It's the fourth day of my "Bagholder Series," and we're leaving the +30% loss bracket behind. Western Union ($WU (+2,35 %)) leads the pack... 👻

👉🏻 Purchase value: 26,000 euros

👉🏻 Loss: 7,000 euros (-27%)

🌎 Brief Profile

Western Union is one of the world’s best-known providers of international money transfers and cross-border payment services. The company operates in more than 200 countries and connects customers to billions of bank accounts, millions of digital wallets, and hundreds of thousands of locations worldwide. In addition to traditional money transfers, Western Union is expanding its digital business and other financial services.

📊 Fundamental Data

At a share price of approximately $6.10, the figures are roughly as follows:

Market capitalization: ~$1.9 billion

P/E ratio (TTM): ~4.9x

Forward P/E ratio: ~4.3x

EPS (TTM): ~$1.24

Adjusted EPS 2025: $1.75

Dividend: $0.94 p.a.

Dividend yield: ~15.4%

📉 How is the business performing right now?

Operationally, things are currently ranging from mixed to challenging.

In the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $1.013 billion, about 1% below the prior-year figure. At the same time, adjusted EPS fell from $0.42 to $0.31. The pressure on margins became even more pronounced: The adjusted operating margin fell from 19% to 15%.

However, there is an interesting contrast within the group:

The traditional retail business is weakening, while the digital division is growing significantly.

Branded Digital posted a 6% adjusted revenue increase in Q2 and even boosted transaction volumes by 25%. The digital business now accounts for about 32% of CMT’s revenue and 43% of transactions.

This is precisely where the company is placing its bet on the future. The company is striving to evolve from a traditional provider of money transfers via branches and agents into a global digital financial services provider. This now even includes the area of stablecoins. In August, in partnership with Rain, the company launched the Stablecard, which allows customers to hold, transfer, and spend USDPT-backed dollar values via Visa. The service initially launched in 37 markets; Western Union aims to expand to more than 60 markets by the end of the year.

The planned acquisition of Intermex is also part of this strategy. The transaction is intended to strengthen the existing business and create synergies. However, the acquisition is taking significantly longer than originally expected.

The 2026 forecast was significantly reduced following a weak second quarter:

Revenue: $4.213–4.294 billion

Adjusted EPS: $1.25–1.35 (previously $1.75–1.85 EPS)

🧐 Why might the stock be a bargain?

The market now values the company as if its traditional business model were to shrink permanently and its digital transformation were failing.

At around $6, the stock trades for less than 5 times TTM earnings and only about 4.5 times the midpoint of the current EPS forecast. At the same time, Western Union continues to have a massive global network and a well-known brand.

If the traditional business stabilizes while digital transactions continue to grow at double-digit rates, earnings could stabilize. And then a P/E ratio of 4–5x would suddenly look quite low again.

Add to that the capital return. Western Union currently pays $0.235 per quarter, or $0.94 annually. At a stock price of around $6.10, this corresponds to a dividend yield of over 15%. If the dividend can indeed be maintained, you’ll receive an enormous recurring cash flow on top of that at this price.

Furthermore, the company has already repurchased 5.7 million shares for approximately $53.7 million in the first six months of 2026. As of the end of June, approximately $722 million of the existing buyback program remained available.

For me, this suggests the following possible combination:

Digital transactions ↑ + Costs ↓ + Intermex synergies + Stabilization of the core business + Debt reduction + Dividend

If even just part of this works out, the current valuation level could be quite low.

⚠️ Why is the stock still so cheap?

Western Union is undergoing structural change—and no one knows for sure whether it will succeed. The traditional business model is losing its appeal. Today, people can send money much more easily and cheaply via an app.

Revenue is declining, and the operating margin is under pressure. On top of that is the debt. As of June 30, Western Union had approximately $2.7 billion in gross debt. The interest burden is therefore not entirely irrelevant—especially when operating profit is under pressure at the same time and overall interest rates are rising significantly again.

