$CMG (-3,9 %) Why is nobody talking about this share? Currently a good price to get in.

Probably not a hype stock like Novo Nordisk, Nu Holdings, Hims and Herms, Droneshield etc.

New acquisitions: $FTNT (+1,39 %)
$TTD (-0,37 %)
$CMG (-3,9 %)
$AJG (-0,53 %)
$BRK.B (-1,71 %)
$ZTS (-1,53 %)

Please let me know what you think of my compilation.

$CMG (-3,9 %) Chipotle Mexican Grill posted impressive results in the second quarter of 2025, far exceeding expectations. Sales increased 18.2% year over year to $2.97 billion, helped by strong customer demand and successful promotions such as Chicken Al Pastor. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.34, up 36% from last year. Comparable sales growth of 11.1% was also notable, mainly due to an 8.7% increase in transactions. Chipotle opened 52 new restaurants, 46 of which included Chipotlane, and saw operating margin increase to 28.9%. Digital sales accounted for 35.3% of total sales.

Expected sales: $2.94 billion - Outcome: $2.97 billion

Expected EPS: $0.32 - Outcome: $0.34

Expected comparable sales: +9.8% - Outcome: +11.1%

$CMG (-3,9 %)

Chipotle Mexican Grill published its figures for the second quarter of 2025 today - and they are impressive: Earnings of USD 0.33 per share were reported. This may seem low at first glance, but context is key here: the stock is pricing in strong growth and premium positioning, and analysts are convinced. BMO Capital Markets even expects the share price to rise by over 20 % in the next 12 months.

What makes Chipotle so special?

The US company, which focuses on Mexican fast-casual food (burritos, bowls, tacos), scores with a clear focus on quality, sustainability and digitalization. The app and online business are running like clockwork, and with over 3,500 locations (mainly in the USA), Chipotle continues to grow profitably. Particularly strong: the "Chipotlane" drive-thru concept for mobile orders.

Also exciting in the long term:

✅ No franchise - all stores are company-owned

✅ High margins thanks to efficient cost management

✅ Growth in new markets (Canada, UK, possibly soon Germany?)

✅ Strong pricing power despite inflation

One small drawback: Chipotle does not pay a dividend. However, if you are looking for fast-growing quality stocks with a moat and pricing power, this is an interesting long-term investment.

Do you have Chipotle on your radar or perhaps even in your portfolio?

I'm even considering adding to my position, even though I've been in the red the whole time 😜

Reading time: approx. 5 min

In connection with shares, the term "growth shares" is often used. growth shares are often mentioned. These are said to be particularly fast-growing and deserve a higher valuation than so-called value shares or no-growth shares.

However, the question is what is a growth share is not so easy to answer. How strong must the growth be for a share to be considered a growth share? What growth are we even looking at? Which growth is the most important? What can we conclude about the company if it is growing in the various key figures? An overview.

Revenue Growth

When so-called high growth stocks we are often talking about companies that have been able to increase their sales very strongly. Revenue growth is probably the most easily tangible form of growth: more was sold, the number of customers increased, the products/services could be sold at a higher price and/or the market share increased.

Sales growth is important for a company because it often shows that the company's products/services have sold better. However, pure sales growth is only one type of growth. There are many more types of growth and the meanings of the different types of growth can say a lot about the underlying company.

Gross Profit Growth

The gross profit is the share of a company's turnover that remains after we have deducted the direct production costs (cost of goods sold) that are necessary to create the product. If we sell a product for €100 and it cost €20 to manufacture the product, the gross profit is €80.

If a company grows in turnover, the gross profit should ideally increase in step. It becomes particularly interesting when gross profit grows even faster than turnover. This is often an indicator that the company has high pricing power or that the business model is very efficient. is very efficient. In this case, it is also often referred to as operating leverage is often used. This occurs, for example, when production facilities are better utilized, production can be made more efficient or, in the case of software services, the customer base has exceeded a certain threshold so that hardly any new costs are incurred for the additional delivery of the software.

Operating profit growth

If the costs for research and development (R&D) research and development (R&D), depreciation and amortization as well as the costs for sales, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) we arrive at the so-called operating profit. Operating profit is a measure of a company's operational strength, as it includes all the costs required to sell a product or provide a service.

If operating profit grows faster than gross profit, this is often a sign of increasing efficiency in sales, administration, marketing and research work. For example, more products could be sold without increasing marketing costs to the same extent.

Net income growth

If we deduct so-called non-operating costs such as taxes or interest expenses from the operating profit, we obtain the net income.

