In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (+2,55%)
Intel $INTC (+1,8%)
Salesforce $CRM (+0,69%)
Alphabet $GOOG (+1,03%) and Meta $META (-2,23%) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-0,6%)
Macy's $M (+1,82%)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0,51%) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-0,07%)
and AT&T $T (-0,14%) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0,05%)
Nextera Energy $NEE (+1,64%)
or Xylem $XYL (+0%) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (+2,79%) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0,66%) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (-1,55%) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (+0,79%)

or Teladoc $TDOC (+4,49%) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (-1,3%) and MercadoLibre $MELI (+2,5%) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (+2,01%) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+1,49%)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (-0,27%) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends

+++ News: Heated mood around US health insurers +++

The shares of well-known insurance companies such as $UNH (+1,64%) but also those of competitors $ELV (-0,76%)
$HUM (-2,08%) and $CI (+0,21%) have fallen surprisingly this week. Although the losses are limited, the reasons for this are more than just shocking.

As I reported earlier, the CEO of United Healthcare's insurance division was the victim of a targeted assassination. While the police are now investigating at full speed, the perpetrator is currently the target of downright hero worship on social media. The assassin is repeatedly equated with characters from pop culture such as Batman, Robin Hood or John Wick.

Insults against the victim and his family are also liked and shared thousands of times. It is not just the viciousness of the comments that is frightening - but the fact that, as is so often the case in such instances, the platforms simply let them stand.

Insurers' shares are currently falling because there are fears that there could be further murders of insurance employees. The management of the major insurance companies is alarmed and has hastily removed photos and other personal data of their "C-level executives" from their websites.

Commentary and classification: After the failed assassination attempt on Trump, I'm hardly surprised at the kind of people we're dealing with here. The same people who talk about democracy and human rights in every other sentence are the same people who are now calling for the assassination of their ideological opponents once again. Even a good ESG score doesn't help United Health against so much hatred.

From a purely shareholder perspective, this charged sentiment towards the banking and insurance sector is $JPM (+1,21%) is of course a systemic risk when investing. However, these are not necessarily particularly controversial sectors. Retailers $WMT (-2,1%) pharmaceuticals $PFE (+1,49%)
$CVS (+0,57%) consumer goods manufacturers $KVUE (-0,53%)
$BATS (-0,24%) defense companies $LMT (+0,94%) etc. could soon find themselves in the crosshairs.

If you really want to be absolutely sure of being invested in a politically correct way, simply put your money in Northvolt and make a 90% loss. This also ensures that you can "eat the rich" can no longer be meant.

$BTC (-1,55%) 100,000$ you could often read that in the feed today. But +100% $ZAL (-0,7%) there aren't quite so many anymore 🤣

Besides $BAYN (+0,17%) and $PFE (+1,49%) Zalando was one of my 3 turnaround bets for 2024.

I'll keep quiet about Bayer, Pfizer is bobbing along with a slight plus. But Zalando is fun, especially because it still has a way to go.

Weekly chart

Daily chart

I'm already looking at what my 2025 turnaround candidates could be🤓

Detailed stock analysis of Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-17,74%)
& the competition

1. sales shares and margins by product (Q3 2024)

1.1 GLP-1-based diabetes treatments: Ozempic and Rybelsus

-Revenue share: DKK 34.94 billion (~49% of total revenue).

-Growth: +15 % YoY at constant exchange rates.

-Product characteristics:

- These drugs belong to the group of GLP-1 receptor agonists. They regulate blood glucose levels, promote insulin release and contribute to weight management.

- Ozempic in particular is a world-leading drug for type 2 diabetes and is increasingly prescribed off-label for weight loss.

- Rybelsus offers the advantage of being available as an oral GLP-1 therapy, which improves compliance.

-Margin: Profitability is exceptionally high due to high prices and increasing demand in emerging and developed markets.

1.2 Obesity therapies: Wegovy

-Revenue share: DKK 18.8 billion (~26% of total revenue).

-Growth: +55% YoY at constant exchange rates; fastest growing segment.

