Pfizer $PFE (+1,2%) has discontinued the development of its oral weight loss pill Danuglipron. The reason: patients in clinical trials suffered from side effects such as nausea and vomiting. Although the drug was originally seen as a potential competitor to Wegovy and Ozempic, Pfizer no longer sees any commercial potential due to its poor tolerability. Instead, the company intends to concentrate on other active ingredients for weight reduction, such as GLP-1-based therapies. The decision marks a setback in Pfizer's strategy to gain a stronger foothold in the booming market for obesity drugs.

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The news is based on what I personally consider to be reputable sources. No investment advice. Follow me for more updates!

In this article, I would like to give my personal assessment and opinion of some established pharmaceutical companies.

As a naive and uninformed person, I always believed that the pharmaceutical sector would play a major role in the future.

Now I have taken a closer look at the companies on the basis of fundamental key figures and have come to a very sobering conclusion.

However, I only evaluate the past and draw conclusions for the future from the past. I cannot evaluate and assess something like a pipeline because I lack the understanding and specialist knowledge.

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I looked at the following companies:

Bayer $BAYN (+3,54%)

Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%)

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,01%)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-0,7%)

Roche $ROG (-0,66%)

Pfizer $PFE (+1,2%)

Merck $MRK (+3,78%)

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Let's start with the most popular title:

$NOVO B (-0,7%)

Novo Nordisk has the best fundamentals of all the stocks we looked at. The growth is right, the margins have been consistently above 30% since 2013 (unique selling point) and the return on equity is very high.

However, there has been disproportionately strong sales growth in the last 3 years. Probably due to GLP-1?

The question here is whether this growth can be maintained and whether sales can remain at this level? These uncertainties, as well as the regularization of GLP-1, could partly explain the fall in the share price in recent months. The valuation ratios are still quite sporty, but could this be justified in view of growth and margins? The quarterly figures will be very interesting.

I will start a savings plan and continue to monitor the shares.

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$BAYN (+3,54%)

Bayer AG has lost over 60% of its share price since the beginning of 2023. In my naivety, I thought that the share was now attractively valued. In fact, it has a price/sales ratio of just 0.47% and yet I would not invest.

If you look at the balance sheets of the last 10 years and further back, growth and profitability, you can see that the share has always been fundamentally weak. At best, it may be interesting for a trade, but I would not invest.

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$LLY (+2,83%)

Eli Lilly is basically a good company with solid figures. However, there have been one or two ups and downs over the years and balance sheets. If the company had invested in 2017 despite the poor figures at the time, it would be up several hundred percent today.

2024 was a record year for Eli Lilly with a 32 % increase in sales to around USD 45 billion. The main reason for this growth was the strong sales figures for diabetes drugs and weight loss injections.

In my opinion, the share is heavily overvalued despite its qualities and lags behind Novo Nordisk in many respects (fundamentally). I expect a significant correction here. This may not occur until 2026 or 27, but a price/earnings ratio of over 70 is in no way justified.

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$JNJ (-0,01%)

I think Johnson & Johnson is a conglomerate, as it also sells consumer goods. It has little to no growth, quite good profitability and a dividend of over 3%🤑.

I guess you don't necessarily have to own this share, as it doesn't stand out from the others in any way (but it does, it beats Bayer, for example, across the board) but it could possibly be a defensive stock for stability, if you value that sort of thing, and the dividend could also be a decisive factor if you buy it at the right time.

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$PFE (+1,2%)

Pfizer is clearly a corona profiteer that achieved record sales in 2021 and 22. After Corona, the awakening and a share price drop of over 50 %.

From 2010-2020, sales even declined and margins ranged from 12% to over 40%. I suspect that the turn around to the pre-corona level could succeed, so my price target is $29-44.

Here, too, I do not see a quality company, not a must-have and at best a trade or the dividend, which is currently over 6%, could also be interesting here.

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$ROG (-0,66%)

I thought only gold and chocolate came from Switzerland. That's not the case, because there is also Roche, not Ferrero Rocher but the pharmaceutical company. You would have to read up on this and find out more, because there seem to have been serious capital measures since 2022, which make the fundamental data look very negative.

