$NVO (-0,97%)
$NOVO B (-0,96%)

• Real-world study: 57% lower risk of heart attack, stroke, or death with Wegovy in obese patients w/ CV disease

• Strengthens case for broad adoption in obesity & cardiometabolic care

• Adds fuel to rivalry with Eli Lilly’s $LLY tirzepatide in weight-loss market

Introduction

It has now been a little bit over a month since I published my first portfolio review. I started this portfolio on July 23 and will continue to share monthly recaps from now to, hopefully, a very long time. My goal with these updates is simple: transparency. They are to document performance regularly, explain my investment process, and create a track record of decisions that I can learn from and reflect on over time. I will focus on what worked and what did not, while keeping the macro picture and long-term perspective over short-term volatility in mind. As I pointed out in my last review, I strive to become a hedge fund manager, and while there is still a long way to go, and many lessons to be learned, this portfolio will be my primary credential for the future.

Unlike a traditional investor letter, this recap is designed to be professional yet approachable, so it can serve as a portfolio log and as a resource or inspiration for anyone interested in equity investing. Yes, I am doing this primarily because I love investing and diving into company reports and stock market news, but I also want to share my journey and hopefully be able to use my passion in a professional setting. Every month, I will share performance vs. benchmark indices, most suitable to asset allocation, highlights of the strongest and weakest performance, and any changes I have made to my portfolio. This is not about sugarcoating results. Since I genuinely want to improve, there is no point in trying to sweet talk mistakes and slip-ups. Over time, this series should build a narrative of my investing journey, through wins, theses, and most importantly long-term performance and improvement. My daily commentary usually serves as an opinion piece on companies on my watchlist or the most recent macro news, while these monthly recaps are intended to provide a comprehensive guide on my investing principles and execution.

Portfolio Performance

For the month of August, my portfolio delivered a strong +5.25% total return. Not a bad start for month one, but it is always important to remember that short-term gains are not the most meaningful metric. Consistency is key. Nevertheless, to put this month’s return in perspective, here are important benchmarks:

• S&P 500: +3.33%
• Nasdaq 100: +2.42%
• MSCI ACWI: +3.84%

This means the portfolio outperformed both global and U.S. benchmarks in its first full month, which is encouraging.

However, the performance was not linear. The first few days were negative, but as the month progressed, companies reported earnings and news surfaced, several key holdings – particularly those in healthcare and fintech – drove strong upward momentum. This led to an intersection between my portfolio performance and benchmarks around the middle of the month. Since then, the portfolio has outpaced the market’s broader rally.

The outperformance cannot be attributed to one single stock, but rather a combination of multiple holdings reacting strongly. This is exactly how I want my portfolio to behave: diversified enough to avoid cluster risk, but concentrated enough to benefit meaningfully from each of my highest-conviction ideas. It is crucial to strike the balance between diversification and conviction, without sacrificing returns or risk management.

Allocation Snapshot

The portfolio currently consists of 18 equity holdings plus cash, with cash representing the single largest allocation at 35.1%.

This is a short breakdown of my portfolio:

• Cash: 35.1%
• Largest equity holding: Eli Lilly (LLY) at 5.5%
• Other top allocations include: UNH (4.8%), ASML (4.6%), SLB (4.6%), DLocal (4.2%), Dynatrace (4.1%), Gambling.com (4.1%), Salesforce (4.0%), Novo Nordisk (3.9%), and Nu (3.7%).

The high cash balance is intentional. As this is the first month of the portfolio, it is important not to rush into not-well-enough researched positions only to reduce the cash quota. Even for my highest-conviction positions, like LLY or ASML, I want to remain disciplined with entry prices and only buy on pullbacks, after I initiate my first tranche. As I emphasized in my last report, I aim to invest opportunistically in great companies at discounts, and reduce my cash balance to below 10% by the end of the year. In fact, over the course of August I already reduced my cash position from 56% to 35%, by adding to and opening new positions, especially during the first half of the month.