The high dividend yield of 15% can also be interpreted as a warning sign at this time.

The market evidently assumes that the current dividend may not be sustainable at this level. Should management have to reduce the dividend again, the stock price could come under significant pressure once more.

The Intermex acquisition is also not a sure thing. It is intended to strengthen the business and generate synergies, but the regulatory delays show that the transaction is not yet a done deal.

🎯 My Bagholder Verdict -> 7/10 Bagholder Points 🤑

For me, Western Union is currently one of the most exciting—but also one of the riskier—value bagholders in my portfolio.

The crucial question, therefore, isn’t whether Western Union is profitable today—it clearly is. The real question is: Can the company successfully transition from a traditional money transfer provider to a digital global financial services provider?

If so, I believe the current valuation is significantly too low. If not, then the stock will become a classic value trap.

P.S.: Western Union has been in my portfolio for quite some time. Due to the high dividend (which is paid quarterly), my actual loss is probably closer to 20–15%.

With the temperatures in July, my portfolio finally started to pick up again, even if not quite as much as I’d hoped 😉. After the somewhat challenging past few months, this little breather comes at just the right time!

July Portfolio Overview:

👉🏻 July:

Starting value: 1,219,254 euros + 428 cash

End: 1,270,244 euros + 16.65 cash

Deposit: 3,200 euros

Profit: +47,378.65 euros (+3.87%)

One positive aspect of the portfolio’s performance is that the growth was actually driven almost exclusively by my other (non-gold-related) holdings, as my gold and silver holdings performed neutrally to slightly negatively this month.

PayPal ($PYPL (+0,27 %) ), Accenture ($ACN), and Xiaomi ($1810 (-2,39 %) ).

PayPal is one of the investments I’ve held for quite some time—currently with a cost basis of about 55 euros—and I’ve weathered a long rough patch with it. I took advantage of the price decline to consistently buy more shares, as I’m convinced of the company’s value. The takeover offer a few weeks ago at around 53 euros has at least brought PayPal back into the spotlight, and I’m glad that there are others who also see value in PayPal. At the same time, however, I’m also glad that PayPal rejected the offer. In my view, a sale shouldn’t even be considered for less than 75 euros per share—and preferably even more. The quarterly results have shown that PayPal is still growing and is fundamentally very strong. Thanks to the consistent share buybacks, more and more shares are staying with us shareholders… so I’m holding on to my shares!

Accenture and Xiaomi also contributed positively to the portfolio’s performance. However, I see this more as a technical rebound from the massive (excessive) sell-off than as a result of actual operational news—but of course, I’ll take it anyway!

At the end of the month, performance was boosted once again by Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+2,61 %) ) and Western Union ($WU (+2,35 %) ). While Novo was hit with a -10% intraday drop because a study on a potential new drug missed its targets, Western Union fell by over 20% as its quarterly results fell far short of expectations. Nevertheless, I’m holding on to both companies!

The portfolio’s performance will, however, continue to be determined primarily by the future performance of mining stocks. Given the uncertain situation surrounding Iran, I expect volatility to remain elevated going forward. At the company level, all mining stocks (K92 Mining, Equinox Gold, Santacruz Silver Mining) delivered very strong production figures. And the gold price also appears to have found a floor around $4,000 per ounce for now. But in the short term, what happens next will likely be determined by Trump’s whims 😉 ...

Let’s see how things play out! Tomorrow’s trading session looks like it’ll be another exciting one.... Deal, no deal, deal, no deal, deal.... 😅

➡️🆓: On my way toward $4 million in total assets, I’m now 41.5% of the way there.

Here’s to successful stock market trades! 😊

Interesting article on "fallen angels" with high dividends that could make a comeback.