So it looks (if the data from my data provider is correct) that Roche has not been profitable since 22. Operating profit in 2024 has fallen to a level similar to the lows of 2015 and 17. Cash flow and return on capital are negative and there has actually been no sales growth since 2019.

If you look at the company from 2011-2021, they were actually quite solidly positioned.

I don't want to make a clear judgment on Roche because I don't think I have enough information to be able to correctly interpret these figures for the last three years, because what looks like a pile of 💩 (chocolate) could also be an opportunity. But I don't know.

Incidentally, it looks very similar at Novartis $NOVN (+0,04%) looks very similar and so I am encouraged that there may be a political geographic background that needs to be identified in order to value these stocks correctly.

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$MRK (+3,78%)

Merck shares are in the midfield. From 2010-2018, the figures even declined. Continuous growth has been observed since 2018, with record sales in the last 3 years in particular.

The share appears to be relatively cheaply valued with a P/E ratio of less than 14.

For me, the question remains whether this profitability is sustainable and whether a strong year will not be followed by another weak one. Personally, the risk/return ratio for Merck would be too low for me.

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My conclusion:

I will keep my distance from the pharmaceutical sector, as I am not in a position to assess a pipeline and there could always be medical breakthroughs that I am unable to predict.

On the other hand, expected successes can also fail to materialize or lead to failures and economic losses due to official regulations.

In addition, research is very time and capital intensive and there is no guarantee of success.

I will be satisfied with the share of the pharmaceutical sector in my broadly diversified ETF and, contrary to the above conclusion, start a savings plan on Novo Nordisk 🤓

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Thanks for reading and I welcome additions, corrections and opinions, but please don't be so hard on me. 😇

$SAN (-1,85%)
$NOVO B (-0,7%)
$PFE (+1,2%)

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Sanofi's hemophilia therapy on Friday. This paves the way for a treatment method for patients with rare blood clotting disorders. The therapy, which is marketed under the name Qfitlia, is new to the spectrum. However, Novo Nordsik and Pfizer are also active in this market.

Qfitlia is a therapy that is administered under the skin. It is intended to help prevent bleeding and reduce antithrombin levels. Qfitlia is approved for haemophilia patients aged 12 and over. According to estimates by the National Hemophilia Foundation, there are 30,000 to 33,000 haemophilia patients in the USA and around one million people worldwide are affected by the disease.

According to Reuters, the newly approved therapy is the first in its class to lower antithrombin levels and is suitable for people with haemophilia A or B with or without inhibitors.

Compared to the already approved therapies from Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, the Sanofi therapy has to be administered much less frequently, which makes treatment easier. Specifically, Qfitlia will only need to be administered every two months, while treatments with Pfizer's Hympavzi injection need to be administered weekly and Novo Nordisk's Alhemo even daily.

"Today's approval of Qfitlia is a significant step forward for hemophilia patients, as the therapy needs to be administered less frequently than other existing options," said FDA member Tanya Wroblewski as part of the approval decision.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/sanofi-fda-gibt-gruenes-licht-so-reagieren-die-aktien-der-rivalen--20377529.html

$PFE (+1,2%) thrown out with approx. -24%.

Reallocation to something more sensible.

If the 🔪 falls, we buy more via a savings plan.

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

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In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

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The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,63%) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-0,54%) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (+0,1%) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-1,12%) D.R. Horton $DHI (-0,37%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (-0,82%) Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+1,46%) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) and General Motors $GM (+0,56%) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) , U.S. Steel $X (+2,25%) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (-1,06%) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (+1,2%) Moderna $MRNA (+0,63%) and Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (+0,12%) , Chevron$CVX (-0,13%) and Expand Energy $CHK (+0,28%) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) and Texas Instruments$TXN (+1,12%) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,28%) NVIDIA $NVDA (+4,72%) , AMD $AMD (+2,72%) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (+10,24%) , Ford $F (+0,11%) , General Motors $GM (+0,56%) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (+0,86%) and Caterpillar $CAT (-0,28%) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0,63%) , Target $TGT (+1,34%) and Nike $NKE (-0,18%) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+0,17%) Duke Energy $DUK (+0,4%) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-1,3%) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0,01%) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (-0,92%) , Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,83%) , Nucor $NUE (+1,02%) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

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Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html