However, I am not in a rush to close my cash holding right now, since I am convinced that this rally off the April lows is highly unsustainable, considering the economic tensions and tariff regime in place. AI hype is driving this rally, and if the enthusiasm cools down, some interesting opportunities could present.

Since I aim for high returns with acceptable risk management, the exposure to fast-growing industries like fintech and software comes naturally. However, I also own more defensive players in the energy and healthcare spaces that, in my opinion, offer a healthy risk/reward ratio not recognized enough by the market. Indeed, some of the companies I hold fall on the more expensive spectrum, but they also boast immense growth and potential for the future. My focus does not lie on momentum or trends, but rather fundamentals and underlying prospects.

Strongest & Weakest Performers

Strongest performers:

• DLocal posted strong earnings in a volatile market environment, which led to a jump in the stock of more than 40% the day after. I remain extremely bullish on the company, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, reflecting a more than fair valuation even after the recent rally. The fintech disruptor is revolutionizing payment solutions across emerging markets, with still a massive TAM left.

• UnitedHealth recovered more than 30% from the lows hit at the beginning of the month, due to improving sentiment and the news of several super-investors, most notably Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, opening a position in the healthcare giant. The company has a very healthy balance sheet and a strong moat as the largest health insurer worldwide, and that is not even taking into account all its other ventures.

• Nubank outperformed on strong user growth (over 127 million customers across Latin America) and rising profitability. As the leading neobank in Latin America, Nu delivers >25% annual growth and holds a stellar position. The TAM is hard to overlook, as the neobank operates in one of the most underbanked regions worldwide.

Weakest performers:

• Salesforce slightly recovered from recently hit lows, while still underperforming the broader tech sector due to a perceived lack of AI implementation. However, Salesforce is the largest provider of CRM services worldwide and in a very good position for a recovery if any good news hits. The company has not taken part in the recent rally and could be in for a rebound.

• Gambling.com sold off after solid earnings due to a cautious outlook. Online betting is inherently cyclical, and the current economic situation does not look great. However, Gambling.com is already trading at an extremely cheap valuation. Somehow, the market still finds a way to send the stock further down.

In both cases, I view the weakness as sentiment-driven rather than structural. Investors’ confidence is shattered at the moment. However, my theses on these companies have not changed. I think both of them are misunderstood and victims of short-term focus, rather than the broader picture.

Portfolio Activity

Because this was the first month, most activity was centered around building initial positions. I deliberately capped position sizes at ~3–5% each, which allows me to add more over time if conviction grows or valuations improve.

• New Buys: SLB, FTNT, DT, CDLR
• Adds: CRM, GAMB, LLY, UNH
• Sells: M12
• Cash: Meaningfully reduced from >55% to ~35%

My portfolio is still “under construction.” While I reduced my cash position and invested aggressively, especially after earnings hit, I still hold a significant chunk of my portfolio in cash, which I plan to reduce by the end of the year. When I decide to buy into a company, I always do it in tranches and build a position over time, rather than buying all at once. Take Lilly for example: I opened an initial position in July and then bought multiple times this month after the earnings-related dip, and now I am almost 10% in the green with the position.

Market & Macro Context

Markets in August were shaped mainly by speculation around interest rate cuts and the earnings season, both of which contributed positively to my return. Several of my holdings jumped after stellar earnings, while others fell and therefore created opportunities to add, increasing long-term upside. Economic data was two-edged: while unemployment continued to increase, so did GDP, and tariff impacts were largely absorbed by corporations. My portfolio specifically profited from improving sentiment around some beaten-up healthcare names and increasing momentum for fintech and Latin American stocks. August has also been a good month for many tech investors due to continued growth and AI momentum.

Outlook

September historically is a very difficult month for markets. These are the key catalysts I will be looking at over the next month:

Jerome Powell has hinted at a possible rate cut at the next meeting, which the market has now priced in. It seems likely, at this point, that interest rates will be falling. However, if the Fed has a sudden change of heart, it could mean a cold awakening for stocks across the board.

On the other hand, if the most likely scenario – a rate cut – comes in, the already started shift from tech stocks to more cyclical industries profiting from lower interest rates could get a boost in September.