If net income increases more than operating profit, this is a sign of increased efficiency in taxes and/or falling financing costs. A large gap between operating profit and net income, on the other hand, could indicate increasing debt or a deterioration in taxation.

Free cash flow growth

The free cash flow can be calculated from net income, which takes into account non-cash items such as depreciation and amortization or stock compensation and excludes capital expenditure (CapEx) are deducted. It is therefore an indicator of the free cash and cash equivalents that are actually available to a company after deducting investment expenditure. Ultimately, it is the amount of free cash and cash equivalents available to a company's shareholders from operating activities after deducting capital expenditure.

If free cash flow rises more strongly than net income, this is an indicator of better cash conversion. cash conversioni.e. the company is better able to convert "book profits" into cash available to shareholders.

If a company buys back its own shares in addition to increasing free cash flow, the free cash flow per share will increase more than the free cash flow. Each individual shareholder then benefits disproportionately to the actual free cash flow growth of the company.

At the same time, FCF/share is historically one of the best indicators of a share's long-term price performance, as FCF/share is the proportion per share of the company's annual free cash surplus. The company's management can then use this for investments, dividends, share buybacks or debt repayments.

EXAMPLE: Let's look at an example of a company that has managed to grow in all of the growth metrics presented: Chipotle Mexican Grill
$CMG (-3,9 %). In the period from 2015 to today, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was as follows:

Revenue Growth: 10.8%

Gross profit growth: 12.7%

Operating profit growth: 11.0%

Net income growth: 13.9%

Free cash flow growth: 20.1%

FCF per share growth: 20.9%

Share price growth: 23.3%

Gross profit has therefore grown even faster than sales. We remember: this is often a sign of increasing efficiency in production or may involve a certain degree of pricing power. However, Chipotle was not entirely successful in converting the rising gross profit into rising operating profit. However, it still grew faster than sales, which is a sign of good operating leverage. operating leverage could be an indication of good operating leverage. However, net income grew more strongly than sales, gross profit and operating profit. Free cash flow increased significantly more than net income. Chipotle therefore succeeded disproportionately well in converting book profits into real cash and cash equivalents. Through share buybacks, the FCF per share increased even more than the actual free cash flow. An overview of Chipotle's key financial figures can be found in the following chart:

The share price performance in the same period is 23.3% CAGR is roughly on a par with the growth in FCF/share, which again underlines the fact that the growth in the share price is dominated by the growth in FCF/share in the long term.

Conclusion

We have seen that it is not the growth exists. Sales growth is one aspect of a healthy and growing company. However, we often underestimate the significance of other growth metrics. We can see from the Chipotle example that simply looking at sales growth is not a complete view of a company's growth story. There are many operational levers with which the management of a company can ensure the most important growth for us in the long term - growth in the share price. growth in the share price.

What are your favorite growth metrics and why?

Stay tuned,

Yours Nico Uhlig

McDonald's $MCD (-1,02 %) is one of my top 3 positions in the portfolio and not without reason:

The Group has stood for stability, strong dividends and global brand power for decades.

But even McDonald's is not immune to inflation, consumer restraint and macroeconomic headwinds.

In the following article, I categorize the Q1 figures based on the official earnings release [1] and supplementary statements from the earnings call/webcast [2].

In addition to the pure figures, it's also about loyalty programs, margin development, new menu strategies and my personal conclusion on the share.

Have fun!

_______________

McDonald's is starting the new year with a decline in sales and profits, with business weakening in the USA in particular. Nevertheless, the company is showing global resilience, particularly through its licensed markets and the rapidly growing loyalty program.

📊 ESTIMATES VS. REPORTED

*(According to the earnings report, operating profit (EBIT) amounted to $2.65 billion; the third-party provider Quartr states a slightly different figure of $2.71 billion, which may be due to rounding or other valuation measures).

📊 Results Q1 2025

• Turnover$5.96 billion (previous year: $6.17 billion) -> decline of 3%

• Operating profit (EBIT): $2.65 billion (previous year: $2.74 billion) -> decrease of 3%

• Earnings per share (EPS):

• GAAP (incl. special effects): $2.60 (previous year: $2.66) → -2%
• Non-GAAP (adjusted): $2.67 (previous year: $2.70) → -1 %

What is GAAP vs. non-GAAP?

• GAAP: official accounting in accordance with US accounting rules
• Non-GAAP: adjusted figures, e.g. without special effects such as restructuring costs, often better suited to evaluate the "operating business"

💰 Margin & result

"Our adjusted operating margin was around 45.5%, despite declining sales."

