ASML - Valuation, scenarios and reality (2026-2030)
ASML is an exceptional stock in operational terms. However, the valuation also reflects this quite consistently.
Current valuation (based on 2026)
Let's take the current guidance and make a rough deduction:
- Sales 2026: ~€38 billion (midpoint)
- Net margin: ~30%
- Profit: ~11-12 billion €
This results in:
- Market capitalization: ~€350-400 bn
- P/E RATIO: ~30-35
- Free cash flow yield: ~2.5-3 %
This is not an exaggeration on the upside - but also far from "cheap".
Why the market is prepared to pay this
ASML has characteristics that are hard to find anywhere else:
- Quasi-monopoly in EUV
- Extreme barriers to entry
- Predictable demand due to long-term customer cycles
- Direct beneficiary of the AI boom
This justifies a structurally higher valuation than for classic cyclicals.
Scenario analysis until 2030
Now it gets interesting. Three realistic scenarios:
1. base case (realistic)
- Sales grow to € 55-60 billion by 2030
- Margins remain stable (~30%)
- Profit: ~17-18 bn €
→ Fair multiple: P/E ratio 25
→ Market value 2030: ~€425-450 bn
☀️☀️☀️Ergebnis:
Solid yield, but no longer a multibagger.
2nd bull case (AI explosion)
- Sales: € 65-70 bn
- Margins increase slightly (High-NA EUV, pricing power)
- Profit: ~€22 bn
→ P/E ratio of 30 remains unchanged
→ Market value: ~€650+ bn
☀️☀️☀️ Result:
Very strong performance possible - but highly dependent on AI capex cycle.
3rd bear case (regulation + cycle)
- China business falls away more strongly
- Investment cycles weaken
- Turnover: ~€45 bn
- Profit: ~€13 billion
→ P/E ratio falls to 20
→ Market value: ~€260 billion
☀️☀️☀️ Result:
Significant downside risk despite good company.
What many underestimate
ASML is no longer a "normal" tech stock.
The company is:
- less disruptive
- but more systemically relevant
The problem:
☀️☀️☀️Systemrelevante Companies are rarely traded cheaply
The actual investment thesis
The market is currently pricing in:
- long-term growth
- stable margins
- no structural breaks
That can work. But it doesn't have to in this perfection.
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