Wayfair ($W) (-8,73 %) was a clear winner in e-commerce during the pandemic, but experienced a drastic crash afterwards. Now that the market has stabilized, investors are asking themselves: Is Wayfair ripe for a comeback or will the company remain under pressure?

Overview: What does Wayfair do?

Wayfair is one of the world's largest online retailers for furniture and home accessories. The company operates an asset-light model, which means that it does not produce its own furniture, but brokers products via a broad network of manufacturers and suppliers.

✅ Wayfair.com: Main platform for online furniture retail in the USA, Canada and Europe.

✅ Wayfair Professional: B2B platform for companies and interior designers.

✅ Perigold, AllModern, Birch Lane and Joss & Main: Other brands covering different design styles.

Wayfair relies heavily on data analysis and AIto understand buying behavior and optimize the supply chain.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Amazon ($AMZN) (-2,39 %) & Walmart ($WMT) (-2,31 %) - Huge competition in online retail, which also offer furniture.

🔸 IKEA - The stationary furniture giant that is constantly expanding its online presence.

🔸 Home Depot ($HD) (-2,25 %) & Lowe's ($LOW) (-2,87 %) - Important competitors in the Home & Living segment.

🔸 Etsy ($ETSY) (-0,39 %) & smaller specialty retailers - Competition from individual furniture and decoration suppliers.

Wayfair has the advantage of being a pure online specialist specialist for furniture, but has to hold its own against financially strong rivals.

Opportunities: Why could Wayfair make a comeback?

✅ Efficiency gains: Wayfair has worked hard on its cost structure and reduced staff in recent quarters.

✅ Stabilization of demand: After the extreme boom in 2020-2021 and the decline in 2022-2023, the market could now normalize.

✅ Improved consumer climate: Falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts could boost purchasing power.

✅ Improved margins: The company has recently achieved higher gross margins, which indicates better cost control.

✅ Expansion of B2B business: Wayfair Professional continues to grow and could be a stable revenue generator in the long term.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on Wayfair? ⚠️

⚠️ High competitive pressure: Amazon, IKEA and Walmart are strong opponents with better supply chains.

⚠️ Dependence on macro factors: High interest rates and weak consumer sentiment could delay the recovery.

⚠️ Profitability remains fragile: Wayfair has made losses in the past and needs to show it can sustain profits.

⚠️ Logistics and storage costs: Despite efficiency gains, shipping bulky furniture remains a challenge.

⚠️ Customer loyalty: Unlike Apple or Tesla, customers have little loyalty to Wayfair - many simply compare prices with the competition.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

Wayfair could be one of the most exciting turnaround candidates in 2025. The company has worked hard on its cost structure and could benefit from a recovery in consumer sentiment. However, competition remains intense and it is not yet certain whether Wayfair will become sustainably profitable.

What do you think? Does Wayfair have the potential for a strong recovery or will the share remain a shaky candidate? 🚀

The first month of the new year is already over. While the first half of January was characterized by Trump euphoria and rising markets, the second half was much more volatile, particularly due to DeepSeek and its impact on the AI sector.

For me personally, the savings rate was unfortunately somewhat lower due to the issue of house building, as already mentioned at the end of 2024. Currently (and probably also for the coming months) it will therefore only be around €500-700.

I am aware that this is of course still a very high savings rate, but it is significantly lower than the ~€2,000 of recent years.

Also very exciting: In November, I withdrew over €20,000 from my custody account to raise the equity for the bank. Just 2 months later, my custody account is back to the same value of almost €300,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

In total, January was +3,9%. This corresponds to price gains of ~11.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.5% and the S&P500 +2.7%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows an unusual picture in January:

The biggest loser by far is NVIDIA! With price losses of almost €3,000, the emergence of DeepSeek caused substantial losses in the portfolio.

The other losers, on the other hand, are only worth a side note. After NVIDIA, Apple has already lost significantly less with ~€400 losses. The remaining loser stocks then only lost around €200.

