S&P Global

$SPGI (+2.04%) I have had S&P Global on my watchlist for some time. Does anyone know why the share is so "down" at the moment?

I can't find any news that could explain it.

S&P Global Q3 2024 $SPGI (+2.04%)

Financial performance:

S&P Global delivered a robust financial performance in Q3 2024 with revenue up 16% to USD 3,575 million. This growth was mainly driven by strong performances in the Ratings and Indices segments. Adjusted operating profit increased by 20% to USD 1,744 million, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Balance sheet analysis:

The balance sheet shows a stable financial position, with total assets of USD 60,368 million as of September 30, 2024. The company recorded an increase in cash and cash equivalents to USD 1,697 million, compared to USD 1,291 million at the end of 2023, indicating improved liquidity. However, there was a slight increase in current liabilities, which could indicate rising financial obligations.

Income statement:

The income statement shows a significant increase in net income, resulting in a 33% increase in GAAP diluted EPS to $3.11. In addition, adjusted diluted EPS increased 21% to $3.89 due to higher adjusted net income.

Cash flow analysis:

S&P Global's cash flow from operating activities was strong, totaling $1,445 million in the third quarter. Free cash flow improved to USD 1,330 million, indicating efficient cash management. Nevertheless, spending on financing activities increased, indicating higher outflows related to financing.

Key figures and profitability:

The company's operating profit margin improved by 530 basis points to 40.1%, while the adjusted operating profit margin increased by 180 basis points to 48.8%. These improvements underline the increased profitability and operational efficiency.

Segment analysis:

• Ratings: Sales increased by 36%, driven by strong demand for credit ratings.
• Indices: Sales grew by 18%, supported by higher asset-linked fees and exchange-traded derivatives.
• Commodity Insights: Sales increased by 9%, supported by a strong performance in the energy sector.
• Market Intelligence: Sales increased by 6%, although the adjusted margin outlook was revised downwards.

Competitive Analysis:

S&P Global continues to leverage its strong market position in credit ratings and indices. The company's strategic focus on sustainability, energy transition and generative AI positions it favorably against competitors in the evolving market environment.

Forecasts and management commentary:

The company has updated its forecast for 2024 and expects sales growth of between 11.5% and 12.5%, which represents a significant increase on the previous range of 8.0% to 10.0%. In addition, the operating profit margin is expected to expand to between 600 and 650 basis points.

Risks and opportunities:

The main risks include the potential impact of rising short-term debt and falling unrealized income, which could affect future revenue recognition. On the other hand, strategic investments in sustainability and AI offer significant opportunities for growth.

Summary and strategic implications:

S&P Global's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives indicate a stable financial position and significant growth potential. The company's focus on sustainability and AI as well as its robust revenue growth position it favorably for sustained success. Nevertheless, careful management of financial commitments and revenue recognition will be critical to maintain this growth trajectory. If you get the price right, then definitely a buy candidate alongside $MCO (+1.19%) .

Positive statements:

• Revenue growth: S&P Global reported a 16% increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2024, reaching $3,575 million, indicating strong performance across all segments.
• Earnings per share: Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 21% to $3.89, supported by an 18% increase in adjusted net income and a 2% reduction in diluted shares outstanding.
• Forecast adjustment: S&P Global updated its 2024 guidance to expect revenue growth between 11.5% and 12.5%, an increase from the previous range of 8.0% to 10.0%.
• Expected margin expansion: The company expects operating profit margin expansion of 600 to 650 basis points, indicating improved operating efficiency.
• Strategic focus: The strategic focus on the energy transition, sustainability and the use of generative AI is expected to expand S&P Global's data capabilities and position the company for future growth.

Negative statements:

• Revision of margin guidance: Despite the overall positive performance, the adjusted margin outlook for the Market Intelligence division has been revised downwards to 32.5% - 33.0% from 33.0% - 34.0% previously.
• Short-term debt: The company's short-term debt increased, with payments on short-term debt totaling $188 million, which could indicate increasing financial obligations.
• Financing expenses: Cash flows used in financing activities increased to $3,280 million from $2,602 million in the prior year, indicating higher outflows related to financing.
• Unearned Revenue: Unearned revenue decreased from $3,461 million at the end of 2023 to $3,288 million at September 30, 2024, potentially impacting future revenue recognition.
• Management change: The change in leadership, with Martina Cheung to be appointed as the new President and CEO, brings uncertainty as the company manages this change in top management.

