Messaggi
29Thanks to a clear overweight $IREN (+3,1%) August was also very satisfactory. $KSPI (+0,28%) Sold at exactly the right time and got back in today. First tranche today $FSLR (-0,7%) . Very good position to get another boot in the door in the Renew. E. to get a boot in the door.
In addition, the 100k was cracked in August, which was my target for 2025. It won't always be like this, so I'm more than satisfied and grateful!
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/0IVYpwsaKFs?si=LkXQjD8KIViA2p0p
Monday:
The subsidy rules for renewables in the USA are less strict than assumed. Various companies such as $VWS (-3,39%) Vestas or $FSLR (-0,7%) First Solar benefit from this and can make significant gains. Accordingly, many projects will still receive tax breaks if they are started before July 4, 2026. This could lead to many projects being started sooner than originally planned.
Wednesday:
Good news with a view to future inflation. Producer prices fell further in July, by 1.5% year-on-year. Economists had. only expected 1.3 %. Lower energy costs are primarily responsible for this.
Donald Trump is benefiting massively from cryptocurrency profits. In our view, the US president is exposed to an enormous conflict of interest here. Through his investments, he is profiting from his own laws. We are not talking about a few thousand euros here, but several hundred million, if not billions, of USD.
Thursday:
Harvard economist and professor Kenneth Rogoff also indirectly criticized this massive conflict of interest of the "regulatory authorities" in the US. Rogoff became famous in 2018 for his forecast in which he claimed that the $BTC (+0,03%) BTC would be worth USD 100 in a decade and not USD 100,000. Today, he sees the cause of his misjudgement primarily in the overestimation of the US regulatory authorities and the rise of BTC, driven above all by its use in the shadow economy.
Meanwhile, there is good data from the Purchasing Managers' Index for the EUR area. This rose to 51.1 points, whereas economists had expected a decline. The rise in industry in particular was a positive surprise. The index for service providers fell slightly to 50.7 points. Values above 50 signal growth.
Friday:
It almost seems as if the markets have been waiting for nothing else. Jerome Powell holds out the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed in his speech in Jackson Hole and the markets rally towards the weekend. The markets are 91% expecting a rate cut on September 17.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Monday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate Index (DE)
Thursday: 13:00 GDP figures (USA)
Friday: 14:00 Inflation data (DE)
Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments
$TSLA (+7,29%)
$FSLR (-0,7%)
$PLUG (+1,55%)
The new law brings massive cuts to green energy and electromobility - here are the most important points:
🔋 Electric cars (EVs)
- $7,500 tax credit for new EVs expires on 30.09.2025 expires
- $4,000 bonus for used EVs also ends on 30.09.2025
- No EV annual fee of $250 included
- ZEV credits (e.g. for Tesla) lose massive importance due to elimination of penalties & California exemptions
🏠 Energy at home
- 30 % solar tax bonus for PV systems ends on 31.12.2025
- Geothermal tax benefits also end on 31.12.2025
- Energy efficiency bonus for renovations expires on 31.12.2025
- New construction bonus for efficiency houses ends on 30.06.2026
- Charging infrastructure funding ends on 30.06.2026
🏭 Production & battery promotion
- Battery manufacturing credit (45X) remains in place, but with increasing US share targets (60% from 2026, up to 85% in 2030)
- Wind power component bonus ends after 2027China suppliers disqualify
- Clean Energy Credits (wind/solar/nuclear) expire after 2027 (except if construction starts by 2026)
🚗 Credit and interest rate advantages for US vehicles (2025-2028)
- Up to $10,000 interest deduction p. a. on car loans for US-made vehicles
- Applies only to final assembly in the US & income < $100k/$200k
🧪 Clean Hydrogen
- Tax bonus only for start of construction until the end of 2027
---
📉 ConclusionThe law massively weakens central subsidies for EVs, solar, wind & green technologies - major impact on Tesla, CleanTech & Co.