Apart from that, I still wholeheartedly believe that the current recovery rally from April lows is highly unsustainable and will eventually cool down, which could create buying opportunities. Whether that will be in September or a later month, I cannot determine. However, it seems strange to have such bullish sentiment ruling the markets, considering the tariff-inflicted strain on the economy. If signs of a cooling cycle thicken, markets could tumble very quickly.

Nevertheless, I am not worried about a broader pullback, since conviction is unwavering for the holdings in my portfolio. If anything, selloffs create possibilities to add to existing holdings or initiate new positions at attractive entry prices.

Closing Thoughts

This first month has been a promising start, with outperformance vs. benchmarks, and multiple adds to my highest-conviction positions. My strategy of investing opportunistically has proven correct so far. However, it has only been one month and I understand that markets fluctuate, which means that patience is key. While it is tempting to deploy cash all at once in order to ride the rally, that is not how I play the game.

In my daily comments I talked about many companies on my watchlist, some of which I will probably never own, because they do not reach my entry prices. That is not important. I have my eyes on countless stocks and continue to research new companies every day. There are always opportunities in the market, and often they are the ones most under fire.

Furthermore, I look forward to continuing this series monthly. Transparency, accountability, and consistency are the main goals. I strive to be the best investor I can possibly be, and this is my log. The target is as clear as ever: beating the market consistently and transforming that experience into the real world.

$ACWU (+0,63%)
$LYPS (+0,45%)
$CSNDX (+0,3%)
$LLY (+0,19%)
$UNH (+2,52%)
$ASML (+1,46%)
$ASML (+1,33%)
$SLB (+0,57%)
$DT (+1,97%)
$DLO
$CRM (+0,98%)
$GAMB (+1,84%)
$NOVO B (-0,96%)
$NVO (-0,97%)
$NU (+1,36%)
$NU
$MSCI (+2,67%)
$FTNT (+1,33%)
$EFX (+6,19%)
$FI (+2,1%)
$ERJ (+0,2%)
$OSCR
$CDLR (-2,19%)
$CADLR (-0,54%)
$MBLY

One Week Up, One Week Down – The Cycle of These Two Heavyweights

The GLP-1 saga is playing out like a weekly soap opera. Just a few weeks ago, Eli Lilly tanked after the first batch of data on its weight-loss pill, came in weaker than expected compared to Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide. News headlines screamed: “Novo wins this round,” and investors rotated straight into the, at that point almost burnt down, Danish camp.

Fast-forward to yesterday and the tables flipped. Lilly’s latest Phase 3 readout in obese patients with type 2 diabetes hit all the marks – over 10% average weight loss, improved blood sugar, and a safety profile consistent with injectables. A pill, once a day, no needles. Wall Street loved it, the stock surged, and Novo slipped a couple of percent in sympathy. That’s been the rhythm all summer: one week up, one week down, depending on the news cycle.

Step back though, and it’s not really Lilly vs. Novo. It’s Lilly and Novo vs. the rest of the pharma world. Together they’re shaping a $150 billion obesity market that no outsider seems to be able to crack. Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic remain the gold standard, while both are continuing to push hard on injectables and now pills. Each headline just shifts which ticker traders decide to crown “winner of the week,” but long-term both companies are entrenched.

The contrast was brutal for Viking Therapeutics. The “up-and-coming” challenger saw its stock collapse nearly 40% after mixed Phase 2 results on its oral GLP-1/GIP candidate. Too many side-effect concerns, not enough differentiation, and – conveniently – right before Lilly reminded everyone what late-stage data is supposed to look like. Reality check: this is a two-horse race.

Personally, I own both Lilly and Novo. Obesity is a long-term trend, not a fad. Demand is global, the science is strong, and payers will eventually adapt. The week-to-week swings are just noise. Yesterday Lilly had its moment, next week it could be Novo again. Either way, the scoreboard in ten years will show both of them winning, and I am taking the discounts.

