Existing position increased after analysts upgraded Estée Lauder.

$ULTA (-1,34%)

• Revenue: USD 2.85 billion (estimated USD 2.79 billion) ✅ +4.5% year-on-year
• Earnings per share: USD 6.70 (estimated USD 5.75) ✅
• Comparable sales: +2.9 % (compared to +1.6 % year-on-year)
• Gross margin: 39.1 % (compared to 39.2 % in the previous year)
• Inventory: USD 2.1 billion (+11.3% year-on-year)

Guidelines for the 2025 financial year:

• Sales: USD 11.5-11.7 bn (previously: USD 11.5-11.6 bn | estimate USD 11.58 bn)
• Earnings per share: USD 22.65-23.20 (previously: USD 22.50-22.90 | estimate USD 24.07)
• Comparable sales: 0 % to +1.5 % (previously: 0 % to +1 %)
• Operating margin: 11.7-11.8% (no change)
• Share buybacks: ~USD 900m (no change)
• New stores: ~60 | Conversions/relocations: 40-45
• Capital expenditure: USD 425-500m
• Tax rate: ~24.5
• Depreciation/amortization: USD 290-300m

Other key figures for the first quarter:

• Operating profit margin: 14.1 % (compared to 14.7 % in the previous year)
• Net income: USD 305.1 million (compared to USD 313.1 million in the previous year)
• Selling and administrative expenses: USD 710.6 million (increase of 6.7% compared to the previous year)
• Store space: 6 new stores opened; now 1,451 in total
• Share buybacks: USD 358.7 million repurchased in the 1st quarter
• Cash and cash equivalents: USD 454.6 million

Management:

• CEO: "The start to the 2025 financial year is encouraging thanks to the success of our Ulta Beauty Unleashed program. However, the outlook reflects the uncertainty regarding consumer demand. We remain focused and flexible."

$ELF (+1,08%)
$EL (+1,49%)
$OR (+0,79%)

That doesn't look very optimistic. 🤔

$NVDA (+1,3%)
$BABA (-0,15%)
$PDD (-0,99%)
$JD (-0,53%)
$EL (+1,49%)
$TCOM (-0,9%)
$BIDU (-0,95%)

Source: www.michael-burry.com

$EL (+1,49%)

Hello everyone, I have 35 Estee Lauders$EL (+1,49%) in the portfolio and recently bought more. Am now 20% in the red? Because of the high level of debt, I am considering selling and switching to L'Oreal $OR (+0,79%) and switch to L'Oreal. From the chart, Estee looks like it has greater potential, but L'Oreal is much less indebted and has cash if things get rough over the next few months/years. What do you think?

Last year was a complete success for many investors - but not for everyone. While the S&P 500 rose by around 25 %, there were also shares that took a nosedive. 🤔

The biggest losers included companies such as Celanese Corp. $CE, which fell by 19.25 %, and Estée Lauder ($EL (+1,49%)which lost 1.45 %. Intel $INTC and Moderna $MRNA were also under pressure.

But what does that mean? Are yesterday's flops the potential stars of tomorrow? Some analysts see recovery potential, while others point to the ongoing challenges.

What do you think? Is it worth buying into these supposed bargains now, or is staying away the better strategy? Let's discuss it! 📈💬

Insider purchases at a overview:

• MSCI $MSCI (+1,74%) - 15% drawdown and 11% from 52-week high
• Adobe $ADBE (+0,08%) - 33% drawdown and 26% from 52-week high
• Nike $NKE (+17,01%) - 60% drawdown and 34% from 52-week high
• Estée Lauder $EL (+1,49%) - 81% drawdown and 56% from 52-week high

Do you take action or do insider purchases play no role in your investment decisions?

Concrete transactions in detail (in green):

1) MSCI $MSCI (+1,74%)

2) Adobe $ADBE (+0,08%)

3) Nike $NKE (+17,01%)

4) Estée Lauder $EL (+1,49%)

$ELF (+1,08%)

Short interest still at 12%

$ULTA (-1,34%)
$OR (+0,79%)
$EL (+1,49%)
$MC (+1,61%)

$ELF (+1,08%)

• EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76) ❌
• Net Sales: $355.3M (Est. $329.67M) ✅ ; UP +31% YoY

Updated FY25 Guidance (Revised Downward):

• Net Sales: $1.30B-$1.31B (Prev. $1.315B-$1.335B) ❌
• Adjusted EBITDA: $289M-$293M (Prev. $304M-$308M) ❌
• Adjusted Net Income: $193M-$196M (Prev. $205M-$208M) ❌
• Adjusted EPS: $3.27-$3.32 (Prev. $3.47-$3.53) ❌
• Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 19-20% (No Change) ❌

Other Key Metrics:

• Gross Margin: 71% (Est. 71.15%) ; UP +40 bps YoY
• SG&A Expenses: $218.2M (Est. $175.43M) ; UP +36.3% YoY
• Adjusted SG&A: $192.9M (54% of net sales)
• Net Income: $17.3M (Est. $44M)
• Adjusted Net Income: $43M
• Adjusted EPS: $0.74
• Adjusted EBITDA: $68.7M (Est. $72.57M) ; UP +16% YoY

Comment from the CEO and CFO:

• CEO Tarang Amin: "We continue to gain market share, with net revenue growth of 31% and market share gains of 220 basis points in the US. We see significant new territory opportunities in digital, color cosmetics, skincare and international markets."

• CFO Mandy Fields: "Given the weaker than expected trends in January, we are taking a cautious approach and lowering our outlook for the 2025 financial year."

$OR (+0,79%)
$COTI (-1,07%)
$EL (+1,49%)
$MC (+1,61%)
#earnings
#quartalszahlen