⚠Only for those interested in trading - otherwise keep scrolling 😅
@MCKrummel-Divi-Holding Since I'm sitting at the computer after your comment, here are a few examples -> this is what the screener "spit out"
@Epi the recently discussed setup, I always look at the same pattern. Well secured on the downside
@Dividenden_Monteur something for you?😎
PS: I have added the link to the chart pictures everywhere, so you can still follow the chart live until the close of trading if you are interested 👈
$MRNA (-7,24%)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzNaFp6T/
$HOOD (-1,9%) wait here how it develops on the VWAP https://www.tradingview.com/x/l4g6iRhL/
$VRNT (-0,29%)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/usbMLEAZ/
$NXT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hzo2u5SA/
$FSLR (-0,7%)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JWZVSjVl/
$W (-2,21%)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rCO7KhVs/
@Multibagger my tubular cracker $STZ (-2,34%) maybe something will happen, from the -8% we are already at only -3% - I'll give this swing trade a little more time 🤕
+ 3
Today, Jerome Powell is giving a speech, and many people are wondering: will the U.S. central bank cut interest rates? Right now, most experts think it won’t happen—at least not yet. Inflation is still a concern, and Powell has said he wants to be careful before making any big decisions. The chance of a rate cut today is low—around 20% or less.
At the same time, there's a big fight going on between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Trump is angry because Musk doesn’t support his new law, the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB). Now Trump is saying negative things about Musk and hinting he might take away government help from Musk’s companies. This fight is making investors nervous and causing Tesla’s stock to drop. $TSLA (+7,29%)
About that bill: it’s very expensive. Experts say it could add over $3 trillion to the U.S. national debt in the next 10 years. It gives more money to the military and cuts taxes but also removes funds for healthcare $PFE (-3,59%) and clean energy $FSLR (-0,7%) . Some people say it could hurt the economy in the long run.
Lastly, let’s look at the 10-year bond—an important signal for the economy. Right now, the yield is about 4.19%, which is lower than it was a few weeks ago. When bond yields fall, it often means investors expect the economy to slow down and that interest rates might be cut soon.
In short: Powell is being cautious, Trump and Musk are arguing, and the bond market is flashing warning signs. Together, these things could shape what’s coming next for the U.S. economy. $SPPX (-0,47%)
$SGLD (+0,18%)
Subscribe to the podcast to help Apple break a new all-time high.
00:00:00 Market environment
00:07:00 Eli Lilly
00:24:00 First Solar
00:40:40 Spotify
00:59:50 Microsoft, Windows 10 & 11
01:11:20 Apple
01:41:40 Strategy, Bitcoin, Cantor Equity Partner A-share A40D87
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6z8c8F2IvzrYq51EUrVHqg?si=8N2VftoMQjOLaro_9t9kVQ
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vANGx5Y_LyM
Apple Podcast
$$AAPL (+1,9%)
$MSFT (+1,74%)
$SPOT (+1,27%)
$GOOG (+0%)
$GOOGL (+0,02%)
$LLY (-0,45%)$CEP
$BTC (+0,03%)
$MSTR (+1,49%)
$FSLR (-0,7%)
- Revenue: $0.8B, -36% YoY
- Net income: $209.5M, -11% YoY
- Net bookings: 0.7GW, +0.1GW YoY
CEO Mark Widmar: "Despite new tariff challenges, long-term U.S. solar demand remains strong."
