A good month despite last week downtrend.

This month, a part from the usual savings plans, I will increase my position in $LDO (+0.4%) and start a little position in $TTWO (+1.6%) . By the end of next month I will probably start a position in the semiconductors sector.

What do you think?

$TTWO (+1.6%)

🔹 Net Bookings: $1.58B (Est. $1.55B) 🟢; +17% YoY

🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.08 (Est. $1.12) 🔴

Full-Year Outlook:

🔹 Net Bookings: $5.9B–$6.0B (Est. $7.8B) 🔴

🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.45–$2.70 (Est. $6.87) 🔴

🔹 GAAP Revenue: $5.95B–$6.05B

🔹 GAAP Net Loss: $(499)M to $(439)M

🔹 GAAP EPS: $(2.79) to $(2.45)

🔹 EBITDA: $508M–$562M

🔹 Operating Cash Flow: ~$130M

🔹 CapEx: ~$140M

Q1'26 Outlook:

🔹 Adjusted EPS: $(0.78) to $(0.65) (Est. $(0.78)) 🟡

🔹 Net Bookings: $1.25B–$1.30B (Est. $1.28B) 🟡

🔹 GAAP Revenue: $1.35B–$1.40B

🔹 EBITDA: $114M–$136M

🔹 GAAP Net Loss: $(139)M to $(115)M

🔹 GAAP EPS: $(0.78) to $(0.65)

Other Key Q4 Metrics:

🔸 Net loss includes $3.55B goodwill impairment and $176M in acquisition-related charges

🔹 Recurrent Consumer Spending: +14% YoY; 77% of total Net Bookings

🔹 Operating Expenses: $4.58B, including impairment and reorganization charges

Top Game Contributors (Q4 + FY25):

🔸 NBA 2K25 and 2K24

🔸 Grand Theft Auto V and Online

🔸 Civilization VII

🔸 Red Dead Redemption 2 and Online

🔸 Toon Blast, Match Factory!, Empires & Puzzles, WWE 2K25

🔸 Hyper-casual mobile portfolio

Strategic & Product Pipeline Updates:

🔸 CEO expects record Net Bookings in FY27 with GTA VI launch

Strong pipeline across labels, including:

🔸 Civilization VII (June 5) on Switch 2

🔸 Mafia: The Old Country (Aug 8)

🔸 Borderlands 4 (Sep 12)

🔸 NBA 2K26, WWE 2K26

🔸 GTA VI (May 26, 2026) on PS5/Xbox Series X|S

🔸 WWE 2K Mobile (Netflix), CSR 3, Judas, Project ETHOS

CEO Commentary:

🔸 “Our Fiscal 2026 outlook reflects continuing positive momentum, with Net Bookings guidance of $5.9 to $6.0 billion. As we bring our exciting lineup to market, including Grand Theft Auto VI in Fiscal 2027, we expect to achieve record levels of Net Bookings that will establish a new baseline for our business and set us on a path of enhanced profitability.”

$CDR (+9.32%)
$TTWO (+1.6%)

Hey everyone,

I just checked my stocks and $CDR (+9.32%) was leading with an >8% gain which I was not able to explain by notable news concerning CD Projekt (except maybe GTA 6 delay leading capital moves to CDPR - but why not Embracer or so?), so digged a bit deeper:

Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of CD Projekt's 8% Stock Rise on May 2, 2025

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the 8% rise in CD Projekt's stock price on May 2, 2025, addressing the observation of the lack of relevant news and the stock's deviation from usual fluctuations. The investigation leverages financial data, market trends, and investor sentiment to uncover potential drivers, acknowledging the complexity and uncertainty where direct evidence is limited.

Background and Context

CD Projekt S.A., a Polish video game developer known for titles like The Witcher series and Cyberpunk 2077, is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange under the ticker CDR. The company reported strong financials for 2024, with sales revenues of 985.0 million PLN, EBIT of 365.5 million PLN, and net profit of 469.9 million PLN, reflecting a robust 48% profit margin. This performance, detailed on their investor relations page (CD Projekt Investor Relations), likely set a positive backdrop for investor confidence. However, the specific 8% rise on May 2, 2025, occurred without any apparent major news, prompting a deeper investigation.

Investigation Methodology

The analysis began by searching for news articles, financial reports, and announcements from May 2, 2025, using financial news platforms like Yahoo Finance (CD Projekt S.A. (CDR.WA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance) and Investing.com (CD PROJEKT SA Stock Price Today | WA: CDR Live - Investing.com). No specific news or corporate announcements were found for that date, leading to an exploration of broader market trends, historical stock volatility, and social media sentiment. The Warsaw Stock Exchange's performance was also reviewed using platforms like TradingEconomics (Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Index - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News), though specific daily data for May 2, 2025, was not readily available.

