$CRM (-0.38%)

Salesforce share: Chart from 04.06.2025, price: USD 264.47 - symbol: CRM | Source: TWS

Not much time has passed since the last analysis of Salesforce (Nach den Quartalszahlen: Droht Salesforce jetzt der Absturz?) not much time has passed, but a lot has happened.

The share has lost value as expected, there have been Quartalszahlen and a billion-dollar takeover has been completed - but one thing at a time.

At the time, the share had formed a double top at USD 367 and it was therefore likely that it would go one or two levels lower.

This is what happened, but since then the technical situation has changed. The important Unterstützung at USD 230 has held, creating a multiple bottom.

This puts the bulls back in a much better position.

If the price now manages to rise above USD 270, a renewed rise towards USD 284 or USD 296 can be expected. Above this, the path towards USD 310 would be clear.

If, on the other hand, the share falls below USD 250, further price losses to USD 230 must be expected. Below this level, the chart picture would become permanently gloomier.

However, these are only short-term considerations. The long-term direction of the share price will be decided elsewhere - on the fundamental front.

Quarterly figures

In the first quarter, earnings of USD 2.58 per share were well above expectations of USD 2.54. With sales of USD 9.80 billion, the company also exceeded analysts' estimates of USD 9.78 billion.

For the year as a whole, this corresponds to an 8% increase in sales and a 6% jump in profits.

The most relevant Kennzahl however, is the free cash flow, which increased by 4% to USD 6.3 billion.

Of this, USD 2.7 billion was used for share buybacks and USD 402 million for the payment of a Dividende payment.

The major growth driver in the Group is Data Cloud and AI. It could also be said that many customers are switching to the new systems, which is causing friction in the short term.

Over the year as a whole, ARR in this segment has risen by 120% to more than USD 1 billion.

Outlook and valuation

The easiest way to see where things are heading is to look at the order backlog (current remaining performance obligation), which increased by 12% to USD 29.6 billion.

Growth momentum is therefore likely to pick up again in the near future.

The sales forecast for the current financial year has therefore been raised from USD 40.5 - 40.9 billion to USD 41.0 - 41.3 billion and the earnings forecast from USD 11.09 - 11.17 to USD 11.27 - 11.33 per share.

Free cash flow is expected to increase by 9 to 10 %. As the number of outstanding Aktien is declining, the consensus estimates of an 11% increase in FCF per share to USD 11.31 per share are plausible.

Salesforce therefore has a forward P/FCF of 23.4, which is reasonable in view of all the facts available.

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/salesforce-aktie/salesforce-analyse/#salesforce-quartalszahlen-milliarden-uebernahmen-und-mehr

For me in any case. Today, after-hours figures from $NVDA (-0.85%) and $CRM (-0.38%) . Not only could there be strong fluctuations in these stocks afterwards, but it will also have an impact on the entire tech stock market.

What do you expect?

Are you positioning yourself in advance or are you waiting?

I expect $NVDA (-0.85%) rather with falling prices if expectations are not pulverized,

which I can't imagine. The share has performed very well from the April low. People are hoping for a positive surprise. If that fails to materialize, it will go down. In the case of $CRM, on the other hand, I expect the share price to rise and also consider it interesting in the medium term.

I am planning to enter both stocks.

The current market sentiment at $BTC (+0.04%) makes me personally incredibly bullish. We are just scratching the $100k mark again and nobody seems to care.

With New Hampshire, we have the first US state with a strategic BTC reserve.

A bill also came into force yesterday in Arizona that does not allow direct investment, but transfers confiscated BTC to the state reserve. In many other states, SBR laws are currently going through the official legislative process, which you can follow here:

https://bitcoinlaws.io/reserve-race

$MSTR (-0.4%) hosted "Strategy World 2025" in Orlando from May 5-8. A conference at which BTC strategies and use cases for companies were presented.

Among others were:

- Visa $V (-0.13%)

- Dell $DELL

- Salesforce $CRM (-0.38%)

- Siemens $SIE (-0.47%)

- Palantir $PLTR (-0.97%)

- JP Morgan $JPM (-0.91%)

All of these companies are apparently involved with Bitcoin.

There are more and more strategy imitators. More and more companies are dedicating their entire business model to buying as much BTC as possible.

The funding rate is at bear market levels, which indicates a healthy, sustainable increase. There are no over-leveraged long trades in the market.

There is less and less BTC on the exchanges. The stock on the exchanges has been falling continuously for 5 years. BTC is not only being bought, it is being withdrawn from the exchanges. The supply is therefore falling continuously.

And while all this is going on, interest in Bitcoin is absolutely low, as can be seen from Google Trends.

It's interesting to see the direction in which this is all developing. What do you think?

1 Meta Platforms (A)

Meta is investing heavily in AI and the metaverse - an exciting tech giant with solid cash flow after the correction.

2. paypal

Fintech giant with a strong market position in digital payments - currently valued more favorably due to the correction.

3. realty income

Stable dividend payer ("Monthly Dividend Company") from the real estate sector - down due to interest rate concerns, now an attractive entry point.

4. salesforce

Market leader in CRM software with good growth prospects - the correction is pushing the price down to a more interesting level.

5 Shopify (A)

E-commerce enabler with potential to profit from global online trade - more attractive again after setbacks.

6. target

Solid retail company with stable sales - fallen due to economic uncertainties and now valued more excitingly.

7 The Trade Desk (A)

Profiteer of growing digital advertising - currently cheaper due to tech sector correction.

8 Zeta Global Holdings

Growing in data-driven marketing - still a small cap with opportunities due to current valuation weakness.

