundries have market shares of approximately 10% and 5%, respectively. These figures highlight that over 70% of the world's semiconductors are produced in Asia, with 60% coming from Taiwan alone.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, and with semiconductor production heavily concentrated in Asia, even minor disruptions led to a significant chip shortage. This situation served as a wake-up call, exposing the world's heavy reliance on these critical components and the fragility of the supply chain. Consequently, the semiconductor market is highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and economic conflicts, such as export/import tariffs and sanctions. These measures can restrict direct sales or limit manufacturers' access to essential raw materials and chipmaking tools, further exacerbating supply chain vulnerabilities.
—————————————————————————
Key Players in Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company NASDAQ: $TSM (+1,43%)
TSMC is poised to cement its leadership of the industry by acquiring more advanced photolithography equipment in the coming decade. Data from SEMI highlights its ambitious trajectory, indicating a potential doubling of its advanced-nodes capacity in the coming eight years, the fastest among the leading trio of firms. TSMC has upgraded its technology node approximately every 24-36 months since 2014. TSMC's capital expenditure (CapEx) intensity is about 35% of its revenue. With an expected revenue growth rate of 8.5% annually over the next decade and maintaining a CapEx intensity of 35%, TSMC could potentially allocate around $400 billion to equipment investments during this period.
TSMC’s comprehensive suite of advanced packaging services, ranging from 2D to 3D solutions, is set to attract strong demand from leading chip designers such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Tesla. These services are expected to cater to key sectors including AI, cloud computing, and smartphones.
TSMC's sourcing strategy underscores its strong ties to leading global semiconductor suppliers, particularly those from Japan. In 2018-2022, of the 31 suppliers recognized by TSMC's outstanding-performance award, 14 were Japanese, reflecting a clear affinity. The US followed with seven suppliers and Europe with six. Among TSMC's top five suppliers by revenue, ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and Lam Research have consistently won the excellence award for the past five years, underscoring their industry-leading positions and commitment to TSMC. As TSMC expands its manufacturing horizon, these key relationships suggest sustained and potentially increased order flows for the top-tier suppliers.
INTEL NASDAQ: $INTC (-1,38%)
Intel's ambitious foundry plans under its IDM 2.0 strategy, which involves opening its manufacturing capacity to external customers, are expected to drive a significant increase in capital expenditures over the next few years. The company is poised to benefit from US government-led subsidies, particularly through the CHIPS Act, signed into law on August 9, 2022. This legislation provides $52 billion in incentives for semiconductor manufacturing and research in the US, offering crucial support amid escalating trade tensions with China.
In 2022, Intel’s gross capex was $25 billion, representing about 40% of its revenue. This figure is projected to rise to approximately 45% by 2032. Intel is expected to lead its semiconductor-manufacturing counterparts in gross capital intensity over the next few years, although it will remain behind leading peers in terms of absolute capex dollars spent. This investment is set to introduce a range of new technologies, starting with the integration of EUV tools in Intel 4, followed by advanced Foveros packaging, and ultimately the highly anticipated high-NA EUV technology with Intel 18A—a node designed to secure industry leadership for the company.
Beyond cutting-edge node manufacturing, Intel's expertise in packaging—including chiplets, glass substrates, and Foveros packaging—will be a key differentiator for its customers and a competitive advantage for suppliers. Intel is transitioning from its traditional role as an integrated-device manufacturer to become a leading manufacturing supplier for the fabless chip industry. This shift involves a more collaborative approach, with Intel acting as a customer, supplier, and even competitor to the same companies.
As Intel embarks on its first EUV lithography manufacturing node (Intel 4), suppliers of EUV-associated solutions are expected to become key partners, with ASML, the world’s leading EUV toolmaker, being particularly crucial. Although past contract awards do not guarantee future success, suppliers with a history of consistent and repeated contract wins are likely to continue benefiting from growing business with Intel. To date, Intel’s top suppliers have remained relatively stable, with Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, Lam Research, and Senju Metal consistently securing major contracts.
Samsung
Samsung Electronics is expected to account for 20% of global chip investment through 2032, focusing on logic, DRAM, and NAND chips. The company aims to produce 1.4-nm chips by 2027 and is advancing with 5-nm, 4-nm, and 3-nm technologies. It leads in DRAM with EUV technology and may adopt high-NA EUV tools for 1-nm chips by 2030.
