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$ELF (-0.44%) - Because it also reflects my opinion ✌️
Goldman Sachs with buy recommendation for $ELF (-0.44%) Target price USD 165; "One of the fastest growing and most disruptive players in the beauty space"
"We view ELF as one of the fastest growing and most disruptive players in the beauty space. The company's continued market share gains and growth momentum stand in sharp contrast to the slowing trends in the beauty category, particularly among mass retailers such as $TGT (-0.34%) , $WMT (-2.1%) and $ULTA (+0.22%)
As such, we expect the company to continue to deliver healthy sales growth driven by a disciplined, disruptive innovation strategy and breakthrough marketing techniques that resonate well with core Generation Z consumers. We see further upside internationally and believe the importance of this opportunity is underestimated. Our analysis suggests that one point of market share gain in the seven focus markets of $ELF (-0.44%) could increase ELF's sales growth by 4 percentage points.
In addition, we expect ELF's steady increase in EBITDA margin to translate into an EBITDA CAGR of over 20% (FY24-28), which should comfortably support EPS growth in the low to mid-20s. Finally, we believe that the current valuation of $ELF (-0.44%) is attractive given its strong fundamentals, which should lead to a further re-rating from current levels."
After a period of increased investment in its digital infrastructure, ULTA is back to focusing on expanding its physical store presence, increasing their stores investments as a percentage of total capital expenditures from 55% in 2022 and 2023 to 70% long-term.
Take a look at its historical ROE. For the trailing 12 months, this figure comes out to 55%, and the five-year average is 46.9%. Generally, an ROE over 20% is considered to be very high in that industry.
The company has also achieved this high level of ROE without the use of much debt.
Earnings per share: $22.60-23.50 (estimate: $25.26)
Sales: $11.0 billion to $11.2 billion. (Estimate: 11.495 billion US dollars)
Key figures and performance:
Net sales growth Q2 2024: +0.9% YoY
Comparable sales growth Q2 2024: -1.2% YoY
Gross margin: 38.3% (decrease of 100 basis points compared to the previous year)
Operating result: USD 329.2 million (decrease from USD 391.6 million year-on-year)
Net income: USD 252.6 million (down from USD 300.1 million in the previous year)
Selling and administrative expenses: USD 644.8 million (increase compared to USD 600.7 million in the previous year)
Inventory: USD 2.0 billion (increase of 10.1% compared to the previous year)
Operating highlights:
New store openings: 17 in Q2; 29 for the full year
Share buybacks: 549,852 shares for USD 212.3 million in Q2
Total number of stores: 1,411
Comment from CEO Dave Kimbell:
"Our second quarter performance was not in line with expectations due to a decline in comparable store sales. We are taking steps to counteract these trends and continue to focus on increasing sales and customer traffic."