The USA has had a permanent trade deficit for over 50 years. It imports more than it exports. Why is that? Because they have focused on high-tech. While other countries have built their factories for washing machines $WHR (-4,08%) sneakers $NKE (+0,14%) and tractors $DE (+1,3%) kept their factories running, the Americans preferred $MSFT (+1,5%) , $GOOGL (+1,12%), $NVDA (+2,71%) and $V (-0,36%) raised them. Technology instead of cheap production.

But: no world power can manage in the long term without industrial production. Trump now has three possible paths ahead of him:

1. introduce tariffs. Sounds like a heavy hand, but it often leads to less innovation and poorer quality because international competition is eliminated.

2. conclude trade agreements. In other words, deals that determine what is exported and imported, how much and where. More structured, but more laborious.

3. currency manipulation. Countries like Turkey or Denmark like to do this to boost their exports. For the USA, however, this is more difficult with the dollar as the world currency. If they start to manipulate it, everyone else will react too.

What is Trump doing instead? Exactly what he has always done: The big bluff.

With North Korea: threatening Rocketman as if he would flatten the whole country. Bluff.

With Gaza: the "hell on earth" rhetoric. Bluff.

With the Ukraine war: calling Zelensky a dictator and then a few days later pretending he never said anything. Bluff.

Now comes the next bluff. Against the EU. Against China. Against Jerome Powell.

He's playing the lunatic because that's how he understands the game. It worked in his reality show and it worked in the election campaign. He knows that if he goes crazy, everyone will stare at him spellbound. And that's enough for him to win. Chaos is part of his plan.

My conclusion: I won't be swayed by the fuss. I don't make investment decisions based on tweets and headlines. I'd rather take advantage of the weak dollar and keep buying

Here is also a suitable YouTube video: https://youtu.be/wIeTXYRajhw?si=NaVKDkc0xxDQtIwR

In uncertain times, it is important to keep a watchlist so that you can pick up stable shares at bargain prices. I hope we go down a few more levels, another -20% would be nice, even if the short to medium-term price losses hurt.

I currently have almost 30 stocks on my watchlist, some of which are attractive in terms of price, while others are still far too high for me. I have not listed stocks that are already in my portfolio and that I would like to buy (in order of dividend amount):

Hercules Capital $HTGC (+1,18%) or Main Street Capital $MAIN (+0,01%)
Chevron $CVX (+1,37%)

Vinci SA $DG (+2,46%)
United Parcel Service $UPS (+0,74%)
3i Infrastructure $3IN (+0,54%)
Iron Mountain $IRM (+1,4%)
Micro Star International $MSS
Nextera Energy $NEE (-2,44%)
Partners Group $PGHN (+1,54%)
Itochu Shoji $8001 (-1,35%)
Canadian National Railway $CNR (-1,04%)
Svenska Cellulosa $SCA B (-0,27%)
VAT $VAT
Investor AB $IVSB
Assa Abloy $ASSA B (+0,31%)
Linde $LIN (-0,3%)
John Deere $DE (+1,3%)
Landstar Systems $LSTR (+0,82%)
Dover Corporation $DOV (+1,87%)
Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (-2,57%)
ASML $ASML (+1,49%)
Infineon Technologies $IFX (+6,17%)
Sherwin-Williams $SHW (+0,51%)
Tencent $700 (-0,63%)
Microsoft $MSFT (+1,5%)
S&P Global Inc. $SPGI (+1,41%) or Moody's Corp. $MCO (+1,63%)
Visa $V (-0,36%) or Mastercard $MA (+0,25%)
Ferrari $RACE (+3,04%)

Which stocks do you have on your watchlist?