$LLY (+0,19%)
$NOVO B (-0,96%)
$NVO (-0,97%)
$VKTX (+0,35%)

1) Executive Summary

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is the largest health insurer and healthcare services provider in the United States, serving ~150 million Americans across insurance, pharmacy benefits, and care delivery. While it is mostly known for being a dominant insurance player, many people forget to mention Optum, a multi-segment growth engine, offering services from pharmacy benefit management over physician networks to healthcare IT. UNH is as diversified as a healthcare operator of that size can be, and in the prime position to capitalize on long-term trends, including rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and chronic diseases, especially in the U.S.

Despite its position, the stock has been under pressure recently, due to a variety of headwinds: unexpected hikes in medical costs, investigation of malpractice by the DOJ, leadership turmoil and the tragic murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO Brian Thompson last December. Share prices have declined sharply to under $250, erasing years of premium valuation and gains.

Nevertheless, notable investor Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.6 billion stake in UNH, which he started building up during Q2 of 2025. This is a reminder of the company’s stability, strategic positioning, and persistent undervaluation, which many retail investors fail to recognize. Warren Buffett likely identified these structural tailwinds, and UnitedHealth is, in fact, exactly the kind of company Berkshire Hathaway screens for.

2) Investment Thesis

UnitedHealth is more than just an insurer. It is a healthcare infrastructure conglomerate. Its unique combination of insurance (UnitedHealthcare) and services (Optum) makes it one of the most diversified companies in the entire healthcare sector. There is very little within this industry that UNH does not cover – and they are highly successful with it. Insurance provides data and forms the core of UNH’s business, while Optum drives cost management, care integration, and creates recurring revenue outside of the typical insurance segment.

The company is the largest player in the health insurance industry, dominating the field and combining its experience across all offerings to create a healthcare behemoth. The breadth gives resilience. UnitedHealth is the 9th largest employer in the U.S. and the biggest insurance company worldwide. It is a member of the Dow Jones Index and, until recently, had a market capitalization of $500 billion. Almost half of the U.S. population uses one of UNH’s services, and investors continue to treat it like a dying business.

The U.S. healthcare system – by far the largest in the world – spends nearly $4.8 trillion annually (~17% of GDP), which is projected to grow faster than inflation in the coming years, mainly driven by aging demographics, increasingly unhealthy lifestyles, and the rising prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and chronic diseases within society. UnitedHealth sits at the epicenter of this spend and therefore operates in an unmatched position to scale and integrate organically.

The market is overly focused on near-term headwinds, overlooking the long-term potential. It is crucial to remember that UNH’s moat is growing, not shrinking. The stock is trading at a Forward P/E of 18, not only below historical averages, but also significantly lower than the shares of inferior competitors. The company is practically indestructible and still showing robust growth year over year.

3) Growth Drivers

UnitedHealth’s growth is driven by a few solid long-term trends, which not only secure the company’s future but could even help reaccelerate expansion over the coming years. If the execution is right, the stock price could soon reach new highs, fueled by the following catalysts:

Medicare Advantage (MA):

• The fastest-growing segment of U.S. insurance, covering over half of Medicare beneficiaries.
• Currently downplayed, due to a short-term increase in utilization, which should disappear over the next quarters.

Optum Health – Physician Integration:

• Optum Health is building the largest U.S. physician organization, with over 90,000 people already employed – and expanding further.
• As for MA, recent senior utilization hurt earnings, but structurally, physician ownership is a defensive and unwavering asset.

Optum Rx – Pharmacy & GLP-1 Growth:

• Pharmacy spend is accelerating, particularly for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. By 2030, projections estimate that almost half of the U.S. population could suffer from obesity, and more than 86% of people could be classified as overweight. Similar to my Novo Nordisk ($NVO) theory a few days ago, this will be one of the most persistent trends in the next few years. There is no sign of slowing down, rather the opposite.
• Optum Rx processes billions of scripts annually, benefiting from volume growth in these segments.

Optum Insight – Healthcare IT:

• Since the major cyberattack in 2024, margins are continuing to normalize.
• UNH has incurred $1–2 billion in direct breach costs; apart from that, damage should be manageable, and security has been improved since then.

