Verizon

From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in my custody account

Part 2 of X:

After a long road through the valley of tears: how buying MasterCard shares ended up
changed everything - This is probably the best way to describe the next stage of my investing life. After discussing my first steps on the stock market in the first part and realizing that I'm not the next Warren Buffett and that I've made just about every rookie mistake, after three years everything should finally be getting better, right? Unfortunately, that wasn't the case in 2017 and 2018. In fact, everything only got worse.

(Part 1: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV) - Thank you for all the positive feedback!

Baseline & Spoilers:

From 2013 to 2016, I did a dual study program and earned a small salary every month. As I was still living at home, I was able to save and invest around €30,000 during these three years. I also added around € 5,000 in capital gains and dividends. My portfolio balance at the end of 2016 was therefore around €35,000. Despite my poor stock selection, this was a sum I could be happy with as a 23-year-old.

Now let's jump forward 24 months: at the end of 2018, I had a portfolio balance of around €40,000, just a measly €6,000 more than two years earlier. In these two years, there were additional price losses of €3,500. In other words, I had managed to lose €600 on the stock market in 5.5 years, while the S&P 500 gained over 50% in the same period - a remarkable (negative) achievement! Only dividends of over € 3,000 in these 5.5 years led to a positive return on the bottom line.

But now let's take a look at what went so massively wrong in 2017 and 2018.

Personal income situation:

After I completed my Bachelor's degree at the end of 2016, I knew that I didn't want to stay with my training company. There was a strong focus on sales, which I personally never wanted to do. I therefore left the company and decided to make a new career start in my early or almost mid-20s.

Before my studies, I really wanted to go into investment banking in New York, but after my studies I suddenly didn't know what I actually wanted to do: "self-employed would be cool", "do I do another Master's", "do I study something completely different again?" - these were my thoughts at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. As I was registered as unemployed during this time, I had to keep going to job interviews, which were more or less forced on me by the job center. These were mandatory, as otherwise the money could have been cut (times before the citizen's allowance 😉). My highlight was a job interview at Vorwerk, and I'm not kidding: for an open position as a vacuum cleaner salesmanwho is allowed to move from door to door.

In mid-2017, I was then offered a job in a completely different area that had absolutely nothing to do with my bachelor's degree in business administration and started all over again. I received around €600-700 in unemployment benefit for 9 months and then only a trainee salary of €800-900. Fortunately, I was able to continue living with my parents and invest around €200-300 in ETF savings plans every month. However, I was only able to save around €2,000 in total in 2017.

A few weeks went by and I quickly realized that I was once again not happy with my new professional situation. So I knew I had to leave again. This time, however, I didn't want to just quit and turn up at the job center again. So I forced myself to keep going until I had something in hand. The subject of a Master's degree came up again. But it was also by chance that I got in touch with my former employer.

Long story short: At the beginning of 2018, after 1.5 years, I signed a new contract with my former employer (DAX company), albeit not in a sales role, but in head office/administration. Even though the salary increased significantly, this involved moving to another city. In addition to the rental costs, I also had to furnish an apartment. As a result, there was not much room for investment in the stock market in 2018 either. In total, "only" €5,000 was invested in 2018.

Portfolio performance:

As already mentioned, 2017 and 2018 were an absolute flop in the portfolio. No significant investments and a lousy performance.

In hindsight, it's no wonder: at the time, my portfolio consisted of price rockets such as Hugo Boss $BOSS (+0.51%)
Deutsche Bank $DBK (-1.71%)
Macy's $M (+1.82%)
AT&T $T (-0.14%)
Verizon $VZ (-0.62%)
or Daimler $MBG (-0.07%) .

I was still convinced that tech and co. were far too expensive - I only bought what had a low P/E ratio and a (high) dividend yield. From a dividend perspective, that was great: in 2017, I received over €1,000 in dividends for the first time. I won't reach this mark again until 2020.

However, it also became clear to me that dividends are of little use if there are share price losses on the other side. On average over the two years, my return was a meagre ~2.5%. That was still more than was available on the call money account at the time - today such a return would hurt even more. But you don't have to sugarcoat it either: The performance was forgettable.

