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Billion-dollar robotaxi market: Pony.ai as the secret favorite?
👋 Hello dear Getquin community,
Anyone who has followed my last posts will know that I have already addressed the topic of robotaxis. Today I would like to follow up on this and add an update. This time with a special focus on $08X (-1.1%) Pony.ai. I have not yet presented this company in detail, although it is one of the most exciting players in the global competition.
🌏 The exciting thing about Pony.ai is its dual role. Officially, the headquarters are in Guangzhou, China, while Fremont in California serves as an important research and development location. So you could say that Pony.ai has two centers: China as the operational base with the major test sites and approvals, and the US as the tech hub for development and partnerships. However, the real growth is happening in China. Pony.ai has the largest test areas there, the first permits for driverless robotaxis and strong industry partners. China is pushing the topic of robotaxis on a massive scale with the aim of becoming the world market leader in autonomous driving by 2030. This is precisely why the greatest market potential is currently not in the USA, but in China.
$08X (-1.1%) (CN) Pony.ai as an up-and-coming player in the field of autonomous robotaxis with strong roots in China
$TSLA (+3.46%) (US) Tesla with ambitions in autonomous driving, so far more pilot projects than fleet deployment
$GOOGL (-1.02%) (US) Waymo as a tech pioneer with first large-scale deployments in US metropolitan areas
📊 Market & outlook
Pony.ai currently operates over 300 robotaxis in Chinese tier 1 cities and has over 200 7th generation vehicles in production. The target is 1,000 robotaxis by the end of 2025 and 10,000 units in the medium term. Studies predict a market potential of USD 183 billion in China by 2030 - a huge growth market for all providers.
🏙️ Comparison of the players in the robotaxi market
Pony.ai: approx. 300+ vehicles in China, target 1,000 by 2025
Waymo: approx. 2000 vehicles in US metropolitan areas
Tesla: pilot projects so far, no real robotaxi fleet
👉 Impact: Pony.ai is already in practical use before Tesla and is developing into a serious competitor to Waymo.
📌 Take-away
The battle for supremacy in the robotaxi market is on. Whoever achieves economies of scale and overcomes regulatory hurdles first will secure the platform and thus recurring revenue streams. Pony.ai is one of the most exciting candidates here. Still risky, but with a clear plan towards profitability.
You can find out more about investing in robotaxis and autonomous driving here:
👉 Question for you: Do you believe that Pony.ai will achieve its growth targets and become one of the leading providers in the global robotaxi market by the end of the decade or will a tech giant like Google or Tesla end up overrunning the Chinese competition?
Source: UBS market study, company information Pony.ai, chinadaily.com
Picture: Photo: AlinStock/shutterstock
Dexterity decides the future of humanoids
👋 Hello dear getquin community,
First of all, I would like to thank you for your great support, including the many new followers. I am very pleased that my topics are so well received here and that the topic of humanoid robotics is getting so much attention. I would also like to thank everyone who has already contributed to my last posts, because your thoughts and discussions are really driving this exciting topic forward. @Multibagger
@Tenbagger2024
Today I'm focusing on a topic that Elon Musk recently described as the biggest challenge for humanoid robots: hands and gripping systems.
🔍 Focus: robot hands & gripping systems
I took a look at why hands are so complex for humanoid robots and read the research report from Nature Machine Intelligence under the microscope:
👉 Embedding high-resolution touch across robotic hands (Nature, 2025)
The study shows: Advances such as the F-TAC hand with high-resolution touch sensors are a huge step forward. But there are still 5 major challenges remain:
Tactile feedback / real "fingertip sensitivity" is often missing.
Mechanics vs. sensor integration / narrow design vs. flexible fingers.
Algorithms & data / Real-time control remains difficult.
Durability / Robot hands are often still too fragile.
Costs / Complex hands are extremely expensive.
🦾 Who is already working on this today?
Here is an overview of listed companies that play a role in the "hand problem":
⚙️ Actuators & Precision Gears
$6324 (-4.66%)
Harmonic Drive (JP) - Precision gears, almost standard in robot hands
$6481 (+0.85%)
THK (JP) - Linear guides & actuators
$6273 (+1.58%)
SMC Corp. (JP) - Mini actuators, pneumatics
👁️ Sensors & touch
$6861 (+1.06%)
Keyence (JP) - Force & vision sensors
$CGNX (+1.72%)
Cognex (US) - industrial image processing
$STM (-1.65%)
STMicroelectronics (FR/IT) - MEMS & pressure sensors
✋ Gripping systems & end effectors
$ABBN (+0.51%)
ABB (CH) - Industrial robots with gripping modules
$6954 (+1%)
Fanuc (JP) - Integrated grippers in robot platforms
$(Private, but important: Schunk, Festo - market leader for grippers)
🤖 End applications / developer of humanoid robots
$TSLA (+3.46%)
Tesla (US) - Optimus with focus on functional hands
$Neura Robotics (DE,private) - Cognitive humanoid robots with hand research
Agility Robotics (US, private) - humanoid robot "Digit" with gripping ability
Here is the full humanoid robot investment report
📌 Take-Away
Without functioning hands, humanoid robots remain limited. The combination of precision mechanics, sensor technology and control is the key and this is where there are exciting investment opportunities from Harmonic Drive to Tesla.