Macro Outlook:

• U.S. healthcare spending is projected to exceed $7 trillion by 2031, with consistent outperformance of GDP growth.

Demographic and chronic disease prevalence ensures demand growth, regardless of economic tensions, ensuring UNH’s revenue safety in the future.

4) Competitive Position

UnitedHealth’s moat rests on scale, integration, and data. It is the largest insurer worldwide with more than 400,000 employees. This provides the company with immense pricing power throughout its different business segments. However, UNH also integrates its segments successfully. The company owns care delivery, PBM, and IT, which enables better cost control and stickier contracts with employers and governments.

Something that is often overlooked when assessing the company’s moat is its power to collect data. UnitedHealth processes billions of claims, which gives it a unique and unmatched edge over competitors in predicting demographic and healthcare-related trends.

UNH’s moat is further solidified by enormous barriers to entry. Insurance requires capital intensity, PBMs require scale, and physician ownership requires consolidation. Competitors entering UnitedHealth’s field would be years behind, which is why very few attempt to take market share from UNH.

The business is extremely sticky: large corporations, states, and Medicare rely on stability. Switching providers is often not worth the effort and is operationally disruptive. UNH has long-standing relationships with the government and employers, further bolstering its competitive position.

In conclusion, UnitedHealth has the widest moat in the entire industry, and combines the key strengths of its competitors (CVS in PBM, Humana in senior care, etc.) into one massive conglomerate. UNH is the perfect all-in-one investment if you are seeking to bet on the U.S. healthcare sector.

5) Fundamentals

• Revenue: $423 billion (12% CAGR since 2020)
• Net Income: $22 billion (8% CAGR)
• Free Cash Flow: $25 billion (5% CAGR)
• Operating Margin: 7.3% (slightly declining due to higher costs)
• Return on Invested Capital: 8.8% (also slightly declining)
• Dividend & Capital Returns: Consistent dividend growth and opportunistic repurchases, though buybacks paused during cyber fallout

UnitedHealth’s fundamentals underpin its strong position in the market and efficient investment, though they also highlight recent issues, such as an increase in medical costs and Medicaid utilization. Nevertheless, the numbers remain strong and as soon as short-term headwinds fade, margins are likely to recover along with profitability.

6) Valuation

• Price (Aug 2025): ~$300
• Market Cap: ~$280 billion
• Forward P/E: ~18x
• EV/EBITDA: ~13x
• Dividend Yield: ~2.9%
• Buybacks: Historically aggressive

Compared with peers (CVS ~19x, Humana ~22x), UNH typically trades at a premium. Not anymore, since UNH has become prevalent in negative news articles, the stock has dropped significantly and erased its premium. However, the premium position over competitors has not changed, which creates a compelling opportunity based on historically low valuation metrics. Furthermore, management agrees with that premise and continues heavily buying back shares. If investors refuse to recognize the potential in the company, UNH may eventually own itself entirely.

7) Recent Troubles

It is important to highlight why UNH has lost its premium valuation, but equally discuss the mitigation of these problems:

• The first and key issue for the company is unexpectedly high costs; seniors are going to doctors and outpatient centers more often, utilizing Medicare consistently. This development pushes the medical care ratio (MCR) higher, explaining retreating margins.

• An investigation by the DOJ is running criminal and civil probes into UnitedHealth’s Medicare billing practices, which increased pressure on the stock. However, these investigations usually last for years and often end up nowhere. Therefore the risk can be deemed negligible for the near future.

A leadership crisis at UnitedHealthcare as well as the parent company UnitedHealth Group followed the vicious brutal murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO in December 2024. The insurance arm had to look for new leadership, while increasing security spending to prevent such tragedies in the future. In a less dramatic case, the group CEO Andrew Witty stepped down for personal reasons, clearing the way for the returning CEO Stephen J. Hemsley. The 73-year-old was reappointed amid this company crisis to lead the healthcare giant back to stability.

