Hello my dears,

Today I have picked out a company from Poland for you.

US. We've had enough US companies recently, and there's already been a Japan special.

And we are supposed to diversify.

Today I focused on growth in my selection.

With 15 out of 15 points in the Traderfox growth check, I should be able to achieve this with Shoper I should have succeeded.

$SHO (+0,53 %)

Shoper is a software-as-a-service providerthat enables retailers to their own online stores similar to Shopify, but with a strong focus on the Polish market.

🧩 Business model

Shoper operates a classic SaaS model with recurring revenues:

🔹 1. subscription-based store software

• Private label stores for retailers
• Hosting, templates, store management, integrations

🔹 2. additional services (most important growth driver)

Shoper has an ecosystem that provides retailers with numerous services:

• Marketing & advertising services
• SEO & positioning services
• Payment processing (Shoper Payments)
• logistics solutions
• Security solutions
• Shoper Connect (integration online ↔ offline)

The share of these additional services in sales is set to increase to 80 % by 2026

As always, I look forward to your views in the comments.

Who knows the company or is already invested?

Shoper SA is a Poland-based company that operates an internet store with online payments. The company's software includes all the necessary tools and integrations for professional online sales: modern payments, bilateral integration with Allegro, courier services and magazines as well as a Facebook store.

Number of employees: 321

Fundamental

Shoper Spolka Akcyjna Bearer Shs Share Profile

The Shoper Spolka Akcyjna Bearer share is traded under ISIN PLSHPR000021. In the past financial year, Shoper Spolka Akcyjna Bearer generated sales of PLN 192.8 million, which corresponds to growth of 26.35% compared to the previous year. The operating profit amounted to PLN 45.27 million, an improvement of 42.82%. Net profit for the year amounted to PLN 37.51 million, an improvement of 42.86%. As at the balance sheet date, the company had total assets of PLN 153.39 million. Reported equity amounted to PLN 73.96 million, which corresponds to an equity ratio of 48.21%. Total debt amounted to PLN 18.49 million, with a debt/assets ratio of 12.05%. Shoper Spolka Akcyjna Bearer had 353 employees at the end of the financial year, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the previous year. Turnover per employee amounted to PLN 0.55 million. The company paid a dividend of PLN 1.03 per share for the past financial year, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 2.59%. The price/earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is 29.77 and the price/book ratio (P/B ratio) is 15.1.

 Investments in AI

 New products:

• SIBS Gateway (online payment solution)
• Findnado - AI-based e-commerce search engine

Prezentacja programu PowerPoint

Historical fundamental figures

PLN in millions

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2024 192,8 26,35 %

2025 227,0 17,74 %

2026 267,3 17,73 %

2027 313,3 17,24 %

Year EBIT Change

2024 44,96 42,26%

2025 61,50 36,80 %

2026 78,86 28,22 %

2027 97,18 23,24 %

Year Net profit Change

2024 37,51 42,86 %

2025 48,55 29,44 %

2026 63,95 31,71 %

2027 79,58 24,45 %

Year Net debt CAPEX

2024 -18,7 14,55

2025 -32 17,95

2026 -51,4 19,75

2027 83,8 20,10

Year Free cash flow Change

2024 46,04 34,84 %

2025 37,88 -17,71 %

2026 63,87 68,59 %

2027 80,22 25,60 %

Year EBIT Margin ROE

2024 23,32 % 57,64 %

2025 27,09 % 56,70 %

2026 29,51 % 56,56 %

2027 31,02 % 54,70 %

Year Earnings per share Change

2024 1,3 42,86 %

2025 1,59 22,31 %

2026 2,258 41,98 %

2027 2,897 28,31 %

Year P/E ratio PEG

2024 30.5x 0.7x

2025 34.6x 1.6x

2026 24.4x 0.6x

2027 19x 0.7x

Year Dividend p share Yield

2024 1,03 2,59 %

2025 1,002 1,82 %

2026 1,283 2,33 %

2027 1,682 3,06 %

Number of shares (in thousands) 28,135

PLN in millions

Market value 1,547

Date of publication 28,03,2025

Brief overview

Introduction

Our history

Business areas

Business figures

Latest quarterly figures

Shopers Moat/Competition?

Shareholder structure

Valuation

Conclusion

Sources

Brief overview

Market capitalization: 1.36 billion zlotys (312.8 million euros)

KGV/KGVE: 37/30

annualized yield: -2 % p.a.

Analyst rating: Buy

Introduction

Shoper $SHO (+0,53 %) is a Polish B2B company that provides software and services for building and managing online stores. The company currently employs 243 people and its CEO is Jakub Dwernicki. Shoper also includes the companies Apilo (multi-channel sales management system), Shoplo (online store provider), Selium (marketplace agency) and Sempire (SEO marketing agency). Together, however, these only account for 10% of total sales (with a slight upward trend).