9 Alphabet (A)

Google parent with strong AI and cloud position - correction offers long-term investors favorable entry opportunities.

10. amazon.com

Market leader in e-commerce and strong in the cloud sector (AWS) - currently more exciting again after declines.

11. ASML

Monopolist in EUV lithography machines for the chip industry - cheaper due to market downturn, but essential in the long term.

12. diageo

Strong consumer goods stock (e.g. spirits) - currently under pressure due to economic concerns, which creates good opportunities for additional buying.

13. HCA Healthcare

Largest private hospital operator in the USA - defensive business model, more interesting valuation after the correction.

14. Lam Research

Important supplier for the semiconductor industry - currently affected by the weak semiconductor market, but enormously important in the long term.

With these words, I wish you a pleasant Sunday evening and a successful week! $META (-0.3%)
$LRCX (-0.78%)
$HCA (-1.01%)
$DGE (+0%)
$ASML (-0.14%)
$AMZN (-0.39%)
$GOOGL (-0.66%)
$ZETA (-0.45%)
$TTD (-0.5%)
$TGT (+0.26%)
$SHOP (-1.22%)
$CRM (-0.38%)
$O (-0.38%)
$PYPL (-0.73%)

#etfs
#dividends
#stockanalysis
#aktien
#tech

2025 - A stock market year that has so far been more reminiscent of rough seas. It goes uphill and the next moment it goes abruptly downhill again.

The January began with a lot of Trump euphoria on the markets, before this was halted by DeepSeek in the second half of January.

The February recovered relatively quickly from this shock before falling again in the second half of the month. The Trump euphoria has turned into a Trump shock for the time being.

Nevertheless, I will continue to hold a 75-80% USA quota with a high proportion of tea.

I can get over the fact that after 2 years of outperformance against my benchmarks, there may be an underperformance this year.

Monthly view:

In total, February was -3,2%. This corresponds to price losses of almost 10.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was down -2.5% and the S&P500 -1.4%.

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers nevertheless reveals a surprising picture for the top performer in February.

But first a look at the losersThe biggest loser by far is Alphabet $GOOG (-0.72%) With losses of almost €3,000, the share price took a heavy hit in February. This is followed by a total of almost €5,000 in price losses Bitcoin
$BTC (+0.04%) & Ethereum
$ETH (+0.3%) . 4th & 5th place goes to Salesforce
$CRM (-0.38%) and TSMC $TSM (-1.08%) two more tech stocks

On the winning side are actually at the top, much to my own surprise NVIDIA
$NVDA (-0.85%) with a price gain of almost €1,000. And this despite the fact that NVIDIA lost over 10% on the penultimate trading day in February. Nevertheless, the recovery after the DeepSeek shock in February was greater than expected.

The top 5 includes Amgen
$AMGN (-0.43%) and Johnson & Johnson
$JNJ (-0.17%) two stocks from the healthcare sector, a rather defensive sector. These are joined by MercadoLibre $MELI (-0.47%) and Palo Alto Networks $PANW (-1.12%) but also two tech stocks.

The performance-neutral movements were positive again in February at € 900, after January was clearly negative due to a property purchase.

current year:

In the YTD my portfolio is still just in the plus with +0,6%. However, the MSCI World is up +1.9% and I am currently underperforming my benchmark.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~288.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€3,000 in the current year 2025. ~1.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~500€ from dividends / interest and ~1.500€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in February were 19% above the previous year at ~€188
• At the top of the list Procter & Gamble
  $PG (-0.07%) with now over €50 (gross) dividend every 3 months
• In the current year, the dividends after 2 months are +24% over the first 2 months of 2025 at ~350€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in November for ~800€
• 520€ shares
• 210€ ETFs
• Here I took up a new ETF via a savings plan, an ETF that normally does not correspond to my strategy at all. This is a Covered Call ETF on the NASDAQ $JEPQ (+0.68%) - The ETF uses a covered call strategy to aim for a distribution of ~10% p.a. and still generate price gains. I know that this doesn't make sense from a tax perspective, but what the heck: you can have fun sometimes 😉
• 100€ crypto
• sales there were none in February

YouTube:

I uploaded a few new videos to YouTube in February and I'm starting to feel less stupid talking into a microphone.

I've also uploaded my portfolio update there as a video if anyone would like to see some more information about the portfolio performance in February:

https://youtu.be/iJZ0i3EO5Hs

Here I act according to the motto: Let's see what happens - What will happen!

Goal 2025

Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.

A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added

A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year and the markets are very volatile.

The current portfolio balance is ~€290,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. This would bring me to just over €300,000. I originally assumed a market return of 7% for this year. However, after the first two months it is difficult for me to estimate how this year will go.

That's why I'm being honest: A target doesn't make sense for me this year.

The goal is to build a successful house and for the portfolio we'll just see what happens.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Shares in Salesforce $CRM (-0.38%) fell by around 5% in pre-market trading after the company issued a revenue forecast for the 2026 financial year that was below Wall Street's expectations. The reason for this is the slow uptake of the Agentforce platform, which is based on artificial intelligence.

Salesforce, a pioneer in software-as-a-service, is relying heavily on AI agents to drive growth. In a market where companies like Microsoft and Amazon are already leaders, the pressure on Salesforce is particularly high.

Forecast revenues for 2025 are expected to be between USD 40.5 billion and USD 40.9 billion, while analysts expect an average of USD 41.35 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of USD 11.09 to USD 11.17 are also expected to be below analysts' estimates of USD 11.18.

Analysts emphasize that the return to double-digit growth rates depends on the successful introduction of Agentforce, especially after the weak growth figures of recent quarters.