2025 - It remains a wild rollercoaster ride. On April 2, Donald Trump sends everything that is not gold on a downward spiral.

And just a few weeks later, investors in the US / in US dollars at least might ask themselves: Tariffs, was there anything at all?

The US indices S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ have returned to their pre-Liberation Day levels of early April and have recovered all their losses.

Unfortunately, things look somewhat worse for us euro investors due to the strong depreciation of the dollar. An S&P 500 ETF in euros is still around 6% below its level at the beginning of April.

Monthly view:

Nevertheless, there was also a real race to catch up in my portfolio in April. While my portfolio had lost ~10% in March, at the beginning of April there were again price losses of almost -11% on the board. In total, this amounted to ~€70,000 in price losses.

After that, things picked up significantly and April closed with only -3,4%.

This corresponds to price losses of over 11.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was -5.1% and the S&P500 -1.1% (in dollars, for euro investors it was more like -6%).

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows a much more balanced picture in April than in March:

On the winner side the top 5 are my two cybersecurity investments with Crowdstrike $CRWD (+0.01%) in 1st place and Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+0.16%) in 4th place. 2nd place goes to Bitcoin $BTC (-0.57%)
, which finally lives up to its status as "digital gold" this month.

The top 5 is completed by MercadoLibre $MELI (-1.43%) in 3rd place and Bechtle $BC8 (+0.31%) in 5th place.

Now a look at the losers' side:

1st and 2nd place go to Starbucks $SBUX (-3.5%) and NVIDIA $NVDA (-0.64%) with losses of €1,300 each. In 3rd place follows Meta
$META (-0.12%) with losses of €1,200, despite the strong quarterly figures at the end of April. Places 4 and 5 then go to two healthcare stocks with Amgen $AMGN (-0.34%) and Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0.11%)

The performance-neutral movements in April were € 650 - these are still lower at the moment due to the issue of house building.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio is still clearly in the red with -12,4%. The MSCI World is still slightly better at -10.6%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~252.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€33,000 in the current year 2025. -37.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~1.200€ from dividends / interest and ~2.600€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in April were +38% above the previous year at ~221€
• LVMH is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of over €40
• In the current year, dividends after 4 months are +20% over the first 4 months of 2025 at ~955€
• I have reached another milestone with regard to the rolling 12-month view. For the first time, I have received over €3,000 in gross dividends for the last 12 months.
• However, the significant fall in the US dollar is also making itself felt in the dividends. My dividend forecast for this year is now only +5-10% instead of 15-20%

Buying & selling:

• I bought in March for 875€
• 570€ shares
• 205€ ETFs
• 100€ crypto
• Sales there were none in April

YouTube:

My portfolio update for April is now also available on YouTube (as usual). There I also discuss the impact of the US dollar in more detail.

Link: https://youtu.be/EeEZ4JveSec

Target 2025

I haven't really set myself any goals for 2025 due to the issue of building a house. A fixed savings rate is difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).

A dividend target will also be very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.

That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.

How are things looking for you? Have you also felt the effects of the weak US dollar? Or are you now buying properly and taking advantage of the "strong euro"?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

McDonald's $MCD (+1.23%) is one of my top 3 positions in the portfolio and not without reason:

The Group has stood for stability, strong dividends and global brand power for decades.

But even McDonald's is not immune to inflation, consumer restraint and macroeconomic headwinds.

In the following article, I categorize the Q1 figures based on the official earnings release [1] and supplementary statements from the earnings call/webcast [2].

In addition to the pure figures, it's also about loyalty programs, margin development, new menu strategies and my personal conclusion on the share.

Have fun!

_______________

McDonald's is starting the new year with a decline in sales and profits, with business weakening in the USA in particular. Nevertheless, the company is showing global resilience, particularly through its licensed markets and the rapidly growing loyalty program.

📊 ESTIMATES VS. REPORTED

*(According to the earnings report, operating profit (EBIT) amounted to $2.65 billion; the third-party provider Quartr states a slightly different figure of $2.71 billion, which may be due to rounding or other valuation measures).