👉 Question for you: Do you think that in the next 5 years we will see robot hands that really achieve human dexterity or will this remain a dream of the future for even longer?
Image: © riko2022 - stock.adobe.com
IREN - Secured Power Advantage
$IREN (-10.25%)
$META (-1.13%)
$MSFT (+0.54%)
$NBIS (-0.81%)
$EQIX (+0.69%)
$DLR (+0.11%)
ein toller Beitrag von $IREN (-10.25%) auf x (Jim Liu) weshalb ich ihn hier teilen möchte, wirklich sehr gut geschrieben.
A fair skeptical question I’ve been asked on $IREN (-10.25%) is: If $IREN (-10.25%) overplays their hand, could hyperscalers can simply say, “Forget it, we’ll build ourselves.”? The answer is that hyperscalers are definitely acquiring power and building datacenters themselves but that’s still not enough; I will go into detail.
Projections for power shortfalls by 2030, 2035 are huge but seem far into the future, so let’s use 2028: by 2028 there will be a 36GW shortfall (1) (sources provided by number in comments). A general shortfall number seems hand wavy so let’s look at what this shortfall actually means.
1. The first misunderstanding is the assumption that if the all the tech CEOs and US government is aware about this problem then US will fix the shortfall within 1-2 years, after all the US is still the most powerful nation on earth. Well the upper bound for quickly building infrastructure is China. China is adding 290 GW to their grid in 2025 (2). 290 GW is a massive number right? Who needs 3GW from $IREN (-10.25%) when China can add 290 GWs in one year? Well 290 GWs is peak generation - sources like window, solar are intermittent and cannot sustain peak capacity and batteries only smooth out the power curve, not generate more power. With batteries and base generation to smooth it out and accounting for transmission losses, the effective continuous load supplied will be 22% of the peak generation or to 65GW (3). Now 65GW is still alot, so what’s the deal with 3GW? Well you see, the 65GW that came out in 2025 was planned in China’s 14th 5-year plan (4). Although China’s 14th 5-year plan was announced in 2021, the work needed to meet deadlines started in 2017/2018. Now this 65GW was due to their high projections in heavy industry and manufacturing, EVs, air conditioning, etc. China is the country to over builds infrastructure to maintain employment numbers, this is where high speed rail operates at a loss and prime real estate in Tain Fu District Guangzhou to fall 40% due to overbuild. However, in 2018, China never accounted for AI HPC. Even with manufacturing demand and EV adoption slower lower than projections and extra GW allocated to AI HPC, China still faces a shortfall of power for AI HPC (5). Let’s face it, the US builds infrastructure much slower than China, this is not a 2-3 year solvable problem. Even if small nuclear reactors ($OKLO ) first come out in 2028, it will take at least 1-2 years for them to ramp up to fully supply the shortfall.
2. Hyperscalers will never put their GB300s on the Chinese grid for obvious reasons. The 36GW shortfall is for the American grid. So what’s happening in North America? Hyperscalers are trying some uncertain projects like $MSFT (+0.54%) Three Mile Island restart scheduled for 2028 (6) and small modular reactors. Now geeze, $MSFT (+0.54%) has plenty of time until 2028, if one of it’s best plans to get more power in 2028 is to restart Three Mile Island, what kind of plans does it have for 2026 or 2027? $NBIS (-0.81%) 300MW of IaaS is not going to be enough to fulfill demand. You hear that Meta is getting very serious about its AI ambitions. It announce it’s 1GW Ohio DC called Prometheus. Closer inspections shows that the 1GW DC will be powered by Two 200MW natural gas facilities coming up in Q3 2026 and 440MW of solar (7). Solar has a capacity factor of 18%. Meta’s 1GW Hyperion DC has ~480MW of power at this time. You see the short fall? $META (-1.13%) announces it’s 2027 Hyperion DC to have 1.5GW IT Load (2.26GW of generation to get 1.5GW of IT Load), but upon closer inspection the first two gas turbines are expected to come online in 2028 and the third is expected to come online 2029 (8). Now 2028 is actually pretty fast for 2.26GW, how did Meta even secure the deal? It’s paying 3.2B extra for the gas turbines that will be to be owned by Entergy (9) on top of paying all the regular costs for the DC power. If $META (-1.13%) is paying 3.2B of extra cost for 2.26GW in 2028/2029, how much would 2.2GW in 2026 (Childress + SW1) and 3GW by 2027 for $IREN (-10.25%) be? With With xAI’s 1GW Colossus 2 is coming out in 2026, is Meta going pray that it can fill in the power gap for it’s Prometheus, or chill out until late 2028 when Hyperion is ready?
