6H·

The commentary can be thought-provoking

There is an interesting commentary in the Handelsblatt today, which I would like to share here (in excerpts).

SAP and Microsoft show what the stock markets are really like

SAP $SAP (-16,25 %) publishes good figures for the past year and gives a strong outlook. Only the high growth in the cloud division disappoints the high expectations. The share price promptly falls by 15 percent.

Just like SAP, Microsoft also proves $MSFT (-7,41 %)proves that excellent results are no longer enough. The heavyweight loses seven percent. This means that the equivalent of 200 billion euros in stock market value was destroyed in one fell swoop, enough to buy a DAX company the size of Siemens. $SIE (+2,58 %) could be bought.

The dotcom bubble began to burst in a similarly turbulent fashion shortly after the turn of the millennium, when companies that were popular with investors at the time, such as Cisco $CSCO (-0,25 %)Nokia and AOL were no longer able to meet the ever-increasing expectations.

Now it can be argued that today's high-flyers, unlike the companies of that time, are generating much higher profits in the billions. Shares such as SAP, Microsoft and a number of other popular technology stocks are nowhere near as insanely high as they were back then. However, this does not mean the all-clear for two reasons.

Firstly, many shares in other sectors outside the technology industry are now highly valued after years of very strong stock market gains. This makes the stock markets as a whole vulnerable.

Secondly, there is another serious problem: the flight from the dollar. The world's leading currency is losing value because America is losing investor confidence. The price of gold, which has risen by 100 percent in just one year, is a dramatic sign of these concerns.

In any case, the sharp falls in the share prices of SAP and Microsoft show that shareholders are no longer looking for good news in company balance sheets, as has been the case in recent years, and using this as an opportunity to buy more shares. Instead, the slightest blemishes are causing them to sell shares. This is not a good sign for the state of the stock markets.

Source text (excerpt) & image: Handelsblatt, 29.01.26

I am looking forward to your opinions (there has already been a lot written about the current price reactions in the community).

13 Comentarios

fund_manager_272@fund_manager_272

It's great when, despite fundamentally good figures and data, the hypersensitive market puts a dip directly in front of the feet of a long-term investor.

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

Well, that's basically true, but what about $META?

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nassimcanim@nassimcanim

Danke!

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Olli@Olli68

I like the comment 👍

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

Of course, we can take a look in the rear-view mirror in two years' time and realize that I am wrong.
As you have already described, the year 2000 was primarily about the promise of profits. We are currently seeing a similar phenomenon with AI, saw it around hydrogen and see it with some defense hopes and mining companies. However, I would make a strict distinction between this and companies that, unlike in 2000, are posting real book profits.

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Olli@Olli68

@DonaldTruck OpenAI and real book profits🤔

On the other hand, Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Oracle have made "real book profits" in the year 😉.

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

@Olli68 I wasn't talking about OpenAI either. I was talking about the fact that there are companies that implement AI and the price does not diverge from the price gains. Rather, I said that there are companies where this is the case. Therefore, I would not speak of a bubble in principle.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

@Olli68 It's clear that a lot of money is shifted back and forth with OpenAI! But what about the other big tech companies? 😉 Don't Alphabet, Amazon... earn any money? Of course these companies invest a lot, but you have to be realistic about the fact that dotcom and today are worlds apart. Of course, many companies will disappear and some people will definitely lose a lot of money because they blindly invest in every company that has AI "on it"

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Olli@Olli68

@DonaldTruck In the dotcom bubble, there were also only a few companies that were hyped and eventually exploded (e.g. Netscape, Yahoo, AOL). The companies I mentioned above were profitable and were dragged down by their interdependencies and pulled the sector down.
The links between OpenAI and today's profitable companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle etc. are indeed very similar to that phase. If OpenAI bursts or it becomes foreseeable that they will not meet their obligations or profitability is not foreseeable, we will see it in the share prices of Microsoft, Nvidia etc.. And then the whole tech sector will explode. Just like back then.

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Olli@Olli68

@BavarianLion I think, unlike you, I was already on the stock market in the last millennium and actively experienced this time (1995-2005). I hope I described the similarities in my previous post.
When 1 big company bursts, the whole sector goes down.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

@Olli68 You are indeed right, this interdependence is enough to cause a company to miss expectations and the powder keg to explode 💀

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Olli@Olli68

@BavarianLion You just have to see, OpenAI has already made promises about orders of 1500 billion dollars, which are already priced into the share prices of Nvidia, Oracle etc.. Apart from the capital investments.

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livkasmile@livkasmile

I wouldn't compare sap and msft... MSFT is everywhere and it won't change probably in forseable future, SAP on the other hand has its grace far in the past. Just my humble IT opinion.

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