🔷 1. Overview 🌍
First Solar, Inc. ($FSLR) is a solar technology company that provides photovoltaic (PV) energy solutions globally, using cadmium telluride thin-film modules as a lower-carbon alternative to traditional silicon. It also focuses on project development, operations, and selling PV solar systems. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, the company rebranded from First Solar Holdings, Inc. in 2006.
🔷 2. Key Metrics (26/02/25, NYSE) 📊
• Stock Price: $156.84 – ⬇️ 15.89% YTD
• Market Cap: $16.79 billion 💵
• P/E Ratio: 13.04 📉 (incredible value compared to competitors such as $MCHP (~105) or $SWKS (~20))
• Revenue: $4.206 billion 💰
• EBITDA: $1.818 billion 🏦
• EPS: $12.02 💵
• FCF: -$308.1 million 💸
• Debt/EBITDA: No debt ✅
📈 Projected annual average growth rates (CAGR) from 2024 to 2027:
• Revenue Growth: ~19% to $7.1 billion 🚀
• EBITDA Growth: ~32% to $4.1 billion 📈
• EPS Growth: ~38% to $31.5 💵
• FCF Growth: ~86% to $2.35 billion (growth rate starting 2025, because no FCF in 2024) 💰
• Debt Reduction: No debt ✅
🔷 3. Catalysts and Risks ⚖️
🟢 Catalysts:
• Incredible Valuation: $FSLR convinces with extremely strong fundamentals; no debt, high revenue growth, and massive gains in other key metrics such as earnings per share or free cash flow. 📊 These numbers don’t justify the current price and P/E ratio of around 13, considering their fundamentals and market position. I think the stock has reached the bottom of the downturn, especially after seeing it rise even with a slight miss on earnings estimates on Tuesday.
• Long-term Vision: 🌱 Even though I expect a shift under the Trump administration away from benefits for renewable energy makers toward traditional energy providers like $XOM, the long-term prospects are still intact. Sooner or later, renewable energy will become the cheapest form of energy, making non-renewable sources less viable.
• Ahead of Competition: $FSLR manufactures domestically 🇺🇸, meaning it wouldn’t be primarily impacted by potential future tariffs on China or the EU while maintaining higher and more stable growth rates than its peers.
🔴 Risks:
• Sentiment Shift: I don’t think there is any major risk for the future of $FSLR. The only possibility, though highly unlikely, is that solar technology is set back for some reason, reducing profitability or growth prospects. ⚠️
• Non-cash Earnings: A portion of $FSLR’s earnings comes from non-cash income, but this should become less of an issue as the company continues to grow at an immense rate. 📉 While I consider it a minor issue, it’s still something to keep in mind.
🔷 4. My Portfolio 📈💼
🟢 I started buying $FSLR at the end of January because it’s a company with great numbers and a bright future. Even though I think non-renewable energy stocks in the U.S., especially oil service providers, will perform better in the next four years, the numbers were too good to pass up. That’s why I added to my position just a few days ago.
🔷 5. Conclusion 💡
First Solar is a fast-growing company in a strong industry with a long-term perspective. 🌞 The fundamentals are highly convincing, and the outlook is one that can’t even be held back by Trump. I am confident that the future for this industry is bright, and $FSLR is the shining star ✨ of the sector. The valuation is unbelievably attractive and promises high returns in the coming years, potentially outperforming even my oilfield services bets in the long run.