3. In NA, there were $64 billion of DC blocked or delayed in 2024/2025 (10) because the grid simply doesn’t support that much and people don’t want their electricity bills going up. So that’s pushing GPUs DC’s to two hot areas: energy abundant areas like West Texas and behind the grid gas turbines. West Texas is under Ercot and BTC miners taken all the early power capacity area since 2017 and have queue up the power pipeline to 2030. Crusoe and Lancium contracted out its power to Oracle and OpenAI. Everyone else is bragging about their power pipeline in West Texas but there’s not enough power as Ercot will deny over half of power pipelines between now and 2030 (11). IREN does not disclose its power pipeline rumored to be 5-6GW (12) and only public announces the 3GW with interconnect agreements.
4. Now what about gas turbines behind the meter? Isn’t that what xAI did for Colossus 1/2 and what DataOne did for $NBIS (-0.81%) ? Well gas turbines have a wait time of 5-7 years (13). Colossus took their gas turbine from abroad, disassembled it and then is rebuilding it in Mississippi (14). I love $TSLA (+3.46%) mission but let’s be real here: Europe/Japan/China aren’t in excess of power plants and Elon conveniently omitted where the gas turbines came from: it probably came from a 2nd/3rd world country who sold out their infrastructure with the byproduct being their people’s suffering. This isn’t really scalable. DataOne is a spin out as BSO’s GPU data center division who have been in the datacenter business since 2024. DataOne/BSO like $IREN (-10.25%) had the foresight to procure long lead-time items.
5. So now the question is: what does it mean for $IREN (-10.25%) to over play their hand? Has CPU datacenter operators like $EQIX (+0.69%) ($75B), $DLR (+0.11%) ($55B), and many similar sized privately owned operators like BSO overplayed their hand? Why doesn’t AWS, GCP, Azure build more of it’s own datacenters instead of let $75B and $55B market cap “middle-men” develop? The GPU datacenter operator space will undoubtedly be larger than the CPU datacenter operator space and $IREN (-10.25%) will be 2-3x larger than $EQIX (+0.69%) and $DLR (+0.11%) once it’s said and done. And that’s if $IREN (-10.25%) doesn’t move up the software stack.
Sources:
(1)https://x.com/sectorsignals/status/1873257677595484382?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(3) https://makayda.com/blog/what-is-capacity-factor
(4)https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-14th-five-year-plan/
(9)https://lailluminator.com/2025/08/20/entergy-meta/
(10) https://www.datacenterwatch.org/report
(11)https://x.com/umbisam/status/1968272986584351104?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(12)https://x.com/fransbakker9812/status/1964911703059238927?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
Thanks for sharing anyway.
Robotaxi cooperation causes Lyft share price to explode
Shares in $LYFT (+0.86%)
are in high demand. In pre-market trading in the US, they soared by a whopping 30 percent. Background: Google's parent company Alphabet wants to launch its Waymo robotaxi service next year in collaboration with the ride-hailing company in Nashville. This would be the first commercial use of Waymo's driverless cabs in the Lyft network, which also wants to invest in a facility to maintain Waymo vehicles. Waymo is thus increasing the pressure on rival Tesla, which launched its own robotaxi service in Austin in June. Lyft shares recently traded 14 percent higher.
Took some off the table – rest after rate cuts
Let’s see where it goes tomorrow $TSLA (+3.46%) 🚀
Reallocation
Swingtrade from $TSLA (+3.46%) closed at +17% and shifted to $QBTS (+0.85%) shifted to
Let's see if they grow as nicely as IREN (+116%) and BTFS (+40%)
I could get used to it😅
Gambling is fun.
Just found out about derivatives a few days ago.
I am aware of the risks and that 90% of people loose money trading them BUT I've had success so far!
Bought $TSLA (+3.46%) with about a 90x leverage for 20€ this morning and thanks to Elon buying a bunch of stocks it shot up 500%.
Maybe sold a bit early but you never know!
This stuff is fun, just don't play with big money.
I'll keep the limit at 50% of the profits.
Tesla news
Elon Musk just bought 1.9M shares of $TSLA (+3.46%) on the open market for the first time since 2020.
He spent ~$736M at prices between $371–$396.
If Elon is loading up, maybe he sees the next big S-curve ahead.
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