As already posted privately, at least this part is also public. Did some shopping today:

$CAT (+0.73%)

$MSCI (+1.8%)

$6501 (-0.13%)

$NDAQ (+0.7%)

$AVGO (+1.11%)

$WM (+0.6%)

$NOVO B (+0.6%)

In the last few days, there are apparently signs that the free fall is flattening out. We often see an area that is being approached again and is holding. So for me it was now time to initiate a new wave of buying :)

but: will it really turn now? We don't know... and who knows if the man on the other side of the Atlantic won't come up with something new

Have you ever wondered where the Gates Foundation invests its money? In the fourth quarter of 2024, the foundation has impressive holdings in its portfolio.

The foundation manages assets of around 42.02 billion US dollars and is one of the largest private foundations in the world. The main stocks include Berkshire Hathaway , Canadian National Railway and Microsoft .

Here is an overview of some of the largest holdings:

- Microsoft: USD 11.99 billion (28.54%) $MSFT (+1.55%)

- Berkshire Hathaway: USD 8.91 billion (21.20%) $BRK.A (+1.33%)
$BRK.B (+1.19%)

- Waste Management: USD 6.5 billion (15.48%) $WM (+0.6%)

- Canadian National Railway: USD 5.57 billion (13.24%) $CNR (+1.56%)

- Caterpillar: USD 2.67 billion (6.35%) $CAT (+0.73%)

These investments show that the Gates Foundation invests in both traditional and future-oriented companies.

What do you think of the Gates Foundation's investment decisions? Do you think they are backing the right horses? 📈

$RSG (+0.57%)
$WM (+0.6%)

The waste management company reported adjusted earnings per share of USD 1.58 for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of USD 1.41 by USD 0.17.

Sales amounted to USD 4.05 billion, just below analysts' forecasts of USD 4.08 billion, but 5.6% higher than in the previous year.

"We delivered another strong set of results in 2024, enabled by the effective execution of our strategy to meet the needs of our customers and grow the business profitably," said Jon Vander Ark, President and CEO of Republic Services.

For the full year 2024, Republic Services generated adjusted free cash flow of USD 2.18 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year.

The company distributed a total of USD 1.18 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks in 2024.

Republic Services issued a forecast for 2025 that is largely in line with Wall Street expectations. The company expects adjusted earnings per share of between USD 6.82 and USD 6.90 for the full year 2025, compared to the consensus estimate of USD 6.79. Revenue is expected to be between USD 16.85 billion and USD 16.95 billion.

The solid quarterly results and optimistic outlook underscore Republic Services' ability to deliver profitable growth despite economic challenges.

The company's focus on pricing initiatives and productivity improvements appears to be paying off, as evidenced by the 110 basis point expansion of the adjusted EBITDA margin to 31% in the fourth quarter.

Today, a new long-runner found its way into my portfolio. Away from the hype stocks, I am looking for steady performers such as $SYK (+1%)
$WMT (+0.26%)
$WM (+0.6%)
$MSI (-0.25%)
$AFL (+1.4%) ...

For me, 2024 was the most successful year so far, not only because I significantly increased my savings rate, but also because the portfolio performance took off for the first time.

In the past year, I also became much more aware of economic and political issues, which is probably due to my daily consumption of various podcasts on the way to work. The older you get, the more active and involved you feel in many areas.

I feel closer to the market than ever before... as soon as I skip a day, I have the feeling of being left behind. I'll have to think about whether this can still be counted as a feeling of a lack of routine or whether it's already addictive behavior. The user-friendliness of Getquin certainly also plays a role here. 😅

Well, now to the topic.

After another year of exceptional market returns and an impressive rally, the question is what can we expect from 2025?

In this article, I therefore summarize some key findings from recent publications by Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, for example.

I have bundled the content thematically, enriched it with additional sources and added my own comments. In my opinion, the reports provide a good basis for thinking about market opportunities and classifying current trends without going into too much detail. Ultimately, they also give me the feeling that I am well positioned with my own portfolio approach. It goes without saying that the personal assessments I include are not intended as investment advice.

Overview of the topics:

1 . Introduction: Optimism and market rally

2 . Causes of returns: Valuation and earnings growth

3 . Valuations and future returns

4 . Market concentration and global differences

5 . Megatrends and their impact

6 . Political classification and protectionist trends

7 . Growing fragmentation

8 . Investment estimates for 2025

9 . Personal approach

tl;dr

Hopefully the tl;dr is not too tl;dr - the short version today is also a bit extended in bullet points.

Strong market returns since October 2023:

• MSCI World index: +40% since October 2023 (approx. +60% since low 2022).
• S&P 500: One of the strongest rises since 1928, strongly influenced by optimistic expectations of falling inflation and interest rates

Driver of returns in 2024:

• Approx. 50% of returns in USA, due to valuation increases.
• USA: S&P 500 with high P/E ratio (28.5 vs. 10-year average 22.7).
• Japan: Returns driven almost exclusively by earnings.
• Emerging markets: Negative valuation trend, limited growth.