Samsung plans to expand production in the US with a $17 billion investment in its Taylor, Texas plant, aiming for 40,000 wafers per month by 2024, and potentially adding another facility by 2027. It might add up to nine fabrication facilities over the next 20 years.
Samsung's capital expenditure for chip manufacturing could rise to $50-$55 billion annually by 2032, up from $37 billion in 2022. The breakdown is projected to be 22% for DRAM, 34% for NAND, and 44% for foundry/IDM.
—————————————————————————
How Much Do Manufacturers Invest?
The semiconductor manufacturing business is highly capital-intensive. The growing demand for data collection, computation, and transfer drives the need for more powerful and energy-efficient chips. To meet this demand, manufacturers must continuously innovate their production processes, requiring substantial investments in fabrication facilities (fabs).
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, semiconductor makers’ capital expenditures could expand from $136 billion to $262 billion in 2032, about 1.9x its level in 2023, mainly because of robust shipments of logic chips. TSMC and Samsung will account for 43% of the industry’s entire capex in 2032.
—————————————————————————
Importance of Miniaturization in Chipmaking
Miniaturization in circuit devices focuses on fitting more transistors onto smaller integrated circuits, which leads to more cost-effective chip production and reduced power consumption. Since semiconductor power consumption is proportional to the square of the drive voltage, lowering the drive voltage results in a substantial decrease in power consumption, achievable through finer wiring patterns.
If transistors were 20 nm in size in 2014, they have already shrunk to 3 nm by 2024. The reduction in transistor size highlights the rapid pace of advancement in semiconductor technology.
Although the benefits of further miniaturization may diminish in terms of performance gains and cost efficiency, its impact on energy efficiency remains significant. Miniaturization will continue to be a crucial focus for semiconductor technology over the next 10-15 years, driving improvements in performance, cost, and energy efficiency.
Moore's Law, which predicts that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years, underscores the importance of miniaturization in meeting the increasing demand for computational power. This trend not only facilitates enhanced performance but also boosts power efficiency, making miniaturization a fundamental strategy for future advancements.
Additionally, miniaturization spurs innovation in fabrication tools. As transistors shrink, the precision and capabilities of manufacturing equipment must evolve accordingly. This continual upgrade of tools ensures that production processes remain state-of-the-art, supporting ongoing progress and innovation in the semiconductor industry. This is why Foundry business is very capital-intensive.
Growing capital expenditure in the absolute form implies the demand for chipmaking tools that manufacturers buy to maintain and renovate their fabs. So, the companies that supply the machinery and tools required for semiconductor manufacturing, including lithography machines, etching equipment, and testing machines will benefit from it. In order to understand the importance of each tool used in the semiconductors' production process, we need to explore the process of production itself.
—————————————————————————
Due to the constraints on the number of images in this post, I will pause here. However, in the next part of this article, I plan to dive deeper into the critical question: What do the leading semiconductor manufacturers need to meet the growing demand?
The answer lies in one key element—the equipment they must upgrade and innovate. In the upcoming article, I will explore the production process in greater detail, highlighting the advanced tools and machinery required to meet this demand. And trust me, without pictures, it will be hard to speak about.
Additionally, I will examine the key suppliers in this space and identify which companies stand to benefit most from the ongoing semiconductor boom. Stay tuned as we explore the technologies and players shaping the future of this high-growth industry.
Let me know in the comments or through reactions if you're interested in the continuation of this article! Your feedback will guide the next steps, so I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Source:
Bloomberg Intelligence
Precedence research
Statista
+ 4
From sand to chip: how is a modern semiconductor made?
Reading time: approx. 10min
1) INTRODUCTION
Since 2023 at the latest and the rapid rise of Nvidia $NVDA (+5,14%) semiconductors and "AI chips" in particular have been the talk of the town. Since then, investors have been chasing after almost every company that has something to do with the manufacture of chips, driving share prices to unimagined heights. However, hardly any investors really know how complex the value chain is within the production of modern chips.
In this article, I will give you an overview of the entire manufacturing process and the companies involved. Even if many of you have a vague idea that the production of modern chips is complex, you will certainly be surprised by how complex it really is in reality.
2) BASIC
The starting point for every chip are so-called wafers [1] - i.e. thin wafers, which usually consist of so-called high-purity monocrystalline silicon. In the field of power semiconductors, which primarily comprises chips for applications with higher currents and voltages, silicon carbide (SiC) or galium nitride (GaN) has recently also been used as the base material for the wafers.
