Bitcoin Cash Forum

Bitcoin cycles in the year of the halving. If September was green for Bitcoin, the following three months were all green. Bitcoin is up 11.5% this September and there are only four trading days (including today) left this month. Where do you see the Bitcoin price at the end of the year? My guess is $100,000 (currently $65,000).

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$BTC (-0,54 %)
Tell me you have too big an ego without telling me you have too big an ego:

https://max-otte-fonds.de/max-otte-bitcoin-kritik/

The good Max Otte has finally found Bitcoin's flaw! As a critic for years, he was enraged by the constant new highs in the Bitcoin price.

Now he recently read the new book "Hijacking Bitcoin", in which Roger Ver, formerly known as the "Bitcoin Jesus", describes his view of the "Blocksize Wars" and claims that Bitcoin has been hijacked.

Between 2015 and 2017, a significant lobby formed around Roger Ver, also known as the "Big Blockers", who wanted to change Bitcoin by increasing the block size limit of Bitcoin (1MB per block). Almost all of the major institutional players at the time, such as Coinbase and Grayscale, were involved, as well as around 80% of all miners.

Behind closed doors on May 22, 2017, the so-called "New York Agreement", it was decided that the block size limit would be increased, resulting in a hard fork of the network. Almost all of the institutions in the "big blocker" camp were involved, but no one from the "small blockers" was invited.

https://dcgco.medium.com/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77

The big blockers called for the block size limit to be increased so that Bitcoin could be used quickly as a means of payment. The larger the blocks, the more transactions could have been executed per block.

But what would have been the fatal consequence?

Due to the large blocks, the blockchain would have quickly grown into a data monster.

Today, thanks to the block size limit, anyone can operate a Bitcoin fullnode (node) at home with a small mini-computer. This full node can be seen as a voting right in the network, as each individual can decide for themselves which updates to the Bitcoin network to install on it - and which not.

If the blockchain were many terrabytes in size, it would probably be difficult for private individuals to afford to operate such a node.

-> The network would have become increasingly centralized.

But which players would have had the capacity to do so?🤔

The institutions that wanted the large blocks, of course. Basically, the institutions tried to take control of the network (not the other way around!) and would have been able to determine the rules of the network in the long term.

Long Story Short: The people with their nodes did not install the update at the time and did not bow to the institutions.

The fork of the network $BCH (+0,08 %) was created, which today has no economic relevance compared to Bitcoin. The miners were forced to remain in the conventional Bitcoin network, as they would have earned nothing in a network without users.

This event has shown how resilient the Bitcoin network is to such "hostile takeovers".

Have a nice evening!

$BTC (-0,54 %) - What are the biggest threats to the network?

A slightly different post from me today. As I usually only write absolutely bullishly about Bitcoin, I still see dangers that could even cause Bitcoin to fail.

When you have almost your entire net worth in an asset, you often think about it -> and I would like to share this with you today and give you a brief assessment of what I think about it.

1. disagreements in the community and hard forks

Bitcoiners often like to argue with nocoiners, but Bitcoiners also often argue passionately with each other. All you have to do is go to "Bitcoin Twitter" and take a look at how the bubble is always shouting at each other😂

So what could happen in the future?

What if the disagreement over the continued existence of Bitcoin continues to polarize and different camps form again like in 2016/17, each wanting to take a different path for the Bitcoin network?

Back then, a camp formed around "Bitcoin Jesus" Roger Ver in the so-called "Blocksize Wars", which called for larger blocks. The aim was to increase the block size limit per block from 1 MB to 8 MB. This would have meant that Bitcoin could have accepted more transactions per block and would therefore have been more suitable for paying for goods and services. However, it would also have had the disadvantage that decentralization would have suffered greatly. Until now, anyone with a small mini-computer and a hard disk could operate a Bitcoin node at home - by increasing the block size limit, this would perhaps only have been possible in future via larger service providers with corresponding computing capacity.

And so there was a Bitcoin hard fork in 2017, from which $BCH (+0,08 %) emerged from. The users then opted for $BTC (-0,54 %) and Bitcoin Cash is therefore only worth a fraction of Bitcoin today.

(If anyone is more interested in this, I could recommend the book "The Blocksize War" by Jonathan Bier (yes I know, cool name) 😊)

What happens if this happens again? What if at some point there are even three camps of relatively equal size? What if people lose confidence in Bitcoin due to the inconsistencies and risks involved?

That's why I'm always a little skeptical of Bitcoin "leaders" like Roger Ver back then or Michael Saylor today. These people enjoy a high reputation in the community and are polarizing. What if Michael Saylor wants to push the community in one direction at some point?