📊 Results Q1 2025

• Turnover$5.96 billion (previous year: $6.17 billion) -> decline of 3%

• Operating profit (EBIT): $2.65 billion (previous year: $2.74 billion) -> decrease of 3%

• Earnings per share (EPS):

• GAAP (incl. special effects): $2.60 (previous year: $2.66) → -2%
• Non-GAAP (adjusted): $2.67 (previous year: $2.70) → -1 %

What is GAAP vs. non-GAAP?

• GAAP: official accounting in accordance with US accounting rules
• Non-GAAP: adjusted figures, e.g. without special effects such as restructuring costs, often better suited to evaluate the "operating business"

💰 Margin & result

"Our adjusted operating margin was around 45.5%, despite declining sales."

• Ian Borden, CFO

• Operating margin down slightly (vs. 46.3% in FY 2024), but remains very robust given the environment
• Restaurant margins above $3.3 billion in Q1
• Declines in company-operated margins, especially in Europe (see brief digression)

EXCURSUS: Company-operated margin: (operating margin from company-owned restaurants)

...refers to the profit margin that McDonald's generates from the restaurants it operates itself, as opposed to franchise or licensed operations.

McDonald's operates two types of restaurants worldwide:

1 . Franchise restaurants (around 95%)

• Operated by independent entrepreneurs.
• McDonald's earns from this through franchise fees, rent and revenue sharing.

2 . Company-operated restaurants (approx. 5 %)

• Belong directly to McDonald's
• Sales and costs run entirely through the consolidated balance sheet.

Why is this margin important?

• It shows how profitable McDonald's own stores are.
• If, for example, costs for staff, food or energy rise, this puts pressure on this margin.
• In the earnings call, it was emphasized that company-operated margins were under pressure in Q1, particularly in Europe:

• cost inflation
• weaker demand
• unfavorable exchange rates

🌍 Global comparative figures (Comparable Sales):

• These are sales from existing restaurants that have been open for at least 13 months. They show organic growth without the effect of new locations.

• Worldwide: -1.0 %
• USA: -3.6 %

• International Operated Markets (IOM): -1.0 %
• International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL): +3.5 %

What are IOM and IDL markets?

• IOM: Countries and regions in which McDonalds itself is more heavily involved (e.g. Germany, UK, France)

• IDL: Countries in which McDonald's does not operate its restaurants itself, but licenses them to local franchise partners. These partners pay fees to McDonald's but run the business independently. Examples: Japan, Middle East, parts of Asia and Africa.

📉 Why did things go worse in the USA?

The decline in sales in the USA (-3.6 % comparable sales) was mainly due to:

• Fewer guests (falling visitor numbers)
• Consumer restraint among lower income groups
• Price increases in the previous year, which are now increasingly deterring customers
• Fewer orders per visit & fewer premium products in the shopping basket (weaker product mix)

🌐 System-wide sales (system-wide sales):

• This comprises the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants, i.e. both existing and new locations, regardless of whether they are operated by McDonald's itself or by franchise partners.

• Q1 2025: -1 %
• but: +1 % at constant exchange rates

What does this mean?

Without the influence of fluctuating exchange rates, sales would have increased by 1 %. Calculated in US dollars, for example, a weak euro has a negative impact, even though the local business is stable.

🔁 Leap Day distorts comparison:

2024 was a leap year with February 29 (Leap Day), which means one more day of sales compared to 2025, making the previous year's base appear artificially higher. This makes the decline in sales appear larger than it actually is.

🎯 Loyalty program, McDonald's digital joker

Via the app or with a customer account, users receive loyalty points for their orders, which they can exchange for free products or discounts, similar to Payback but with burgers.

• $8 billion in sales in Q1 2025 with loyalty members
• $31 billion in the last 12 months
• 175 million active users (in the last 90 days), measured on a rolling basis

Why is the revenue from loyalty members higher than the Group revenue of $5.96 bn?

• The $8 billion are system sales (Systemwide Sales see above, i.e. the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants worldwide, including franchise operations.

• McDonald's Group revenue ($5.96 billion) only includes the revenue of the company itself (e.g. franchise fees & revenue from own stores).

➡ The high loyalty revenue shows how strong customer loyalty and app usage have become and how important this digital strategy is for McDonald's future.

