The most common pushback against the bullish silver thesis is: “Don’t worry, solar will just switch from silver to copper.” How plausible is that?

Alexander Campbell (ex Head of Commodities at Bridgewater) frames it this way:

🔻Demand destruction threshold

• He puts the “break-even / where demand destruction even begins” around $134/oz (not a price target, but the level where the squeeze starts to bite).

⏳ The bottleneck is time (not money)

• Rough math: ~300 factories worldwide, ~1.5 years to convert each to copper plating, and ~60 factories/year parallel capacity --> ~4 years minimum to reach 50% copper adoption.

💸 Even if economics scream “do it”…

• Around $125/oz, payback drops below 1 year, but “deciding tomorrow” still doesn’t compress the industrial timeline (physics/operations > incentives)

🛠️ Not plug-and-play

• Switching to copper isn’t a simple input swap; it requires process/design changes, manufacturing workflow changes, and retraining/qualification.

🔁 The mix effect (PERC → TOPCon → HJT)

• While copper is discussed, the tech mix shift can increase silver intensity on average (he cites ~13.5 mg/W in 2025 vs ~15.2 mg/W in 2030).

✅ Bottom line

Copper may be the long-term “end state”, but it’s unlikely to be an immediate kill switch. Silver can move faster than the PV supply chain can retool.

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/10-silver-days-of-christmas

$SSLN (-0,63 %)
$SILG (-1,8 %)
$PHAG (-0,7 %)
$XAD6 (-0,58 %)
$SIVR (-0,88 %)
$SLV (-0,88 %)
$SIL (-1,38 %)
$SILJ
$PAAS (-1,11 %)
$AG (+1,11 %)
$EDR (-1,12 %)
$SVM (-1,39 %)
$MAG
$HL (-1,68 %)
$SAMG
$AYA (-1,6 %)

Rising industrial demand, rigid supply and a market in continuous deficit since 2020.

⚡ The photovoltaic boom isn’t slowing down: total silver demand is expected to reach between 48,000 and 54,000 tonnes per year, with the solar sector alone accounting for up to 40% of global consumption.

⚒️ On the supply side, 72% of silver is produced as a byproduct, and any new primary mine takes nearly a decade to come online. Supply elasticity is almost zero.

Even after factoring in more recycling and lower silver intensity per solar cell, the model shows that by 2030, supply would cover at best 70% of demand — leaving a gap that someone will have to fill… or that prices will eventually correct for.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344925004392

$SSLN (-0,63 %)
$SILG (-1,8 %)
$PHAG (-0,7 %)
$XAD6 (-0,58 %)
$SIVR (-0,88 %)
$SLV (-0,88 %)
$SIL (-1,38 %)
$SILJ
$PAAS (-1,11 %)
$AG (+1,11 %)
$EDR (-1,12 %)
$SVM (-1,39 %)
$MAG
$HL (-1,68 %)
$SAMG
$AYA (-1,6 %)