🌱Revenue & Growth
- Net sales: $0.8B, -36% YoY
- Volume sold: Not specified for Q1, -10% YoY expected for FY2025
- Average selling price: 30.5 cents/watt, +5% YoY
- Sales backlog: 66.3GW, +10% YoY
💰Profits & Health
- Gross profit: Not specified, -40% YoY expected for FY2025
- Net income per diluted share: $1.95, -11% YoY
- Gross cash balance: $0.9B, -47% YoY
- Net cash balance: $0.4B, -71% YoY
- Operating income: Not specified, -25% YoY expected for FY2025
📌Business Highlights
- Secured 0.6GW bookings since Q4 2024
- Invested in new manufacturing facility
- Increased inventories for H2 2025 commitments
- Benefiting from Section 45X tax credits
- Maintained vertically integrated U.S. production
🔮Future Outlook
- Net sales guidance: $4.5B-$5.5B, -13% from prior
- Volume sold guidance: 15.5GW-19.3GW, -10% from prior
- Earnings per diluted share: $12.50-$17.50, -18% from prior
- Capital expenditures: $1.0B-$1.5B, -14% from prior
- Section 45X tax credits: $1.65B-$1.7B, +3% from prior
Hey guys !
It’s been a choppy ride in the US markets lately — lots of red, lots of noise. But let’s be real: these are the moments where long-term portfolios are built.
Corrections like this tend to reveal some solid opportunities. We’re not talking about hype — we’re talking about fundamentally strong businesses trading below their fair value.
Here are a few names that caught our eye this week:
We’re not saying “back up the truck” — but these names are definitely on my radar.
Your turn — what’s on your watchlist right now?
Let’s swap notes. Any other discounted gems we should be looking at?
🔹 EPS: $3.65 (Est. $4.83) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $1.5B (Est. $1.49B) 🟢
🔹 Net Cash Balance: $1.2B
FY25 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $5.3B-$5.8B (Est. $5.52B) 🟡
🔹 EPS: $17.00-$20.00 (Est. $20.17) 🔴
🔹 Volume Sold: 18GW-20GW
Other Q4'24 Metrics:
🔹 Annual Revenue: $4.2B; UP +27.3% YoY
🔹 Net Bookings: 4.4GW; Avg. Selling Price: $0.305/watt
🔹 Annual EPS: $12.02
Strategic/Shareholder Updates:
🔸 Commissioned Alabama facility; progressed Louisiana facility construction
🔸 Opened new R&D center in Ohio
Management Commentary:
🔸 "Mark Widmar (CEO): In 2024, we built foundations for long-term growth, expanding capacity and innovation while shipping a historic volume of modules."
FIRST SOLAR EMERGES AS KEY WINNER FROM DOC ANTIDUMPING RULING $FSLR (-0,7%)
MARKET RESPONSE
- $FSLR shares gained up to 6.5% Monday, following 3.5% increase on Friday
- Positive market reaction follows Department of Commerce's preliminary determination on antidumping duties (Nov 29)
ANALYST INSIGHTS
Piper Sandler (Kashy Harrison)
- Rating: Overweight
- Price Target: Raised to $250 from $210
- Key Points:
* DoC rates exceeded expectations
* Panel pricing likely to increase significantly post-duties
* Potential for utility-scale project delays
* Names $FSLR as sole beneficiary under coverage
Jefferies (Julien Dumoulin-Smith)
- Rating: Buy
- Analysis:
* Positive outlook for US domestic manufacturers ($FSLR) and Malaysia-based Longi
* Vietnam producers ($JKS (+4,53%), $002459) face higher-than-expected antidumping rates
* Thailand rates significantly above expectations, affecting $CSIQ (-0,65%) and Trina
* Market reactions deemed appropriate for $FSLR (up) and $JKS/$CSIQ (down)
Truist (Jordan Levy)
- Rating: Buy
- Key Observations:
* Clear positive for $FSLR given domestic US supply chain
* Company secured on near-term price/volume
* Potential catalyst for expanded domestic manufacturing
* Positive implications for related companies: $SHLS, $ARRY (-3,11%), $NXT (all rated Buy)
UPCOMING CATALYST
- CPIA Annual PV Conference (Dec 4-6)
* Critical event for sector near-term direction
* Expected to reveal supply-side dynamics
* Recommended close monitoring by investors
INDUSTRY IMPLICATIONS
- Strengthens case for US manufacturing expansion
- Module/cell pricing expected to adjust to reflect tariff impact
- Reduced uncertainty may boost booking momentum
- Final determinations pending for next year
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