History

"Starting with the brand Shoper, our goal was to offer sellers Polish and affordable software."

Krzysztof Krawczyk, founder

The brothers Krzysztof Krawczyk and Rafal Krawczyk founded Shoper together in 2005. They previously had a computer equipment company. When they wanted to set up an online store, they realized that there was no provider with the right software. Shoper was born. Over time, the business became a subscription model and additional solutions were added. In 2021, the company successfully went public on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and was listed on the sWIG80 (Polish index for small companies).

Business areas

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

SAAS subscriptions: recurring revenue from subscriptions taken out by customers to create and operate an online store

Additional service: Corporate customers can take advantage of additional fee-based solutions to increase sales. This includes many different services:

Management of advertising campaigns and ads with Shoper in ...

-Search engines (Google Ads and Microsoft Ads)

- Social media (Instagram, Tik Tok and Facebook)

-Sales platforms (Allegro, Amazon)

Integrations and extensions

-Choice of various payment services

-Provision of complete logistics by the logistics company XBS Group

-uvm.

Omnichannel distribution

Shoper also offers the option of selling the products not only on its own website, but also on marketplaces such as Allegro, Ebay, Amazon, Kaufland and Etsy.

Advantages of omnichannel distribution

+ Management of your own products from one page

+ Price and inventory synchronization

+ Development of new markets (also abroad)

+ Independence from just one sales channel

Financial services

Additional financing through loans, bank accounts and payment terminals is available via Shoper's external partners. Shoper presumably receives a commission for every successful referral.

Commission fees: Shoper receives a share of the sales price. The current take rate for the online store is 1.9% and 1.26% for omnichannel.

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

Wholesale subscription: Revenue from the sale of subscriptions to partner companies

Other: Bundling of non-significant other areas

Business figures

Turnover and profit

Shoper has been a high growth company in the past. In the last five years, turnover has increased by 34% annually. However, following the boom in e-commerce triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, growth slowed over the years from 70% to 26% in the last financial year.

However, profits only increased by 25% annually. The profit margin fell accordingly.

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

The reasons for this include the increased costs for salaries and social security contributions. At 38% p.a., they have grown disproportionately to turnover over the last five years. However, the high profit margin in 2021 can also be explained by a one-off effect amounting to złoty 10 million (derecognition of a financial asset).

Shoper is generally only represented in Poland, with only 4% of sales coming from other countries. Although there are no plans to expand into neighboring countries, this is a fairly obvious way of achieving continued high sales growth.

There is a dependency on a business partner called Autopay. Shoper offers integrated payment solutions for its customers, which then runs through Autopay. 13% of total turnover comes from this collaboration with Autopay. A year earlier it was 15%. As both companies benefit from this partnership, the risk of ending the cooperation is low.

Balance sheet

Despite the many acquisitions, Shoper has hardly any debt. The ratio of debt to annual EBITDA is only 0.3, meaning that Shoper can easily reduce its entire debt burden within a year. The cash position increased by 46% to 37 million złoty.

Shares and dividends

There are currently 28.134560 million shares. However, there has been no dilution of existing shareholders over the years. Instead of share buyback programs, Shoper relies on dividend distributions. This year, 1.03 złoty per share was distributed (dividend yield approx. 2.2%). The payout ratio amounted to an exceptional 77% of net profit. I do not know whether the company intends to continue paying out this amount in the coming years.

Last quarterly figures

On May 20, Shoper published its quarterly figures for the first quarter of this year. Turnover growth slowed to 17%, down from 26% last year.

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

One positive aspect, however, is the further improvement in margins. The profit margin improved by one percentage point because operating costs only grew by 14%.

What is not so good is that the cash flow from operating activities only grew by 9%. Capital expenditure slumped by 36% to around 3.5 million złoty. Both have an impact on free cash flow. Ultimately, these figures are only meaningful to a limited extent. For example, the investments could only have been postponed to the second quarter.

With the quarterly figures for the second quarter, it is therefore essential to look at the development of sales growth to see whether the sharp slowdown in the first quarter is only temporary or of a long-term nature. It also makes sense to take a look at the margins and the cash flow in general.

Shopers Moat/Competition?

Companies with a moat (sustainable competitive advantage) promise stability in times of crisis and higher returns. The following also applies: the less competition, the greater the Moat. This raises the question of whether Shoper has a competitive advantage.

Pro competitive advantage

-specialized only for Polish companies (e.g. integration of Allegro in the platform)

-Polish 24/7 support

-low subscription costs

-high margins

-high switching costs

-increasing take rate

Contra competitive advantage

-relatively unknown

-much well-known competition

-low take rate compared to international competition

Shareholder structure

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

cyber_Folks $CBF (-1 %)
: Polish technology company (full takeover unlikely in the medium term); generally positive due to cost sharing in the development area.

