🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 — Futures indicate a decisive surge, with the market attempting to recover losses from last week's banking sell-off.

$DJ30 — Futures in a solid rise, showing generalized risk-on sentiment.

$NSDQ100 — Futures are strongly up, with tech leading the market rebound.

💻 Tech & Growth Snapshot

$NVDA (+0.01%) — Up (0.55%), the stock is leading the semiconductor sector, confirming strong AI demand.

$GOOGL (-0.01%) — Up (0.19%), the stock joins the positive Nasdaq trend.

$AVGO (+0.02%) — Up (0.53%), the semiconductor sector benefits from renewed optimism.

$META (+0.34%) — Up (0.48%), showing a strong recovery after recent weakness.

$MSFT (+0.06%) — Up (0.36%), the stock regains momentum with positive sentiment.

$QBTS (+3.52%) — Strongly up, quantum computing sentiment has turned positive amid the tech rebound.

$RGTI (+0.34%) — Up sharply (3.08%), the quantum sector actively participates in the risk-on move.

$TSM (+2.27%) — Up sharply (2.43%), boosted by optimism in the semiconductor sector.

🛍️ Retail & Commerce

$AMZN (-0.48%) — Up (0.80%), strong pre-market recovery, led by tech.

$BABA (-0.42%) — Down (-0.57%), counter-trending Western tech, affected by Asian uncertainties.

$CVNA (+1.42%) — Up (0.57%), the stock gains ground following the broader market trend.

$SHOP (+0.61%) — Solidly up, retail tech is driven by the general risk-on mood.

⚕️ Health & Pharmaceutical

$LLY (+0.18%) — Up, tracking the general market rebound.

$HIMS (+3.03%) — Stable (0.00%), the stock is steady after last week's volatility.

$INSM (+1.06%) — Stable (0.00%), the biotech sector cautiously joins the rally.

🇪🇺 Europe

STOXX 600 — Opening solidly up, in line with global optimism.

GER40 — Decisively higher, the German market regains momentum.

$LDO (+2.7%) — Stable (0.00%), the defense sector is neutral in this rebound phase.

$$IBE (+0.97%) — Stable (0.00%), utilities are static in a risk-on environment.

$OKLO — Up sharply (1.73%), advanced nuclear technology continues its positive trend.

🏦 Banking & Finance

$$UCG (+1.2%) — Stable (0.00%), Italian banks are trying to establish a base after heavy selling.

$$ISP (+1.13%) — Stable (0.00%), awaiting clearer signals.

$$BAMI (+2.01%) , $CE (+0.45%) , $BPE (+3.07%) — Stable (0.00%), the financial sector shows caution despite the risk-on trend.

$$BBVA (+2.76%) — Stable (0.00%), the Spanish stock is leading the European banking recovery.

$AXP (+0.04%) — Up (0.59%), the payments sector participates in the rebound.

$V (+0.1%) — Up (0.07%), confirming its positive tone.

🌏 Asia

$JPN225 — Close in a solid rise, led by optimism in tech markets.

$KOSPI — Close up, Korean tech drives the index.

$HK50 — Up, tech stocks recover despite BABA's uncertainties.

$CHINA50 — Up, following positive global sentiment.

💱 Forex

$EURUSD — Up, the Dollar is losing momentum in a risk-on phase.

$GBPUSD — Up, the market positively assesses prospects for a stronger economy.

$USDJPY — Down, the Yen is gaining ground.

$DXY — The Dollar Index is showing clear weakness.

💎 Commodities & Precious Metals

$GLD (+0.44%) — Down slightly (0.00%), gold consolidates as investors shift to riskier assets.

$CDE (+0.95%) — Stable (0.00%), tracking the flat movement of gold.

$BRENT — Up, showing signs of demand recovery.

$WTI — Gaining ground, reflecting positive macroeconomic sentiment.

📈 Benchmark ETFs

$VOO (+0.33%) — Tracking $SPX500$ futures higher.

$VGT (+0.54%) — Up (0.00%), reflecting the strength of the technology sector.

$$CSNDX (+0.36%) — Up (0.00%), tracking Nasdaq futures in positive territory.

$BND (-0.02%) — Down (0.00%), reflecting rising yields.

💰 Crypto

$BTC (+1.8%) — Strong recovery, the crypto sector bounces off the bottom and gains ground.

$ETH (+1.04%) — Solidly up, following Bitcoin.

$TRX (+1.08%) — Up (0.00%), the altcoin sector participates in the rally.

$CRO (+2.74%) — Up, in line with overall positive sentiment.

🚀 Space & New Tech

$RKLB (+3.95%) — Up, sentiment for growth stocks suggests a rebound.