Regional differences and outlook:

• USA dominates the MSCI ACWI (65% weight) with strong concentration on a few tech giants ("Magnificent 7").
• Europe and China: Moderate earnings, less valuation growth.
• 2025: Earnings growth should be the main driver worldwide, e.g. S&P 500 (+11% forecast return) and Japan's TOPIX (+17% growth).

Megatrends and AI investments:

• AI-driven developments remain central (data centers, chips, infrastructure).
• Investments in AI could account for around 2% of US GDP by 2030 -> USD 700 bn.
• Productivity increases through AI promote cross-sector growth.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic influences:

• Increasing trade restrictions (protectionism), shift in trade routes (e.g. Suez Canal).
• Political uncertainties in the USA (e.g. possible deregulation, tax cuts under Trump).

Investment assessments:

• Overweight: US and Japanese equities, especially technology and healthcare sectors.
• Opportunities in emerging markets such as India and Saudi Arabia with moderate weighting.

Long-term changes:

• Megatrends such as digitalization, AI and ageing societies are permanently shaping the economy.
• Geopolitical tensions (USA vs. China) and fragmentation make forecasts difficult, but also offer opportunities.

____________________

• 1 . Introduction: Optimism and market recovery

Driven by optimism about inflation peaking and the prospect of a Fed pivot, the recovery began in October 2023. Since then, the MSCI World Index (see ex. $IWDA (+1.42%) ) alone has gained around 40% (and around 60% since the low point triggered by rising interest rates in 2022) [1].

The S&P 500 (cf. ex. $CSDX ) also had one of the strongest rises since 1928 in 2024 (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Rise in the S&P 500 in 2024 is one of the strongest since 1928

In the past, my investment strategy focused exclusively on individual shares. For the future, however, I have developed a more diversified strategy that includes both regular ETF investments and targeted individual share purchases.

My investment strategy 2025:

• Monthly ETF investments:

- 350 € in the FTSE ALL-WORLD $VWRL (+1.45%)

- 25 € in the FTSE INDIA $FLXI (+0.61%)

• Monthly individual share investments:

- 25 € Microsoft $MSFT (+1.55%)

- 25 € Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+0.6%)

- 25 € Waste Management $WM (+0.6%)

- 25 € McDonald's $MCD (+0.13%)

- 25 € ASML Holding $ASML (+2.7%)

-50 € Munich RE $MUV2 (+1.87%)

In addition, I build up my monthly cash reserve of €1,500/month to ensure financial flexibility.

• Reserve/liquidity:

Today was finally the day.

Just as I had long hoped and expected, $RSG (+0.57%) the smaller competitor of $WM (+0.6%) has temporarily managed to overtake its big rival on the charts 😁

Fingers crossed that this performance continues 😜 😃

A quick overview of the stocks I am trying to get into the portfolio for the coming week. The limit orders can be adjusted to the market. However, I will start with this on Monday morning

Fastenal - limit EUR 69.50 $FAST (+0.92%)

Coca Cola limit 58.50 EUR $KO (-1.01%)

Watsco limit 451,50 EUR $WSO (+2.89%)

Waste Management Limit 195.00 EUR $WM (+0.6%)

UnitedHealth Limit 490 EUR $UNH (+1.36%)

Philip Morris limit EUR 117 $PM (+0.55%)

Lockheed Martin Limit 460.00 EUR $LMT (-1.67%)

Iron Mountain Limit 100 EUR $IRM (+1.33%)

Have a nice rest of Sunday .

$ING (+2.19%) x1500 (no, not the ADR, but I can't get it marked properly right now)

... if they're already managing my securities account and collecting commission, they're welcome to give it back to me as a dividend. And lo and behold: I think I'll get more dividends next year than their commission 😉

$GOOGL (+0.78%) x100

... probably one of the div-growth stocks of the coming years. It's simply part of it. Previously it was also in my other portfolio. But since the transfer was too stupid for me there and the position was quite small, I'm just buying more.

$AFL (+1.4%) x200

...insurance in the broad area of health/retirement/etc. with the current main market in JP and the USA. I don't think you need to say any more about retirement provision in the broader sense in an ageing society. Currently rather low payout ratio for insurance/finance, but offers potential for growth and a higher div yield in the future

$WM (+0.6%) x100

... waste and recycling. Strongly positioned in this area in the USA. I've been annoyed for ages that I didn't get involved. Now I'm just going to get started.

$V (-0.65%) x30

... is part of div growth. Slow build-up, as expensive. Previously also held in my old portfolio.

$LIN (-0.14%) x50

... In my opinion, the market for industrial gases is an oligopoly; Linde is well positioned. Solid growth should be expected.

Out $VST (+4.24%) x250.

... 500 remains. The share has grown unexpectedly well. Take profits

$NEE (+0.04%)

... I didn't buy, but have a small position. In my opinion, a company with future potential, but which could possibly experience some turbulence/uncertainty in the next 4 years (Trump). I am therefore not buying, but I have it on my list to increase my position, probably starting next year. But maybe my 🔮 is wrong 😄