In the so-called front end the actual core components of the chips - the so-called dies - are created and applied to the wafers. The dies are rectangular structures that contain the actual functionality of the later chip. The finished dies are then tested for their functionality and electrical properties. Each die that is found to be good is then integrated into the so-called backend where the individual dies are separated on the wafer. This is followed by the so-called packaging. The individual dies from the front end are then electrically contacted and integrated into a protective housing. In the end, this housing with the contacted die is what is usually called a chip chip.
Now that we have a rough overview of the overall process, let's take a closer look at the individual processes involved in producing the dies on the wafer. This is the area in which most highly complex machines are used and which is usually the most sensitive.
3) FROM SAND TO WAFER
Before wafers made of high-purity silicon can even be produced and the actual process for manufacturing dies can begin, the actual wafer must first be manufactured in almost perfect quality. To do this, quartz sand, which consists largely of silicon dioxide, is reduced with carbon at high temperatures. This produces so-called raw siliconwhich, with a purity of around 96%, is not yet anywhere near the quality required for the production of wafers.
In several chemical processes, which are carried out by Wacker Chemie
$WCH (-2,51%) or Siltronic
$WAF (-0,59%) are used to turn the "impure" silicon into so-called polycrystalline silicon with a purity of 99.9999999%. For every billion silicon atoms, there is then only one foreign atom in the silicon. However, this pure polycrystalline silicon is still not suitable for the production of wafers, as the crystal structure in the silicon is not uniform enough. In order to create the right crystal structure, the polycrystalline silicon is then melted again and a so-called ingotwhich is made from monocrystalline silicon is produced. A comparison between raw silicon and the ingot can be found in the following image [3]:
This ingot is then sawn into thin slices, which are then the final wafers for semiconductor production. The best-known wafer producers are Shin Etsu
$4063, (+0,08%)
Siltronic or GlobalWafers
$6488.
4) FROM THE WAFER TO THE DIE
The wafers described in the previous section can now be used to produce dies. The overall process for producing dies basically consists of applying a large number of layers using various chemical, mechanical and physical processes. The overall process (depending on the product) takes approx. 80 different layers on the wafer, requiring almost 1000 different process steps and 3 months
non-stop production are required [4].
A macroscopic analogy is useful here, which I have also taken from [4]. You can compare the overall process for producing dies with baking a large multi-layer cake. This cake has 80 layers and the recipe for baking consists of 1000 steps. It takes 3 months to make the cake and if even one layer of the cake deviates from the recipe by more than 1%, the whole cake collapses and has to be thrown away.
In the first process steps, the wafer is covered with billions tiny little transistors are created on the wafer, which are then all individually electrically contacted in the following steps. The final steps consist of electrically connecting the transistors to each other, resulting in a complete electrical circuit [4]:
Each individual layer of the approximately 80 layers in the die requires highly specialized processes, which can be roughly summarized as:
- Applying masks: Photolithography, photoresist coating (applying photoresist)
- Apply material: Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD), Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD), Atomic Layer Deposition
- Remove material: Plasma annealing, Wet annealing, Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP)
- Modify material: Ion Implanting, Annealing
- Material cleaning
- Inspecting the layers: Optical, Microscopical, Focused Ion Beam, Defect Inspection
Apply masks
Ultimately, a mask can be thought of as an enlarged copy of the structure of a special layer in the die. These so-called photomasks are then scanned using so-called scanners or steppers "copied" in reduced size onto the wafer. The best-known manufacturer of such lithography systems is ASML
$ASML (+1,59%). It is currently the only producer of lithography systems that make it possible to produce structures smaller than 10 nanometers on the wafer. In today's powerful and modern chips, such as those found in smartphones, AI chips and processors, the smallest structures are around 3 nanometers in size. Other manufacturers of lithography systems for larger structures (10nm and larger) are Canon Electronics
$7739 or Nikon $7731 (-0,52%) .
The photomasks - i.e. the enlarged "copies" of the structures - are produced by companies such as Toppan $7911 (+2,23%) , Dai Nippon Printing
$7912 (+0%) or Hoya $7741 (+0,7%) manufactured. Systems for cleaning the photomasks or for applying the photoresist are produced, for example, by Suss Microtec
$SMHN (+3,32%) for example.
