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110Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook
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$AMZN (-2,01%)
$SBUX (-6,18%)
$GOOG (-1,25%)
$GOOGL (-1,34%)
$NET (-9,24%)
$PLTR (-10,73%)
$VNA (-0,92%)
$META (-3,53%)
If $NET (-9,24%) takes the 125.44 I'm in
Stop-buy order is at €1.45 on DE000HT1FBR8
Presumably because the New York Times reports on the Pentagon's war plans against China, which Musk was apparently briefed on at the Pentagon today.
In a military conflict between the two economic powers USA and China, the first "Line of Contact" would be a digital one: cyber attacks.
And even if only hypothetical scenarios are reported, this will probably already lead to an intensification of the constant mutual cyber attacks. Information is key.
Sources:
Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)
Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (-8,15%)
Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (-9,12%)
Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (-6,13%)
Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX
Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (-10,39%)
The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (-3,79%)
Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (-3,95%)
Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (-7,19%)
Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (-5,54%)
ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW
Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL
Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (-6,93%)
Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (-5,91%)
Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (-9,24%)
Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (-10,73%)
Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...
Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.
Your opinion?
I am looking forward to $PLTR (-10,73%) , $META (-3,53%) , $NET (-9,24%) and $SREN (-6,41%) ....
Forecast 2025
$NET (-9,24%) Earnings will come in a week.
Since Cloudflare has performed extremely well in recent months, I have partially sold a little less than my stake (approx. 40%)
Let's see what the earnings say. If the price comes back a little, I'll buy again.
How do you think the earnings will be?
... of infrastructure software.
The low cost of training and inference of the new model could trigger a new wave of AI adoption by improving the economics of AI projects and thus enabling wider use.
Increasing demand through lower costs:
DeepSeek's model offers superior inference performance at a disruptively low cost, which is expected to increase demand for AI solutions.
Bernstein points to previous examples, such as OpenAI's 4o-mini model, which promised lower prices with higher quality and increased usage by 50% within a quarter. Such effects could also occur again with DeepSeek.
Winners at the software infrastructure level:
Despite lower computational intensity, higher demand leads to opportunities for software vendors that provide the infrastructure for AI projects. This includes areas such as:
Data infrastructure (e.g. Confluent $CFLT (-6,15%) )
Identity management (e.g. Okta $OKTA (-8,65%) )
Observability tools (e.g. Datadog $DDOG (-5,84%) )
Communication technology (e.g. Twilio $TWLO (-5,49%) )
Browser integration and delivery (e.g. Cloudflare $NET (-9,24%) )
Platforms for service desk AI projects (e.g. ServiceNow $NOW (-5,16%) ) could also benefit, especially if they introduce a consumption-based pricing model that covers inference costs.
Hi, I want to use Sunday to ask you for your opinion on my portfolio. I'll give you my reasons for the positions briefly and concisely.
About myself. I'm 25 years old and am studying to become a mechanical engineer. That's why I'm currently holding a large cash position to bridge my time at school. The money will be invested once I have finished. I have only been more stable in my strategy for a year and made the typical beginner mistakes before that. I also hope to beat the market with my shares, but have been proven wrong in recent years. That's why I'm starting to build up a core.
For the rest, I am focusing on companies with a strong balance sheet and want to overweight the tech sector
$AMZN (-2,01%) I have due to the broad positioning. They have strong growth and, with AWS, an excellent market position in a future-oriented sector
$GOOGL (-1,34%) is for me one of the strongest companies in the world, they have an almost monopoly-like position in some areas
$ASML (-1,46%) an absolute monopolist in the chip sector, here I am betting on the blade manufacturer because I understand the system itself. I can't predict who will be ahead of the chip manufacturers in a few years' time. However, it won't work without the machines from Asml
$$UNH (-0,34%) has excellent growth opportunities in the USA as many people there do not yet have health insurance
$NOVO B (-6,15%) I bought with the view that diabetes cases will unfortunately increase worldwide and the weight loss injection sector will also continue to grow. It's just easier to take injections than to change your life fundamentally.
$CRWD (-5,91%) I see one of the strongest future sectors in the world. I picked them up when they crashed, because you can see in which areas they are involved everywhere. Without the crash I would have bought a sector ETF here.
$LIN (-4,59%) I expect the industrial gas sector to continue to grow steadily in the future. In addition, there is only one serious competitor in this market. I am not expecting a growth rocket here, but a stable anchor in the portfolio
$MC (-3,95%) Luxury always works and I think LVMH is well positioned here. Hermes would have been my other candidate, but it is too expensive for me.
$IWDA (-4,79%) I have been running a savings plan for a few months as I only really had a plan for how I wanted to invest about a year ago. It should become my core in the future, as you can clearly see that I have not been able to outperform the indices in recent years. Current savings rate is 500€
$BTC (+2,62%) I consider this to be future-proof after the Etfs and the announcements from various countries. This is also saved monthly with €75.
On the watch list would be stocks like:
I look forward to constructive opinions and suggestions.
Hi folks,
I would like to add a cybersecurity share to my portfolio this year. Since I'm sure some people are already invested here and I'm not yet familiar with the market (apart from the growth potential), I'd be interested in your opinion.
My favorite at first glance would probably be Palo Alto, even if I first have to read up on why there was such a sharp drop in profits. Which player would be your pick and why?
