Enphase Energy

The loss at $ENPH (+6,64%) hurts, but better an end with horror than horror without end!

The solar industry will have a tough time for a while yet, especially with the new US energy policy. I have therefore now reduced my positions in $AMZN (+0,26%) and $ABBV (+1,12%) have been expanded.

23.10.2024

Arm revokes Qualcomm's architecture license + Exciting figures today + McDonald's falls after E. coli cases in the USA + Solar shares in free fall: Enphase Energy disappoints + Deutsche Bank's profits jump thanks to Postbank settlement

The legal dispute that has been simmering for two years between Arm $ARM (-2,66%) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+2,48%) has been escalated to a new level with the recent withdrawal of the architecture license by Arm. In essence, it is about the takeover of Nuvia and the implementation at Qualcomm derived from its CPU design as the Snapdragon X Elite.

https://www.computerbase.de/news/wirtschaft/rechtsstreit-nach-nuvia-uebernahme-arm-entzieht-qualcomm-die-architekturlizenz.90052/

The share price of McDonald's $MCD (-0,31%) plummeted after the chain's restaurants in several US states were linked to an outbreak of E. coli bacteria. According to the CDC, one elderly person died and ten were hospitalized. A total of 49 cases have been reported in ten states, most of them in Colorado and Nebraska. The share price of the world's largest fast food chain fell by almost ten percent at times in early after-hours trading in the US on Tuesday. However, the stock was recently able to recover somewhat from this heavy loss and ended after-hours trading down six percent at around 296 dollars. However, McDonald's shares had also risen sharply in recent weeks, with the share price hitting another record high of almost 318 dollars on Monday. According to McDonald's, the trigger is suspected to be chopped onions, which are only used in the Quarter Pounder, the American equivalent of the Hamburger Royal. They came from a supplier that supplies three distribution centers. In five states and parts of seven others, the Quarter Pounder is now being temporarily withdrawn from supply.

Enphase Energy Inc. $ENPH (+6,64%) generated net sales of USD 380.873 million in the third quarter of 2024 (previous quarter: USD 303.458 million), a decline of 30.9% compared to the previous year. The Californian solar inverter provider's negative revenue growth thus slowed further. In the previous quarter, this was still down 57.3% on the previous year (Q1 2024: down 63.7%, Q4 2023: down 58.2%, Q3: up 13.2%, Q2: up 34.1%, Q1: up 64%). Enphase Energy's gross margin in the same period was around 46.8% (previous quarter: 45.2%, previous year: 47.5%). The solar technology company's operating result fell to plus USD 49.788 million in the reporting period (previous quarter: USD 1.799 million, previous year: USD 117.989 million). This left the US company with a net result of USD 45.762 million (previous year: USD 113.953 million) or (diluted) earnings per share (US GAAP) of USD 0.33 (previous year: USD 0.80).

The back and forth in the legal dispute over Postbank $DPB-takeover has had a negative impact on Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1,71%) Deutsche Bank's profits in the third quarter. Because the DAX-listed group was able to partially release a provision from the second quarter, shareholders received almost 1.5 billion euros on the bottom line. This was 42 percent more than a year earlier and more than analysts had expected on average. CEO Christian Sewing also considered buying back more shares when presenting the interim results on Wednesday. He expressed confidence that he would be able to distribute more capital to shareholders than originally planned. In the summer, Deutsche Bank still had worse news in store. Due to a provision of 1.3 billion euros in the Postbank legal dispute, it had even slipped into the red. However, following an agreement with the majority of the plaintiffs from among the former Postbank shareholders, it has now been able to release 440 million euros of this. The Management Board also reported positive developments in day-to-day business. CFO James von Moltke confirmed the target of generating income of 30 billion euros this year. The management also believes the bank is on track with its targets for 2025. Above all, the return on tangible equity should then reach more than 10 percent. In the third quarter, it was even slightly above this mark at 10.2 percent. Without the reversal of the provision, however, it would only have amounted to 7.6%.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Lowe's Companies 1.15 US

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 AT&T | GE Vernova quarterly figures

12:55 Coca-Cola quarterly figures

13:30 Boeing | General Dynamics quarterly figures

22:05 Tesla | Align Technology | Whirlpool quarterly figures

22:08 IBM quarterly figures

22:30 T-Mobile US quarterly figures

Untimed: Boeing union "International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union", vote on offer regarding wage increase

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Deutsche Bank | DWS | Amadeus Fire | Akzo Nobel | Kühne & Nagel | Volvo Car quarterly figures | Roche 3Q sales

07:20 Air Liquide sales 3Q

07:30 Atoss Software 9 months results

08:00 Deutsche Bank PK | Lloyds Banking Quarterly Figures | Reckitt Benckiser | Heineken Trading Update 3Q

09:30 Iberdrola 9 months results

10:00 Flatexdegiro analyst conference on the quarterly figures

11:00 Deutsche Bank Analyst Conference

14:00 Deutsche Börse Analyst and Investor Conference on the quarterly figures

17:40 Michelin | Kering Sales 9 months

17:50 Carrefour 3Q sales

Untimed: Givaudan end of investor day (since 22.10.)