Apply/remove/modify/clean material
As can be seen in the overview above, there are a variety of methods and processes for modifying the material of a particular layer. As a result, there is a lot of different equipment that can handle a process very well with incredible specialization. The best-known and most successful equipment manufacturers include Applied Materials $AMAT (+1,29%), LAM Research
$LRCX (+1,18%), Tokyo Electron (TEL)
$8035, (+0,7%)
Suss Mictrotec, Entegris
$ENTG (+1%) and Axcelis $ACLS (+1,36%).
The material - for example, highly specialized chemicals - is of course also required for production. Companies such as Linde
$LIN (+0,14%), Air Liquide
$AI (+0,5%), Air Products
$APD (-0,02%) and Nippon Sanso
$4091 (+0,9%) are major manufacturers of process gases such as nitrogen, hydrogen and argon.
Inspect
As mentioned, every single layer in the manufacturing process of a die must be perfect in order to obtain a functional die at the end. Any small deviation or foreign particles can impair the functionality of the die. As the function of the die can only be checked precisely on the finished die, it is advantageous to inspect the individual layers for defects and deviations during production. Special machines are required for this, which must be able to do different things depending on the layer. Manufacturers of such machines include KLA
$KLAC (+0,34%) or Onto Innovation
$ONTO (+0,95%).
The following applies to almost all of the companies mentioned in this section: the companies are highly specialized and have quasi-monopolies on the machines for certain process steps. quasi-monopolies. Suitable equipment therefore usually costs several million dollars. In addition, some of the systems are so complex that they can only be serviced by the manufacturer's own service staff, which results in recurring service revenues for every machine sold. As a rule, each machine requires several highly specialized engineers to ensure long-term stable operation.
5) FROM THE DIE TO THE FINISHED CHIP
Once the wafer has been processed, the dies on the wafer are checked for functionality. There is highly specialized equipment for this, so-called probers. These probers test each individual chip several times, if necessary, to check the functionality implemented in the design. Manufacturers of such probers include Teradyne $TER (+0,72%), Keysight Technologies
$KEYS (+0,43%), Onto Innovation or Tokyo Electron. These probers have to control each individual die, some of which are only a few square millimetres in size, and contact the corresponding much smaller test structures with tiny needles. The testing process is sometimes outsourced to entire companies that offer die testing as a complete package. One example of such providers is Amkor Technology
$AMKR (+1,11%).
The processed and tested wafer is now sawn to obtain individual dies. The dies that are found to be good are then integrated into a protective housing in the backend. The dies that have not passed the functionality test are either sorted out or (depending on the error pattern) processed as a variant with reduced functionality similar to those with full functionality. After a final functional test in the package, the chip is ready for use.
6) FOUNDRIES, FABLESS & SOFTWARE
Now that we have an overview of the complex process of manufacturing a chip, let's zoom out a little further to understand which companies perform which tasks in the semiconductor industry.
It's funny that not once in the manufacturing process has the name Nvidia $NVDA (+5,14%) or Apple $AAPL (-1,03%) has been mentioned? Yet they have the most advanced chips, don't they?
The pure production of the chips is done by other companies - so-called foundries. Companies like Nvidia and even AMD $AMD (+1,13%) are in fact fablessThis means that they do not have their own production facilities but only supply the chip design and let the foundries manufacture the actual chip according to their design.
The design of a chip is like the blueprint for production - the foundries then take over the recipe creation and the actual production. There is special software for designing chips. Companies known for this software include Cadance Design
$CDNS (+1,63%) and Synopsys $SNPS (+1,12%). But also the industrial giant Siemens
$SIE (+1,23%) now also supplies software for designing integrated circuits. Synopsys also offers other software for data analysis within foundry production.
Speaking of foundries; the best known foundry is probably TSMC
$TSM, (+1,43%) which is the global market leader in foundries. TSMC designs itself no chips itself and specializes exclusively in the production of the most advanced generations of chips. Another major player that also masters the most advanced structure sizes is Samsung $005930. In contrast to TSMC manufactures Samsung also produces its own designs. Other large foundries are Global Foundries
$GFS, (+0,71%) which was originally a spin-off from AMD and the Taiwanese company United Micro Electronics
$UMC. (+0,43%)
The best-known fabless companies - i.e. companies without their own chip production - are Nvidia, Apple, AMD, ARM Holdings
$ARM, (+5,22%)
Broadcom $AVGO (+2,85%), MediaTek $2454 and Qualcomm $QCOM. (+0,65%) In the meantime Alphabet $GOOGL, (-0,69%)
Microsoft $MSFT, (+1,68%)
Amazon $AMZN (+0,93%) and Meta $META (+0,95%) have designed their own chips for certain functionalities and then have them manufactured in foundries.
