Today was finally the day.

Just as I had long hoped and expected, $RSG (+1.69%) the smaller competitor of $WM (+2.36%) has temporarily managed to overtake its big rival on the charts 😁

Fingers crossed that this performance continues 😜 😃

A quick overview of the stocks I am trying to get into the portfolio for the coming week. The limit orders can be adjusted to the market. However, I will start with this on Monday morning

Fastenal - limit EUR 69.50 $FAST (+1.31%)

Coca Cola limit 58.50 EUR $KO (+1.22%)

Watsco limit 451,50 EUR $WSO (+0.09%)

Waste Management Limit 195.00 EUR $WM (+2.36%)

UnitedHealth Limit 490 EUR $UNH (+1.6%)

Philip Morris limit EUR 117 $PM (+0.2%)

Lockheed Martin Limit 460.00 EUR $LMT (+1.22%)

Iron Mountain Limit 100 EUR $IRM (+0.89%)

Have a nice rest of Sunday .

$ING (-1.63%) x1500 (no, not the ADR, but I can't get it marked properly right now)

... if they're already managing my securities account and collecting commission, they're welcome to give it back to me as a dividend. And lo and behold: I think I'll get more dividends next year than their commission 😉

$GOOGL (+0.1%) x100

... probably one of the div-growth stocks of the coming years. It's simply part of it. Previously it was also in my other portfolio. But since the transfer was too stupid for me there and the position was quite small, I'm just buying more.

$AFL (+0.6%) x200

...insurance in the broad area of health/retirement/etc. with the current main market in JP and the USA. I don't think you need to say any more about retirement provision in the broader sense in an ageing society. Currently rather low payout ratio for insurance/finance, but offers potential for growth and a higher div yield in the future

$WM (+2.36%) x100

... waste and recycling. Strongly positioned in this area in the USA. I've been annoyed for ages that I didn't get involved. Now I'm just going to get started.

$V (+0.56%) x30

... is part of div growth. Slow build-up, as expensive. Previously also held in my old portfolio.

$LIN (+1.15%) x50

... In my opinion, the market for industrial gases is an oligopoly; Linde is well positioned. Solid growth should be expected.

Out $VST (-6.17%) x250.

... 500 remains. The share has grown unexpectedly well. Take profits

$NEE (-0.69%)

... I didn't buy, but have a small position. In my opinion, a company with future potential, but which could possibly experience some turbulence/uncertainty in the next 4 years (Trump). I am therefore not buying, but I have it on my list to increase my position, probably starting next year. But maybe my 🔮 is wrong 😄

$WM (+2.36%)

Good Morning!

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec 16, 2024-- WM (NYSE: WM) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 10.0% increase in the planned quarterly dividend rate for 2025, from $0.75to $0.825 per share. With this increase, the annual dividend rate will be $3.30 per share,€3.00 and marks the 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases for the company.

Depotupdate November - A successful month with a clear focus

November was a strong month, both in terms of returns and strategic realignment. The current portfolio value is 48.745,46 €with a solid monthly return of 6,86 %which corresponds to a price gain of 3.131,04 € . It is a further step towards a long-term and growth-oriented portfolio.

Activities in November: purchases and sales

Purchases:

S&P 500 $VUSA (-0.08%)
via savings plan

The regular savings plan with 930 € in the S&P 500 was executed as usual. This basis offers stability and long-term diversification in the portfolio.

Bitcoin $BTC (-4%)
The individual purchases with a value of 2.361,92 € reflect the conviction that Bitcoin will continue to gain in importance as an asset class in the long term. With a current weighting of 5,47 % it remains a tactical addition.

Sales:

Altria Group $MO (-0.57%)
The position was sold with a plus of just under 30 % which corresponds to a volume of 1.340 € corresponds to a volume of €1,340. The tobacco giant no longer fits in with the growth strategy, which focuses on innovative and future-oriented companies.

LVMH $MC (-1.69%)
This position was also sold, with a total value of 800 € and a loss of 280,74 €. Despite the quality of the company, the focus is now more on growth-oriented stocks, which is why LVMH no longer fits the strategy.

Portfolio structure and weighting

Security type weighting:

• 49.47 % ETFs - A stable anchor, particularly through the S&P 500.
• 45.05 % equities - The focus remains on individual stocks with potential for growth.
• 5.47 % Bitcoin - A small but increasingly relevant addition.

Top 5 sectors:

IT (25.19 %) - Driver in the portfolio, led by NVIDIA $NVDA (-1.71%) and Apple $AAPL (+0.05%)
Financial services (23.89 %) - Reliable returns with Allianz $ALV (+0.27%) and BlackRock $BLK (+0.13%)
Defensive consumer goods (16.05%) - Stability through P&G $PG (+0.51%) and Walmart $WMT (+0.48%)
Cyclical consumer goods (7 %) - Moderate exposure with potential.

Industrial goods (6.32%) - A diversifying addition.