➡️ Loyalty customers order more frequently, spend more and are less price-sensitive. The program helps McDonald's to stabilize sales and retain customers, especially in difficult economic times.

💳 Consumer climate & customer behavior

"In contrast to a few months ago, spending by middle-class consumers has now fallen almost as sharply as that of low-income households."

• Christopher Kempczinski, CEO

• Macroeconomic pressure & geopolitical uncertainty are impacting the QSR environment more than expected.
• Low- and middle-income customers are spending significantly less - especially in the USA.
• High-income customers remain relatively stable.

UnderstandingWhat is the QSR environment?

QSR = Quick Service Restaurant

This refers to the quick service restaurant sector, e.g. McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, KFC, etc.

When the "QSR industry" is mentioned in the earnings call, this refers to the competition and demand in the global fast food sector.

The "QSR environment" includes:

• Consumer behavior (how often do people go out to eat?)
• competitive pressure
• pricing strategies
• Costs (e.g. for raw materials, wages, rents)

🔎 Interim conclusion so far:

As expected, the figures show a challenging quarter with declines in sales and earnings in almost all core markets.

The USA in particular suffered from inflation, price pressure and weaker demand.

At the same time, McDonald's remains remarkably profitable with an operating margin of 45.5 %, which speaks for the resilience of the business model.

Growth in the licensed markets (IDL) and the strong loyalty program provide clear rays of hope.

For me, these are the first signs that McDonald's is structurally well positioned, even if the short-term momentum is currently slowing.

⚙️ Further initiatives & Strategy 2025:

Value-oriented menu strategy & McValue platform

"Leadership in price-performance is crucial in this environment."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• $5 Meal Deal in the USA
• EDAP menus (Every Day Affordable Price) in all 5 most important international markets
• Example France: Happy Meal for €4, menu cooperation with Ligue 1
• Example Germany: new McSmart Snacks program for price-conscious customers

Customer loyalty & marketing offensives

"Our Minecraft campaign is our biggest global campaign to date - with over 100 participating markets."

• Kempczinski, CEO

• Minecraft movie campaign with digital experience & in-store promos
• 50 years of breakfast in the US with McMuffin Day & bagel return
• In Canada: $1 coffee & field hockey promo with 50 million impressions

Innovation & new structure

"We are creating burger, chicken & beverage specialists as we compete more and more against specialized players (e.g. chains that focus only on chicken or beverages, such as Chick-fil-A or Starbucks) to develop targeted products and better compete in these segments."

• New Restaurant Experience Team
• Faster implementation thanks to integrated product/tech/supply approach
• CosMc's insights flow into new beverage tests in US stores
• New category managers for Beef, Chicken & Beverages

GBS = Global Business Services:

• McDonald's centralizes areas such as accounting, IT & controlling to save costs and work faster.

More focus on mobile orders & digitalization

• Mobile orders via app & kiosks make the ordering process more efficient, collect data and increase basket value

Investments:

• +$300-500 million CapEx planned annually until 2027
• Focus on new restaurants, modernization & technology

📉 Challenges:

• Inflation & reluctance to spend, especially in the USA & Europe
• Currency risks: Weak foreign currencies depress sales in US dollars
• Operating margin pressure: Rising costs coupled with falling visitor numbers

📌 Personal conclusion

In the first quarter, McDonald's showed that even a giant can come under pressure, especially in a weak economic environment with declining visitor numbers in the US and Europe.

Nevertheless, the share price has remained relatively stable.

At the same time, I am convinced by the long-term levers:

the strong loyalty program, targeted pricing models and the international expansion in licensed markets (IDL), which are growing solidly.

I am continuing to hold my position, as McDonald's remains a robust basic investment for me.

However, there will be no further acquisitions at the moment, as I would first like to see margins and customer numbers stabilize in the long term.

