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57With $TXRH (-3,04%)
$CMG (-4,65%)
$MCD (-4,77%)
$DRI (-4,16%)
$DPZ (-4,39%) I have a few restaurants in my savings plan portfolio 😁
Last earnings Texas Roadhouse
4Q 2024 4Q2023
Turnover 1.437 bn.$ 1,164 billion dollars
Net profit 115 million dollars 72 million dollars
EPS 1.73$ 1.08$
Source
Are you in the industry and what do you have in your portfolio?
Strong growth, high margins and impressive pricing power. After the recent correction, Chipotle $CMG (-4,65%) appears to be at an interesting level - I see further potential here in the long term. 🌯🔥
The restaurant operator Chipotle Mexican Grill was one of the outperformers on the market in 2024. Recently, however, the shares of the restaurant chain operator have fared less well on the stock market.
Chipotle remains on course for growth
- Despite recent losses, the majority of analysts remain optimistic
- Inflation, tariffs and CEO change as risk factors
Chipotle Mexican Grill's shares gained around 35% on the NYSE in 2024. Although the company was unable to keep up with the massive share price gains that some tea stocks have enjoyed, it still outperformed the broader market.
Disappointing sales forecast vs. business outlook
In the new year, however, things have been rather mixed on the stock market: the share price has fallen by more than six percent since the beginning of the year, with a disappointing sales outlook being one of the factors that put investors off and caused the share price to fall.
However, Chipotle has recorded continuous growth and is also operating profitably: in 2024, the company's bottom line was 1.5 billion dollars - reason enough to take a closer look at the share in terms of its suitability as a value investment. After all, strong business performance in the past can be an indicator that this will continue in the future.
There have been no major sales actions by insiders in the past, which speaks for the management's confidence in the share. In addition, Chipotle has apparently found potential applications for the use of artificial intelligence in its restaurants: They are looking for ways to use the technology to prevent customers from migrating to other options. "When the model detects that a customer's behavior is changing in a certain way that indicates a propensity to churn, we take them on a new journey with personalized extras and offers to encourage them to buy again," Scott Boatwright, Chipotle's new CEO, emphasized in a conference call following the release of the latest quarterly results. "I think these things will lead to significant differentiation in the digital channel," he continued.
Expansion also remains an important cornerstone of Chipotle's future strategy: between 315 and 345 new restaurants are to be added in 2025 alone, which is expected to have a positive impact on sales growth.
Chipotle successfully combats headwind factors
However, Chipotle's business has not been running entirely smoothly recently. The fact that Starbucks poached the CEO of the restaurant chain in the summer of 2024 was not well received by investors, even though Chipotle shares were able to recoup their subsequent losses. However, the new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol was considered a stroke of luck for Chipotle; under his leadership, the once ailing chain was brought into the digital age. As successor to Chipotle founder Steve Ells, he introduced app ordering - just in time before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. He also drastically revised other existing concepts and expanded the menu to include lifestyle products aimed at appealing to health and nutrition-conscious customers. Despite the economic success and digitalization that Niccol was able to achieve, there was also increasing criticism of the company. The portion sizes in particular caused displeasure among customers and even led to Chipotle being sued by shareholders. The company, which has become increasingly digitalized, was punished on social media - but nevertheless managed to remain on course for growth. The new CEO is therefore unlikely to see any need to deviate from the financially successful company policy of his predecessor.
However, Chipotle cannot completely decouple itself from economic developments. The company is struggling with high inflation - however, the restaurant operator reacted to this with price increases, which were also intended to at least partially compensate for the promised larger portions - and did so. This is because margins rose in 2024 as a whole, while many other restaurant operators had to accept cutbacks in this area.
Burrito vendors are also feeling the effects of the new Trump administration. The punitive tariffs announced against neighboring countries could have an impact on the balance sheet, particularly with regard to imports of avocados from Mexico. Around 50 percent of the fruit is currently imported from the neighboring country, which is why costs in this area could rise. Alternatively, the US company could be forced to switch to other export countries. However, according to the company, the economic consequences should remain manageable: Chipotle expects its distribution costs to rise by 60 basis points, or 0.6 percentage points. Nevertheless, there is likely to be a need for action on this front if Trump's plans for punitive tariffs of 25 percent on Mexican imports, which were initially suspended for a month, are actually implemented.