Country allocation:

• USA (80 %): The dominant market in the portfolio.
• Germany (6.6%): Local stocks such as Allianz and Siemens.
• Other countries (5.54%): Global diversification.
• UK (1.08 %) and France (0.90 %): Smaller positions.

Deep Dive: The top 5 positions

NVIDIA (7.72 %):

Leader in AI development and graphics processors. NVIDIA remains the largest position and a key stock in the portfolio.

Allianz (6.16%):

A defensive anchor with stable dividends and strong market position in the insurance and wealth sector.

Apple (6.03%):

With a focus on services, wearables and technological innovation, Apple remains an essential holding.

Microsoft $MSFT (+0.13%)
(5,65 %):

Leader in cloud services and AI solutions. Microsoft remains a long-term favorite.

BlackRock (5.63%):

The world's largest asset manager benefits from rising capital inflows and remains a mainstay.

Top movers in November

Winner:

• Walmart (+15.55%): Convincing quarterly figures and strategic e-commerce expansion.
• Costco $COST (+0.37%)
  (+14,14 %): Solid performer thanks to strong member retention.
• P&G (+10.89 %): Resilience to crisis pays off.
• S&P 500 ETF (+8.38 %): Benefits from the general market upswing.
• Waste Management $WM (+2.36%)
  (+8,27 %): Stable income from a defensive business model.

Loser:

• Hercules Capital (-2.38%): The BDC specialist had a weak month. A strategic review of this position is imminent.

Conclusion and outlook

November was a very successful monthboth in terms of returns and the strategic realignment.

Key decisions:

• The focus remains on long-term growth through technology and quality stocks.
• The sales of Altria and LVMH show that the portfolio is being consistently adapted to the strategy.
• Hercules Capital is under review and could soon be removed from the portfolio as it no longer fits the growth strategy.

Long-term perspective:

With the savings plan and targeted individual purchases, the portfolio is running on "autopilot". The combination of patience, strategic adjustment and a clear focus on growth stocks strengthens the foundation for a successful future.

The portfolio remains on course - an exciting month with a clear direction!

Waste Management Q3 2024 $WM (+2.36%)

Financial performance

The company showed a solid financial performance, with net cash flow from operating activities of USD 3,879 million for the first nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to USD 3,337 million for the same period in 2023. This strong cash flow generation underlines the ability to secure ongoing operations and fund growth initiatives.

Balance sheet analysis

As of September 30, 2024, the company's total assets amounted to USD 34,730 million, an increase from USD 32,823 million at the end of 2023. This increase is mainly due to higher receivables and investments in property, plant and equipment. Current liabilities increased to USD 4,779 million, compared to USD 4,226 million previously, reflecting an increase in liabilities and the current portion of non-current liabilities.

Income statement

Revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 was USD 5,609 million, an increase from USD 5,198 million in the same period in 2023. Operating income also increased to USD 1,119 million compared to USD 1,021 million, demonstrating increased operational efficiency and cost discipline.

Cash flow analysis

The company generated free cash flow of USD 1,862 million for the first nine months to September 2024, compared to USD 1,552 million in the previous year. This improvement is due to higher net cash flow from operating activities and proceeds from divestments.

Key figures and profitability

The company's profitability is reflected in its ability to maintain a strong EBITA margin, which is indicative of effective cost control and pricing strategies. The net profit margin is also expected to remain robust, supported by increased sales and efficiency gains.

Segment analysis

The company operates in four reportable segments: East Tier, West Tier, Recycling Processing and Distribution and WM Renewable Energy. The Collection and Disposal segment continues to be the largest revenue driver, with the East Tier generating USD 2,242 million and the West Tier generating USD 2,138 million in net revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.

Competitive analysis

The company faces intense competition from government, semi-government and private players, especially in the residential customer business. The competitive landscape is heavily influenced by price and service offerings, with the company relying on its leading asset network and strategic investments in technology to secure an advantage.

Management forecasts and statements

Management is optimistic about growth opportunities driven by strategic investments in sustainability and renewable energy. The planned acquisition of Stericycle is intended to strengthen the environmental portfolio and expand the company's presence in the healthcare sector.

Risks and opportunities

The main risks include fluctuations in raw material prices, regulatory changes and economic conditions that could affect sales and margins. However, the company is well positioned to benefit from opportunities in the areas of recycling and renewable energies, supported by sustainability initiatives and technological advances.

Summary and strategic implications

The company is strategically focused on differentiation and continuous improvement, leveraging its extensive asset network to drive growth and improve the customer experience. The focus on sustainability and automation promises long-term benefits and positions the company as a leading provider of environmental solutions. Personally, I've been looking to get in for a long time, but somehow never dared to do so, so let's see when it's time.

Positive statements

• Robust Cash Generation: The company demonstrated a strong cash generation capability, with net cash flow from operating activities of $3,879 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $3,337 million in the prior year period.
• Revenue growth: Operating revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024 increased to USD 5,609 million, compared to USD 5,198 million for the same period in 2023, indicating solid revenue growth.
• Improved free cash flow: The Company generated free cash flow of $1,862 million for the nine months ended September 2024, compared to $1,552 million in the prior year, reflecting an effective cash management strategy.
• Segment performance: The Collection and Disposal segment remains a significant revenue driver, with the East Tier generating $2,242 million and the West Tier generating $2,138 million in net revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.
• Strategic investments: The company's strategic investments in sustainability and renewable energy are expected to drive future growth and strengthen its competitive position.