• Ian Borden, CFO

• Operating margin down slightly (vs. 46.3% in FY 2024), but remains very robust given the environment
• Restaurant margins above $3.3 billion in Q1
• Declines in company-operated margins, especially in Europe (see brief digression)

EXCURSUS: Company-operated margin: (operating margin from company-owned restaurants)

...refers to the profit margin that McDonald's generates from the restaurants it operates itself, as opposed to franchise or licensed operations.

McDonald's operates two types of restaurants worldwide:

1 . Franchise restaurants (around 95%)

• Operated by independent entrepreneurs.
• McDonald's earns from this through franchise fees, rent and revenue sharing.

2 . Company-operated restaurants (approx. 5 %)

• Belong directly to McDonald's
• Sales and costs run entirely through the consolidated balance sheet.

Why is this margin important?

• It shows how profitable McDonald's own stores are.
• If, for example, costs for staff, food or energy rise, this puts pressure on this margin.
• In the earnings call, it was emphasized that company-operated margins were under pressure in Q1, particularly in Europe:

• cost inflation
• weaker demand
• unfavorable exchange rates

🌍 Global comparative figures (Comparable Sales):

• These are sales from existing restaurants that have been open for at least 13 months. They show organic growth without the effect of new locations.

• Worldwide: -1.0 %
• USA: -3.6 %

• International Operated Markets (IOM): -1.0 %
• International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL): +3.5 %

What are IOM and IDL markets?

• IOM: Countries and regions in which McDonalds itself is more heavily involved (e.g. Germany, UK, France)

• IDL: Countries in which McDonald's does not operate its restaurants itself, but licenses them to local franchise partners. These partners pay fees to McDonald's but run the business independently. Examples: Japan, Middle East, parts of Asia and Africa.

📉 Why did things go worse in the USA?

The decline in sales in the USA (-3.6 % comparable sales) was mainly due to:

• Fewer guests (falling visitor numbers)
• Consumer restraint among lower income groups
• Price increases in the previous year, which are now increasingly deterring customers
• Fewer orders per visit & fewer premium products in the shopping basket (weaker product mix)

🌐 System-wide sales (system-wide sales):

• This comprises the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants, i.e. both existing and new locations, regardless of whether they are operated by McDonald's itself or by franchise partners.

• Q1 2025: -1 %
• but: +1 % at constant exchange rates

What does this mean?

Without the influence of fluctuating exchange rates, sales would have increased by 1 %. Calculated in US dollars, for example, a weak euro has a negative impact, even though the local business is stable.

🔁 Leap Day distorts comparison:

2024 was a leap year with February 29 (Leap Day), which means one more day of sales compared to 2025, making the previous year's base appear artificially higher. This makes the decline in sales appear larger than it actually is.

🎯 Loyalty program, McDonald's digital joker

Via the app or with a customer account, users receive loyalty points for their orders, which they can exchange for free products or discounts, similar to Payback but with burgers.

• $8 billion in sales in Q1 2025 with loyalty members
• $31 billion in the last 12 months
• 175 million active users (in the last 90 days), measured on a rolling basis

Why is the revenue from loyalty members higher than the Group revenue of $5.96 bn?

• The $8 billion are system sales (Systemwide Sales see above, i.e. the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants worldwide, including franchise operations.

• McDonald's Group revenue ($5.96 billion) only includes the revenue of the company itself (e.g. franchise fees & revenue from own stores).

➡ The high loyalty revenue shows how strong customer loyalty and app usage have become and how important this digital strategy is for McDonald's future.

➡️ Loyalty customers order more frequently, spend more and are less price-sensitive. The program helps McDonald's to stabilize sales and retain customers, especially in difficult economic times.

💳 Consumer climate & customer behavior

"In contrast to a few months ago, spending by middle-class consumers has now fallen almost as sharply as that of low-income households."

• Christopher Kempczinski, CEO

• Macroeconomic pressure & geopolitical uncertainty are impacting the QSR environment more than expected.
• Low- and middle-income customers are spending significantly less - especially in the USA.
• High-income customers remain relatively stable.

UnderstandingWhat is the QSR environment?

QSR = Quick Service Restaurant

This refers to the quick service restaurant sector, e.g. McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, KFC, etc.

When the "QSR industry" is mentioned in the earnings call, this refers to the competition and demand in the global fast food sector.

The "QSR environment" includes:

• Consumer behavior (how often do people go out to eat?)
• competitive pressure
• pricing strategies
• Costs (e.g. for raw materials, wages, rents)

🔎 Interim conclusion so far:

As expected, the figures show a challenging quarter with declines in sales and earnings in almost all core markets.