Hellas Investment Community,

How do you deal with companies that convince you of their business model but run permanently?

Notable mentions:

$FICO (+1.87%)

$CTAS (+2.12%)

$MCO (+1.19%)

$SPGI (+2.04%)

$COST (+3.43%)

I've been watching all these companies for some time now and I'm seeing them run away from me.

Valuation-wise they are getting more and more expensive and were already extremely expensive at the time of first contact. Every time I analyze them, I decide not to buy them only to see them gain another 20% a few months later.

How do you approach such companies? How do you value them? How do you fight your FOMO here?

Good return and best regards from Vienna

📊 MSCI: More than just indices - the secret data king of the financial markets 👑

MSCI Inc. is a leading global provider of equity, bond and real estate indices as well as multi-asset portfolio analysis tools. The company also offers innovative ESG and climate products that enable institutional investors to develop sustainable investment strategies. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in New York City, the company has $MSCI (+0.54%) has established itself as an indispensable partner for capital markets and asset managers worldwide.

Historical development

The origins of MSCI date back to 1968, when Capital International first published global equity indices for non-US markets. In 1986, Morgan Stanley secured the license rights and coined the name Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). With the acquisition of Barra in 2004, MSCI added analytical tools to its portfolio. The IPO in 2007 marked a further milestone, which was completed in 2009 with the full spin-off of $MS (+2.75%) Stanley in 2009.

Business model and core competencies

MSCI's business model rests on four central pillars:

1. index segment : development and licensing of globally recognized equity indices, including the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets.

2. analytical segment: provision of sophisticated portfolio analysis tools used primarily by asset managers and hedge funds.

3. ESG segment: MSCI is a pioneer in sustainable investing and provides comprehensive ESG analysis to support environmental and socially responsible investment strategies.

4. private assets: diversification into unlisted assets, in particular real estate and private equity.

MSCI's core competence lies in the development of global indices that offer investors a comprehensive representation of opportunities and risks across different sectors and countries. A key competitive advantage is decades of data collection, which is crucial for strategy development, portfolio management and risk analysis.

Market position and competition

MSCI has established itself as one of the global market leaders in financial indices and acts neutrally towards regulatory authorities worldwide. This independence has enabled the company to generate 17% of its revenue in the Asia-Pacific region - a significant advantage over competitors such as $SPGI (+2.04%) which only achieve a share of less than 3% in this region.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

MSCI's future strategy is characterized by continuous innovation and expansion.

1. ESG and climate products: The acquisition of Carbon Delta in 2019 strengthened MSCI's position in climate risk analytics and sustainability.

2. private asset segment: Through acquisitions such as Real Capital Analytics (2021) and Burgiss Group (2023), MSCI is expanding its expertise in unlisted assets

3. options: A cooperation with Cboe Global Markets since 2021 opens up new opportunities in options trading on MSCI indices.

4. fixed income indices: The development of new bond indices in collaboration with MarketAxess (2022) demonstrates MSCI's efforts to gain a stronger foothold in the fixed income space.

Total Addressable Market (TAM) and equity performance

The total market that MSCI addresses is enormous: over 13 trillion US dollars are invested worldwide in funds based on MSCI indices. The company continuously generates income through license fees of 0.02 to 0.04 percent of assets under management.