On the winners' side at the top with a total of almost €2,000 in price gains is the Meta share. Followed by Bitcoin with €1,500 price gains and 2 other tech stocks: Alphabet with €1,200 and Crowdstrike with €1,000. 5th place goes to Starbucks, also with gains of almost €1,000.

The performance-neutral movements were clearly negative in January, as some of the cash was used to buy the property. The property is of course also an asset, but I would rather focus on liquid assets here.

The performance-neutral movements in relation to my portfolio were ~€600

Dividend:

• The dividends in January were 30% above the previous year at ~€166
• TSMC is in the lead with over 30€ (gross) dividend every 3 months.

Buys & Sells:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~600€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsMicrosoft $MSFT (-1,57 %) Stryker $SYK (-0,56 %) Apple $AAPL (+0,26 %) Home Depot $HD (-2,25 %) Starbucks $SBUX (-0,91 %) Texas Instruments $TXN (-0,26 %) Nike $NKE (-0,48 %) Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+5,32 %) Lockheed Martin $LMT (+2,16 %) LVMH $MC (+0,4 %)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales -

YouTube:

In mid-January, I uploaded my first video to YouTube. I am particularly proud of a video explaining my dividend strategy. The video has already reached almost 200 views and a playback time of ~10 hours!

Even though I'm still not really sure what exactly I want to do on YouTube, I really enjoy editing videos and talking about shares.

That's why I created my January portfolio update as a video for the first time. Of course I would love to hear your feedback!

https://youtu.be/SD8ZKVWbUGA

Target 2025

Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.

A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added

A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year.

Nevertheless, I would formulate the following goal for this year:

Current portfolio balance is €300,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. With an average market return of ~7%, that would be price gains of ~€21,000.

This would put my portfolio at €330,000 to €340,000 at the end of 2025.

-> I would therefore aim for a portfolio value of well over €300,000, so that a 2% fluctuation does not lead directly back below €300k.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

$UBER (-2,45 %)
$HD (-2,25 %)

Uber Eats and The Home Depot $HD (-2,25 %) are joining forces to simplify home improvement tasks. Starting January 22, customers will be able to order tools, building materials, garden supplies and more from over 2,000 Home Depot locations directly through the Uber Eats app.

Deliveries can be scheduled or ordered on-demand, which is convenient for contractors and DIYers alike. 🚀

(Delayed) portfolio review October 2024 - A month with 5 share sales and one ETF sale

Even though October was just over two weeks ago, it feels like a different time. Germany still had an (unspeakable) traffic light government, in America the race for the White House was still open and a phone call between Scholz and Putin was unthinkable.

And even though November has been much more exciting on the stock market than October so far, October was a month of major changes from a personal perspective.

Apart from stock market investments, we are slowly starting to think about building a house. As a result, for the first time in a long time I made several sales in my portfolio and therefore also cleared out a little.

Previously this year, there were only 2 sales in my portfolio: at NVIDIA I took my stake out in February and since then have only let the profits run. In addition, in March I had Encavis after the takeover bid.

There were a total of 6 sales in October. For just under €7,000 I sold my China ETF which has recovered well over the last few months.

On the equity side, I have now sold most of the Corona Hype stocks and Match, Atlassian, Shopify and Block have been sold. In addition, I have also Pfizer sold. That was another €8,000, leaving only Sea from the Corona hype times, where I will remain invested for the time being, as it covers a completely different region geographically with Southeast Asia.

My savings quota will therefore be significantly reduced for the time being due to the upcoming house building project. From just under €1,500 to €2,000, it will only be €500-600 per month for the time being

Monthly view:

In total, October was +1,7%. This corresponds to price gains of ~5.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +0.9% and the S&P500 +1.5%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is part of the usual picture:

On the winning side is, as so often NVIDIA is at the top with almost €3,000 in share price gains. It is followed by TSMC, Bitcoin, Alphabet and Palo Alto Networks with gains of €900-1,000 each.

