The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.

This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.

I have also added additional sources and charts.

__________

🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population

The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]

Increase in the older population:

• The proportion of people aged 60 and over is rising from 8% (1950) to 21.5% (2050).
• In 2050, 2.1 billion people will belong to the over-60 age group.

Source: [2]

Regional differences:

Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.

Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.

Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]

While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]

Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]

In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.

🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions

Facts:

• In the USA, people over the age of 65 already account for 36% of healthcare expenditure, although they only make up 18% of the population. Age-related diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and neurological disorders are driving up costs. [1]
• Alzheimer's cases are even expected to double worldwide by 2050.

Possible profiteers:

Medical technology

• Medtronic ($MDT (-0,12 %) ) - (cardiac pacemakers, diabetes technology)
• Stryker ($SYK (+0,08 %) ) - (orthopaedic implants, surgical devices)
• Siemens Healthineers ($SHL (+0,3 %) ) - (imaging, diagnostics)

Pharmaceuticals

• Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (+6,78 %) ) - (Diabetes & Obesity)
• Eli Lilly ($LLY (+0,91 %) ) - (Alzheimer's, Diabetes)
• Roche ($ROG (+0,02 %) ) - (Oncology, Diagnostics)

🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide

Facts:

The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]

In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]

In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]

Potential beneficiaries:

Care providers

• Brookdale Senior Living ($BKD (+4,42 %) ) - (senior living, care facilities)

Homecare

• ResMed ($RMD (+0,76 %) ) - (sleep apnea, ventilators)
• Fresenius Medical Care ($FME (-0,68 %) ) - (dialysis, home therapy)
• Coloplast ($COLO B (+0,42 %) ) - (ostomy care, incontinence products)

Telemedicine

• Teladoc Health ($TDOC (+3,37 %) ) - (virtual doctor visits, digital health solutions)
• Hims & Hers ($HIMS (+5 %) ) - (telemedicine & e-health)

Anti-Aging

• L'Oréal ($OR (+0,01 %) ) - (skin care, cosmetics)
• Estee Lauder ($EL (-1,06 %) ) - (luxury cosmetics, skin rejuvenation)
• Revance Therapeutics ($RVNC ) - (Botox alternative, wrinkle treatment)

🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"

The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]

It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.

The trends are also similar internationally:

• The wealth of older people is 3x that of millennials.
• Over-60s control more than 50% of consumer spending in many developed countries.
• The global silver economy could reach a volume of USD 15 trillion by 2030 (Oxford Economics).

This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.

Possible beneficiaries:

Luxury

• LVMH ($MC (+2,29 %) ) - (fashion, jewelry, wine & spirits)
• Hermès ($RMS (+1,89 %) ) - (Exclusive Fashion & Accessories)
• Richemont ($CFR (+1,45 %) ) - (Swiss luxury watches & jewelry)

Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])

• Royal Caribbean ($RCL (+0,05 %) ) - (Cruises for seniors & families)
• Carnival ($CCL (+0,65 %) ) - (mass market cruises)
• Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH (-0,47 %) ) - (premium cruises)

Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])

• Thor Industries ($THO (+0,6 %) ) - (motorhomes, campers)
• Winnebago ($WGO (+0,35 %) ) - (motorhomes & caravans)
• Harley-Davidson ($HOG (-0,3 %) ) - (motorcycles and entry-level electric motorcycles)

🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage

Facts:

The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]

Profiteers:

• ABB ($ABBNY (+0,84 %) ) - (industrial robotics, automation)
• Fanuc ($6954 (+1,86 %) ) - (robotics, factory automation)
• Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG (+0,64 %) ) - (robot-assisted surgery)
• Siemens ($SIE (+1,35 %) )- (automation & also medical technology)

🧠 Conclusion:

Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.

I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.

Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?

Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?

Thanks for reading!

_________

Sources:

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages

[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/

[3] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1343516/umfrage/entwicklung-der-fertilitaetsrate-in-afrika/

[4]

https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/

Earnings next week 🗓️

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Here is a summary of important economic events for the coming week:

Monday, September 25

• Thor Industries Inc.. ($THO (+0,6 %) ) publishes quarterly reports.

• -Publication of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August.

• Publication of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for September.

Tuesday, September 26

• Quarterly reports From Costco Wholesale Corp.. ($COST (+0,02 %) ), Cintas Corp. ($CTAS (-0,4 %) ), Ferguson PLC ($FERG ) and Neogen Corp. ($NEOG (+3,9 %) )

• Publication of the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for July.

• Publication of the FHFA House Price Index for July.

• Publication of the Sales figures for new homes in August.

• Publication of the CB Consumer Confidence Index for September.

• Publication of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September.

• Publication of the Dallas Fed Services Index for September.

Wednesday, September 27

• Quarterly reports From Micron Technology Inc.. ($MU (+5,08 %) ), Paychex Inc. ($PAYX (+0,24 %) ), Jefferies Financial Group ($JEF (+4,62 %) ), Concentrix Corp. ($CNXC (+1,7 %) ) and H.B. Fuller Company ($FUL (+0,97 %) ).

Thursday, September 28

• Quarterly Reports From Accenture PLC ($ACN (-0,34 %) ), Nike ($NKE (-0,11 %) ), Jabil Inc. ($JBL (+2,21 %) ), CarMax Inc .. ($KMX (+0,89 %) ), Vail Resorts Inc. ($MTN (-2,46 %) ) and BlackBerry Ltd.. ($BB (+3,63 %) ).