This is how analysts rate Chipotle shares
Despite possible headwind factors, analysts generally rate the share positively. Of the 24 analysts listed on TipRanks, 18 rate Chipotle shares as a buy, while six experts have issued a hold rating for the stock. The average price target is USD 67.71, which means that the share still has around 19 percent upside potential.
However, it remains to be seen whether it can be classified as a value investment against this background. Star investor Warren Buffett, who is regarded as the grandmaster of value investing, has not yet identified the share as an investment.
$CMG (-4,65%)
Fourth quarter
Total financial year
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.25 (Est. $0.24) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $2.85B (Est. $2.85B) 🟡
🔹 Q4 Comparable Sales: +5.4% (Est. +5.6%) 🔴
Guidance:
🔹 FY'25 Comparable Sales Growth: Low to mid-single digits (Est. +5.2%) 🔴
🔹 New Restaurant Openings: 315-345 (80% to include a Chipotlane)
Margins & Profitability:
🔹 Operating Margin: 14.6% (Prev. 14.4%)
🔹 Restaurant-Level Operating Margin: 24.8% (Prev. 25.4%)
🔹 Food, Beverage & Packaging Costs: 30.4% of revenue (Prev. 29.7%)
🔹 Labor Costs: 25.2% of revenue (Prev. 25.0%)
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 24.4% (Prev. 26.2%)
Expansion & Digital Performance:
🔹 New Restaurants in Q4: 119, with 95 including a Chipotlane
🔹 Full-Year New Restaurants: 304, with 257 including a Chipotlane
🔹 Digital Sales Contribution: 34.4% of total revenue
Strategic & Business Updates:
🔸 Price Increases: Implemented 2% menu price hike to offset higher avocado & beef costs
🔸 Consumer Trends: Budget-conscious consumers reacting to higher menu prices
🔸 Supply Chain Risks: Tariffs on Mexico could further increase avocado costs
🔸 CEO Transition: Scott Boatwright officially took over as CEO in November 2024
CEO Scott Boatwright’s Commentary:
🔸 "Chipotle delivered strong transaction-driven comps, expanded margins, and added over 300 new restaurants. We are committed to scaling our brand while focusing on customer experience and operational excellence."
I will be paying particular attention to the following companies next week when they publish their quarterly figures:
Palantir $PLTR (-11,65%)
Spotify $SPOT (-9,04%)
Chipotle $CMG (-4,65%)
Alphabet $GOOGL (-2,74%)
Fair Isaac $FICO (-6,29%)
AMD $AMD (-8,01%)
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-6,66%)
Roblox $RBLX
Hilton $HLT (-3,39%)
Amazon $AMZN (-3,47%)
Do you also take a closer look here or do you have other companies in mind?
Hello everyone, with Donald Trump and Elon Musk in office, I'm expecting volatile times ahead. I have therefore carried out a check on my portfolio to determine how solid my foundation (core) still is.
The following criteria were used for the check
Quality check
The quality check examines shares for the quality of the business model and the stability of the balance sheet
Enduring qualities
The long-term indicator checks whether share prices are constantly rising.
Outperformer check
Every investor is confronted with the question of whether to invest money passively in ETFs or in individual shares. A share should rise by more than 10% per year for an investment to be worthwhile.
KUV monster
When companies are hyped and everyone knows about the quality of a company, the return potential is usually low. The top 5% of the most highly valued shares according to the KUV criterion are problematic.
The following companies from my portfolio stood out in this regard
buy and leave.
Alphabet $GOOG (-2,49%) Modine Manuf. $MOD (-2,75%) Chipotle $CMG (-4,65%)
Microsoft $MSFT (-2,36%) Copart $CPRT (-3%) Vertex $VRTX (+0,82%)
Constellation Software $CSU (-3,77%) Man and machine $MUM (-2,51%)
Corcept Therap. $CORT (-6,03%) Tetra Tech $TTI (-16,79%) TransDigm Group $TDG (-8,47%)
IES Holding $IES ASML $ASML (-2,09%)
+ 6
In 1981, McDonald's and Burger King went to war.
Burger King hired a 5-year-old girl for an ironic commercial.
McDonald's then sued the five-year-old.
This was the beginning of the most expensive fast food war in history.
McDonald's dominates the fast food market with its iconic golden arches and Happy Meals.
But Burger King was tired of playing second fiddle.
So they published an ad that would start a decades-long war:
They hired 5-year-old Sarah Michelle Gellar (some may remember her) to do something unprecedented:
They attacked McDonald's by name on national television.
In the ad, she compared McDonald's burgers to Burger King's, claiming they were 20 percent smaller.
What happened next would change fast food marketing forever ...
McDonald's immediately filed a lawsuit:
- Burger King
- Their advertising agency
- And yes, even 5-year-old Sarah Michelle Gellar herself
"I was the first person to mention another competitor's name on a job," Gellar later recalled.
But that was just the beginning ...
The legal dispute triggered the so-called "Burger War".
Both chains have abandoned their traditional family-friendly marketing.
Before 1980, both focused on positive campaigns - McDonald's with Happy Meals, Burger King with "Have it Your Way".
In 1984, McDonald's launched its counterattack:
The McDLT - a direct competitor to the Whopper.
The innovation? A unique two-chamber packaging:
- Warm side dish: burger and bottom bun
- Cool side dish: lettuce, tomato and top bun
"Keep the hot side hot and the cool side cool."
They put EVERYTHING on the McDLT:
80-100 million dollars were spent on the campaign.
Convinced Jason Alexander to perform a Broadway-style musical commercial, years before his Seinfeld fame.
The burger sold for $1.49 (about $3.60 today).
But there was a problem ...
McDLT's innovative packaging was made of polystyrene.
As environmental awareness grew at the end of the 1980s, McDonald's came under increasing pressure.
They discontinued production of the product in December 1990 and replaced it with the McLean Deluxe.
Meanwhile, Burger King was preparing its own disaster ...
In 1985, Burger King launched the "Where's Herb?" campaign.
The concept? A promotional campaign to find Herb - a fictional character who has never eaten a Whopper.
Customers could get Whoppers at a reduced price by saying "I'm not Herb" when ordering.
However, there was one big problem:
No one knew what Herb looked like until he was unveiled at Super Bowl XX in January 1986.
The campaign left customers completely confused.
It became known as one of the worst marketing failures in history.
It was their last campaign with the agency J. Walter Thompson.
The rivalry led to unprecedented innovations in the fast food sector:
- New packaging technology such as the McDLT's double compartment
- Creative marketing approaches
- Menu diversification
- Focus on food quality
Both chains were forced to evolve or die.
The burger wars have shown us something crucial:
Innovation is not just about products.
It's about how you tell your story.
And in today's digital age, this is more important than ever.
McDonald's and Burger King spent millions fighting for attention.
$MCD (-4,77%) , $QSR (-5,52%) , $CMG (-4,65%) , $YUM (-7,67%) , $WEN (-4,46%) , $DPZ (-4,39%)
+ 5
I’m thinking about investing around $700 in $HLT (-3,39%) and $CMG (-4,65%)
I have a lot of pretty risky stocks like $BA (-8,12%) and $INTC (-10,9%) so I’m trying to add some stocks with consistent growth
Chart technology from the picture book IV
+ fairy tale
Starbucks
It's not just coffee. It's Starbucks.
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The technical chart of Starbucks shows mixed signals depending on the time perspective.
The short-term and medium-term indicators and oscillators are currently pointing to a buying trend. There was also a golden cross at the end of September 24, for example.
The support levels seem to be holding well.
Over the last 2 years or so, Starbucks has tended to move sideways with ups and downs. (Beta 0.90)
I have not researched the reasons, but I can think of a few points off the top of my head that could have been partly responsible for the poor performance.
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A look at the annual candles shows a bullish candle with a long shadow for 2024. This could be a bullish reversal signal. The CEO change was received very positively by the market and has also led to increased buying volume again.
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If you look at the chat with monthly candles, on the other hand, you can see a bullish flag in my opinion, but it could still turn bearish.
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Conclusion:
In my opinion, Starbucks is currently not an attractive investment in view of the market uncertainty that can be seen in the chart, the negative equity and the high level of debt. Starbucks could be more interesting for a trader. As always, just my opinion and a lot of gut feeling 🤓
