Brent Oil Forum

The Iran attacks again Israel with missiles again because Israel is smoking out their network of Hezbollahs in Lebanon and Iran wants to save face so as not to look weak. Everyone wants to have the last word down there. Financial markets and cryptos are falling as a result. Precious metals, oil and defense stocks are rising.

The same thing happened back in April when Israel sent a VIP into the sky. Many YouTubers immediately called for a third world war. They were wrong, of course, because the world has rarely ended before. After a few days it was all over and the iran. Most of the missiles and drones were intercepted and neutralized.

The S&P 500 fell by just 4,46% from 11 to 19 April. That was only six trading days and the panic was in vain again. Buying / buying later was the right decision at the time. Opinions? #gold
#iran
#israel
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JP Morgan ($JPM (+0,97 %)) has estimated that the equilibrium price for WTI crude oil ($OD7F) is around US dollar
per barrel per barrel. This means that a price of 60
US dollar
per barrel is considered too low to incentivize sufficient production, possibly leading to an increase to 100 US dollars per barrel next year.

They also forecast that the price of Brent crude oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %)), the international benchmark, later in 2024 the mark of 100 US dollars per barrel could be tested. This is due to the decision of Russiato cut production in the second quarter by an additional 471k per day in the second quarter. JP Morgan estimates that Brent prices will rise by May the mid 90s US dollar and by September close to 100 US dollars could be reached if no political, supply or demand-side reactions.

The prices for US WTI crude oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %)) have fallen to 81.76 US dollars per barrel per barrel. The main reason for this price increase was an unexpectedly large reduction in crude oil stocks in the USA. Specifically, the amount of crude oil in storage fell by 1,923
million barrels and the gasoline stocks by 2.954 million barrels. These declines obviously signal a stronger demand for oilwhich is driving prices up.

In addition, the Hurricane Berylcurrently passing through the Caribbean has led to further price increases contributed to further price increases. A hurricane can disrupt oil production and refineries along the US Gulf Coast which could reduce the available supply of oil. These potential production outages will lead to a further shortage supply and drive prices up further.

The USA support Angolaone of Africa's largest oil producers, in building up an industry to process critical minerals. This is intended to reduce dependence on oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ).

The cooperation is to be supported by the US-led Minerals Security Partnership which supports projects along the entire supply chain for clean energy supply chain. Angola plans to use this cooperation to grow economically. In addition, the USA clean energy projects in Angola. Angola Angola, including the construction of two solar solar power plants with a loan of over 900 million US dollars.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday released positive inventory figures published yesterday. Interestingly, the time spreadsan indicator of the relationship between short term and long term oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ), have narrowed further, indicating a possible stability in the market, but we must not forget the geopolitical risk.

API's data shows that US crude oil inventories in the last week by 3.23 million barrels last week, while the estimates of the market point to an increase of 1.3 million barrels were. The API also reported a decline in crude oil inventories in Cushing by 0.9 million barrels. On the product side, the gasoline stocks by 0.59 million barrels while distillate stocks fell by 0.72 million barrels have risen. This indicates that the demand for gasoline has increased, while possibly more distillates such as heating oil were produced.

The Russian Ministry of Economy estimated that the crude oil exports will increase slightly this year, mainly as a result of Russia's agreement to end production cuts under the OPEC+ plan to stabilize the oil oil market to stabilize the oil market. China is also planning to reduce its oil product exports in May.

⚠️ last UPDATE 03:12 ⚠️

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Price Tatget for oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ): 100$

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Short summary:

The Iran has launched a massive drone attack on Israel by launching more than 50
drones towards Israeli airspace. In response, both the Iranian as well as the Israeli airspace were closed, and Jordan also followed suit. US President Biden and Scholz, expressed their support for Israel and condemned the actions of Iran.

▪️Iranischer🇮🇷 Drone attack on Israel🇮🇱announced.

▪️🇮🇷 Drones reported on the way to 🇮🇱

▪️🇮🇷 Drones over Iraq🇮🇶 spotted during the attack on 🇮🇱

▪️🇮🇱 Preparation for direct attack of 🇮🇷 announced.

▪️ Closure of 🇮🇱 airspace reported.

▪️Schließung of the 🇯🇴 airspace due to the 🇮🇷 drone attack on 🇮🇱.

▪️🇮🇷 Drone attack on 🇮🇱 confirmed.

