Discussion about SQ
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199
Now I have them!!!
My cell phone just vibrated and I received the notification that I had $SQ (+1.04%) purchased at 38,83 €. YES! I made this video about $SQ some time ago.
Not so good, but I'm still optimistic:
Comment:
Most of the GQ community is really great.
Unfortunately, there are a few "mimimis", "sheriffs", "bored", "envious", etc. who complain that I include a service link to my respective YouTube video.
It just so happens that my main channel is YouTube. I'm not going to write huge treatises and post them here when I can do the whole thing in short videos.
If that bothers you, feel free to block my GQ account.
Everyone else... have fun with the video and I look forward to your feedback. Thank you.
Block Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.98) 🔴; +19 % YoY
🔹 Revenue: $5.77 B (Est. $6.21 B) 🔴; -3 % YoY
FY & Near-Term Guidance
🔹 FY25 Gross Profit: $9.96 B (Est. $10.18 B) 🔴; +12 % YoY target
🔹 2Q25 Gross Profit: $2.45 B (Est. $2.53 B) 🔴; +9.5 % YoY target
🔹 FY25 Adjusted Operating Income: $1.90 B (19 % margin)
Segment Performance
🔹 Cash App Gross Profit: $1.38 B; +10 % YoY
🔹 Square Gross Profit: $898 M; +9 % YoY
🔹 Square GPV: $54.1 B; +7.2 % YoY (+8.2 % cc)
Cash-Flow & Liquidity
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $727 M; -43 % YoY
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $8.5 B; Total Liquidity $9.2 B
Other Metrics:
🔹 Gross Profit: $2.29 B; +9 % YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $329 M; +32 % YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $466 M; +28 % YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $813 M; +15 % YoY
Management Commentary
🔸 “We’ve incorporated a more cautious macro view into guidance but expect gross-profit growth to re-accelerate to the mid-teens by Q4, driven primarily by Cash App Borrow expansion, deeper BNPL integration, and over 100 new Square product launches.” — Jack Dorsey & Amrita Ahuja
What do you think of Block?
I will certainly buy it when it reaches my buy price. $SQ (+1.04%)
Why and why... I have analyzed this in my video.
Have a great weekend.
Angelo from the YouTube channel "Finance Differently"
Annotation:
The majority of the GQ community is really great.
Unfortunately, there are a few "mimimis", "sheriffs", "bored", "envious", etc. who complain that I include links to my respective YouTube video.
It just so happens that my main channel is YouTube. I'm not going to write huge treatises and post them here when I can do the whole thing in short videos.
That's why I no longer link to videos, but you can find them on my YouTube channel and subscribe to them.
Is the buy-the-dip mentality now dying?
1 - Opinion (not that some users cry again in the comments that a market forecast includes a forecast on Trump)
2 - SPX chart
3 - Which stocks are interesting
1 - So there's the tariff hammer and the crash. What now?
Trump's team is probably relying on the typical crash mechanisms.
The investors with the most capital can buy much longer and more in this crash and are not as affected by price losses due to their wealth. This means that the top 0.1% of the US will also benefit the most from this crash, so there are unlikely to be any major complaints from the US elite.
According to Project 2025, however, the plan for the next few years is to make the USA less dependent on foreign markets (rather stupid, as the United States exerts influence through the strength of its economy even without using the military)
To what extent this should and can be implemented is questionable for me, because American companies are only as valuable as long as they sell globally.
Here, the upper class will not sit around and wait for the basis of their wealth to be removed, especially if the rest of the world continues to act more or less globally.
So for me this attempt is more of a medium-term thing, either until Trump fires his advisors, until America gets rid of Trump or until they change their minds.
2 - Only the absolute basics $CSPX (+0.52%)
Forward path:
As the SPX is massively dependent on technology stocks ->
It could also soon become very difficult with the suspected EU tariffs on services and a 50% increase in Chinese tariffs in the entire technology sector.
How much is questionable, however, as tariffs can also be lifted from one day to the next...
- Upward trend of all averages broken
- Completely failed almost to the 2022 high/ 50% FIB
There is now upside potential in the short term, but with Trump's momentum on tariffs, it may simply go back to the 4500 area on bad news.
In the medium term, it looks particularly volatile due to Trump, I can imagine that we will see 4000 this year. But maybe Trump will back down (edit, 3 hours later: yes he will. As I said: volatility)
3 - Interesting stocks for me:
China $1810 (+2.06%) ...
USA $SQ (+1.04%) buy before the next trend in case of strong price losses
Japan $8001 (+1.68%) diversified like hardly any other company
EU $AIR (+0.21%) Defense boom take the next few years with the most normal valuation
I would take a more relaxed approach to buying dips in the near future, otherwise the cash will be gone very quickly.
Dependence of the financial market on an unstable country $USA
If I am wrong somewhere, please correct me.