2. coordinated bans by states

Another significant risk is that governments around the world could attempt to ban Bitcoin in a coordinated manner. Governments could take measures to prevent the trading, use and mining of Bitcoin, which would lead to a drastic decline in the acceptance and value of Bitcoin.

Again, given the "unity" that exists in our world, I think this is highly unlikely. In my opinion, game theory will always prevail here and some states will open their arms wide as soon as others ban Bitcoin.

3. threat from quantum computers

The development of quantum computers could pose a threat to the security of Bitcoin. Quantum computers could be able to break the cryptographic algorithms that secure Bitcoin, including elliptic curve cryptography and SHA-256. If this happens, attackers could manipulate transactions, hack Bitcoin addresses and destabilize the entire network.

What sounds terrible now is still miles away - but I would never rule out that it might not be possible at some point.

But until then, there will be a creeping process of quantum computers getting closer and closer to possibly being able to do this and until then, updating the Bitcoin network to "quantum secure addresses" can prevent the network from failing - but beware! This can only be done with a hard fork - i.e. a fork of the network (as with $BCH (+0,08 %)) and therefore also involves risks.

4 The failure of self-custody

Another potential weakness of Bitcoin lies in self-custody, i.e. the self-custody of one's own coins. If self-custody does not catch on and the absolute majority of users rely on service providers such as banks and crypto exchanges, this could undermine the central idea of Bitcoin. Assuming that the majority of available coins are held in the Bitcoin spot ETFs in the USA - similar to gold in the past - the USA could issue an executive order and confiscate a large proportion of Bitcoin.

Therefore: Move your coins to a hardware wallet!

5th revelation by Satoshi Nakamoto

The identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, remains unknown to this day. However, should Nakamoto be revealed and, for example, sell his approximately 1 million Bitcoin, this could significantly destabilize the market. The sale of such a large amount of Bitcoin would cause the price to plummet and presumably shake confidence in Bitcoin. In addition, the revelation of Nakamoto would destroy the founding myth of Bitcoin with the unknown "creator".

Nevertheless, I think that Bitcoin could even recover from this - after all, Satoshi no longer has any power over the network and the price could simply stabilize again after a while.

Conclusion

Even as an absolutely convinced Bitcoiner, you should think about the risks of Bitcoin. After all, nothing in the world is 100% secure. Nevertheless, I consider all the dangers mentioned to be highly unlikely and can therefore continue to sleep well. If at some point there are signs that, for example, different camps are forming in the community that are all looking for a new hard fork or we are moving in a direction where quantum computers could slowly become dangerous, I will reduce my position accordingly.

Now I would like to know:

What is your opinion on the threats to Bitcoin I mentioned?

What potential dangers do you see for Bitcoin?

Have a great start to the new week! ☀️

#bitcoin
#btc

47.000 $BTC (-0,54 %)
and 47,000 $BCH (+0,08 %) will land on the Kraken crypto exchange within the next 7-14 days
and are ready for sale.

Or will simply continue to be held.

The Bitcoin (and Bitcoin Cash in the same amount) that @stefan_21 mentioned in his article went to the crypto exchange Kraken and will be paid out to the creditors of Mt.Gox in the next 7-14 days. They can trade them immediately or simply continue to hodl. This was revealed in an official email from Kraken.

What impact will this have on the price?

Probably not directly on the Bitcoin price. Not everyone will sell. Some will hodl and some will exchange Bitcoin Cash for Bitcoin, which could increase demand in the short term. I don't expect an indirect impact on the Bitcoin price either, as it was already known that distribution would start in July and this should therefore already be priced in.

In my opinion, however, Bitcoin Cash could go downhill for the time being.

Over 100,000 $BTC (-0,54 %) change hands from July

Mt.Gox starts paying out to creditors

The payment will not be made all at once but is expected to be spread over the next few months up to and including October. After that, the creditors who have opted for the final payment are still open.

Not all creditors will certainly sell directly, but some will. Especially as the coins will be paid out directly to crypto exchanges, such as Kraken, to the creditors' accounts and not to the creditors' private wallets. This lowers the barrier to selling even further.

In addition to Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash $BCH (+0,08 %) will also be paid out. Accordingly, prices could come under pressure in the short term, if not already priced in.

https://www.btc-echo.de/schlagzeilen/enormer-verkaufsdruck-mt-gox-auszahlungen-beginnen-im-juli-187007/

Opinion on $BCH (+0,08 %) ?

The past week was really impressive as far as crypto is concerned. The crypto cycle was impressively visible in miniature format. At the beginning of the week $BTC (-0,54 %) rose in the form of a staircase and has $ETH (+1,84 %) followed with a time lag. Altcoins then followed with consolidation.

