The most common pushback against the bullish silver thesis is: “Don’t worry, solar will just switch from silver to copper.” How plausible is that?

Alexander Campbell (ex Head of Commodities at Bridgewater) frames it this way:

🔻Demand destruction threshold

• He puts the “break-even / where demand destruction even begins” around $134/oz (not a price target, but the level where the squeeze starts to bite).

⏳ The bottleneck is time (not money)

• Rough math: ~300 factories worldwide, ~1.5 years to convert each to copper plating, and ~60 factories/year parallel capacity --> ~4 years minimum to reach 50% copper adoption.

💸 Even if economics scream “do it”…

• Around $125/oz, payback drops below 1 year, but “deciding tomorrow” still doesn’t compress the industrial timeline (physics/operations > incentives)

🛠️ Not plug-and-play

• Switching to copper isn’t a simple input swap; it requires process/design changes, manufacturing workflow changes, and retraining/qualification.

🔁 The mix effect (PERC → TOPCon → HJT)

• While copper is discussed, the tech mix shift can increase silver intensity on average (he cites ~13.5 mg/W in 2025 vs ~15.2 mg/W in 2030).

✅ Bottom line

Copper may be the long-term “end state”, but it’s unlikely to be an immediate kill switch. Silver can move faster than the PV supply chain can retool.

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/10-silver-days-of-christmas

$SSLN (+0,71 %)
$SILG (+1,4 %)
$PHAG (+2,21 %)
$XAD6 (+2,21 %)
$SIVR (+1,68 %)
$SLV (+1,67 %)
$SIL (+1,98 %)
$SILJ
$PAAS (+1,63 %)
$AG (-0 %)
$EDR (+1,88 %)
$SVM (+0,96 %)
$MAG
$HL (+1,38 %)
$SAMG
$AYA (+1,44 %)

Rising industrial demand, rigid supply and a market in continuous deficit since 2020.

⚡ The photovoltaic boom isn’t slowing down: total silver demand is expected to reach between 48,000 and 54,000 tonnes per year, with the solar sector alone accounting for up to 40% of global consumption.

⚒️ On the supply side, 72% of silver is produced as a byproduct, and any new primary mine takes nearly a decade to come online. Supply elasticity is almost zero.

Even after factoring in more recycling and lower silver intensity per solar cell, the model shows that by 2030, supply would cover at best 70% of demand — leaving a gap that someone will have to fill… or that prices will eventually correct for.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344925004392

$SSLN (+0,71 %)
$SILG (+1,4 %)
$PHAG (+2,21 %)
$XAD6 (+2,21 %)
$SIVR (+1,68 %)
$SLV (+1,67 %)
$SIL (+1,98 %)
$SILJ
$PAAS (+1,63 %)
$AG (-0 %)
$EDR (+1,88 %)
$SVM (+0,96 %)
$MAG
$HL (+1,38 %)
$SAMG
$AYA (+1,44 %)

After spending some time searching for the right way to gain exposure to silver through mining companies (100% pure silver + good management) I’ve decided to start building my position in $AYA (+1,44 %) Aya Gold & Silver, a Canadian silver producer with key operations in Morocco.

Core assets

• Aya operates the Zgounder mine, one of Africa’s most significant silver deposits, with over 100Moz in resources including the large proven reserves noted above. A recently completed expansion positions the company for strong production growth.
• Aya also owns the Boumadine polymetallic project with high-grade intercepts in silver, gold, lead, copper, and zinc—all reported after just two years of active exploration.

2025 guidance

Aya expects silver production at Zgounder to range between 5.0 and 5.3 million ounces in 2025, with cash costs estimated between $15.00 and $17.50 per ounce and recovery rates around 84–88%. Based on current production guidance, I estimate that Aya could generate up to $80 million in operating cash flow this year under reference conditions of a silver price around $34.12/oz and cash costs near $15/oz. This outlook is supported by the ramp-up to a steady-state throughput of 3,000 tpd and ongoing efficiency gains.

Management

The company is led by Benoit La Salle, CEO since April 2020, a veteran mining executive with over 25 years of experience, particularly in Africa. He founded SEMAFO Inc. in 1995 and built it from a junior explorer into a major West African gold producer delivering over 250,000 ounces annually.

Valuation and upside potentiall

While the is beginning to reward Aya’s operational progress and asset quality, the company still trades at attractive multiples relative to peers. With a current market cap of around $1.3 billion USD and projected free cash flow above $100 million by 2026, the risk/reward setup remains compelling if execution stays on track.

In summary

After a thorough search across the silver mining sector, I see Aya Gold & Silver as the right choice—offering tier-one assets like Zgounder with strong reserves, a high-grade polymetallic project at Boumadine, experienced leadership under Benoit La Salle, scalable production growth, and strong cash flow outlook. I’ve just initiated a position and will continue tracking project developments and quarterly results.