Santander: Investment fund management company

Free float: In the past, the founders and other investors held large stakes (72.9%). However, over time, driven by the acquisition of cyber_Folks, they were sold.

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. These are personal assessments that cannot replace professional advice. You can find more stock analyses on my free substack (link in profile).

Conclusion

Apart from the development of the share price, Shoper has been very convincing in the past. Although the management has not yet spoken openly about expansion plans, the development of new markets in Eastern Europe is, as I said, very promising.

Sources

https://investors.shoper.pl/en

Share analysis

1 Brief overview

2 Introduction

3 Business segments

4 Business figures

5 Latest quarterly figures

6 Holding structure

7 Valuation

8 Conclusion

9 Announcement

10 Sources

Brief overview

Market capitalization: 2.29 billion zloty

KGV/KGVE: 25/19

Annualized yield: 45.67 % p.a.

Analyst rating: Buy

Introduction

cyber_Folks $CBF (-1 %) is a Polish technology company specializing in the hosting of websites and the registration and trading of domains. cyber_Folks was founded in 1999 by Jakub Dwernicki. Through major investments in Vercom $VRC (+2,3 %) and Shoper, cyber_Folks is also developing a large ecosystem for many different sectors. The investment in Shoper $SHO (+0,53 %) is not yet included in most business figures because it was only announced at the end of November 2024.

Business areas

https://investors.cyberfolks.pl/

cyber_Folks generates the majority of its revenue from its hosting business. In the 2024 financial year, the company had around 220,000 customers (2023: 220,000 customers). According to the company, the focus is on e-commerce customers.

The most important market is Poland, but the company has also achieved a strong market position in Croatia and Romania. Strategically, the company would like to expand further into more Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria, etc.) in order to enable sustainable growth in the future.

The average revenue per customer (ARPU) in the last 12 months is currently 477 zlotys. A year ago it was 350 zlotys. The trend is therefore pointing upwards.

In the domain business, the ARPU is only 89 zlotys. A positive trend can also be seen here. Compared to the previous year, however, the number of domains shrank by 7% to 365,000.

VAS also includes other, relatively irrelevant additional services such as tools for SEO measures, but these are of secondary importance for this analysis.

Business figures (without Shoper)

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CBF:WSE?hl=de

Over the last 20 years, turnover has grown by an impressive average of 40% per year (including Vercom). In the past financial year, turnover amounted to 657 million zloty, of which cyber_Folks itself accounted for only 160 million (24%). The remaining turnover comes solely from the investment in Vercom.

However, the company's own business is twice as profitable as Vercom with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 44.7%. Revenue increased by 14%, an acceleration of 1 percentage point compared to 2023.

https://investors.cyberfolks.pl/

Despite many acquisitions, cyber_Folks' debt is limited. The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA is a healthy 2.1. Last year, 28 million zlotys were also distributed to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividend payments. The dividend yield is 1.2% and the payout ratio is around 40% of EBIT.

Latest business figures

Revenue increased by 32% to PLN 191 million in the first quarter of 2025, including Vercom and Shoper. Adjusted EBITDA grew disproportionately by 55% to 62 million zlotys (margin: 32%).

The turnover of only cyber_Folks increased constantly by 14%. The adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 49%. Unfortunately, actual profit figures are not published for the first quarter.

Holding structure

https://investors.cyberfolks.pl/

Jacek Duch: Chairman of the Supervisory Board of cyber_Folks

Jakub Dwernicki: Founder and CEO

Robert Dwernicki: no specific information found

TFI Allianz Polska: investment fund company

Vienna PTE: pension fund manager

PTE Allianz Polska: participation by Polish pension funds

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. These are personal assessments that cannot replace professional advice. You can find the detailed and complete stock analysis on my free substack (link in profile).

Conclusion

For me, the corporate network of cyber_Folks and Vercom remains opaque.

However, Vercom is certainly the most relevant for cyber_Folks' share price. It therefore makes no sense to me why an investment in Vercom is not considered directly instead of indirectly via cyber_Folks.

As an international investor, it is unfortunately difficult to understand and actively follow unknown stocks like cyber_Folks anyway. There is also the language barrier. Although some of the annual reports are in English, earnings calls and general meetings are primarily in Polish.

Announcement

In order to maintain the quality of my stock analyses, I will be abandoning my original goal of publishing a post every week after more than two months. In the coming months in particular, I have planned analyses of exciting companies for which I need more time for research. For the time being, I will therefore publish an article every two weeks.