Bright spots:

But it wasn't all bad either: I took my first steps into crypto in the fall of 2017. Back then, there was a lot of Bitcoin hype for the first time. I had no idea about it yet, so I bought a participation certificate via the stock exchange as normal. I made a profit of almost €500 in just under three weeks. After that, the hype quickly died down again and I didn't get involved with Bitcoin and co. until the next hype in mid or late 2020.

If I had continued at the end of 2017 and bought Bitcoin regularly, my wealth would probably be a lot bigger today.

All in all, I can look back on the year
2017 but I can also defend myself a little bit: The performance in 2017 was around +7%, which was roughly in line with the performance of the MSCI World (+8%). Only the S&P 500 was significantly stronger at +20% (Trump and his "America First" policy have already had an impact here).

The year 2018 was not a good year on the stock markets overall, and most indices closed in the red. Nevertheless, my decline was greater than that of the S&P 500 and the MSCI World.

There were a number of negative factors in 2018, such as risks from the trade war between China and the USA, Brexit and global economic concerns. All of this was reflected in share prices, particularly in the final trading days of 2018. Once again, a shutdown was on the cards in the US because no agreement could or would be reached on raising the debt ceiling. Within a few days from mid-December, prices fell by 5-6%. This was the main factor behind the extremely poor performance over the two years.

The turning point:

Even though December 2018 was a bad month for the stock markets, in hindsight it was extremely good for me and my portfolio. In December 2018, I bought MasterCard $MA (-0.34%) and that was the turning point in my investing career.

I realized that my strategy (low P/E ratio, high dividend) would lead to nothing and discovered more and more the topic of "dividend growth" for me. MasterCard was the first stock to enter my portfolio that was in line with my new strategy.

Instead of a low P/E ratio of less than 10, the P/E ratio was suddenly over 30 and the dividend well below 1%, but growing strongly - just like sales and profits. A clear difference to companies like Macy's, Daimler and Hugo Boss in my portfolio.

My financial situation also improved significantly over the course of 2018. My net salary was around €2,500, and even though I had to pay rent and other costs, it became clear that I would be able to invest more again from 2019.

Asset development & return:

As described, the two years were too forgettable - but the learnings and my strategy change in hindsight extremely important for my future investing life.

Year
Deposit value
Return

2017 39.000€ +7%

2018 41.000€ -10%

Vermögensentwicklung 2016-2018:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2018:

Outlook:

I had arrived professionally and was ready to build up a completely new strategy in my portfolio. Everything was ready for 2019! And everything should finally get better in 2019. But there will be more big mistakes in the next part (Wirecard, corona hype, China), but above all there will finally be successes!

In part 3, I will discuss the years 2019 to 2021. We will then break the €100,000 mark and even come close to reaching €200,000.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in a custody account

Part 1 of X (let's see how many there will be): The new Gordon Gekko? Between Chinese small-cap recommendations from stock market letters and "AT&T is better than Amazon" (2010 - 2016)

(Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

Previous story:

Inspired by @DonkeyInvestor I would now like to share my story and continue it if there is interest. Thanks for the cool idea!

My investment journey began about 2-3 years before my first securities purchase in 2013. While the financial crisis (2007-2009) only interested me marginally as a ~15-year-old, the emerging euro crisis from 2010 onwards aroused a much greater interest in the economy, sovereign debt and co. As part of some school work, I dealt with the debt crisis in Greece, among other things.

Through films like Wall Street or Margin Call - The Great Crash slowly sparked my interest in the stock market. With my first smartphone in 2012, I was able to secretly check share prices during lessons - which often led to the teacher confiscating it 😂 I primarily followed the prices of "cool" shares such as Daimler, Hugo Boss and Sony.

I grew a desire to become an investment banker myself and emigrate to Wall Street in New York (spoiler: neither happened 😉).

The first purchases:

My first purchases were made under contradictory circumstances. I was firmly convinced that a major crash was imminent (government debt, interest rate policy, ...) and was very convinced by well-known crash prophets such as Dirk Müller.

Nevertheless, I wanted to play along and bought my first shares.

In 2013, I started my dual business studies at a global bank. When I started my studies, I finally made my first securities purchases. On the one hand, my capital-forming benefits went into the DWS Top Dividende, and on the other, I set up an ETF savings plan on the DAX. In 2014, I added further shares such as AT&T $T (-0.14%) Verizon $VZ (-0.62%) Shell $SHEL (-0.74%) and Sony $6758 (+1.35%) were added. While Sony was a great investment, I unfortunately sold the stock far too early. My purchase price was around €12 and I sold at around €18. If I hadn't sold Sony, it would have been a tenbagger at times.