• Publication of the final GDP for the second quarter of 2023.

• Publication of the final data on real consumer spending in the second quarter of 2023.

• Publication of the sales figures for outstanding homes in August.

• Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a Town Hall Event.

Friday, September 29

• Carnival Corporation ($CCL (+0,66 %) ) published Quarterly Reports.

• Publication of consumer income and expenditure data in August.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗸𝘀𝘄𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗸 / 𝗛𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗙𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵 𝘀𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗮𝗰𝗵 / 𝟮𝟬𝟬 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝗯𝗲𝗶 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

As of today, among others, Bentley Systems Inc ($BSY (+1,57 %)), Brown Forman ($BF.B (+1,61 %)) and Halliburton Company ($HAL (+1,6 %)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, among others, CAMPELL SOUP ($CPB (+1,65 %)), Thor Industries ($THO (+0,6 %)) and United Natural Foods ($UNFI (+0,45 %)) present their quarterly figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

Volkswagen ($VOWA (-1,02 %)) - Yesterday, the Volkswagen share was able to record a massive increase of up to 7% in the meantime. The reason for this is the progressing planning of an IPO of the sports car subsidiary Porsche. VW would like to use the proceeds of the IPO to drive forward the digitalization and transformation towards electric mobility of the group. However, a final decision has not yet been made.

HelloFresh ($HFG (+1,35 %)) - The company HelloFresh was very disappointing in its EBITDA forecast yesterday. Analysts' estimates averaged 674 million euros. HelloFresh has now announced that they only see EBITDA at 500 to 580 million euros for 2022. This can mainly be attributed to the fact that HelloFresh wants to invest even more aggressively in growth.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Cybercriminals captured $200 million worth of cryptocurrencies on the Bitmart crypto exchange. Company CEO Xia commented, "This security breach was mainly caused by a stolen private key that compromised two of our hot wallets. Other assets with Bitmart are secure and unharmed."

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𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗪𝗲𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝟮.𝟬 / 𝗠𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗺 "𝗚𝗿𝗲𝘆𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱" 𝗮𝘂𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗺 𝗪𝗲𝗴 𝘇𝘂𝗺 𝗜𝗣𝗢 / 𝗪𝗼𝗹𝗸𝗶𝗴 𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗵𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝗳 𝗚𝗲𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝘇𝘂𝘄𝗮𝗰𝗵𝘀

𝗜𝗣𝗢𝘀 🔔

WeWork - After its failed first attempt in 2019, office broker WeWork is trying again with a stock exchange listing. This time, however, not by means of an IPO, but via a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) merger. The path to the stock exchange is to be paved by a merger with SPAC BowX Acquisition Corp. ($BOWXU) will pave the way. In 2019, the valuation of the former startup was $47 billion. But now it is aiming for a valuation of nine billion U.S. dollars and is looking to raise one billion U.S. dollars in fresh money from existing and new investors. It remains to be seen whether the projected business figures can be met or are too optimistic.

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

Starting today, Owens Corning Inc. ($O5Q (+0,5 %)), Procter & Gamble ($PRG (-1,06 %)), Pentair plc ($PNT (+2,23 %)), Thor Industries Inc. ($TIV (+0,6 %)) and Williams-Sonoma Inc. ($WM1 (+0,42 %)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, AT&T ($SOBA (-0,3 %)), American Airlines ($A1G (+0,59 %)), Alaska Air Group ($ALK (-1,05 %)), Barclays ($BCY (+0,74 %)), China Unicom ($XCI), Chipotle Mexican Grill ($C9F (+0,25 %)), Danaher ($DAP (+1,49 %)), Intel ($INL (+25,17 %)), SAP ($SAP (+3,07 %)), Schindler ($SHRQ (+0,19 %)), Union Pacific ($UNP (+0,98 %)) and Volvo ($VOL1 (+0 %)) presented their figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

FlixBus - For $172 million, Munich-based FlixBus buys the legendary "Greyhound" buses in the U.S. from British company FirstGroup ($FGR (-1,46 %)). These acquisitions are intended to drive a key part of FlixMobility's growth strategy and expand its global presence as a result. This purchase will make the German mobility startup the market leader in the U.S. and it could also be another step towards an IPO.

SAP ($SAP (+3,07 %)) - SAP's quarterly revenue is boosted by double-digit growth in the cloud. But the competition of the core product S/4 Hana does not sleep. Europe's largest software company can count on many new customers through its enterprise transformation in the cloud. "Demand is enormous, which has led to a significant acceleration in cloud growth," says Group CEO Christian Klein. However, the company faces major challenges due to high competitive pressure.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

Facebook ($FB2A (+1,52 %)) - Facebook has announced a pilot project by its subsidiary Novi (formerly Calibra) in the U.S. and Guatemala. The company is working on a crypto wallet on which the planned stablecoin Diem (formerly Libra), will be stored and made mailable. However, the pilot project will not use Diem, but PAX US dollars (USDP). This is a stablecoin backed by the real US dollar. This is to be securely stored on Coinbase's platform in cooperation with Coinbase ($1QZ (+3,41 %)) on their platform. The aim of the project is to make it easier for people to send money (in the form of cryptocurrencies) securely and without financial intermediaries. By using a stablecoin, the users of the wallet should be protected from possible price fluctuations. Facebook is receiving strong criticism from five high-ranking Democratic senators (including former presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren) for this plan. These make it clear that the corporation should not be trusted when it comes to introducing a digital currency. They are calling for an immediate halt to Project Novi.

Market leader in mobile homes passed to the Corona