_____________

Thank you for reading! 🤝

_____________

Sources:

[1] https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/Q1_25_Earnings_Release.pdf

[2] https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/5595/events/314423?targetTime=0.0

______________

$MCD (+1.23%)
$YUM (-1.86%)
$QSR (+0.03%)
$WEN (-0.09%)
$CMG (-3.1%)
$SBUX (-3.5%)
$DPZ (-1.02%)
$JACK (-0.41%)

Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook

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Spotify

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YouTube

https://youtu.be/QOXd_qExpKc

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$AMZN (-2.09%)
$SBUX (-3.5%)
$GOOG (+0.06%)
$GOOGL (+0.06%)
$NET (+0.35%)
$PLTR (-6.58%)
$VNA (+0.92%)
$META (-0.12%)

2025 - A year to forget if you look at the first quarter. While things were still looking positive until around mid-February, things have been going steadily downhill since the middle or end of February.

March 2025 was the worst single month in my portfolio since 2013, with price losses of almost 10%. The negative market trend in the US and a weak US dollar naturally hurt my portfolio particularly badly.

Monthly view:

In total, March was -9,9%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 30.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was -7.9% and the S&P500 -5.8% (in dollars, for euro investors it was also more like -10%).

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows a clear picture in March:

Winners? You will look for them almost in vain this month.

In 1st and 2nd place are Deutsche Bank
$DBK (+0.87%) and Allianz $ALV (+1.54%) two German financial stocks with gains of around € +180 each. Northrop Grumman $NOC (-0.07%) at +120€ is only one of 2 American stocks with a positive price performance in March.

A completely different picture on the losers' side:

1st place goes to NVIDIA $NVDA (-0.64%) with price losses of over €4,200. It is followed by Meta $META (-0.12%) and Palo Alto Networks
$PANW (+0.16%) with price losses of ~€2,000 each. 4th place goes to Alphabet
$GOOG (+0.06%) with €1,600 in share price losses. The flop 5 is then completed by a non-tech stock, namely Starbucks
$SBUX (-3.5%) with losses of ~€1,400.

The performance-neutral movements were €500 in March - these are still lower at the moment due to the house construction issue.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio is now also clearly in the red with -8,4%. The MSCI World is still doing better at -5.4%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~260.000€. This corresponds to an absolute decline of ~€25,000 in the current year 2025. -28.000€ of this comes from exchange rate losses, slightly offset by ~900€ from dividends / interest and ~2.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in March were +8% above the previous year at ~390€
• At the top of the list Amgen
  $AMGN (-0.34%) with meanwhile over 55€ (gross) dividend every 3 months
• In the current year, the dividends after 3 months are +15% over the first 3 months of 2025 at ~730€
• The US dollar will also have an impact on dividends this year. Example: 2,500$ at an exchange rate of 1:1 equals 2,500€. At an exchange rate of 1.08$, these 2,500$ would only be worth 2,315€, a decrease of ~185€

Buying & selling:

• I bought in March for 750€
• 460€ shares
• 190€ ETFs
• 100€ crypto
• Sales Was there no

Change of strategy?

At the moment, Donald Trump and his policies are causing a lot of scrutiny, especially with regard to the (high) US share in the portfolio.

I can understand these thoughts very well. However, I have decided not to change my strategy and to maintain my high US & tech allocation in my portfolio.

There are certainly better short-term investment opportunities (European defense stocks as an example). Through my savings plans, however, I have deliberately opted for a long-term buying strategy that I will not throw overboard every few months. In the long term, for example, 2022 was an extremely good year to buy tech stocks.

As I don't have a portfolio target for this year anyway, I'm happy to go even lower - hopefully I'll be happy about the entry prices in 2-3 years' time.

YouTube:

Unfortunately, I only uploaded 2 videos to YouTube in March. Unfortunately, work in March was extremely stressful and time-consuming, so there was little time left for this.

I have also uploaded my March portfolio update as a video there if anyone would like to see some more information on the portfolio performance: https://youtu.be/fxbvatj6uvM?si=xP_gvoEmtuqSsfz8

I'm particularly happy to receive criticism or feedback here! 😊

Goal 2025

As already mentioned in the January & February review, a fixed deposit target for this year makes little sense due to the house construction. A fixed savings rate is also difficult to implement due to the issue (unforeseen costs and the like).

A dividend target is also very difficult due to the high volatility of the US dollar.