Negative statements

• Increased liabilities: Current liabilities increased to $4,779 million compared to $4,226 million previously, reflecting an increase in accounts payable and current portion of long-term debt, which could impact liquidity.
• Competitive pressures: The company faces intense competition from government, semi-government and private service providers, particularly in the residential customer segment, which could put pressure on margins.
• Regulatory risks: The company is exposed to regulatory changes that could affect its activities and financial performance, particularly in the areas of environment and sustainability.
• Commodity price fluctuations: Fluctuations in commodity prices pose a risk to sales and margins, particularly in the recycling and renewable energy segments.
• Economic conditions: Fluctuating economic conditions, including inflation and interest rates, could create uncertainty in the financial forecast and impact business performance.

Earnings next week 🚀

$AMZN (-0.42%)

$AMD (-5.12%)

$SOFI (-3.03%)

$MSFT (+0.13%)

$AAPL (+0.05%)

$META (-1.64%)

$GOOGL (+0.1%)

$INTC (-1%)

$PYPL (-0.97%)

$LLY (+1.75%)

$F (-1.55%)

$SNAP (-1.21%)

$CMG (+0.21%)

$COIN (-4.07%)

$UBER (-2.96%)

$BP. (-1.43%)

$MCD (-0.42%)

$HOOD (-2.5%)

$PFE (-1.13%)

$V (+0.56%)

$NOVA (-12.18%)

$ETSY (-2.81%)

$ON (-6.49%)

$FUBO

$PTON (-4.47%)

$TMDX (-5.81%)

$FSLR (-4.12%)

$RIOT (-6.29%)

$ROKU (+4.81%)

$RCL

$CVNA (-1%)

$CVX (+0.7%)

$CAT (-1.07%)

$HUM (+0.52%)

$CDNS (+0.39%)

$SBUX (-0.13%)

$WM (+2.36%)

$NXT

$THC

$JBLU (+0.98%)

$CROX (-1.88%)

$XOM (-0.5%)

$MRK (-1.33%)

$RDDT (-0.01%)

$PHIA (+0.14%)

$VFC (-0.67%)

$RIG

$COP (-0.33%)

$EPD

$RMBS (-0.86%)

Unpopular trades Part XXI

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Were sold:

$AAPL (+0.05%)

Apple is overvalued in my opinion, no longer particularly innovative and while the debt is rising, the equity continues to fall. I could of course be wrong, but then I would still have one position less in my portfolio (54) and in the end I still have a lot of Apple thanks to the ETFs.

$IBM (-0.97%)

$WM (+2.36%) 🥹

$HPQ (-0.39%)

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Rheinmetall was purchased $RHM (+5.22%)

Time for a little update 🧐

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From the original 77 positions, there are now 57 left.

Many well-known, large companies that were considered safe have left my portfolio and some have been replaced by more speculative stocks. 😜

Not all of the stocks included are long-term investments, as I have a few trades that have not yet been completed or that I have just entered into. These are among others: $PAH3 (-1.1%)
$3EML (-2.89%)
$GKP (+0.59%)
$MC (-1.69%)
$RKH (-7.85%)
$PYPL (-0.97%)
$HSY (-0.82%)

If all my trades were closed immediately, I would probably already be under 50 positions.

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Where I still have concerns:

The Magnificent Seven. I have them all except $META (-1.64%) and I wonder whether this is wise, as they are already heavily weighted in my ETFs. On the other hand, these very stocks have performed well. That's why I only recently invested in $AMZN (-0.42%) and am thinking about getting Meta. 🤯

I'm particularly torn when it comes to $TSLA (-1.12%) Tesla. I bought Tesla because of Elon, Musk and all his promising projects. But in hindsight, I'm increasingly of the opinion that Tesla shares only benefit the carmaker and that it's no longer that interesting because the competition is getting better, faster and cheaper, for example $1211 (-1.78%) . Meta, on the other hand, could remain very interesting for the next few years.

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More unpopular thoughts:

Maybe I got in too early at $ASML (-2%) too early, 738€. Didn't wait for the bottom to form or for a reversal signal. I will definitely be more cautious in the future, especially with stocks that have already had a long profit history and are therefore at risk. That large investors/institutional investors realize profits after price slumps and this then leads to even greater price slumps.

Waste management $WM (+2.36%) very popular (hype?), fundamentally quite solidly positioned, moat available (I believe it is a duopoly in the USA) and with increasing population and consumption the future prospects should also be given. But will Waste Management deliver anything extraordinary besides a good return and a rising dividend? I don't think so and the business is neither scalable nor high-margin. Therefore, this could be one of the next candidates to be shot down.

Financial freedom with the waste brand is within reach 💪😂