Waste Management $WM (-0.47%) is the third largest position in my portfolio with approx. 4.5%... and I feel quite comfortable with that.

The Q1 figures came out on 29.04. I have categorized the figures for myself.

With this post and my general classifications, I am also trying to provide a good, comprehensible overview to give all "shareholders" or future shareholders an adequate insight and ensure an understanding of the company.

SourcesQ1 Report [1] and Earnings Call [2]

WM presents a strong Q1, with double-digit sales growth and a solid operating performance. However, earnings per share are lower despite record sales. Find out why this is not necessarily a bad sign here. Have fun!

📊 ESTIMATES VS. REPORTED

📊 Q1 figures at a glance

• Turnover6.02 billion $ (+16.7 %)
• Adjusted EBITDA1.72 billion $ (+12.2 %)
• Adjusted EPS1.67 $ (previous year: 1.75 $)

Why is sales growing strongly but EPS falling?

In the first quarter of 2025, WM reported adjusted EPS of $1.67, compared to $1.75 in the previous year, despite a +16.7% jump in sales, does that sound alarming at first? But it's not...

1 . The Stericycle takeover has a double effect: (more context later)

Sales increase because Stericycle is now fully included in the balance sheet ($619m sales in Q1).

At the same time, however, costs are also rising:

• Interest payments on new debt that was used for financing
• Amortization of the purchase price
• One-off integration costs (e.g. system conversions, personnel)

All of this has a negative impact on earnings per share, even though the new division is already profitable.

2 . Special tax effects & discontinuation of subsidies

• In the previous year, WM benefited from tax credits for alternative fuels, which expired in 2025.
• This explains part of the decline compared to the strong Q1 2024.

3 . Higher capital costs put pressure on free cash flow

• Even though operating cash flow remained solid ($1.21 billion), free cash flow was only $475 million, leaving less room for buybacks or earnings growth.

Conclusion so far: The falling EPS is not a warning signal, but a consequence of...

• strategic growth (acquisition),
• temporary integration costs,
• expiring tax benefits and
• increased interest rate environment.

In the long term, EPS should improve again significantly as soon as synergies from the Stericycle integration and new RNG/recycling plants take effect.

🚛 What is the traditional core business doing?

The so-called legacy business includes:

• Collecting, transporting and disposing of waste
• Customers: Cities, households, companies
• Service: Planning, logistics, landfills, disposal & recycling

Q1 2025:

• Turnover5.40 billion $
• Adjusted EBITDA1.62 billion $
• EBITDA margin: 30 % (Q1 2024: 29,6 %)
• EBITDA growth: +5 % YoY

Growth driver:

• Core pricing +6.5 %
• Cost optimization:...

COO John Morris:

"We reduced operating costs for the sixth consecutive quarter, now at 60.5% of sales."

The reason for this:

• Focus on employee retention & process automation
• Route planning & resource deployment improved through digital tools
• Residential margin at 20% for the first time in 6 years due to targeted withdrawal from low-margin customers
• Withdrawal from residential (private households):

• A lot of effort, low margin
• Focus now on commercial & industrial = better cost/income ratio

Comment (COO John Morris):

"This was the fourth quarter in a row with a 30% margin and that despite a difficult basis for comparison and winter influences."

WM is concentrating on quality rather than volume, more income through targeted pricing and a focus on high-margin customers.

💊 WM Healthcare Solutions Stericycle takeover: between waste and medicine, WM reorganizes itself

WM acquired Stericycle, the leading provider of medical waste disposal, for $7.2 billion in 2024.

The business is less cyclical, fast-growing and in a regulated market.

Q1 2025:

• Turnover619 million $
• EBITDA95 million $
• EBITDA margin: 15,3 %

• Margin improvement compared to Q4 2024: +20 basis points
• Target synergies: $80-100 million in additional EBITDA by the end of 2025
• Target synergies: USD 250 million annually by 2027 (ongoing savings + efficiency gains)

-> e.g. through joint administration, logistics, location optimization

Comment (CEO):

"Our customers value our digital environmental platform and nationwide network - a clear competitive advantage."

♻️ Recycling & Renewable Energy

• Recycling: WM sorts & sells raw materials such as paper, plastic and metal
• Renewable Energy: Recovery of biogas (RNG) from landfills

Q1 2025:

• Combined EBITDA contribution18 million $
• Ø price for recycled raw materials88 $/ton (previous year: 84 $)
• Positive increase, but still below previous highs (e.g. 2022: approx. 120 $)

An EBITDA contribution of $18 million compared to total EBITDA of $1.72 billion?

That sounds vanishingly small? I asked myself the same question...

Why the amount seems low, but still fits

1 . Recycling & Renewable Energy are capital-intensive, long-term oriented

• These areas require high investments in advance (e.g. plants, automation, RNG projects).
• The returns come over years, not in the first or second quarter.

2 . Growth still in the start-up phase

• Many plants (especially RNG) are still under construction or have recently come online.
• CEO Jim Fish said: "8 new RNG plants are currently under construction, all of which are scheduled for completion in 2025."
• The full EBITDA impact will therefore only unfold later.

3 . Recycling margins are heavily dependent on raw material prices

• Prices for recycled raw materials were $88/tonne in Q1, which is well below previous highs (e.g. 2022: $120).
• Ergo: fluctuating contribution to EBITDA, but not a structural problem.

4 . Benchmark: 20% growth YoY

• EBITDA from Recycling & Renewable Energy increased by >20% compared to Q1 2024 .
• The trend is therefore positive, even if the absolute figure appears small.

➡️ It is a growing business area with long-term potential. EBITDA contributions will increase in the next quarters & years as soon as new plants are up and running.

💰 Further financial figures

• Adjusted EBITDA margin (total): 28.5% (previous year: 29.6%)
• Free cash flow: $475 million (previous year: $714 million)
• Investments in sustainability128 million $
• Cash position216 million (end of 2024: $414 million)

Further voices from the earnings call:

CFO Devina Rankin on financial strategy & risks

• Free cash flow in Q1 as planned: $475 million
• CapEx at $831 million, focus on sustainability & fleet ramp-ups
• Customs risks lowas WM pre-produced equipment at an early stage
• Share buybacks further paused, focus on deleveraging
• Leverage ratio: 3.58x, target by the end of 2025: ~3.15x

"Despite interest burden and investments, we are fully on track - operational strength and synergy potential remain intact."

CEO Jim Fish emphasized:

"I'm proud of the fact that we've become a predictably strong performer, quarter after quarter, over the past few years."

He sees WM in a strong strategic position, particularly thanks to three drivers:

• Growth in the core business (Collection & Disposal)
• strong contribution from Stericycle
• Sustainable investments in recycling & biogas (RNG)

Particularly exciting:

• The automated recycling centers achieved EBITDA margins twice as high as non-automated plants.
• 2 new plants went online in Q1, with 7 more to follow by the end of 2025.
• 8 new RNG plants are under construction, all with high yields and progressing according to plan.

"Our sustainability strategy is working, these projects are delivering strong, growth-oriented EBITDA."

The call once again showed how operational fine-tuning, automation and acquisitions go hand in hand and underlined the following points:

• Technology and pricing secure margins
• Sustainability is more than a buzzword, it delivers profit
• Stericycle brings new potential that is structurally anchored

P/E ratio & current valuation (personal assessment, no investment advice)

Current level: ~ 34,49

In recent years: between 25-30

➡️ the current P/E ratio signals that the market believes WM will continue to enjoy stable growth and security.

Are there any special effects in earnings that distort the P/E ratio?

Yes, the ones already mentioned. Nevertheless, explained again:

1 . EPS (earnings per share) is currently falling slightly due to:

• Interest costs due to Stericycle financing
• Depreciation & integration costs
• Elimination of tax credits for alternative fuels

➡️ This means:

• The "G" in the P/E ratio is currently under pressure, but not structurally weakened
• The P/E ratio appears artificially higher because earnings are temporarily lower

➡️ The current high P/E ratio is explainable and temporary

• WM remains a defensive quality stock with strong cash flow
• Not a bargain, but a solid investment for long-term strategists
• If you think long-term (3+ years, you will find a company with a clear strategy & growth path here

🔮 Conclusion & outlook

WM remains a fundamental long-term runner with vision.

Although the Stericycle financing is putting pressure on EPS and cash flow in the short term, the focus on high-margin areas, sustainability and healthcare opens up long-term potential.

• Positive: Strong legacy business, successful entry into healthcare disposal

• NeutralEPS slightly down, cash flow temporarily under pressure

• RisksInterest costs, margin pressure in recycling, political uncertainty regarding sustainability

My conclusion: WM delivers structurally, those who think long-term will find stability and perspective here.

I remain invested, position will not be increased for the time being.

________________

Thank you for reading 🤝

________________

Sources:

[1] https://investors.wm.com/static-files/00de6f79-f0b6-4b6a-af79-9e5f892c73f5

[2] https://investors.wm.com/static-files/9db3d0d5-0c4d-47fa-aab1-f0bf71a86859

_______________

$WM (-0.47%)
$RSG (+0.29%)
$WCN (-0.06%)
$CLH (-0.12%)
$CWST (+0.83%)

Waste Management Inc.$WM (-0.47%) ) slightly missed analysts' expectations in the first quarter of 2025, which led to a 1.6% decline in the share price after trading hours. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were USD 1.67 (expected: USD 1.69) and revenue was USD 6.02 billion (expected: USD 6.15 billion), although revenue still increased by 16.7% compared to the previous year.

Key findings

• EPS: USD 1.67 (below expectation of USD 1.69)
• Sales: USD 6.02 billion (below expectation of USD 6.15 billion)
• Sales growth in core business: 4.7
• Price increases in core business: 6.5
• Contribution from WM Healthcare Solutions: USD 619 million in sales, USD 95 million in operating EBITDA

Corporate performance

WM achieved solid growth in its core business, driven by disciplined price increases and efficiency measures. The newly integrated Healthcare Solutions segment made a significant contribution to sales and EBITDA growth. The operating margin of the core business remained stable at 30% and operating EBITDA increased by 6% to USD 1.62 billion.

Financial highlights

• Operating cash flow: USD 1.21 billion
• Free cash flow: USD 475 million
• Investments in sustainability projects: USD 128 million

Outlook & forecast

Waste Management confirmed its outlook for the full year 2025 and emphasized the resilience of its business model and the successful integration of new business areas. The company remains on track to achieve its strategic and financial targets.

Statements from the management

CEO Jim Fish emphasized the strong implementation of the strategic priorities and underlined the sustainable growth strategy as well as the value contribution of the Stericycle acquisition.

Risks & challenges

• Slight earnings shortfall could weigh on the share price in the short term
• Integration of Healthcare Solutions poses operational challenges
• Cost increases could impact margin potential

Atlas Copco $ATCO B (+0.18%)

BAE Systems $BA. (-2.62%)

Rollins $ROL (-0.16%)

Cintas $CTAS (-0.84%)

Waste Management $WM (-0.47%)

Parker Han$PH (-0.02%)

Which companies do you see as particularly promising for a long-term investment?

I think it's about time. But not for an all-in, because 🍊 is unpredictable 😄

Also bought:

$AMZN (+0.25%) (x2) $GOOGL (+0.16%) (x2) $NVDA (+0.05%) (already a few days ago) $DELL (+0.33%) (x2) $PG (-0.53%)

x2 means a few days ago and today.

At the top of the list are $NEE (-0.2%)
$WM (-0.47%)
$ORI (-0.16%)
$PANW (-0.23%)
$HD (+0.2%)

PS: my crystal ball says it's time, because we've now approached a zone twice. But whether this is actually a first indicator of a positive outlook... who knows...

Do you believe the reallocation of $O (-0.19%) and $WM (-0.47%) (approx. €2,500 together) to $IWDA (+0.19%) would be worthwhile at the current price?

Such days also offer the opportunity to tidy up your portfolio, reallocate one or two positions and focus more on quality

The first quarter of 2025 is over. In March, real assets recorded declines, both in equities and ETFs and especially in cryptocurrencies. The markets have become increasingly volatile. While many are panicking, I have been enjoying the first signs of spring, hiking and continuing to winter bathe diligently.

For the past month of March 2025, I present the following points:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

There was a considerable setback in March, and not just in equities. The reason for this is the customs issue, on which I have already formulated my thesis, which many believe to be correct. To summarize briefly: Markets are being depressed to get investors into bonds, which lowers bond yields and allows US debt to be refinanced at a lower interest rate. After the refinancing of short-term US government bonds, the tariffs are put into perspective and the next upswing follows, which Trump can boast about. Whether this assumption is correct remains to be seen. However, it would make sense in the long term to slash US spending. Even if the D.O.G.E. does a good job, you can't cut everything without incurring the displeasure of the population.

A look at the depot shows the front-runner $AVGO (+0.78%) and its companion $NFLX (-0.14%) both currently only 150% up, despite a significant setback. I am unimpressed by this development, as the capital market is always facing worse times, which will be followed by better ones. According to André Kostolany, it is now the "shaky hands" that are significantly triggering the sell-off. Yes, change your perspective: the red sign in your portfolio is irrelevant, now is the time to buy more. Enormous overvaluations in tech stocks have been reduced and they may now be available at a fairer price. There are also attractive defensive value stocks on offer, ideal for a dividend portfolio.

Second and fourth place in my individual share portfolio are still occupied by $WMT (-0.05%) and $SAP (+0%) . Walmart can now prove that it acts as a stable anchor in the portfolio even in bad times. In sixth place is a stock that I did not expect to be in the top 10. Like me, many of you have shares in $WM (-0.47%) but the stock I am looking for is its competitor: $RSG (-0.06%) . I have been watching the rise of this stock even before the pressure from Trump and I am happy about it. This is an example of a defensive stock. Garbage collection is necessary and Republic Services, like Waste Management, will literally turn garbage into gold for shareholders 50 years from now. Anyone complaining about their portfolio being down 50% probably has too much tech and too little defensive. My overall portfolio currently stands at around -12%. That's OK in the current macro environment.

Which brings us to the subject of performance: $NKE0 and $DHR (-0.15%) returned around -39% at the end of March.

➡️ ETFs

They are also recording significant losses. It is important to remain calm and continue investing. Such phases are part of the game. I will not repeat further details.

➡️ Distributions

In March, I received 31 distributions on 15 payout days. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up such additional income.

This time, the distributions from my three large ETFs were not made on March 31, but in the first few days of April. This means that there should theoretically be 34 distributions. Numerous corrections and cancellations of dividends from REITs were not taken into account. With $O (-0.19%) , $OHI (-0.81%) , $LTC (-0.16%) and $STAG (-0.15%) there were therefore some cancellations and new dividend distributions. Although this was a major bureaucratic effort, it was usually a cause for celebration. This is because the REITs initially distribute dividends from current net income. If there are then corrections in the following year, it is determined that a distribution is also made from the already taxed retained earnings. This subsequently reduces the company's tax burden and I have noticed that I pay less capital gains tax and solidarity surcharge. So more cash in my pocket for reinvestment.

➡️ Cashback

In March, I received a small amount of income from an expense report, which I invested directly in my custody account. More on this under subsequent purchases.

➡️ Subsequent purchases

The additional purchases were financed from the expense report and, above all, from the bonus paid out by my employer. I am grateful for this, as my employer is not doing well at the moment.

I made numerous additional purchases in several ETFs that are in my small old portfolios. I invested smaller sums $GGRP (+0.03%) , $JEGP (-0.81%) , $SPYW (+0.93%) , $FGEQ (+0.05%) and $SPYD (+0.27%) and bought a larger sum in shares of the $IWDP. On the last Friday in March, I checked my portfolio and realized that, despite careful use of the surplus, there was more cash left than I had expected. I therefore made a small additional purchase in the $VNA (+0.13%) . For me, Vonovia (like the REITs) is a kind of hedge against my own rising rent.

➡️ P2P loans

With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there were no interest or redemption payments. I still intend to withdraw all funds where released. I would even accept a full write-off to get out of the platform. The remaining amount is no longer relevant to me.

➡️ Crypto

Crypto investors continued to experience significant volatility in March. The double top predicted by some does not seem to be materializing and the indicators do not currently point to a steep rise. I am studying the charting and the macro environment for crypto, although I still have a lot to learn here. Patience and calm are still required. I am sticking to my cycle strategy, the macro situation confirms me, so there is no need for me to take any action.

➡️ And what else?

I'm currently deepening my knowledge of AI. The posts on my Instagram channel that I published in March (and others that will follow in April) were created with the help of AI. I explained my approaches, beliefs about finance and the frugal lifestyle, and my goals to AI. The AI then created suggestions for Instagram posts, including prompts and allowing for a week break at the end of the month.

There is still a lot for me to learn. I am using AI more and more intensively and deeply in my professional and private life. While colleagues are happy that an AI can write emails for them, I use it much more extensively, for example to have technical content and its effects on departments and companies explained to me at work or to have economic relationships explained to me in my private life. In addition to ChatGPT, I particularly like Grok by X, as this AI always asks questions and thus enables a fluid conversation. The AI doesn't just reproduce facts, but also evaluates my ideas and classifies them, for example whether I should already use part of my nest egg to buy more quality stocks at favorable prices. Her suggestion was perhaps to wait until after the refinancing of short-term US government debt, when there might be less downward volatility in the market. This recommendation is based on my thesis mentioned above.

March was also a month of fasting for me, not for religious reasons, but because I want to and always intend to. I like to use the time after fasting to change my habits, adjust my diet and vary my sports units and routines. For me, this is particularly easy after fasting - the time afterwards generally feels like a new beginning.

➡️ Outlook

In April we will continue to see negative signs in the portfolio. I have now placed a limit order, which I hope will be triggered. The annual electricity bill is also due. I'm curious to see how much will be returned, the refund will certainly go into the custody account. It will also become clear whether I will increase my discount due to higher electricity costs. Until then!

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also take a look at the Instagram version of my review.

All these shares have one problem, you are not the only one who has this thought and that is why they are rarely good value😊, when I built up my position over the last 3 years, there was practically no opportunity to add them to my portfolio at a lower price, yet I continued to buy them and made my purchase price even more expensive.

That's one of the mistakes you can make as an investor, and I've made it too, only adding to positions that are in the red and neglecting the supposedly expensive positions that are doing well.

As already posted privately, at least this part is also public. Did some shopping today:

$CAT (-0.17%)

$MSCI (-0.51%)

$6501 (+0.17%)

$NDAQ (-0.06%)

$AVGO (+0.78%)

$WM (-0.47%)

$NOVO B (+0.68%)

In the last few days, there are apparently signs that the free fall is flattening out. We often see an area that is being approached again and is holding. So for me it was now time to initiate a new wave of buying :)

but: will it really turn now? We don't know... and who knows if the man on the other side of the Atlantic won't come up with something new

Have you ever wondered where the Gates Foundation invests its money? In the fourth quarter of 2024, the foundation has impressive holdings in its portfolio.

The foundation manages assets of around 42.02 billion US dollars and is one of the largest private foundations in the world. The main stocks include Berkshire Hathaway , Canadian National Railway and Microsoft .

Here is an overview of some of the largest holdings:

- Microsoft: USD 11.99 billion (28.54%) $MSFT (+0.2%)

- Berkshire Hathaway: USD 8.91 billion (21.20%) $BRK.A (-0.04%)
$BRK.B (+0.01%)

- Waste Management: USD 6.5 billion (15.48%) $WM (-0.47%)

- Canadian National Railway: USD 5.57 billion (13.24%) $CNR (-0.13%)

- Caterpillar: USD 2.67 billion (6.35%) $CAT (-0.17%)

These investments show that the Gates Foundation invests in both traditional and future-oriented companies.

What do you think of the Gates Foundation's investment decisions? Do you think they are backing the right horses? 📈