That's why I'm focusing on other topics this year, especially building a house and possibly one or two YouTube successes.

How are things looking for you? Are you sticking to your portfolio target for 2025 or do you also see difficulties in achieving it after the first quarter?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

... let's go for a coffee first ☕️

Apart from that, dividends are at least a predictable income, which at the same time enables the cash flow to continue purchasing

Have you heard about the latest developments at Starbucks $SBUX (-3.5%) heard? CEO Brian Niccol has announced that 1,100 employees will be laid off this week. This is part of a comprehensive plan to restructure the company.

In a letter to employees, Niccol explained that the layoffs are necessary to simplify the company's structure. The aim is to create less complex and more efficient teams. This decision will also affect several hundred unfilled positions worldwide.

The affected employees will continue to receive their salary and current benefits until May 2. There is also a comprehensive severance package based on the length of their employment and career planning support.

Starbucks currently employs around 361,000 people worldwide, with the majority working in stores. The planned redundancies mainly affect the 16,000 corporate employees, while the majority of in-store employees are not affected.

What do you think of the measures Starbucks is taking? Is this the right path for a successful future?

The first month of the new year is already over. While the first half of January was characterized by Trump euphoria and rising markets, the second half was much more volatile, particularly due to DeepSeek and its impact on the AI sector.

For me personally, the savings rate was unfortunately somewhat lower due to the issue of house building, as already mentioned at the end of 2024. Currently (and probably also for the coming months) it will therefore only be around €500-700.

I am aware that this is of course still a very high savings rate, but it is significantly lower than the ~€2,000 of recent years.

Also very exciting: In November, I withdrew over €20,000 from my custody account to raise the equity for the bank. Just 2 months later, my custody account is back to the same value of almost €300,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

In total, January was +3,9%. This corresponds to price gains of ~11.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.5% and the S&P500 +2.7%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers shows an unusual picture in January:

The biggest loser by far is NVIDIA! With price losses of almost €3,000, the emergence of DeepSeek caused substantial losses in the portfolio.

The other losers, on the other hand, are only worth a side note. After NVIDIA, Apple has already lost significantly less with ~€400 losses. The remaining loser stocks then only lost around €200.

On the winners' side at the top with a total of almost €2,000 in price gains is the Meta share. Followed by Bitcoin with €1,500 price gains and 2 other tech stocks: Alphabet with €1,200 and Crowdstrike with €1,000. 5th place goes to Starbucks, also with gains of almost €1,000.

The performance-neutral movements were clearly negative in January, as some of the cash was used to buy the property. The property is of course also an asset, but I would rather focus on liquid assets here.

The performance-neutral movements in relation to my portfolio were ~€600

Dividend:

• The dividends in January were 30% above the previous year at ~€166
• TSMC is in the lead with over 30€ (gross) dividend every 3 months.

Buys & Sells:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~600€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsMicrosoft $MSFT (-0.31%) Stryker $SYK (+0.66%) Apple $AAPL (-3.17%) Home Depot $HD (-1.11%) Starbucks $SBUX (-3.5%) Texas Instruments $TXN (-2.11%) Nike $NKE (-2.19%) Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (-0.12%) Lockheed Martin $LMT (-0.31%) LVMH $MC (-0.97%)
• 
  Growth: -
• ETFsMSCI World $XDWD and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales -

YouTube:

In mid-January, I uploaded my first video to YouTube. I am particularly proud of a video explaining my dividend strategy. The video has already reached almost 200 views and a playback time of ~10 hours!

Even though I'm still not really sure what exactly I want to do on YouTube, I really enjoy editing videos and talking about shares.

That's why I created my January portfolio update as a video for the first time. Of course I would love to hear your feedback!

https://youtu.be/SD8ZKVWbUGA

Target 2025

Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.

A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added

A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year.

Nevertheless, I would formulate the following goal for this year:

Current portfolio balance is €300,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. With an average market return of ~7%, that would be price gains of ~€21,000.

This would put my portfolio at €330,000 to €340,000 at the end of 2025.

-> I would therefore aim for a portfolio value of well over €300,000, so that a 2% fluctuation does not lead directly back below €300k.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy