Messaggi
104Would you currently rather buy additional positions in your portfolio or add new shares to your portfolio?
I am currently short these positions:
$ASML (-0,08%) (-17%) (actually position full)
$NVDA (+4,72%) (-20%) (position actually full)
$GOOGL (-1,98%) (-15%)
$VST (+1,58%) (-20%)
$HIMS (-0,04%) (-22%)
$AMZN (+0,25%) (-2%)
that I would like to get new
Hermes $RMS (-0,06%) (very expensive 🤑 )
Ferrari $RACE (+1,1%)
Lululemon $LULU (-0,38%)
Just do it $NKE (-0,18%) (supposedly cheap at the moment, please do not reach into the falling knife)
Booking $BKNG (+0,21%)
Marriott $MAR (+0,24%)
Ulta Beaty $ULTA (-0,21%) and/or L'Oreal $OR (-1,5%) (much more expensive)
Mercadolibre $MELI (+1,25%)
Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (+0,7%)
Chipotle $CMG (+5,46%)
Fast Retailing $9983 (-0,45%)
(doesn't fit with the others on the list but I could imagine it as a speculative stock)
"Everything" very expensive, luxury.
I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?
I think the share will deliver 20-40% pa. from this level.
These assumptions are based on past data and analyst estimates for the future in combination with the current valuation ratios.
I would like to make these purchases:
$SPOT (+2,68%) , $META (+0,53%) , $GOOGL (-1,98%) ,$APH (+0,06%) ,$CSPX (+0,72%) , $MC (+0,33%)
$MELI (+1,25%) but I would still wait for the US. Stock market or wait for the reaction of other countries
What do you want to get in any case?
How long have you held the share?
How do you see the future (long-term, medium-term, short-term)?
What was your buy-in?
At what price would you like to buy in / buy more?
I am currently still collecting input on Mercadolibre :)
LG and have a nice evening Hasis
After 2 weeks I finally see some green again, let's see if this stays this way - probably not, but that's fine too!
Happy I bought the dip!
$MELI (+1,25%) is carrying a ton
2025 - A stock market year that has so far been more reminiscent of rough seas. It goes uphill and the next moment it goes abruptly downhill again.
The January began with a lot of Trump euphoria on the markets, before this was halted by DeepSeek in the second half of January.
The February recovered relatively quickly from this shock before falling again in the second half of the month. The Trump euphoria has turned into a Trump shock for the time being.
Nevertheless, I will continue to hold a 75-80% USA quota with a high proportion of tea.
I can get over the fact that after 2 years of outperformance against my benchmarks, there may be an underperformance this year.
Monthly view:
In total, February was -3,2%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 10.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was down -2.5% and the S&P500 -1.4%.
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers nevertheless reveals a surprising picture for the top performer in February.
But first a look at the losersThe biggest loser by far is Alphabet $GOOG (-1,83%) With losses of almost €3,000, the share price took a heavy hit in February. This is followed by a total of almost €5,000 in price losses Bitcoin
$BTC (+0,58%) & Ethereum
$ETH (+0,97%) . 4th & 5th place goes to Salesforce
$CRM (+1,45%) and TSMC $TSM (+0,97%) two more tech stocks
On the winning side are actually at the top, much to my own surprise NVIDIA
$NVDA (+4,72%) with a price gain of almost €1,000. And this despite the fact that NVIDIA lost over 10% on the penultimate trading day in February. Nevertheless, the recovery after the DeepSeek shock in February was greater than expected.
The top 5 includes Amgen
$AMGN (+0,76%) and Johnson & Johnson
$JNJ (-0,01%) two stocks from the healthcare sector, a rather defensive sector. These are joined by MercadoLibre $MELI (+1,25%) and Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+1,93%) but also two tech stocks.
The performance-neutral movements were positive again in February at € 900, after January was clearly negative due to a property purchase.
current year:
In the YTD my portfolio is still just in the plus with +0,6%. However, the MSCI World is up +1.9% and I am currently underperforming my benchmark.
In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~288.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€3,000 in the current year 2025. ~1.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~500€ from dividends / interest and ~1.500€ from additional investments.
Dividend:
Buys & sells:
YouTube:
I uploaded a few new videos to YouTube in February and I'm starting to feel less stupid talking into a microphone.
I've also uploaded my portfolio update there as a video if anyone would like to see some more information about the portfolio performance in February:
Here I act according to the motto: Let's see what happens - What will happen!
Goal 2025
Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.
A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added
A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year and the markets are very volatile.
The current portfolio balance is ~€290,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. This would bring me to just over €300,000. I originally assumed a market return of 7% for this year. However, after the first two months it is difficult for me to estimate how this year will go.
That's why I'm being honest: A target doesn't make sense for me this year.
The goal is to build a successful house and for the portfolio we'll just see what happens.
MercadoLibre ($MELI (+1,25%) ) is the undisputed market leader for e-commerce and FinTech in Latin America. Often referred to as the "Amazon of South America", the company dominates with its marketplace, digital payment services and its own logistics infrastructure. But after years of growth and a correction, the question arises: Can MercadoLibre take off again in 2025?
🚀 The MercadoLibre business model
✅ MercadoLibre (e-commerce): The largest online marketplace in Latin America with strong growth. In 2024, sales increased by 20%which shows the continuing demand.
✅ Mercado Pago (FinTech): One of the leading digital payment platforms in the region, used both online and in brick-and-mortar retail.
✅ Mercado Envios (logistics): Own logistics network for faster and more efficient delivery - a major advantage over Amazon.
✅ Mercado Credito (Lending): Enables buyers and sellers to access credit and expands the business model in the direction of FinTech.
Thanks to this broad diversification MercadoLibre is not only an e-commerce company, but also a FinTech and logistics player with strong growth potential.
🏆 Competition - Who can be a threat to MercadoLibre?
🔸 Amazon $AMZN (+0,25%)
: Global giant, but with lower market penetration in Latin America.
🔸 Sea Limited (Shopee) $SE: (+3,68%) An emerging threat in e-commerce, especially in Brazil.
🔸 Nubank & StoneCo $NU (+2,32%)
: Strong FinTech competitors entering the payments market.
🔸 Alibaba (AliExpress) $9988 (+1,47%)
: Focuses on low-cost imported products - but without its own logistics in the region.
Despite tough competition, MercadoLibre remains the market leader - mainly due to its logistics network, which Amazon and Shopee do not yet offer at this level in Latin America.
📈 Growth potential: why MercadoLibre could take off in 2025
✅ E-commerce boom: Online retail in Latin America continues to grow. Annual growth of 15% is expected until 2026 (Statista).
✅ Digitalization:
In 2024, internet usage in Latin America increased by 8%which creates the basis for further growth in online retail and digital financial services.
✅ Logistics advantage: MercadoLibre has acquired Mercado Envios an infrastructure that dominates the market.
✅ FinTech growth: With Mercado Pago and Mercado Credito the company is developing into a kind of "PayPal $PYPL (+1,18%)
& Klarna of Latin America".
✅ Latin America as a growth market: While markets such as the USA and Europe are more mature, Latin America still offers still offers enormous potential for increasing online purchases.
⚠️ Risks: What are the challenges?
⚠️ Currency risks: The High inflation and currency fluctuations in countries such as Brazil or Argentina could depress profits.
⚠️ Fierce competition: Shopee in Brazil in particular is putting MercadoLibre under pressure.
⚠️ Regulations: Political uncertainties and possible new regulations for digital financial services could slow down growth.
⚠️ Rising financing costs:
Mercado Credito is growing, but higher interest rates could weigh on the lending business.
📊 Conclusion: turnaround candidate for 2025?
MercadoLibre remains the dominant player in Latin America and is benefiting from growing digitalization and rising e-commerce sales. Despite currency risks and competition the company has strong growth driversthat make it interesting in the long term.
🔥 Turnaround candidate or long-term winner? What do you think - will MercadoLibre remain number 1 or will the competition catch up?