On the loser side above all ASML made its contribution with price losses of almost €1,400. This was followed by Bechtle, Thermo Fisher, LVMH and Nike a broader mix of stocks that have not necessarily performed well recently. Nevertheless, all 5 loser stocks are still part of my savings plans.

The performance-neutral movements in October were just under €4,600. The sales proceeds are all still in cash accounts at the moment, so they have not yet flowed out of the assets. There will be a larger dip here at some point in the future.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +27,5% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 23.7%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~331.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€79,000 in the current year 2023. ~53.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.000€ from dividends / interest and ~22.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in October were 32% above the previous year at ~€150
• TSMC is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €30 every 3 months. TSMC has already raised the dividend for next year by 30% again
• In the current year, the dividends after 10 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.350€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in October for approx. 1.500€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsNovo Nordisk $NOVO B (+5,32 %) LVMH $MC (+0,4 %) Apple $AAPL (+0,26 %) Home Depot $HD (-2,25 %) Microsoft $MSFT (-1,57 %) Nike $NKE (-0,48 %) Starbucks $SBUX (-0,91 %) Stryker $SYK (-0,56 %) Texas Instruments $TXN (-0,26 %)
• 
  GrowthCrowdstrike $CRWD (-6,19 %) MercadoLibre $MELI (-4,31 %)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (-0,98 %) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0,1 %) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (-0,99 %)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (+0,74 %) and Ethereum $ETH (+1,72 %)
• 
  Sales as mentioned, there were some in October with Match $MTCH (-2,85 %) Pfizer $PFE (+1,91 %) Block $SQ (-12,06 %) Shopify $SHOP (-5,86 %) Atlassian $TEAM Invesco MSCI China All-shares $MCHS (+2,18 %)

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€331,000 at the end of October.

As of mid-November and thanks to the Trump rally, my portfolio is currently approaching €350,000 and was even slightly above this level a few days ago. However, with a larger cash portion that will sooner or later flow into financing as equity.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Earnings next week (11.11 - 15.11)

$SHOP (-5,86 %)

$SOUN

$MARA (-6,47 %)

$BABA (+5,86 %)

$CAVA

$SPOT (-3,66 %)

$AMAT (-1,89 %)

$DIS (-1,33 %)

$PLUG (-4,22 %)

$HD (-2,25 %)

$MNDY (-2,03 %)

$OXY (-2,74 %)

$RKLB (-6,21 %)

$BSEM

$ZETA (-7,04 %)

$SE (-2,53 %)

$RKT

$CSCO (-0,55 %)

$ASTS (-8,64 %)

$WULF (-8,41 %)

$ONON

$OKLO

$HUT (-7,02 %)

$NVAX (+1,72 %)

$HTZ (-6,09 %)

$LUNR

$CART

$TALN

$BITF (-2,27 %)

$GRAB (+1,66 %)

$JD (+3,44 %)

$LAZR

$ALT (-4,21 %)

$CRON (+1,62 %)

$ICL

$NICE

$CYBR (-4,19 %)

$BXSL (-0,3 %)

$DESP (-0,27 %)

$ARMK (-2,28 %)

$TSN (+3,39 %)

$RUM

$PGY

$TGI

$AAP (-2,38 %)

$AXSM (+7,32 %)

$AZN (+0,35 %)

$BILI (+2,84 %)

$LINC (+0 %)

$LQDA (-1,91 %)

Ran a little too hot. Amount will flow into an ETF.

Currently want to increase my ETF share... Currently only 25%

Given the continued stability of real estate prices and expected demand driven by factors such as urbanization and immigration (at least in the US), I see several sectors and companies benefiting from this trend:

REITs, $DHI (-1,49 %) , $LEN (-1,45 %) , $HD (-2,25 %) , $LOW (-2,87 %) , $CAT (-2,26 %)

However, there has already been a good boost in the current YTD.

• Do you think there is still potential here?

• Or is everything else already priced in?

Have a nice Sunday everyone!

"Dividends in the morning dispel sorrow and worries"

Homer Simpson September 13, 2024