Economic data

08:00 DE: Leading indicator foreign trade on exports to non-EU countries | Turnover in the service sector

14:00 DE: Deutsche Börse analyst and investor conference on the quarterly figures

15:00 US: Fed Governor Bowman, speech at the Philadelphia Fed's Annual Fintech Conference | IMF Fiscal Monitor

16:00 EU: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (flash estimate) October FORECAST: -12.5 previous: -12.9

16:00 US: Existing Home Sales September FORECAST: -0.5% yoy previous: -2.5% yoy

16:30 US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)

20:00 US: Fed, Beige Book

Enphase Energy before earnings. $ENPH (+6,64%)

Hello my dears,

Next week there will be figures for Enphase, perhaps an opportunity to start the 🚀 from the bottom upwards.

After a not so good year, I have picked out the estimates for you.

Since the beginning of the year, Vistra $VST (+1,56%) has become one of the top performers thanks to AI and data centers.

Do you see similar potential for Enphase?

According to estimates, it almost looks like it.

Earnings growth until 2026 amounts to 30%, which will reduce the P/E ratio to 19.93 next year

According to the share finder, Enphase is undervalued

EbiT margin: 2024: 21.30%

2025: 30,24%

2026: 34,25%

EbiT: 2024: 303.69 million

2025: 619.40 million

2026: 821.70 million

Turnover: 2024: 1.43 billion

2025: 2.05 billion

2026: 2.40 billion

Earnings per share: 2024: 2.51

2025: 4,60

2026: 5,51

Free cash flow: 2024: 383.76 million

2025: 549.15 million

2026: 679.85 million

Book value per share: 2024: 7.68

2025: 11,09

2026: 16,92

Market capitalization 11.42 billion

Earnings next week 🗓️

$SAP (-0,03%)

$NUE (+0,42%)

$VZ (-0,62%)

$GM (+1,81%)

$MMM (+1,06%)

$RTX (-0,37%)

$GE (+1,41%)

$ENPH (+6,64%)

$TXN (-0,01%)

$VRT (+2,61%)

$BA (-0,46%)

$T (-0,14%)

$KO (-0,4%)

$NEE (+1,64%)

$GEV (+2,49%)

$TMO (+0,81%)

$TSLA (-4,58%)

$LRCX (+0,38%)

$IBM (-0,87%)

$NOW (+1,32%)

$TMUS (+0,18%)

$AAL (+0,56%)

$UPS (+0,66%)

$LUV (+0,47%)

Economy on 24.04.2024...

Is this the end of the correction? Many quarterly figures...⤵️

Turnaround Tuesday has once again delivered what it promised. It almost looked like a strong recovery. Is this the end of the correction? Inflation is still high, the Middle East conflict continues and so on. The interest rate turnaround is not really clear yet either!

We are also back at a point where companies are disappointing with their quarterly figures, but the share price is still reacting very positively. We saw this today with Tesla. It was simply priced in much more. Let's take a look at the quarterly figures from yesterday and tonight:

$MUV2 (-1,1%)
Munich RE
achieved a combined ratio S/U reinsurance of around 75% in the 1st quarter according to preliminary figures; a net profit of around €2.1bn (previous year: €1.27bn, analyst consensus: €1.476bn) and an investment result with a return of 3.8%. In the outlook for 2024, the company continues to see a net profit of €5 billion (forecast: €5.12 billion). According to the management, the preliminary figures for the first quarter increase the probability of exceeding the full-year target.

$V (-0,14%)
Visa
beat analysts' estimates of $2.44 in the second quarter with earnings per share of $2.51. Sales of $8.78 billion exceeded expectations of $8.62 billion.

$PEP (+0,05%)
PepsiCo Inc.
first quarter earnings per share of $1.61 beat analysts' estimates of $1.52. Revenue of $18.25 billion beat expectations of $18.1 billion.