Personally, I am currently very fond of Latin American companies. I see good growth and rising share prices, which is currently lacking a little in US equities. That's why I've shared some insights from MercaoLibre ($MELI (+1,25%) ) here:
MercadoLibre presented impressive results in its Q4 2024 analyst conference, further cementing the company's position as a leading e-commerce and FinTech player in Latin America. CFO Martin de Los Santos highlighted that the company gained market share in key markets such as Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, while key financial metrics outperformed industry growth. Most notably, MercadoLibre surpassed the 100 million unique shoppers mark on the marketplace and has 60 million monthly active users on the FinTech platform.
A key growth driver was the continuous improvement of logistics. MercadoLibre invested heavily in fulfillment centers, optimized shipping options and achieved record levels of supply chain productivity. These measures led to more and more customers using the platform for their daily shopping. Expansion in the financial sector also remained a focus: 5.9 million new credit cards were issued in 2024, more than doubling the credit card portfolio.
In the fashion segment, standardized size filters were introduced to improve product search, while returns were facilitated by the exchange service at MELI points. In the food segment, "Full Super" was launched - a feature that enables optimized navigation in the food categories. Sellers benefit from new tools such as "My Page", with which they can individualize their product presentations and use vouchers and advertisements in a targeted manner. The introduction of dynamic pricing helps them to automatically adapt their offers to market developments.
MercadoLibre was particularly successful in expanding the credit card business. The portfolio grew sustainably thanks to an improved user selection and higher credit limits. It was also made easier for customers to collect pre-approved cards directly when making a purchase on the platform.
A key topic of the Q&A session was the development of the credit portfolio, particularly in Brazil, where rising interest rates represent a potential risk. However, MercadoLibre does not see any immediate deterioration in portfolio quality here. To counteract possible risks, the company has reduced the granting of microloans and adjusted the repayment periods for new loans. Despite this cautious strategy, the scope for increasing credit penetration in e-commerce remains high, and the loan book grew by 74% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
The focus was also on business in Argentina. Despite macroeconomic challenges, MercadoLibre recorded a strong recovery there, with growth in items sold of 18 % in the fourth quarter (compared to 10 % in the previous quarter). The loan book quadrupled in Argentina - a sign of the growing acceptance of FinTech offerings. In Brazil, on the other hand, the expansion of the credit card led to margin compression, but this is seen as a strategic investment in long-term growth.
The analysts were interested in the latest investments in new fulfillment centers. MercadoLibre opened fewer new warehouses in 2024 than in previous years, but the additional capacity was used specifically for the peak season. The company continues to see great potential in the shift of consumption from offline to online channels in Latin America and plans to further expand its logistics infrastructure accordingly.
Another key topic was the development of items with a lower ASP (Average Selling Price). Growth in this segment was above the industry average in Brazil, Mexico and other Latin American markets. This shows that more and more customers are relying on MercadoLibre to purchase everyday products.
Another important point was the monetization of the platform through advertising. MercadoLibre sees great potential for long-term growth here. Revenue from advertising as a share of GMV has improved, but the company continues to work on expanding its relationships with brands and agencies, further developing its product offering and optimizing technical solutions for retailers.
The analysts were particularly interested in the growth of the FinTech business in Argentina. The loan portfolio there grew almost fourfold in 2024 - a clear sign of the high demand for financial services. As access to credit for private customers in Argentina is still low compared to other Latin American countries, MercadoLibre sees enormous potential here. The company emphasized that no banking license is required for the further expansion of the loan book, which enables faster scaling.
MercadoLibre has proven once again in 2024 that it is a dominant player in both the e-commerce and FinTech sectors in Latin America. The company is focusing on long-term strategic investments in logistics, lending and advertising monetization to further expand its market position.
With a combination of data-driven credit management, a further optimized logistics infrastructure and a growing user base, MercadoLibre remains one of the most exciting growth stories in Latin America - both in the e-commerce and FinTech sectors!
I hope you enjoyed the summary!