Potential Drivers of the Stock Rise

Strong 2024 Financial Performance

• CD Projekt's 2024 financials, with a market capitalization crossing 25 billion PLN (the highest since February 2021, as noted on CD Projekt (WSE:CDR) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St), likely continued to attract investors. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of 4.70 and a dividend yield of 0.43% (CD PROJEKT SA Stock Price Today | WA: CDR Live - Investing.com) reinforced its financial stability, potentially driving the stock higher even without new catalysts.

Anticipation of Upcoming Projects

• The company has highly anticipated projects, including The Witcher 4 and a sequel to Cyberpunk 2077. While no announcements were made on May 2, 2025, investor optimism about these future revenue drivers, as highlighted in forecasts showing 37.4% earnings growth and 33.8% revenue growth per annum (CD Projekt (WSE:CDR) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St), likely contributed to speculative buying. This anticipation is a common driver for gaming stocks, given their high-growth profile.

Broader Market Sentiment

• Global markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, saw gains on May 1-2, 2025, driven by strong earnings from tech giants like Microsoft and Meta, boosting AI and tech-related stocks. CD Projekt, as a tech-adjacent gaming company, likely benefited from this positive sentiment. While specific Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG) performance for May 2, 2025, was not found, year-to-date data showed a 24.06% increase (Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Index - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News), suggesting a favorable market environment.

Speculative Trading and Technical Factors

• CD Projekt's stock has a history of volatility, with a loss ratio of 4.11 indicating significant downside risk, as noted in analyst reports. An 8% rise without clear news could be attributed to speculative trading, momentum-driven buying, or short covering. The stock's valuation crossing 25 billion PLN may have triggered technical breakouts, attracting momentum traders who focus on price trends rather than fundamentals, as seen in historical data from CD PROJEKT Stock Price History - Investing.com.

Lack of Negative News and Investor Sentiment

• The absence of major negative news on May 2, 2025, may have allowed positive sentiment to dominate. Investors often interpret the lack of bad news as a reason to buy, especially for high-growth companies like CD Projekt. Social media searches on X for "CD Projekt stock May 2025" yielded no results, suggesting limited public discussion, but this does not rule out private investor forums or unverified rumors driving the movement.

Analysis of Unusual Fluctuations

The user noted that the 8% rise seemed slightly above usual fluctuations, which aligns with CD Projekt's volatile stock history. Analyst concerns, as seen on CD Projekt (WSE:CDR) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St, suggest the stock may be slightly overvalued, with an intrinsic value estimated at 218.17 PLN compared to a market price of 223.8 PLN. This overvaluation, combined with the lack of news, raises questions about whether the rally was fundamentally driven or speculative, potentially setting the stage for future corrections.

Comparative Market Context

To contextualize, the Warsaw Stock Exchange was open on May 2, 2025, following a closure on May 1 for Labor Day, as per trading hours listed on GPW Trading Hours & Market Holidays [2025]. While specific daily performance data was not found, the overall market trend in 2025, with a 24.06% year-to-date increase for the WIG index, suggests a bullish environment that could have amplified CD Projekt's stock movement.

Table: Key Financial Metrics for CD Projekt (FY 2024)

| Metric | Value (PLN) |

| Sales Revenues | 985.0 million |

| EBIT | 365.5 million |

| Net Profit | 469.9 million |

| Market Capitalization | 25 billion |

| EPS | 4.70 |

| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |

Critical Perspective and Investor Caution

While the rise can be attributed to a combination of factors, the lack of transparency around specific catalysts suggests potential speculative bubbles, common in gaming stocks. Investors should be cautious, as such spikes can precede sharp corrections, especially given the stock's high-risk profile and potential overvaluation. The absence of X posts or news articles for May 2, 2025, further supports the hypothesis that the movement was driven by market sentiment rather than concrete developments.

Conclusion

The 8% rise in CD Projekt's stock on May 2, 2025, appears to be driven by a mix of strong 2024 financials, anticipation of future projects, broader market gains, and speculative trading, given the lack of specific news. While no single factor fully explains the movement, the evidence leans toward a combination of investor optimism and market dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor future earnings reports, scheduled for May 28, 2025 (CD PROJEKT SA Stock Price Today | WA: CDR Live - Investing.com), for further clarity on the stock's valuation and growth trajectory.

$TTWO (+1.6%) has officially delayed Grand Theft Auto VI to May 26, 2026, pushing the release nearly a year beyond the original fall 2025 window. This news led to a notable drop in TTWO stock as GTA is the company’s most important franchise and a major revenue source. Take-Two’s leadership explained the decision, highlighting the need to ensure the game meets high standards. Despite the setback, the company expects strong net bookings in fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

The next earnings call, scheduled for May 15, should provide more details on their outlook