🔎 Deep Dive: The Return of Risk-On

The week opens with a decisive "Risk-On" mood. Markets are clearly shrugging off (for now) last week's banking tensions, focusing instead on tech-led growth ($NVDA, $TSM$) and hopes for monetary easing. The strong rally in cryptocurrencies ($BTC, $ETH$) and the weakness of the Dollar ($DXY$) are clear indicators that liquidity is flowing back into riskier assets. European banks ($BBVA.MC$) and the semiconductor sector show unexpected strength, while gold ($GLD$) pauses, confirming the shift in focus from systemic risk to growth opportunities.

For daily real-time market insights, deep dives, and trading discussions, follow me on X: https://x.com/ThomasVioli

To copy my portfolio, strategies, and complete trade insights, you can follow me on eToro: https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.

$TSM (+2.27%)

• Q4 revenue $32.2–33.4B vs. est. $32.0B

• Guides Q4 op margin 49–51% (vs. 50.6% prior), gross margin 59–61% (vs. 59.5%)

• Raises FY25 revenue growth to mid-30% y/y in USD terms (implies $117–122B)

• Increases lower-end FY25 Capex to $40–42B (prev. $38–42B)

• Expects gross margin dilution from overseas fabs 1–2% (prev. 2–3%)

• CFO: “AI-related demand remains very strong,” driving continued investment in next-gen computing

$TSM (+2.27%)

• Net income NT$452.3B vs. est. NT$405.5B

• Revenue NT$989.9B ($33.1B) vs. est. $31.5B

• Operating margin 50.6% (prev. 47.5%)

• Gross margin 59.5% (prev. 57.8%)

• Capex $9.7B (Q3) | $29.3B (9M 2025)

• 3nm contributed 23% of wafer revenue; 5nm and 7nm 37% and 14%

• Advanced nodes (≤7nm) = 74% of wafer revenue

• Revenue by region: 76% North America, 9% APAC, 8% China, 4% Japan, 3% EMEA

The iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF ($EIMI (+0.41%) ) continues to deliver strong performance for emerging market investors, with the latest Net Asset Value (NAV) for October 3, 2025, reaching $43.964 per share, pushing total assets to $30.05 billion USD. This marks another step in its robust upward trajectory, with a +17% gain year-on-year and sustained inflows over the past 12 months (+$2.16B).

With top holdings incl $TSM (+2.27%), $TCEHY (+1.09%), and $BABA (-0.42%) driving gains across key EM technology and finance sectors, EIMI’s passive, broad-based exposure remains a strategic vehicle for long-term growth across 3,023 companies in developing markets.

$EIMI (+0.41%)

When Congress fails to agree on a budget, federal agencies run out of funding. That means hundreds of thousands of workers furloughed, delays in economic data releases, slower approvals for projects, and uncertainty for defense and infrastructure contracts. In short: the world’s biggest economy suddenly gets paralyzed by politics.

📉 For the markets

• Equities often wobble: $SPX500 and $DJ30 usually trade lower on fear and lack of clarity.
• Government-linked names — $BA (+1.23%) (defense), $LTM (aerospace), $CAT (+0.06%) (infrastructure) — feel the direct hit.
• Bond markets react: $US10Y yields can spike as investors question fiscal stability.
• The dollar ($DXY) tends to weaken, fueling flows into gold ($GLD) and crypto ($BTC, $ETH) as hedges.
• Tech heavyweights ($AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) may outperform relatively, as their revenues depend less on federal budgets — though overall risk-off sentiment keeps volatility high.

🌍 Global spillover

Shutdown jitters ripple across the globe. European banks like $UCG (+1.2%) , $ISP (+1.13%) , and $BBVA (+2.76%) may face indirect pressure, while Asian leaders ($TSM (+2.27%) , $BABA (-0.42%) , $TCEHY (+1.09%) ) react to dollar moves and global liquidity. Commodities such as $CL (+0.45%) (oil) and $NG (gas) also swing as traders reassess growth expectations.

💼 My portfolio

Unlike many, my exposure to the U.S. is below 10%. That means I’m insulated from Washington’s political storms. My weight is spread across:

• Europe: financials, energy, and industrials remain my core.
• Asia: tech and consumer growth.
• Other regions: balanced allocation to commodities, banks, and global blue chips.

This positioning gives me the freedom to observe U.S. volatility without being dragged under. A shutdown may shake Wall Street, but my capital is shielded by a strong global balance.

⚡ The play

Shutdowns don’t break markets — they bend them. For me, it’s less about defense and more about opportunity: I can selectively add exposure to quality U.S. names beaten down by short-term panic while my diversified base keeps me steady.

✨ And when Washington stumbles, history shows: gold ($GLD (+0.44%)
), crypto ($BTC (+1.8%)
), and defensive plays like Coca-Cola ($KO (-0.1%)
) often shine brightest.