8) Catalysts & Timeline

Medicaid costs are expected to normalize again, which would mean margin recovery across all metrics and aid the insurance segment of UNH’s business. While margin recovery for Optum Insight could come from post-hack stabilization, which should restore profitability in the next years.

The DOJ concerns are also likely to be priced out of the stock. Many of the largest companies in the US are regularly investigated by the DOJ and these processes tend to stretch over years – with typically limited outcomes. Leadership change could prove positive, since Stephen J. Hemsley has a strong record and knows how to manage this healthcare giant. Additionally, macro trends remain in place, increasing the need for UnitedHealth’s services year over year organically.

9) Conclusion

UnitedHealth sits in the middle of U.S. healthcare spending, with an unmatched ecosystem of services across insurance, pharmacy benefits, care delivery, and healthcare IT. The company is expanding steadily year over year and integrating its business segments further, using data aggregation and pricing power.

2025 has been a stand-out year for the company, where short-term pressure put UNH’s stock price under stress. On the bright side, this provides long-term investors with the perfect opportunity to own one platform covering the entire healthcare sector. Maybe Warren Buffett’s endorsement was the spark needed for people to understand the resilience and unmatched position of UnitedHealth.

The macro math does not lie: healthcare spending will continue to rise. Demographic trends are undeniable. UNH is perfectly positioned to capitalize on trends such as chronic diseases, obesity, diabetes, and longevity, especially considering its sticky business model, which makes it extremely disruptive to switch away from the company.

In short: UnitedHealth is the healthcare monopoly hiding in plain sight – and right now, it is trading at a discount, not seen regularly for a company of that size.

$UNH (+2,52%)
$IYY (+0,42%)
$CVS (+1,12%)
$HUM (+0,07%)
$OSCR
$NOVO B (-0,96%)
$NVO (-0,97%)
$LLY (+0,19%)

Getting started with this stock 🙏🏻🤞💪

Today was a successful day for my portfolio, as some truly enticing opportunities presented themselves. A few of them seemed just too good to pass up, so I took some money off the sidelines and deployed it efficiently.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned my intention to reduce my cash position opportunistically throughout Q3 and Q4, aiming for <10% by year-end. However, with the current volatility and short-term panic dominating investor sentiment, it’s getting increasingly harder to resist collecting some beat-up names. Two that stood out today: Fortinet ($FTNT (+1,33%) ) and Eli Lilly ($LLY (+0,19%) ).

Fortinet – Cybersecurity, But at a Fair Price

Let’s start chronologically. When Fortinet reported earnings yesterday, nothing seemed off:

· Revenue up 14% YoY

· Billings up 15% YoY

· EPS up 25% YoY

All figures were in line with or beating expectations. Regardless of that, the company maintains rock-solid balance sheet with ~$4.5 billion in cash, a strong operating margin of 33% (non-GAAP) and free cash flow margins of 25-30%. In Addition, AAR growth was exceptional with SASE and Security Operations rising 22% and 35% YoY respectively.

Looks good enough, you might think. The market didn’t think so, judging by the 27% slaughter of the company’s share price.

So, what was wrong with the report? Where’s the fly in the ointment? Mostly due to a disappointing firewall refresh cycle.

Management confirmed that 40-50% is already complete, implying reduced product demand. Apart from that, there wasn’t much to criticize except for guidance that was “merely” in line, which triggered analyst downgrades, citing growth concerns.

But is that in any way enough to justify a >25% sell-off? Absolutely not, let’s consider a few long-term catalysts for Fortinet from here:

· SASE Expansion (rapidly growing cloud-based security platform)

· Security Operations Suite (similar growth through AI-driven threat detection)

· Global Presence (competitive edge in EMs as the No. 1 player, biggest revenue stream comes from EMEA, US just second)

· AI Integration (Fortiguard and FortiAI enhance threat response)

All of that sounds great, but as usual for cybersecurity companies, it’s fair to assume a massive price tag attached to the stock. Though, that’s not necessarily the case. Fortinet currently trades around a 30 Forward P/E ratio, significantly below its historic average, suggesting an attractive entry level.