▪️Notfalltreffen of the 🇺🇳 Security Council convened.

▪️🇮🇱 announces measures to counter all air threats to counter all air threats.

▪️🇮🇱 calls Emergency meeting of the 🇺🇳 Security Council convenes.

▪️🇺🇸 and 🇩🇪🇦🇹 express their support for 🇮🇱 and condemn the 🇮🇷 attack.

▪️Telefonat between Biden and Netanyahu

▪️🇺🇳 Secretary General condemns the 🇮🇷 attack on 🇮🇱

▪️🇺🇸🇬🇧 Fighter jets shoot down 🇮🇷 drones in 🇸🇾 down.

▪️Berichte about injuries caused by 🇮🇷 attack on 🇮🇱.

▪️Angriff on base with 🇺🇸 troops near the airport Erbil airport reported in 🇮🇶.

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The impact of the conflict on oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ) are considerable, as the risk of supply disruptions will lead to a major price increase. The war in the Gaza Strip alone has already had some impact on oil prices.

The Iranian attack on Israel will put additional pressure on oil prices as will the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by OPECwhich has been extended to maintain market stability. I

forecast that the price will remain at around 100 US dollars will end up

Indiawhich is one of the largest oil consumer andimporterswill be particularly vulnerable to further levels of conflict. The impact of the Gaza war on India has been minimal so far, but the current escalation will put a big dot in the big picture, on the oil supply India's oil supply and even jeopardize it as India is heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East imports from the Middle East.

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My forecast for Zinssenkung🇺🇸:

🟢Current forecast: September 24

🔴Previous forecast (October 23): July 2024

Rationale:

The inflation indicates that the FED will refrain from cutting interest rates for the time being. The estimates for an interest rate cut in June have fallen significantly and I expect that the FED at the earliest in September could take action.

The core inflationfor the March amounted to around 3,8% and is clearly above the estimates. In general, current inflation leaves no scope for interest rate cuts, as a normalization of the CPI data are low, which of course makes an interest rate hike unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Especially the sectors healthcare and transportation are contributing to inflation remaining at a high level overall. High petrol prices, which are driven by high oil prices ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ), the FED is basically only able to maintain the current interest rate. The oil prices have been driven up by EIA reports and geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict and of course the Houthi rebels have added significantly to this.

Given these circumstances, a rate cut in June is unlikely. In my opinion, July is also unlikely to see no interest rate cut either. September is therefore the most likely time for a relaxed easing.

What is important to consider now? I would focus strongly on commodities and US elections.

All eyes are currently on oil ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ), as the prices for future oil supplies are lower than the current spot price, which is called backwardation. Normally, backwardation means that traders estimate that prices will fall in the future, but currently it is different, as traders expect oil inventories to fall in the course of the year 2024 will continue to fall and the price will therefore rise.

One of the reasons is the extension of the production cuts by the OPEC. Saudi Arabia etc. have decided to reduce their oil production in order to stabilize prices. This has led traders to believe that oil supplies could become scarcer in the future.

• [HQ, Vienna]

In addition, there is a shipping agreement between China and Russia with the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Houthi rebels are currently disrupting important sea routes through which a lot of oil is transported. In other words, the geopolitical factor will remain relevant in the long term. Around 12% of the global oil is transported through the Red Sea.

Current developments in the commodities sector show a number of new changes. Copper ($B4NQ ) yesterday reached a 11 month high yesterday after major smelters in China agreed to control their capacities.

This is part of an agreement between 19 smelterswho have agreed to this, maintenance work to restructure maintenance work, operating times reduce operating times and delay the start of new projects and delay the start of new projects. This shows China's efforts to reduce its dependence on imported copper and to meet the increasing demand from the green energy sector.

At the same time, mining companies are increasingly facing environmental audits. There are currently massive protests against the closure of the First Quantum Mine in Panama, which has led to its closure. The Cobre Panama copper mine is one of the world's largest sources of copper.

The oil prices ($IOIL00 (-2,03 %) ) are also rising after drone strikes by Ukraine disrupted the operation of oil refineries in Russia have been disrupted. The attack has disrupted the operation of 3 oil refineries including the Rosneft PJSC plant in Ryazanwhich is one of the largest refineries in Russia.

In addition, the weekly inventory of the EIA report¹, which showed a decline in crude oil inventories in the USA by 1.5 million barrels in the first quarter. This was the first decline in crude oil inventories for almost two months.