In detail, for example $BCH (+0,08 %) , $LTC (+2,37 %) , $LINK (-1,83 %) or $DOT (+0,91 %) rose behind BTC and ETH.

You can also roughly see in the charts below how the money first goes into BTC, when this is saturated then into ETH and finally into altcoins. So I think you can really ride the crypto wave, despite the enormous risk.

But this is not investment advice! Icould be completely wrong. Please make up your own mind. This is just my interpretation. I will ride this wave in the coming bull market and since very little of my total assets are invested, it won't hurt me if I am wrong.

So that means I will sell off the BTC holdings first in the bull market, gradually. I will definitely not hit the top. If I project the past into the future, it should start from Nov/Dec '24. ETH and the altcoins will follow step by step before all BTC is sold off.

And how do I find my exit prices? By taking the current low of the bear market that has just ended and multiplying it by a factor. This is based on the difference between the low of the penultimate bear market and the last bull market. The factor with a discount.

With a discount, as the BTC will rise less in percentage terms than in the last cycle. At least that's what I think. So I then set myself several levels. As a further guide, I use the Bitcoin rainbow chart, which shows me levels based on the logarithmic chart and price levels in the colors of the rainbow. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

If everything is bought, then that's good. If something remains, that's also OK. In any case, my sell levels will be so high that I will go home with a tax-free profit, as I stopped my crypto savings plans last December and accumulated during the past bear market.

So I have almost set my first sell level for the coins. I am still thinking about the factor level and the tranche size for the sell-off, which I will then set using limit orders. The whole process has to be automated, as emotions can destroy the entire strategy.

Why do I actually sell, even if I build up the stocks again later? Because I am convinced that, unlike the stock market, no value is created with cryptos. My profits will be the loss of others, there are no capital gains that can be distributed, as things are produced / created that are included in the economic output in between....

And then there are the videos by Balthasar Becker (see YouTube and X), who explains what could be the cause of the crypto cycle. Not the BTC halving (although I think this is a minor partial cause), but the "money printing orgy". So I believe that the coming interest rate cut will lift all boats. Until then, I'll be watching carefully, then the orders will be activated and cashed out step by step. I'm really looking forward to it.

The funds released will then go into an extra portfolio. I will use the dividends that the shares/ETFs will then generate for me from the crypto sales to accumulate crypto holdings again in the coming bear market. I then want to play this crypto cycle again later. At some point (>2030), BTC (and later ETH) will no longer have this extreme volatility, so I will stay with HODL.

I have also seen parts of this strategy on other YouTube channels. What do you think about it? Would you ride the wave or stick with the classic HODL?

$BCH (+0,08 %) Hello, do any of you already know what is going on, why the price has risen so explosively?

Mt.Gox starts with $BTC (-0,54 %)
payout

Price slide for Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash?

Probably completely unknown to many of you, one of the first major "hacks" of a Bitcoin exchange happened back in 2013 / 2014. It involved Mt.Gox, the largest platform for trading Bitcoin at the time. 850,000 Bitcoin were stolen, which corresponds to a current value of over 25 billion euros. Even though 200,000 Bitcoin were recovered a short time later, all customers lost their BTC and USD deposits. I also learned the painful lesson "not your keys, not your coins".

This was followed by proceedings in which now, after around 10 years, some creditors are being paid out. Why only some creditors? In recent years, creditors have been given the choice of waiting for the end of the proceedings (final payment) or being paid a slightly lower amount (early lump sum) "promptly".

According to an email from the Mt.Gox trustee, payment of the early lump sum package will begin this year and continue until 2024. As some of the remaining Bitcoin has already been liquidated in recent years, a total of around 150,000 Bitcoin will be paid out to creditors on a pro rata basis. It is unknown how many of these will fall to the early lump sum package. As a creditor, you also had the choice of having everything paid out in yen or partly in yen and partly in Bitcoin.

It is therefore to be expected that over the next few months, some Bitcoin will enter the market and be liquidated. Even if the number of Gox coins is large, not all creditors will sell their Bitcoin directly. As the payout will take place over several months and Bitcoin now has a relatively high trading volume, I do not expect any major slumps - at least not greater than usual for Bitcoin 😂

Incidentally, the last 10 years have also seen the spin-off of $BCH (+0,08 %) took place. In addition to $BTC (-0,54 %) the same amount of Bitcoin Cash accordingly. I could well imagine a significant price drop here.

For my part, I will use the $BCH (+0,08 %) in $BTC (-0,54 %) which $BTC (-0,54 %) continue to hodl and put the yen in the $VWRL (+0,46 %) the yen.