Considering the industry Fortinet operates in and how cybersecurity becomes increasingly more important, this is the perfect opportunity to get a piece of a stellar company in one of the fastest growing sectors worldwide.

Eli Lilly – Let’s Profit off the Fat

The second buy of the day benefits from the most sustainable macro trend of all – human indulgence. In simpler terms: people overeating, getting fat, developing diseases, needing treatment.

To clarify, I already had a small position in Lilly, which I added alongside Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-0,96%) /$NVO (-0,97%) ) last week. My logic is simple: Obesity and diabetes are long-term megatrends, and only two companies dominate the space. So, why would you try to be smarter than the market and bet on just one, if you can own both?

Honestly, I have no idea who is going to emerge as the winner, but I also don’t think that we will necessarily see only one. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have their advantages. Novo is an unloved stock, deeply undervalued with heavy turnaround potential, while Lilly is the faster growing, innovative frontrunner. Initially, the ratio between my Novo and my Lilly holding was 2:1, but after Lilly’s stock sold off sharply today, despite another example of exceptional earnings I just couldn’t resist.

What triggered the decline? Results from Lilly’s oral semaglutide clinical trial came out today and to put it in simple terms: Novo’s rival drug utterly obliterated Lilly’s pill in weight-loss. But was that a surprise? Not really. Novo had a head start, while Lilly is catching up. However, I have no doubt that Lilly will eventually develop a similarly effective alternative. Though, I wouldn’t mind a sharp recovery of my Novo shares based on such a triviality.

Conclusion

Let’s wrap it up. Markets are hypersensitive at the moment. Even a minor imperfection in an earnings report can spark a massive selloff. Expectations are brutal, and it’s not unusual to see $100+ billion companies trading like meme stocks.

In conclusion, both Eli Lilly and Fortinet are phenomenal companies, with robust balance sheets, strong growth prospects and long-term catalysts, trading at discounted prices.

As Warren Buffett said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.

Let’s do that and enjoy the returns.

$LLY (+0,19%)
$NOVO B (-0,96%)
$NVO (-0,97%)

Das pillenbasierte Abnehmmittel von $LLY (+0,19%) zeigt deutlich schlechtere Ergebnisse als das pillenbasierte Abnehmmittel von $NOVO B (-0,96%) (beide in Studien) – siehe Vergleich unten:

Novo führt als erste Abnehmpille:

Eli Lilly's Results Fell Slightly Below Expectations

While orforglipron helped patients lose around 12% of their body weight, analysts were expecting closer to 15%. That means:

The pill is promising, but not clearly superior to Novo’s Wegovy, which offers comparable or better results.

This could ease investor concerns that Eli Lilly would quickly dominate or disrupt the market.

2. Side Effects & Discontinuation Rates Raised Concerns

The discontinuation rate on the highest dose of orforglipron was 10.3%, and overall dropout was close to 25%, which is higher than for injectable GLP-1s like Wegovy (around 7%).

This makes Novo’s products look more tolerable and clinically more stable in comparison.

3. Time Advantage for Novo Nordisk

Eli Lilly doesn’t plan to launch the pill until 2026, so there is no immediate competitive threat to Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk already has market dominance with Wegovy and Rybelsus (an oral GLP-1 for diabetes), giving it a strong head start.

4. Market Expansion Narrative

Investors often interpret positive data from a rival as a sign that the entire GLP-1 category is strong and expanding.

If Lilly’s pill works and gets approved, it validates the GLP-1 space further.

This strengthens the long-term outlook for Novo Nordisk as a major player in that market.

5. Speculation About Novo’s Own Oral GLP-1 Development

Investors may believe Novo has room to improve or accelerate its own oral GLP-1 pipeline.

The race for oral treatments is far from over, and Novo is still a top contender with deep experience in the GLP-1 space.

Summary

Novo Nordisk stock is likely up because:

Eli Lilly’s results were strong but not better than expected.

There were tolerability concerns with Lilly’s pill.

Novo still has the lead in market and product availability.

The data boosts confidence in the entire GLP-1 market.