The most common pushback against the bullish silver thesis is: âDonât worry, solar will just switch from silver to copper.â How plausible is that?
Alexander Campbell (ex Head of Commodities at Bridgewater) frames it this way:
đ»Demand destruction threshold
âą He puts the âbreak-even / where demand destruction even beginsâ around $134/oz (not a price target, but the level where the squeeze starts to bite).
âł The bottleneck is time (not money)
âą Rough math: ~300 factories worldwide, ~1.5 years to convert each to copper plating, and ~60 factories/year parallel capacity --> ~4 years minimum to reach 50% copper adoption.
đž Even if economics scream âdo itââŠ
âą Around $125/oz, payback drops below 1 year, but âdeciding tomorrowâ still doesnât compress the industrial timeline (physics/operations > incentives)
đ ïž Not plug-and-play
âą Switching to copper isnât a simple input swap; it requires process/design changes, manufacturing workflow changes, and retraining/qualification.
đ The mix effect (PERC â TOPCon â HJT)
âą While copper is discussed, the tech mix shift can increase silver intensity on average (he cites ~13.5 mg/W in 2025 vs ~15.2 mg/W in 2030).
â
Bottom line
Copper may be the long-term âend stateâ, but itâs unlikely to be an immediate kill switch. Silver can move faster than the PV supply chain can retool.
https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/10-silver-days-of-christmas
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