-Product characteristics:

- Wegovy is based on semaglutide and, according to studies, has the potential to reduce weight by up to 20 %. This significantly reduces the risk of secondary diseases such as cardiovascular disease.

- The market for obesity is growing rapidly as obesity is increasingly recognized as a disease.

-Margin: Very high as Wegovy is an innovative therapy and has limited competition.

1.3 Insulins: Tresiba, Levemir and NovoRapid

-Sales share: DKK 12.51 billion (~18% of total sales).

-Growth: +10 % YoY.

-Product characteristics:

- Tresiba (long-acting), Levemir and NovoRapid (short-acting) cover all needs of type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients.

- Despite growing competition from biosimilars, Novo Nordisk remains the market leader.

-Margin: Stable, but lower than for GLP-1 therapies.

1.4 Rare diseases (e.g. haemophilia, sickle cell disease)

-Revenue share: DKK 4.57 billion (~6 % of total sales).

-Growth: +17 % YoY.

-Product characteristics:

-Mim8 addresses hemophilia A and is safe and well tolerated.

-Etavopivatcurrently in phase 3, has the potential to significantly improve the quality of life of sickle cell patients.

-Margin: Very high, as therapies for rare diseases can often command premium prices.

2. target groups and diseases in focus

2.1 Diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2)

-Epidemiology:

- Worldwide: 537 million people (2023).

- Forecast: 783 million by 2045 (International Diabetes Federation).

-Products:

- GLP-1 receptor agonists are the drug of choice for type 2 diabetes, especially Ozempic.

- Insulins remain essential for type 1 diabetes.

-Target groups:

- Type 2 diabetics (90 % of cases). Especially patients in industrialized nations such as the USA, where the prevalence of obesity and diabetes is increasing.

2.2 Obesity

-Epidemiology:

- Over 800 million people worldwide; forecast: 1 billion by 2030 (WHO).

-Products:

- Wegovy is the market leader and shows weight reductions of 15-20% in clinical studies.

-Target groups:

- Patients with obesity or overweight, particularly in affluent countries with a high average BMI.

2.3 Rare diseases

-Epidemiology:

- Haemophilia A: 400,000 people affected worldwide.

- Sickle cell disease: Over 6 million people affected, mainly in Africa.

-Products:

- Therapies such as Mim8 and Etavopivat cover important therapeutic gaps.

3 Competitor analysis

3.1 Eli Lilly $LLY (+1,78%)

-Mounjaro (tirzepatide):

- Dual agonist (GLP-1/GIP) that is very effective for both diabetes and obesity.

- Studies show weight losses of 20-25%, which positions Mounjaro as a direct competitor to Wegovy and Ozempic.

-Long-term strengths:

- Eli Lilly has a strong pipeline and plans to launch several new products over the next few years.

3.2 Pfizer and Amgen $PFE (+1,49%)
$AMGN (+0,51%)

-Pfizer: Oral GLP-1 therapies could compete with Rybelsus.

-Amgen: Research focus on innovative obesity drugs such as AMG 133.

3.3 Sanofi (insulin market) $SAN (-0,6%)

-Strengths: Strong position in the global insulin market.

-Weaknesses: Declining sales due to the market shift towards GLP-1 therapies.

4. financial strength and margins

Sales (Q3 2024)71.31 bn.

-Gross margin: 84,6 % (Q3 2024).

-Operating profit: DKK 33.8 billion (+21% compared to the previous year)

-Future potential: Sales in the obesity segment are expected to continue to dominate growth, particularly due to increasing acceptance and introduction of new drugs such as CagriSema.

Novo Nordisk will remain the long-term leader, although the competition (especially Eli Lilly) is becoming increasingly innovative. The combination of market leadership, product innovation and financial strength secures Novo Nordisk a key role in the global healthcare market.

Analyst updates, 29.11.

⬆️⬆️⬆️

- BOFA raises the price target for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 48 to EUR 52. Neutral. $ENR (+2,08%)

- GOLDMAN raises the target price for DEUTSCHE TELEKOM from EUR 37 to EUR 39. Buy. $DTE (-0,92%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for PFIZER from USD 27 to USD 29. Hold. $PFE (+1,49%)

- JPMORGAN raises the target price for JUST EAT TAKEAWAY from GBP 14.15 to GBP 16.02. Overweight. $TKWY (+0,68%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the target price for RATIONAL from EUR 800 to EUR 810. Hold. $RAA (+1,18%)

- BOFA upgrades SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC from Underperform to Neutral and raises target price from 175 EUR to 255 EUR. $SU (-0,75%)

- BOFA raises the price target for NORDEX from 17.90 EUR to 19.30 EUR. Buy. $NDX1 (+0,57%)

- BERENBERG raises the target price for ZALANDO from EUR 29.70 to EUR 38. Buy. $ZAL (-0,7%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH upgrades WACKER NEUSON from Hold to Buy. Target price EUR 17. $WAC (-0,93%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH raises the price target for ALZCHEM from EUR 75 to EUR 77.50. Buy. $ACT (-1,9%)

- ODDO BHF upgrades NORMA GROUP from Neutral to Outperform. Target price EUR 18.10. $NOEJ (-1,36%)

- BOFA raises the price target for KNORR-BREMSE from EUR 68 to EUR 70. Underperform. $KBX (+0,91%)

- BOFA upgrades ABB to Buy. $ABBNY (+0,22%)

- BOFA upgrades KION from Neutral to Buy and raises target price from EUR 39.50 to EUR 48.50. $KGX (+0,89%)

- BOFA upgrades JUNGHEINRICH from Underperform to Neutral and raises target price from EUR 24 to EUR 26. $JUN3 (-0,4%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for GLOBAL FASHION GROUP from EUR 0.23 to EUR 0.27. Hold. $GFG (-1,47%)

- HSBC raises the price target for DEUTSCHE BÖRSE from EUR 230 to EUR 236. Buy. $DB1 (-0,38%)

⬇️⬇️⬇️

- KEPLER CHEUVREUX lowers the price target for HUGO BOSS from EUR 59 to EUR 41. Buy. $BOSS (+0,51%)

- BOFA downgrades GENERALI from Neutral to Underperform and raises target price from EUR 26 to EUR 27. $G (-0,26%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for L'OREAL from EUR 335 to EUR 280. Sell. $OR (-0,71%)

- BOFA lowers the target price for BAE SYSTEMS from GBP 13.75 to GBP 12.40. Underperform. $BA. (-0,57%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for ALLGEIER from EUR 22 to EUR 19. Buy. $0RQZ

Portfolio feedback requested

I (early 50s, so still a good 15 years to work on the portfolio) would like to hear your opinion. I've been with Trade Republic since January, mainly because of the 4%. But then I started saving a few ETFs, then buying and selling a few shares. So I played around. At the moment my portfolio has three or rather four different parts. Let's put it this way, the family treasury has given me around €10k to play with. The rest remains in call money.

Of this 10K I would like to have a part to play, individual stocks, §IWDA, other ETFs that are close to me because of my work, XRP.

But that's not my topic here.

I want to build a dividend portfolio. Reduce working hours or improve pension, we'll see where the journey takes me. For now, I would reinvest all payouts.

The composition from December would look like this:

$MCD (-0,31%) 15%

$EXSH (-0,34%) 9%

$MAIN (+0,27%) 9%

$ARCC (+0,78%) 9%

$HTGC (+0,38%) 9%

$O (+1,22%) 9%

$CSWC (+0,32%) 5%

$PFE (+1,49%) 5%

$KAP (-2,04%) 5%

$JEGP (-0,04%) 5%

$TGT (-0,34%) 3,5%

$GAIN (-1,01%) 5%

$QYLE (-1,41%) 5%

$VHYL (+0,11%) 1%

What do you think about the composition? Should something go in/out?

My aim would be to distribute the monthly distributions evenly. I'll have to play around with the ratios a bit.

My problem is that the months of January, February, April and May look too poor. What would you suggest that pays out in these months?

Roast me!