Stock market high-flyer or pipe-dropper?
I'm asking these questions in such a provocative way because I believe that this fairly accurately reflects the various assessments of $NOVO B (+1,41 %) here in the community.
Personally, I think that all 4 terms don't really hit the mark and that the truth lies more in the middle. Although my pendulum tends to swing towards the worse option. But that's not such a surprise for most people here.
So I've put together a short list of pros and cons that led me to this assessment.
Pros:
Many years of experience in the diabetes market with successfully launched products!
Strong foothold in the booming obesity market and therefore weight loss products
Strong product pipeline
Good dividend payer
Reasonable valuation as long as the targets are achieved
Cons:
almost all sales come from a very competitive market
targets have recently been revised downwards several times
Focus on a health topic with diabetes and weight loss that everyone wants to get into
Price pressure leading to lower earnings and thus also jeopardizing targets and dividends
Serious price cuts in the USA, which will be officially announced in the deal with the US government on Thursday.
And it is precisely this last point that forms the basis of my assessment that $NOVO B (+1,41 %) will be under €35 in the near future, if not under €30. I know that many people will now come along and say that I'm forgetting that they will get access to Medicare in return, and that this will more than compensate for the loss of sales due to the price reduction. I'm very skeptical about that. If in the USA a product with a comparable effect and the same cost were to be produced by a multi-billion dollar US corporation $LLY (+1,67 %) or from a comparatively Danish chip shop called $NOVO B (+1,41 %) patriotic Americans, with the support of their patriotic America First President, will always opt for the American product.
But of course, things could turn out quite differently and the oral efficacy of the Novo drug could suddenly be twice as high as that of the Danish product. $LLY (+1,67 %) then all $NOVO B (+1,41 %) investors here will rejoice and I would wish you all the best. I just don't have the faith.