Among other things, the article writes about:

$VRTS (-1,78 %) Virtus Investment Partners

$ALX (-0,45 %) Alexanders

$CAG (+0,76 %) ConAgra Brands

$WU (+2,35 %) Western Union

$PSEC Prospect Capital

Also Kraft Heinz $KHC (+2,83 %) Campbell's Soup $CPB (+3,15 %) and General Mills $GIS (+2,27 %) are also mentioned

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettowens/2026/05/17/the-most-hated-high-yields-on-wall-street/

After ending March as one of my worst months on the stock market, despite the recovery at the end of the month, April was able to make up some ground. Unfortunately, a large part of the recovery, which peaked in mid-April, was sold off again, but we are also satisfied with the small successes... 😉

But let's take a look at the figures!

👉🏻 March:

Start: 1,330,246 euros + 9,843 cash

End: 1,373,005 euros + 56.20 cash

Deposit: 4,100 euros

Profit: +28,872 Euro (+2.15%)

A large part of my portfolio is still tied up in K92 Mining and Equinox and is therefore dependent on the development of the gold price. The overall political situation remains volatile, which is why I expect a volatile recovery and or sideways movement in the near future - but I remain positive in the long term.

For me, the following factors continue to speak in favor of a gold investment:

(1) Increasing (geo)political uncertainties

(2) Deficit spending in large parts of the world (especially Europe / USA)

(3) Resulting inflationary tendencies

In April itself, there were only minor changes / profit-taking in my portfolio. I was able to take small profits on Western Union $WU (+2,35 %) Fuchs Petrolub $FPE (+0,26 %) and Ubisoft $UBI (-4,1 %) which I then reinvested directly (including in TUI $TUI1 (-0,25 %) and Xiaomi $1810 (-2,39 %) .

The dividend season is also slowly gaining momentum. In April, I was able to record a total of around 2,000 euros in dividends. In May, I'm already looking to double that with 4,000 euros and in June I'm even expecting 16,000 euros. At least that's something to look forward to... 😊

Otherwise, there is unfortunately some negative news for my Euro Sun Mining $ESM (+3,19 %) speculation. After rising by over 100% within a very short space of time on the back of positive news, we are now actually in the red. The reason for this is the political situation in Romania and the virtual disintegration of the government. It is currently unclear whether a corresponding national law will be passed, which will make it possible to apply for a permit. Nobody knows when and if it will be passed at all. Of course, the investment case stands or falls with this. But that is the price in this sector. Personally, I'm also factoring in a possible total loss (even if I hope it doesn't come to that...) 😅

➡️🆓: On my way towards 4 million total assets, the target achievement level is now 44.27%.

Here's to good stock market trading and enjoy the holiday! 😊

In terms of my portfolio performance/volatility, the last few weeks have probably been the craziest weeks since I started investing. Within a week, my portfolio lost over 100,000 euros in value during the precious metals crash only to gain back over 200,000 euros in value in the subsequent recovery by the end of February.

As a result, I reached a new milestone at the end of February. For the first time, the portfolio value exceeded the EUR 1.5 million mark. 😊

👉🏻 February:

Start: 1,368,240 euros + 100 cash

End: 1,559,4604 euros + 300 cash

Deposit: 5,400 euros

Profit: +186,020 euros (+13.59%)

The increase in value is mainly due to the good performance of my gold portfolio stocks (K92 Mining $KNT (-0,99 %) and Equinox Gold $EQX (-0,11 %) ). In the meantime, the gold price has slowly risen again and this is of course also reflected in the share prices. The two companies together now account for over 50% of my portfolio... This is actually an unreasonable ratio, but I am still convinced that there is still a lot of potential here. Both companies are in a great operational position, are debt-free and have even announced small dividend payments as a reward. 👍🏼

Otherwise, I continued to sell and buy here and there in February. I took profits on Puma $PUM (-0,13 %) , Vonovia $VNA (-0,44 %) , Henkel $HEN3 (+0,87 %) , K+S $KSC , Target $TGT (+0,07 %) and Western Union $WU (+2,35 %) while I increased my position in SAP $SAP (+0,69 %) , PayPal $PYPL (+0,27 %) and Novo-Nordisk $NOVO B (+2,61 %) further expanded.

