My BTC strategy 💸

@Disco_Stu Well, you could argue that I just got punched in the face, considering this is the first time my portfolio has been negative since 2022. I’m aware that the strategy is risky, but with the help of indicators and the AI agent I tried to minimize emotional bias in my decisions.
That said, I’d genuinely appreciate some constructive criticism from you.

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SGP@Koenigmidas

Thanks for the insight

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Solid strategy - wild that you've been at it since you were 15😲 how did that come about? :)
When I read Solana, I choked for a moment, otherwise your strategy sounds very well thought out😘

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@stefan_21 Thank you :)
I've actually always been interested in investing and tried a few penny stocks when I was 14 until my brother introduced me to BTC... Then I started looking into it :)

To be honest, Solana is only a part of the growth layer because I got Solana as a reward for affiliate at Robinhood and I also stake it there. It will also be moved to the value layer during the first rotation.

Thank you a lot in the last years I could learn from you :)

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@Norisknofun Very cool that you got into it so early. I stumbled across Bitcoin for the first time when I was 16 and I wasn't interested in it at all (unfortunately) :D I was thinking about soccer and beer 24/7🤣

You can also buy altcoins with a (small) portion. There's nothing wrong with that. You can earn a lot of money very quickly. But you need luck and the right coin at the right time, and you have to get out at the right time. A little gambling has never hurt anyone :)

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@stefan_21 But 16 is also very young, I only had about €20 a month back then, so my buy-in isn't that good because I'm investing a lot more now... I spent the rest on parties back then too haha
Which altcoins do you find interesting? For me, $MSTR is the booster with which I want to make a lot of money, especially when phase 2 occurs, i.e. when we get close to or fall below 200WMA with BTC :)

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@Norisknofun That sounds good :) But please remember that Strategy also involves considerably more risk than Bitcoin.
After all, you still have to trust the management. And Coinbase is the custodian of Strategy's coins. So if I were you, I would simply buy Bitcoin as the main part - and a few Strategy shares on the side to be able to outperform Bitcoin a little if necessary. Of course, the shares also have to be taxed and Bitcoin hasn't been after 1 year. So Strategy should perform so much better than Bitcoin that it's still worth it.

I actually find altcoins generally uninteresting😅

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@Norisknofun but I will also buy a few Strategy shares again for fun. And maybe also a few XXI and Metaplanet. But for now I'll wait and see :)

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@stefan_21 Yes, so $MSTR is also more of a booster and will take up a maximum of 10-15% of the portfolio value and will only be financed from my value layer as I don't sell any other shares (as of now) I still have the annual allowance and if I'm honest I think that $MSTR Bitcoin will be strongly outperformed if Bitcoin goes to 200k so as of now a little less than 4x I think MSTR would make 7-10x....
Since $MSTR I think if another drawdown comes (i.e. btc falls below 200WMA) $MSTR will be available for under 80€ which would be 6x to the ATH alone and if BTC 2030 then goes to 200k I see $MSTR at 500-600€+
But it really has more risk and that's why I limit it to 10-15% and it also has no influence on my BTC accumulation as I only finance $MSTR from $VWCE (value layer) ;)
So as much BTC as possible is ultimately the goal and $MSTR is more of a tool for the purpose ;)

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Echsenkönig A.@Bezehgombjuderstimme

I will also document the capital rotation and the limit orders in the corresponding market phases here from now on :)

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MTG@MTG

Bookmarked.

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23H

First of all, I think it's good that you're starting to invest at such an early age. But what you write reminds me a bit of my business studies, where everything was given a fancy name 😅 (no front). In the end, you can have as many value and groth layers as you like, but to me it all sounds like I'm putting my eggs in one basket. It feels like you're 95% dependent on the BTC price when I read it like that. Maybe you're doing everything right and in 5-10 years you'll explain to me in a YouTube video from Bali how you got so fucking rich. Per se, I'm always in favor of taking risks as a young person, but this thing can also blow up in your face. I'm pro-Bitcoin and currently have around 3% of my portfolio and would let it grow to a maximum of 10%. From my somewhat older perspective, I can tell you that just because Bitcoin has properties x y z and is better than many other things on paper and can save the world, that doesn't necessarily mean that it will prevail over other assets in the long term. Back in the days of the DVD, there was a technically better alternative, just like minidisk, and yet they went under completely. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you and hope (also for myself) that your plan works out, for me that would be a bit too one-sided a strategy 😅