$TSLA (-4,58%)
Tesla
misses analysts' estimates of $0.52 in the first quarter with earnings per share of $0.45. Sales of $21.3 bn below expectations of $22.3 bn. Tesla invested one billion dollars in AI infrastructure in the first quarter and wants to accelerate the launch of cheaper models.

$TXN (-0,01%)
Texas Instruments
beat analyst estimates of $1.07 in the first quarter with earnings per share of $1.20. Sales of $3.66 bn above expectations of $3.61 bn.

$ENPH (+6,64%)
Enphase Energy
misses analysts' estimates of $0.42 in the first quarter with earnings per share of $0.35. Sales of $263.3m below expectations of $281.09m.

Let's take a look at the rest of the trading day today:

10:00

• DE: Ifo Business Climate Index April PROGNOSE: 88.8 PREVIOUS: 87.8 Situation assessment PROGNOSE: 88.6 PREVIOUS: 88.1 Business expectations PROGNOSE: 88.9 PREVIOUS: 87.5

14:00

Deutsche Börse Analyst and Investor Conference 1Q

14:30

US: New orders for durable goods March FORECAST: +2.6% yoy previous: +1.3% yoy

15:00

BE: Business Climate Index April FORECAST: n/a previously: -10.4 points

16:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)

ex-dividend of individual stocks

ING Groep 0.756 Euro

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

13:30 Boeing quarterly figures

14:30 AT&T quarterly figures

22:05 Ford quarterly figures

23:00 IBM quarterly figures

No time specified:

Align Technology | Lam Research | CME Group | Hasbro| Biogen Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Evotec | Roche | Volvo Car Quarterly figures

07:30 Orange SA | KPN Quarterly figures

07:45 Eni SpA Quarterly figures

08:00 Lloyds Banking | Heineken Trading Update 1Q

09:30 Iberdrola quarterly figures

10:00 Vitesco | Intesa Sanpaolo AGM

10:30 Eon PG for the presentation of the fourth H2 balance sheet

13:00 Volkswagen China Capital Markets Day

15:00 RTL Group AGM | Curevac Call on

17:40 Michelin 1Q sales

Without time: Einhell | Curevac

Hello everyone,

Today I would like to introduce you to my portfolio. As you probably know, it's just too much fun to expand my portfolio with new stocks. There are now a few too many, but I still can't really part with my worst-performing stocks ($NVM (-3,2%) , $ENPH (+6,64%) , $WAC (-0,93%) ). I'm hoping that I'll be able to sell them in positive territory at some point, or am I on the wrong track and in your opinion should I sell at a loss and try to make up the loss with other stocks?

I have been investing since the end of 2022 and at 29 years old, I still have a long time to go. My strategy is to be as desertified as possible in sectors and to beat the market in the long term (just let me believe that it works :D), hence so many individual stocks. I want to hold these for many years (esp. $AMZN (+0,26%) , $GOOGL (+0,94%) , $QCOM (+2,48%) , $MSFT (-1,05%) , $V (-0,14%) , $MC (-0,25%) , $SALM (-0,11%) ) but I'm also not too keen to pocket the profits. Are there any stocks in my portfolio that you would view critically for the next few years and would be worth considering selling? Recession and all that...

Priority is on growth, which is reasonably safe, so only a few small caps - but a few bets have to be in there :) ($AIDX (-2,2%) , $NRX (-0,62%) , $ITM (+2,92%) , $F3C (-0,91%) , $MITK (+2,05%) ). But with rather small amounts, probably too small or what do you say?

At the same time, I would also like to claim a €900 allowance via dividends ( $BATS (-0,24%) , $ENB (+0,76%) , $BNPQY , $STLAM (-0,17%) , $ENGI (+0,22%) , $RIO (-0,93%) ) and secure a trade or two.

Recently I have been investing 240€/m in the $XDWD (+0,24%) and between 200 - 500€/m in individual shares (depending on what is left). Actually, I want to increase the existing shares properly now, but somehow there are always nice entry options in solid companies like $0L2T (-2,42%) , $ZTS (+0,52%) , $ADM (+1,28%) , $PANW (-2,12%) , $ENR (+2,08%) . Help what to do? :D

And then there's also crypto $BTC (-1,83%)
$NEAR (-0,01%)
$ADA (-1,46%)

And Japan, they're doing well too $4063 (-1,14%) , $6501 (-2,62%) , $8001 (-0,17%)

Looking forward to your feedback and advice!

and buy no. 4

A very exciting moment on the chart!