The Iran war will certainly cause some turbulence on the stock market in the coming days. Experience shows that precious metals will benefit in times of uncertainty, but the oil price is also likely to receive a significant tailwind. With my high exposure to gold and my position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY (+0,38 %) I believe I am well positioned, at least in the short term. 👍🏼

➡️🆓: On my way towards 4 million total assets, the target achievement level is now 49.8%.

Here's to good stock market trading and see you in a few days! 😊

So... is a stock really cheap - or just a trap for investors?

There are many ways to recognize a value trap but most of the time it's about stocks that look look cheap visually -for example, with a low P/E ratio or a high dividend yield - but which fundamentally lose substanceif you take a closer look.

Such traps often emerge when an entire industry is in in upheaval is in upheaval:

• Newspapers before the internet
• video stores before Netflix
• or cabs - before Uber came along

Today we take a look at 2 companies that could fit exactly into this category.

🎧 1. SiriusXM $SIRI (-0,34 %)

Since the big merger in 2008 between Sirius and XM, the company has been the absolute top dog in its field.

Through close partnerships with car manufacturers SiriusXM is now pre-installed in almost every new car in the USA.

This was a smart move - and the company was able to increase its turnover by a whopping 13 % per year per year between 2008 and 2022.

But... times are changing.

Because with Spotify, Apple Music and the like, more and more people prefer to listen on demand -

cheaper, more flexible and with a better selection.

The problem:

More and more users are canceling their satellite subscriptions, and even the remaining customers are bringing in less revenue.

The average revenue per user is falling - despite the seemingly attractive valuation:

an EV/FCF of 16.2 sounds good on paper, but the trend is clearly pointing downwards.

In short:

SiriusXM is fighting against an entire industry that has long since arrived in the streaming age.

And that's exactly what makes it dangerous - a classic value trap in slow motion.

💸 2. western union $WU (+2,35 %)

Let's move on to Western Union - a share with a really fat dividend yield dividend yield of over 11 %.

Sounds tempting at first, doesn't it?

But just because it looks like a lot of cash doesn't mean that the business is healthy.

Western Union has been over 100 years one of the largest providers of money transfers worldwide - but it is precisely this model that is currently under massive pressure.

Because the world has changed:

More and more people are sending their money digitally,

instead of physically via Western Union branches.

New players such as Remitly, Wise or Revolut are faster, cheaper - and much more convenient.

And that is precisely why more and more customers are deciding against Western Union.

Of course, at first glance the share looks favorably valued but the truth is:

The entire business model is in the midst of change.

And as long as Western Union doesn't really catch up here, this is likely to continue to weigh heavily put pressure on profits in the future.

💬 Conclusion:

Just because a share looks cheapdoes not mean that it is cheap is cheap.

Because if the business model is crumbling, even a low P/E ratio won't help.

So always check:

Is the company undervalued - or outdated?

Because: The boundary between value play and value trap is often only a fine line.

My Youtube channel for more stock analysis: www.youtube.com/@Verstehdieaktie

Western Union is probably one of the best examples in my portfolio. Dividends are being paid out again today... fortunately Western Union does this on a quarterly basis. 💵

-> Dividend yield: approx. 11%

-> P/E ratio: approx. 5.5

When I joined the company, the fundamentals were only marginally "worse". Almost too good to be true. High dividend yield and high price potential ... that was my thought at the time. 📈

This bet didn't work out. Today, the dividend yield is even higher and my share price has fallen by around 25% (although fortunately this is somewhat offset by the dividend received).

Nevertheless, I have learned to look twice at high dividend yields. There is nothing free in the market. As far as Western Union is concerned, I still can't figure out what justifies this fall in the share price. I therefore continue to hold the share and hope for a bottom soon.

You don't just have winners $WU (+2,35 %) ... 😉