#aktien
#watchlist
#crash
#stock
#market

Next week won't be boring either 🫡

There's something for everyone 😁

What numbers are you looking forward to? 🧐

$MCD (-1,56%)
$VRTX (-1,65%)
$KO (-1,25%)
$SPGI (+1,41%)
$VRT (+5,84%)
$PANW (+3,24%)
$CVS (-0,81%)

$MEDP (+3,41%)
$ACLS (+6,7%)
$THC (+2,34%)
$TTD (+4,51%)
$CSCO (+0,93%)
$APP (+5,5%)
$HOOD (+4,69%)
$DE (+1,3%)
$AMAT (+2,52%)
$ABNB (+1,44%)

The following companies reached new all-time highs yesterday:

Amazon $AMZN (+1,57%)

Meta (formerly Facebook) $META (+0,74%)

Mastercard $MA (+0,25%)

Visa $V (-0,36%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (+5,76%)

Raytheon $RTX (+2,63%)

Deere $DE (+1,3%)

Spotify $SPOT (+0,84%)

ServiceNow $NOW

On Holding $ONON

Congratulations to all who are invested!

Which of these shares do you have in your portfolio and do you enjoy? Or are you invested in these companies via ETF?

Part 5 of 5
/ Review of the year 2024: In the first 4 parts

of my investment story, I looked at the years 2013 to 2023.

A mixture of highs and lows. While there was a lot of learning at the beginning, the last few years are finally bearing fruit!

Monthly view:

2024 was another very positive year, although December again resulted in a slight loss in the portfolio.

In total, December was -0,8%. This corresponds to price losses of -3.200€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was -0.9% and the S&P500 -2.5%.

In the following, however, I would like to look primarily at the whole of 2024 and not

just December.

Year as a whole:

Winners & losers:

The winner par excellence is hardly surprising NVIDIA $NVDA (+2,71%) with

almost €20,000 in share price gains! And this despite the fact that I took my entire stake of ~€4,000 off the table in March.

In 2nd place follows Bitcoin
$BTC (-1%) with approx. 6,000€ price gains. 3rd-5th place

are shared by TSMC $TSM (+3,45%)
Alphabet $GOOG (+0,78%) and Meta
$META (+0,74%) with gains of ~€5,000 each.

On the loser side it looks very relaxed all in all.

Sartorius $SRT (+1,08%)
Nike $NKE (+0,14%)

and Bechtle $BC8 (+0,55%) have each caused share price losses of ~€1,000. They are followed by LVMH $MC (+0,19%) with share price losses of €500 and Amgen $AMGN (+0,06%) with €200.

All in all, share price losses that are not really worth mentioning.

The performance-neutral movements in 2024 were just under €20,000. This is a significant decline compared to the almost €30,000 from previous years. This was due to some private issues and the upcoming house construction.

My performance for the year as a whole was +28,8% and therefore outperformed my benchmark, the MSCI World, by 25.8%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~347.000€. This

corresponds to an absolute growth of ~95,000€ in the current

year 2023. ~71.000€ of which comes from price gains, ~3.800€ from

dividends / interest and ~20.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• The dividends in December were 17% above the previous year at ~€370
• Amgen is in the lead with over 50€ (gross) dividend every 3 months
• For the year as a whole, my dividends amounted to ~2.900€ and thus almost 25% over 2023

Buys & sells:

- I bought in December for a significantly reduced ~500€

- As always, my savings plans were executed:

- Blue chips: Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,4%) Republic Services $RSG (-0,91%) Thermo Fisher $TMO (-2,83%) ASML $ASML (+1,49%) Northrop Grumman $NOC (-2,64%) Itochu $8001 (-1,35%) Constellation Software $CSU (+1,32%) Hermes $RMS Salesforce $CRM (+2,05%) MasterCard $MA (+0,25%) Deere $DE (+1,3%)

- Growth: -

- ETFs: MSCI World $XDWD (+1,11%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,4%)

- Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (-1%) and Ethereum $ETH (-2,34%)

- There were no further sales in December

Target 2024 & outlook 2025:

My goal for 2024 was to reach €300,000 in the portfolio. Due to the

extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio stands at ~€ 350,000 at the end of the year. I was therefore able to significantly exceed my target.

What will happen in 2025? The logical target, of course, would be 400.000€ to be achieved. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change.

However, as I am more likely to be tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably

probably refrain from doing so.

Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.

How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?

Finally, I wanted to say thank you again for all the positive reactions to my investment story!

https://linktr.ee/mister.ultra

#dividends
#dividende
#rückblick
#depotupdate
#aktie
#stocks
#etfs
#crypto
#personalstrategy

Deere Q3 2024 $DE (+1,3%)

Q4 2024:

Sales: USD 11.143 billion (-28% year-on-year)

Net profit: USD 1.245 billion (-47% year-on-year)

Earnings per share (diluted): USD 4.55 (-45% year-on-year)

Operating cash flow (financial year 2024): USD 9.231 billion

Full year 2024:

Sales: USD 51.716 billion (-16% year-on-year)

Net profit: USD 7.1 billion (-30% year-on-year)

Earnings per share (diluted): USD 25.62 (-26% year-on-year)

Non-recurring factors

Legal settlements: USD 57 million profit before taxes

Depreciation and amortization: USD 28 million in the "Small Agriculture & Turf" segment

Restructuring costs: USD 157 million before tax (USD 124 million after tax)

Quarterly overview

Production & Precision Agriculture: 38% decline in sales, 64% decline in operating profit

Small Agriculture & Turf: Decline in sales of 25%, operating profit down 47

Construction & Forestry: 29% drop in sales, 36% decline in operating profit

Balance sheet overview

Assets:

Total: USD 107.32 billion (2024 vs. USD 104.09 billion in 2023)

Cash and cash equivalents: USD 7.324 billion (-1.8% year-on-year)

Inventories: USD 7.093 billion (-13% year-on-year)

Liabilities:

Total: USD 84.395 billion (+2.7% year-on-year)

Non-current liabilities: USD 43.229 billion (+12 %)

Equity:

Shareholders' equity: USD 22.843 billion (+4.8 %)

Profit and loss account

Breakdown of sales:

Production & Precision Agriculture: USD 4.305 billion (-38% year-on-year)

Small Agriculture & Turf: USD 2.306 billion (-25% year-on-year)

Construction & Forestry: USD 2.664 billion (-29% year-on-year)

Margins:

Operating Margin:

Production & Precision Agriculture: 15.3 % (previous year: 26.4 %)

Small Agriculture & Turf: 10.1% (previous year: 14.4%)

Construction & Forestry: 12.3% (previous year: 13.8%)

Cash flow

Operating cash flow (financial year 2024): USD 9.231 billion (+7% year-on-year)

Used for: USD 1.64 billion investments, USD 4.007 billion share buybacks and USD 1.605 billion dividend payments

Investment cash flow: USD -6.464 billion, characterized by acquisitions and expenses for leased equipment

Financing cash flow: USD -2.717 billion, mainly due to debt repayments and returns to shareholders

Segment analysis

Best segment: Financial Services (+13 % year-on-year sales growth), driven by higher portfolio values

Weakest area: Production & Precision Agriculture (-38% decline in sales year-on-year)

Competitive position

Deere remains a leader in precision agriculture, but faces challenges such as lower delivery volumes and difficult market conditions.

Outlook and management comments

Net profit forecast (financial year 2025): USD 5.0 to 5.5 billion

Agriculture & Turf:

Large agricultural machinery in the USA: decline of approx. 30% expected

Europe: decline in sales of 5-10% forecast

Construction & Forestry:

Global forestry: Stable to -5 %

Risks and opportunities

Risks:

Declining demand in the agricultural sector

Rising interest rates put pressure on financing

Disruptions in the supply chain and geopolitical tensions

Opportunities:

Investments in technology and precision agriculture

Partnership with Banco Bradesco in Brazil to promote growth

Five positive aspects

1. strong operating cash flow (+7 % year-on-year)

2. resilience in the Financial Services division (+13% sales growth)

3. continued investment in customer-oriented innovations

4. restructuring measures that are expected to generate annual savings of USD 220 million

5. strategic partnership in Brazil reduces risks and promotes growth

Five negative aspects

1. significant decline in sales (-28% year-on-year in Q4)

2. declining operating margins in all key segments

3. high restructuring costs (USD 157 million before taxes)

4. weakness in core markets such as the USA and Europe

5. increased write-downs and loan loss provisions

Earnings next week | all eyes on $NVDA (+2,71%) 👀

$NVDA (+2,71%)

$SNOW (+3,69%)

$WMT (+0,48%)

$PANW (+3,24%)

$NIO (+5,44%)

$SYM

$TGT (+2,26%)

$ZIM (+1,49%)

$TCOM (-0,49%)

$WKHS

$LOW (+1,78%)

$BTBT

$POWL (+4,18%)

$BIDU (+1,23%)

$PDD (+1,23%)

$XPEV (+0,41%)

$TJX (+0,33%)

$JACK (-9,33%)

$WIX (+3,23%)

$BTDR (+5,62%)

$DE (+1,3%)

$MDT (+0,03%)

$AZEK (+1,87%)

$BRBR (+0,77%)

$CPA (+2,58%)

$EH

$ROST (+0,43%)

$DY (+1,76%)

$ESTC (+4,76%)

$GPS (+3,13%)

$INTU (+2,59%)

$BRC (+0,41%)

$TUYA (+3,39%)

$TWST (+5,01%)

$SQM (+1,62%)

$KEYS (+3,7%)

$BJ

$FUTU (+3,5%)

$VIPS (+0,44%)

$VIK

$ZTO (-0,89%)

$MMS

$MOND

$ATAT

$ACM

$ALLT (+1,87%)

$WSM (+3,1%)

$LZB (+0,59%)

$MYTE

$J (+1,9%)

Depot review September 2024 - The first green September in my depot since 2019 📈

September is generally regarded as the worst month on the stock market, with a negative monthly performance more than 50% of the time. This is also consistent with my experience since 2013. In 11 years, it has been negative 6 times and positive 5 times. From 2020 to 2023, the last 4 years were all negative. However, September 2024 is now the first positive September since 2019, which means it is exactly 50/50 for me - 6 positive and 6 negative Septembers since 2013.

The Fed's interest rate turnaround and the stimulus in China have certainly contributed to the positive trend

Monthly view:

In total, September was +1,2%. This corresponds to price gains of ~3.600€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +1.0% and the S&P500 +1.3%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month.

On the winning side at the very top are my China ETF with € +1,300 and is thus back in the green for the first time in a long time. The following winners are also a colorful mix with Meta, Bitcoin, Home Depot and Sea. Really a very broad mix with no clear tendency towards regions, sectors or the like

On the loser side in my portfolio in September were mainly pharmaceutical stocks. Novo Nordisk, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson. Even worse, with price losses of ~€700 each, were only Palo Alto Networks and ASML.

The performance-neutral movements in September were just under €4,500. The premium refund from my private health insurance also played a large part in this. In September, I received over €2,000 back for the year 2023, which was of course invested directly to compensate for any higher pension contributions.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +20,4% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 17.2%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~321.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€69,000 in the current year 2023. ~49.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~2.800€ from dividends / interest and ~17.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in September were 23% above the previous year at ~€360
• Amgen is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months. But Johnson & Johnson with €45 is also a delight
• In the current year, the dividends after 9 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.210€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in September for approx. 3,500€. 2,100 of this came from the premium refund from my private health insurance and went into the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsLockheed Martin $LMT (+0,4%) Republic Services $RSG (-0,91%) Thermo Fisher $TMO (-2,83%) ASML $ASML (+1,49%) MasterCard $MA (+0,25%) Deere $DE (+1,3%) Northrop Grumman $NOC (-2,64%) Itochu $8001 (-1,35%) Salesforce $CRM (+2,05%) Hermes $RMS (+0,61%) Constellation Software $CSU (+1,32%)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+1,11%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0,17%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,4%)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (-1%) and Ethereum $ETH (-2,34%)
• 
  Sales there were none in September

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio currently stands at ~€321,000.

At the beginning of September, my portfolio was still quite a bit lower at €304,000 due to the weak start to the month. At this point, it was therefore quite a way off the previous high of €320,000 in June.

I have now reached a new high of €321,000 and am optimistic that I can still beat my year-end target of €300,000.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy