I've just shuffled around a bit and added two new positions to my portfolio. $CAE (+0%) the Canadian simulator and training specialist for aviation and $FCT (-1,24%) and Fincantieri, the Italian shipbuilder
Why exactly now?
I find the mix at CAE super exciting right now. The defense sector is doing really well, with the geopolitical situation and higher defense spending worldwide, there's a real tailwind, large orders and stable margins.
The Civil division has weakened somewhat, but overall analysts see the company as undervalued (many DCF models say 35-40% upside). In the long term, I believe that the demand for high-quality simulation (also for e-aviation and new tech) will continue to explode. I thought to myself: good quality at a reasonable price, fits into my portfolio.
I was convinced by Fincantieri's new business plan for 2030, with which they want to push sales by 40%, almost double EBITDA and achieve a net profit of €500 million by 2030 - primarily through the massive expansion in the defense and underwater sectors.
The order backlog is at an all-time high, new contracts are expected to flow in in 2026, and with global military spending on the rise, this fits in perfectly. But what I find particularly interesting is that they took over Leonardo's underwater division (the old WASS with torpedoes, sonar and underwater weapon systems) at the beginning of 2025.
That was a deal worth €415 million, and now it all belongs to Fincantieri. I see mega synergies there - shipbuilding plus complete underwater technology from a single source, strengthens their position as an integrator in the naval defense sector enormously and could boost growth even further. Of course, there are always execution risks, but I got in cheaply on the dip and am holding it for the long term.
I never had Fincantieri on my radar until a few months ago. But by then it was already too expensive for me. Now I'm using the pullback for a (hopefully) good entry.
The dividend is also being discussed for both! Fincantieri from 2028, depending on the FY27 figures. CAE is not so concrete, but it has been discussed.
I'm curious to see how this develops - I bought both as medium to long-term holdings, not for the quick flip. Let's see what the next quarters bring!