Due to the great dependence of the capital markets on America, political or structural changes in the USA represent a major risk for the entire market and also for global ETFs.
Trump and Musk are radically abolishing (or further reducing) controls on large companies in addition to creating a perfect divide in society.
But isn't the Project 2025 team interested in crashing the economy to facilitate refinancing and then even more debt? I mean, the paper is public...
And seriously: In the US, there were already only the absolutely necessary controls regarding the environment and social compatibility. With the abolition of entire authorities, it is only a matter of time before a company causes great damage to the social environment or the environment due to pure greed for profit, which then has a massive impact on companies in the medium term.
The regulatory authorities are there for something, they are not an invention of the evil left to steal money.
In addition, Trump's tax cuts will probably exceed the debt savings, even after he has taken on new ones (would estimate as early as 2026). Contrary to expectations, inflation has not decreased, especially food prices have continued to rise, tariffs will not cause these prices to fall again.
I will $VEU (+0.45%) into the portfolio and thus slightly reduce the US $VWCE (+0.41%) slightly lower.
In addition:
When it comes to individual stocks, I tend not to bet on America any more, if I do I'll wait for the setbacks that are sure to come this year.
America is only a hold for me.
Subsequent purchase 🛒🛍️
Once again $NVDA (+0.4%)
$SQ (+1.04%)
$GOOGL (+1.27%)
$NOVO B (-2.62%) topped up, let's see how it goes 🫣
BUY BUY BUY
After analysis, bought again and increased the buyin to $SQ (+1.04%) , $AAPL (-0.21%) and $PYPL (+0.75%) lowered.
$TSLA (+2.05%) & $NVDA (+0.4%) Short run perfectly!
Nancy Pelosi: Tracker
Purchase of ~$300K from Hims $HIMS (+8.65%)
Sale of ~$250K from Schwab $SCHW (+0.24%)
Purchase of ~$250K from Block $SQ (+1.04%)
Sale of ~$250K from Monster $MNST (+1.3%)
Purchase of ~$250K from Microsoft $MSFT (+0.27%)
Increase in Block Inc.
Getting a foot in the door....
Block (Square) Shareholder Letter Q4/2024
Block $SQ (+1.04%) Letter to shareholders Q4 2024 - Summary
Corporate strategy and developments
Block made extensive structural changes in 2024 to accelerate growth and product development. Square's technological foundation has been overhauled, transforming the platform from a payment system to a complete commerce platform. This realignment enables faster development of new features for online and offline commerce and gives sellers more flexibility with orders and customer service.
Onboarding of new sellers has been improved by streamlining the registration process and introducing the new Square Point of Sale app. This app combines the functions of five separate applications into one and has already been adopted by half of the new sellers. Existing sellers are also being gradually migrated to the new platform.
In parallel, Block has further developed the Cash App to offer a leading banking solution. New features include high-interest savings accounts, free ATM withdrawals, the ability to invest salary payments in stocks or Bitcoin, overdraft protection and a free tax filing option. In addition, Cash App Borrow has been expanded to a loan volume of USD 9 billion to provide small, easily repayable loans.
Block has also optimized its organizational structure to enable more efficient collaboration between Square and Cash App.
Q4 2024 financial results
Financial metrics show strong growth:
- Total gross profit: USD 2.31 billion (+14% year-on-year)
- Cash App gross profit: USD 1.38 billion (+16%)
- Square gross profit: USD 924 million (+12%)
- Operating income: USD 13 million (1% margin)
- Adjusted operating income: USD 402 million (7% margin)
- Net income: USD 1.95 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA: USD 757 million
- The strong performance is based on a combination of higher payment income, improved monetization of Cash App and the expansion of the BNPL business (Buy Now, Pay Later).
Strategic goals for 2025 and beyond
Block has three main goals for the coming year:
1. expanding access to the global economy: Block wants to connect sellers, buyers and communities more closely through a "neighborhood network". Small businesses and restaurants in particular are to be supported by Square.
2. increasing openness and flexibility for customers: Block is increasingly focusing on open source technologies and developing new solutions for cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin mining chips and a non-custodial bitkey wallet.
3. automation and artificial intelligence: The use of AI-supported tools is intended to reduce manual tasks in order to increase efficiency for customers and internal teams.
Outlook for 2025
Block expects gross profit growth of at least 15 % year-on-year.
The expected figures for the year:
Gross profit: USD 10.22 billion
Adjusted operating income: USD 2.1 billion (21% margin)
Target for 2026:
Achieve the "Rule of 40" (sum of gross profit growth and operating margin).
Investments in sales and marketing will be increased, especially for Square and Cash App The introduction of Afterpay for the Cash App Card and the expansion of Cash App Borrow should further accelerate growth.
Overall, Block plans to establish itself as a leading provider of financial technologies by integrating commerce, payment and banking services.
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