My main investment criteria at the time were

- Low P/E ratio

- High dividend yield

- And/or "cool" company

So in 2014 I had to choose between Amazon $AMZN (+0.26%) ("cool, but no dividend & much too high P/E ratio") and AT&T ("high dividend, low P/E ratio"). And, of course, the decision sucked with today's knowledge.

Another company was Macy's $M (+1.82%) . When I was in New York and visited the largest shopping center in the world, I was sure I had to have this stock.

The only two stocks I still have in my portfolio from my early years are Procter & Gamble $PG (-1.24%) (bought in 2015) and Unilever $ULVR (-1.44%) (bought in 2016).

In 2016, I had a total of 14 individual shares in my portfolio, 12 of which were sold in the following years and will probably never end up in my portfolio again.

The first lesson:

After I realized professionally that the path to investment banking and New York was probably not the right one after all (40 hours of work is really exhausting, I don't need 80 or more in investment banking), I slowly realized that I wasn't the next Gordon Gekko or Warren Buffett either.

It was too boring for me to just invest in shares - after all, I wanted to get rich quick and drive a Porsche! So from 2014, I also started investing in other things (no, unfortunately not crypto).

I tried my hand at various certificates, reverse convertibles and the like, all with little success. The biggest learning I had was with an absolutely hot tip from the internet. It was a classic pump and dump game from a stock market letter. Someone had stocked up on shares in a Chinese small cap (Tianbao Holdings) and then called on everyone to buy: "Share with the chance of a 10,000% return - forget Apple and co." It was advertised like this or something similar at the time.

I took my entire monthly salary (around €800) and thought to myself: get in! It didn't matter what the company was doing or why the opportunity should be so great! At first things went up and I was quickly up 20%. Then it went downhill - the initial investor had probably made his return and withdrawn the money. The stock exchanges quickly realized this and stopped trading. I tried to sell the shares on various stock exchanges and was able to get rid of them in Berlin, Bremen or somewhere else - with a loss of 50%. Two weeks of work for nothing. Although it was "only" a loss of €400, it really annoyed me. Not just the loss, but that I fell for something like that.

In hindsight, the €400 was extremely well invested and helped me a lot in my future investment career.

Asset development & return:

How did the first 3-4 years on the stock market go and how did my assets develop?

Year Deposit value Return

2013 2.000€ -12%

2014 8.600€ -1%

2015 17.000€ +4%

2016 35.000€ +14%

All in all, these were lost years for me in terms of returns. You can also see this from the green line, which was mostly in negative territory.

The stock markets did very well, and yet I mostly only saw losses or very low returns.

Conclusion & outlook:

So in 2016 it was clear to me: no investment banking, no New York, I'm not the new Warren Buffett and I'm not going to get rich overnight.

In the following 3 years from 2016 to 2019, I built on my initial experiences and slowly developed into a better investor. Nevertheless, more big mistakes followed (Bitcoin, Wirecard, ...).

#strategy
#personalstrategy
#etfs

Earnings next week 🗓️

$SAP (-0.03%)

$NUE (+0.42%)

$VZ (-0.62%)

$GM (+1.81%)

$MMM (+1.06%)

$RTX (-0.37%)

$GE (+1.41%)

$ENPH (+6.64%)

$TXN (-0.01%)

$VRT (+2.61%)

$BA (-0.46%)

$T (-0.14%)

$KO (-0.4%)

$NEE (+1.64%)

$GEV (+2.49%)

$TMO (+0.81%)

$TSLA (-4.58%)

$LRCX (+0.38%)

$IBM (-0.87%)

$NOW (+1.32%)

$TMUS (+0.18%)

$AAL (+0.56%)

$UPS (+0.66%)

$LUV (+0.47%)

The enemy of the best is often the good.

I have these ETFs in my portfolio:

$TDIV (+0.29%)

$GGRP (-0.09%)

$FUSD (+0.25%)

$FGEQ (+0.06%)

Some, if not all, have outperformed the MSCI World at times.

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At the moment they are all about the same weighting and should be increased further. While I am trying to implement a growth strategy with equities, these ETFs are intended to generate passive income.

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Objectively speaking, I would have to sell the $FUSD (+0.25%) as it further increases the US share and overlaps heavily with at least two of the other ETFs. In other words, it reduces diversification in all respects.

But on the other hand $FUSD (+0.25%) also the one with the best past return and will probably remain so in the future.

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One approach could be to take the US weighting and overlaps into account in the ETF weighting of the portfolio and implement it as follows, for example:

$TDIV (+0.29%) 40%

$GGRP (-0.09%) 30%

$FGEQ (+0.06%) 15%

$FUSD (+0.25%) 15%

If the ETFs were weighted in this way, the following allocations would result:

Countries/Regions:

USA 56.4%

Canada 4.4%

Europe 33.2%

Asia 5.4%

Top 10 weighting:

$MSFT (-1.05%) 3%

$AAPL (+1.34%) 3%

$VZ (-0.62%) 2,3%

$CVX (+0.4%) 2,1%

$ROG (+0.46%) 2%

$NVDA (+2.01%) 1,9%

$PFE (+1.49%) 1,7%

$HSBA (-0.91%) 1,6%

$IBM (-0.87%) 1,4%

$AVGO (+0.31%) 1,4%

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What do you think of this allocation example? Do you have any suggestions for improvement or comments?

First purchase from Verizon
$VZ (-0.62%)

P/E ratio below 10,

rising profits,

rising dividend (>6%)

EUR 168 bn market cap

Verizon is a major player in the global telecommunications industry. The company plays a critical role in providing communications services to millions of customers (primarily) in the United States.

The ongoing expansion into new technologies and developments, such as 5G and IoT, makes Verizon an important player in this sector.

Verizon's core businesses:

WirelessVerizon offers a wide range of wireless services, including voice, data and Internet services. The company is known for its high-performance networks and innovative technologies.

Landline: In addition to wireless, Verizon also offers landline services, including Internet, television and telephony.

Enterprise customersVerizon is a major provider of communications solutions for businesses of all sizes.

Since I'm the dividend daddy, I used the reset to increase my position. This is not about performance, but about a reliable, decent dividend. The figures were really not as bad as the 6% setback today suggests.

What we can expect from tomorrow:

Monday:

• SAP ($SAP (-0.03%)) Verizon, Communications ($VZ (-0.62%)) Ryanair Holdings ($RYAAY),
• Truist Financial ($TFC (+0.73%)) report figures

Tuesday:

• Existing property sales (June)
• Alphabet ($GOOGL (+0.94%)), Tesla ($TSLA (-4.58%)), Visa ($V (-0.14%)), Coca-Cola ($KO (-0.4%)), GE Aerospace ($GE (+1.41%)), Comcast ($CMCSA (+1.11%)), United Parcel Service ($UPS (+0.66%)) report figures

Wednesday:

• S&P Global Flash Composite U.S. PMI (July)
• New real estate sales (June)
• Advance International Trade (June)
• Advance retail inventories (June)
• Advance wholesale stocks (June)
• Thermo Fisher Scientific ($TMO), IBM ($IBM (-0.87%)), ServiceNow ($NOW (+1.32%)), AT&T ($T (-0.14%)) report figures

Thursday:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q2)
• Durable goods orders (June)
• FigVie ($ABBV (+1.12%)), AstraZeneca ($AZN (+1.05%)), Union Pacific Corp ($UNP (+0.81%)), Unilever ($UL (-1.35%)), Honeywell International ($HON (-0.75%)) - report figures

Friday:

• Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index (June)
• Consumer Sentiment (July)
• Bristol Myers Squibb ($BMY (+0.75%)), Colgate-Palmolive ($CL (-1.99%)), 3M ($MMM (+1.06%)) report figures

+++ Quarterly figures next week+++

Looking forward to:

$SAP (-0.03%)

$VZ (-0.62%)

$KO (-0.4%)

$SPOT (+0.22%)

$TSLA (-4.58%)

$GOOGL (+0.94%)

$V (-0.14%)

$TXN (-0.01%)

$IBM (-0.87%)

$WM (-0.32%)

$1211 (-0.27%)

$ULVR (-1.44%)

$MMM (+1.06%)

what about you?

Opinion on the purchase?