The USA in particular suffered from inflation, price pressure and weaker demand.

At the same time, McDonald's remains remarkably profitable with an operating margin of 45.5 %, which speaks for the resilience of the business model.

Growth in the licensed markets (IDL) and the strong loyalty program provide clear rays of hope.

For me, these are the first signs that McDonald's is structurally well positioned, even if the short-term momentum is currently slowing.

⚙️ Further initiatives & Strategy 2025:

Value-oriented menu strategy & McValue platform

"Leadership in price-performance is crucial in this environment."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• $5 Meal Deal in the USA
• EDAP menus (Every Day Affordable Price) in all 5 most important international markets
• Example France: Happy Meal for €4, menu cooperation with Ligue 1
• Example Germany: new McSmart Snacks program for price-conscious customers

Customer loyalty & marketing offensives

"Our Minecraft campaign is our biggest global campaign to date - with over 100 participating markets."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• Minecraft movie campaign with digital experience & in-store promos
• 50 years of breakfast in the US with McMuffin Day & bagel return
• In Canada: $1 coffee & field hockey promo with 50 million impressions

Innovation & new structure

"We are creating burger, chicken & beverage specialists as we compete more and more against specialized players (e.g. chains that focus only on chicken or beverages, such as Chick-fil-A or Starbucks) to develop targeted products and better compete in these segments."

• New Restaurant Experience Team
• Faster implementation thanks to integrated product/tech/supply approach
• CosMc's insights flow into new beverage tests in US stores
• New category managers for Beef, Chicken & Beverages

GBS = Global Business Services:

• McDonald's centralizes areas such as accounting, IT & controlling to save costs and work faster.

More focus on mobile orders & digitalization

• Mobile orders via app & kiosks make the ordering process more efficient, collect data and increase basket value

Investments:

• +$300-500 million CapEx planned annually until 2027
• Focus on new restaurants, modernization & technology

📉 Challenges:

• Inflation & reluctance to spend, especially in the USA & Europe
• Currency risks: Weak foreign currencies depress sales in US dollars
• Operating margin pressure: Rising costs coupled with falling visitor numbers

📌 Personal conclusion

In the first quarter, McDonald's showed that even a giant can come under pressure, especially in a weak economic environment with declining visitor numbers in the US and Europe.

Nevertheless, the share price has remained relatively stable.

At the same time, I am convinced by the long-term levers:

the strong loyalty program, targeted pricing models and the international expansion in licensed markets (IDL), which are growing solidly.

I am continuing to hold my position, as McDonald's remains a robust basic investment for me.

However, there will be no further acquisitions at the moment, as I would first like to see margins and customer numbers stabilize in the long term.

_____________

Thank you for reading! 🤝

_____________

Sources:

[1] https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/Q1_25_Earnings_Release.pdf

[2] https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/5595/events/314423?targetTime=0.0

______________

$MCD (-1,02 %)
$YUM (+2,51 %)
$QSR (-2,52 %)
$WEN (-3,09 %)
$CMG (-3,9 %)
$SBUX (-1,9 %)
$DPZ (+0,01 %)
$JACK (-3,45 %)

I have been invested in Chipotle since 2023 $CMG (-3,9 %) since 2023. Not only do I really like the company, I also wanted to try the food.

In Europe, Chipotle is only available in Frankfurt, France and the UK. So it's a good thing that Chipotle is in Dubai and the last stop on my trip took me there.

This gave me my first live impression of how the food is ordered there, how long the wait is and, of course, how it tastes.

Similar to other fast food chains, the order could be placed at the terminal without staff. The staff were friendly and asked during the ordering process if everything was OK and if I had any questions. I then ordered a "burrito bowl" with rice, double chicken and guacamole. I also got a soft drink to pour myself with an unlimited refill:

With the place so 80% full, we had to wait about 5-7min for our food. It tasted great, of course not comparable to a restaurant, but very good for fast food. The whole thing cost around €20 (welcome to Dubai 😅). I think that's still ok when you consider that at $MCD (-1,02 %) now also comes in at around €15 per menu. The quality of the food at $CMG (-3,9 %) was significantly better.

Speaking of
DubaiDubai is an amazing city, it's 43 degrees right now, incredibly modern and cosmopolitan. When you're there and experience it, you worry about Europe even more than you already do. Almost everyone speaks English, everything is signposted in English, the roads are very well developed and the people are very hospitable.

As I don't want this to turn into a travel blog, I'll stop now 🙈

Stay tuned,

Yours Nico