In addition to foundries and fabless companies, there are of course also hybrid models, i.e. companies that take on both production and design. The best-known examples of this are, of course, companies such as Intel
$INTC (-1,38%) and Samsung. There is also a whole range of so-called Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)which for the most part only manufacture their own designed chips and do not accept customer orders for production. Well-known companies such as Texas Instruments
$TXN, (+1,19%)
SK Hynix
$000660,
STMicroelectronics
$STMPA, (-0,61%)
NXP Semiconductors
$NXPI, (-0,24%)
Infineon $IFX (-0,66%) and Renesas $6723 (+3,32%) are among the IDMs.
FINAL WORD
The aim of this article was to provide an overview of the complexity of the semiconductor industry. I do not, of course no claim to be complete, as there are of course many other companies that are part of this value chain. As Getquin thrives on active exchange, I'll give you some food for thought to discuss in the comments below the article:
- feel free to link any other companies in the comments if you think I've forgotten any relevant ones
- what was the most surprising new information for you from the article?
- which companies from the article have you never heard of?
- before reading the article, did you know approximately how a modern chip is produced and what steps are necessary for this?
In general, I can recommend the 20-minute YouTube video at [4] to any interested reader. It provides an excellent animated overview of the manufacturing process of modern chips.
Stay tuned,
Yours Nico Uhlig (aka RealMichaelScott)
SOURCES:
[1] Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wafer
[2] https://www.halbleiter.org/waferherstellung/einkristall/
[3] https://solarmuseum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/solarmuseum_org-07917.jpg
[4] Branch Education on YouTube: "How are Microchips Made?" https://youtu.be/dX9CGRZwD-w?si=xeV0TYgJ2iwNOKyO
Apple's 5G modem is said to be worse than Qualcomm's.
It remains exciting with the eternal rivals $AAPL (-1,03%) and $QCOM (+0,65%)
Perhaps Qualcom should launch its own cell phone and notebook on the market. What is your opinion on this?
Also $1810 (-1,41%) Xiaomi is focusing more and more on its own products, is Qualcomm still interesting for you?
Apple is to replace Qualcomm's 5G modems with its own from 2025. According to a report, Apple's modem will be slower, among other things.
According to a media report, Apple's self-developed 5G modem with the internal name Sinope will be less powerful in many functions than current top modems from Qualcomm. As the usually well-informed journalist Mark Gurman from Bloomberg reports, Sinope is said to achieve a downlink of 4 Gbps in laboratory tests.
For comparison: Qualcomm's X80 modem, which is installed in the new Snapdragon 8 Elite SoC, achieves a maximum downlink value of 10 Gbps.
Unlike Qualcomm's X80 modem, Sinope will also not support mmWave, but only the Sub-6 standard. This could lead to problems, especially in the USA, one of Apple's most important markets, as mmWave is often used in large cities there.
According to Gurman, Sinope will only use 4-carrier aggregation, as opposed to the 6- or 8-carrier aggregation used by Qualcomm. The higher the carrier aggregation, the higher the network capacity and correspondingly the higher the speed for users. In return, Apple's modem should achieve better radiation values and facilitate satellite communication. Dual SIM standby is also to be made possible.
Apple's modem development is said to be plagued by problems
Apple has been trying for years to develop its own 5G modem in order to become less dependent on Qualcomm. With its own SoCs, Apple has been setting standards in the smartphone market for years (and now also in the PC market), but the company is still dependent on its long-standing partner Qualcomm for modems.
There are said to have been numerous problems in the development of the modem. Among other things, the prototypes developed so far are said to have been too slow or too inefficient.
However, Apple does not appear to be deviating from its plan to install its own modem in its devices. The first version is to appear in the iPhone SE 4, a smartphone that is not one of the top iPhones.
https://www.golem.de/news/sinope-apples-5g-modem-soll-schlechter-sein-als-qualcomms-2412-191515.html
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