Source

https://investors.cyberfolks.pl/

German shareholders and Poles

Polish companies and shares are rarely discussed in German-speaking countries. The best known are probably Dino Polska
$DNP (-0,62 %) and Zabka $ZAB (+1,3 %) which are both active in the food retail sector. In the small-cap investment community Text S.A. $LVC (+5,55 %) is also known to some. Recently @Daxhund also published a recommendable post about the waste company Mo-BRUK $MBR (-0,54 %) was also published. However, today's post is not about these four shares. This post is the beginning of a kind of series on Polish growth stocks. However, this first post contains some basic information about the Polish economy and a brief introduction to the stocks as a foretaste of what to expect in the coming weeks.

Poland as a business location

The most populous country in Eastern Europe is developing into a very attractive location for companies. This is particularly evident in the rapid development of gross domestic product to date: since 1980, the figure has risen by an average of 7% per year [1]. According to estimates, growth is only expected to slow by two percentage points to 5% per year by 2030. As in Germany, a large part of value creation is generated by the service sector. Industry and agriculture together only contribute around 1/3 to GDP [2]. With an unemployment rate of 2.7 % (Germany: 3.5 %), it also has the lowest unemployment rate in the EU after the Czech Republic [3]. Incidentally, the national currency is the złoty. One złoty is equivalent to around 0.27 US dollars [4]. The currency has recently appreciated slightly, but interest rate cuts are foreseeable in Poland in the coming months [5].

The economic success is also reflected in the share prices of Polish stocks. The best-known index is the WIG20TR performance index. This tracks the 20 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. With an annualized return of around 12 % over the last five years, it is roughly on a par with the German DAX index and the famous S&P 500.

google.com/finance/

It is worth taking a look at the Polish indices that track medium-sized companies. A comparison of the various indices reveals a clear pattern. The smaller the companies covered by the respective index, the higher the return to date. The smallest index, WIG80TR, comprises 80 small Polish companies and has achieved an impressive return of over 20 % per year. This is even better than tech indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (14.5 % p.a.).

google.com/finance/

Disclaimer

This is not investment advice. These are personal assessments and cannot replace professional advice. If you don't want to miss any more stock analyses from me, please subscribe to my free sub-subscription (link in profile).

However, it is difficult to invest in the Polish market via ETFs. However, if you are firmly convinced of Poland, you can take a look at the iShares MSCI Poland UCITS ETF USD (Acc). According to its own statements, the ETF promises "access to the highest-volume companies on the Polish stock market". It contains 13 different stocks. However, the largest position (PKO Bank Polski) is quite overweight with a share of 20% of the total position. The TER of the ETF is also quite high at 0.74% p.a. The past performance correlates strongly with the WIG20TR.

The three stocks

Vercom

With a market capitalization of the equivalent of 600 million euros, Vercom $VRC (+2,3 %) is the most valuable of the three companies. Founded in 2005, the company offers cloud communication platforms (CPaaS) for companies to optimize their relationship with customers. Among its many products is the Emaillabs platform, for example, which can be used to reliably send notifications, password resets, purchase receipts and offers to customers. Turnover rose by 47% to 469 million złoty (112 million euros) in the last financial year. However, the share has its price: according to my own estimates, the P/E ratio is 27. It remains to be seen whether this valuation is justified.

cyber_Folks

cyber_Folks $CBF (-1 %) is a Polish technology company. It specializes in web hosting and the registration and transfer of domains. It's like the Polish Ionos, but without its own cloud. With a steadily growing customer base of 370,000 and impressive average revenue growth of 40% since 2005, there is little to complain about in terms of figures. Half of the turnover comes from Poland, the other half is international sales. The company also holds large stakes in the other two shares. It holds 50 % of the shares in Vercom and 49.9 % in the other. The complete takeover of both companies is not planned for the time being, but rather a kind of cooperation in which the various products are implemented across all three companies because they complement each other so well. This will create an ecosystem that can be expanded through possible further acquisitions.

Shoper

Shoper $SHO (+0,53 %) offers a platform based partly on a subscription model. With Shoper, companies can create their own online store. There is also the additional option of launching and managing advertising campaigns. In other words, a Polish equivalent to Shopify. In 2024, turnover increased by 26% to 192 million złoty. The net margin improved from 17% to 19%. The share price is currently 29 times the expected profit for this year. For Shopify it is 80 times. This raises the question of whether this valuation discount is justified and whether Shoper can continue to hold its own in the future.

Sources

[1]

https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/14410/umfrage/bruttoinlandsprodukt-bip-in-polen/

[2] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/227370/umfrage/anteile-der-wirtschaftssektoren-am-bruttoinlandsprodukt-bip-in-polen/

[3]

https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/160142/umfrage/arbeitslosenquote-in-den-eu-laendern/

[4] https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PLN-USD?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi7zeDfo92NAxWbhv0HHS0VPEUQmY0JegQIChAv

[5] https://de.investing.com/news/economy-news/polnische-zentralbank-erwagt-zinssenkungen-im-juli-oder-herbst-93CH-3000499