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21H

@Bezehgombjuderstimme Thank you for your detailed answer :) That's true, they are fancy names but they are also fun 😂. And you're right, I put my eggs in one basket, because the value layer is only there to be able to buy more $BTC / $MSTR in the bear market and the growth layer is only there to perhaps otzuperform BTC and then shift it into the value layer (for the next bear market). So in the end, the strategy is all about BTC
Why?
I belive in BTC and I now know BTC quite well, the difference to DVD or other things that have not caught on is that BTC is already the largest cryptocurrency and has gained extreme confidence in recent years... In 2022 I still remember how I sat at school and my finance teacher told me after the FTX crash that BTC was dead and I scraped together all my pocket money at 15 to buy at €15,000 (BTC price). 3 years later the same finance teacher proudly told me about his btc savings plan... so I've been involved in times with btc where it looked much worse. Doesn't mean it will be 100% good again. But if the 4-year cycle doesn't work out and my strategy doesn't work out then I'll know by 2030 at the latest (1 year after the halving) when I'll be 23... And if the strategy works out I'll be more than average and if not I'll be like everyone else with a bit left over in $VWCE and individual stocks
The aim is to gradually build up a few companies that I believe in for the worst case scenario.
It's a bit of an all or nothing game... except that I personally see the odds of winning the game at over 90% and am therefore willing to take them. Thanks for your thoughts though :)

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20H

@Norisknofun I feel the same way as the previous speaker, I have my own and am not completely against it, but when I browse through texts like this, all the alarm bells go off in me because someone has obviously decided to believe. I mean, my intuition and my faith are always my last resort ... but that should not be the basis for financial decisions. That's even more dangerous than the emotional action that you actually wanted to prevent with your theory.

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20H

@Musikerie You are confusing something here I want to prevent emotional decisions regarding BTC accumulation! What you call a belief is a belief for me that has been backed up by 4 years in the BTC market and several books and hundreds of videos... yes I am convinced of BTC and if you had read the texts, you might have realized that I am aware of the risk of the strategy.

As just described I am in the worst case scenario 23 with a remainder in $VWCE and individual stocks (probably over 10k in total by then) and could then additionally learn from a mistake if btc really goes to 0. Doesn't sound so bad to me for worst case.

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18H

@Norisknofun Yes, it's exactly this - I'm aware of all the risks, but I still believe in it ... that it reminds me a little of my early days. That's all ok and legitimate. I would also advise a young person to take a higher risk. We've all experienced radical youth at some point. Today, I would at least say ok, but if you already know Bitcoin so well then use phases like the last year to gain experience with other assets. If I know that Bitcoin is going through a phase again, then I don't have to go through it and can make money elsewhere in the meantime. Buying falling prices for a year instead of making a little return on precious metals or emerging markets simply seems pointless to me. But then there's that religious aspect of the scene again ... You can't just change your church congregation. That would weaken your faith. In the end, you are the biggest threat to Bitcoin. People who are so convinced of THEIR assett, come what may, are right to be suspicious.

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18H

@Musikerie Sorry I really don't want to get personal but you obviously haven't read the strategy!!! I ask you to do that when you criticize and then from above...

For a brief explanation I have gained experience and have only now designed this strategy the strategy literally says that in the bull market a part of my btc position and my entire $MSTR position will be shifted to the $VWCE (value layer where profits will continue to be made and the capital stored) if Bitcoin then falls for a year then I will start (see reload system) to gradually shift parts of the value layer back into BTC!
Nowhere here does it say I hold on to Bitcoin no matter what and if btc goes to 200k I hold everything because it will certainly firejt go on to 1 million etc. That would be what you describe as religion-like holding, but unfortunately it has little to nothing to do with my strategy.
Please either read the entire strategy and even how stupid you think it is let this down from above ("I'm older and was once young and stupid out") would be a lot more pleasant
Best regards but still wish you the best 😉

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13H

@Norisknofun You're allowed to get personal and you're right, I can't do more than skim through it, I've never managed to read the Bible. Fucking adhs. But let me tell you, I don't think you're stupid (stupid was my criticism without reading cleverly), at most stupid (but I shouldn't write that, I mean that nicely😉) I make a strict distinction between stupid and stupid. I accept your criticism 😌

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

13H

@Musikerie Well, it is only difficult to respond to criticism that is unfounded in my view according to the current plan, I would be at the next bull run with a BTC exposure of 80% then I would shift to 40/60 and in the next bear market if btc position then only 20-30% I would buy cheaper again that is briefly summarized the plan (not necessarily something new)

A lot of people are actually planning to do this. The difference is that some don't buy in the bear market after all or the even bigger problem is that they fall for the euphoria in the bull run and hold on to everything and discard the plan because they think that btc will go to 1 million to prevent this, I have left the phasing to an AI agent after a relatively long fine-tuning of the prompt and system.
Let's see where being stupid will take me in 3 years, we'll both only know then until then I wish us both maximum returns :)

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Hi, thanks for sharing!
Sounds exciting and coherent, but do you do it so freely from the gut, or do you switch to the next "level" when one of the criteria is met? What percentage of your portfolio do you invest in this strategy?

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@Klein-Anleger hey :) so the corresponding market indicators are evaluated weekly by AI agents and then converted into the corresponding phase by a scoring system... so the gut feeling is rather left out which is important to me because in the past I have mostly made wrong decisions out of emotions😂

The phases don't actually change that often, but I might upload a second part where I go into the phasing in more detail

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