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog: https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/msci-mehr-als-nur-indizes-der-heimliche-datenk-nig-der-finanzm-rkte

Conclusion

MSCI's business model may seem simple at first glance, especially because it is easy to imitate, but it is not that simple. MSCI has established a strong brand with high recognition value, even among retail providers, and enjoys excellent relationships with asset managers. In addition, the company benefits from an extremely attractive business model, with high profitability, impressive scaling synergies and a promising trend. Revenues are recurring and therefore highly predictable and MSCI has successfully positioned itself in all markets, which is also reflected in an attractive revenue distribution. Capital efficiencies have been at a first-class level for some time and there are therefore few negative aspects, apart from the high level of debt, which at the same time offers leverage and a high valuation. Anyone who can acquire the shares at a lower price after a small crash should definitely buy them, as the company is a real cash machine if managed correctly.

Number crunchers of the financial world: Moody's vs. S&P in a data duel

Company presentation

$SPGI (+2.04%) and $MCO (+1.19%) are the two leading rating agencies worldwide. Both companies assess the creditworthiness of companies, countries and financial products and play a decisive role on the global financial markets. Their ratings and analyses have a significant influence on the investment decisions of investors and the financing conditions of issuers.

Historical development

S&P Global

- Founded in 1860 as Poor's Publishing

- 1941 Merged with Standard Statistics to form Standard & Poor's Corporation

- Acquired by McGraw-Hill in 1966

- Since 2016, the company has operated as S&P Global, offering an expanded range of financial market data, analytics and index solutions

Moody's

- Founded in 1909 by John Moody

- Acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in 1962

- In 2000, the spin-off from Dun & Bradstreet took place and Moody's became an independent, listed company.

Business model and core competencies

- Credit ratings for companies, governments and financial products, including bonds and structured financial products.

- The sale of financial market data and analyses that are of central importance to institutional investors, banks and regulatory authorities.

- Market indices (especially at S&P), such as the world-renowned S&P 500.

Its core competence lies in the assessment of credit risks. Decades of experience, extensive databases and highly qualified analysts make both companies indispensable players on the international financial markets.

Market position and competition

S&P Global and Moody's dominate the global market for credit ratings, together with the third major rating agency, Fitch. These three companies - often referred to as the "Big Three" - control over 90% of the market.

| Aspect | S&P Global | Moody's |

|----------------|-----------------|------------------|

| Market share | approx. 40 % | approx. 35 % |

| Strengths | Leader in market indices (e.g. S&P 500) | Stronger in corporate ratings and structured products |

S&P Global enjoys an advantage through its market indices, which serve as a benchmark for many investment funds and institutional investors.

Moody's, on the other hand, has an advantage in corporate ratings, especially for large, complex financial products.

Future prospects and strategic initiatives

- The expansion of business with financial market data and analyses in order to become less dependent on the pure rating business.

- The use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to assess credit risks more precisely and efficiently.

- Expansion into emerging markets in order to benefit from the growing financial markets in these regions.

- The development of ESG ratings (environmental, social, governance), as investors are increasingly incorporating sustainable and ethical aspects into their decisions.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The global market for credit ratings and financial market data is growing steadily. The increasing complexity of the financial markets and the rising demand for comprehensive credit and ESG ratings are driving this growth. In addition, stricter regulatory requirements mean that more companies and financial products have to be rated. Estimates for the overall market are in the double-digit billion range, which offers plenty of scope for further growth.

Share performance

The shares of S&P Global and Moody's have performed impressively in recent years. Both benefit from stable earnings, high margins and the growing importance of financial market data. Moody TR over 5 years 142% and S&P from 109%

For the development (company figures), a better view and more, check out the free blog:https://topicswithhead.beehiiv.com/p/zahlenjongleure-der-finanzwelt-moody-s-vs-s-p-im-daten-duell

Conclusion

In a highly regulated market with only three providers and a rising trend, there are basically only winners. Therefore, the long-term trend is less decisive as long as no major screw-ups occur. However, it must be noted that S&P's numbers do not look particularly bright at the moment, especially after a very good period. It remains to be seen, because if the situation continues like this for another two years, it would be anything but positive.

For me, Moody's is a preferred choice because Moody's specializes more in data analytics and other data-driven services. While Moody's returns on capital are not as high as S&P's, they are consistent and achieve high value over the long term. That's probably why Warren Buffett remains invested; after all, you outperform the market over the long term as long as you can crack the 10% mark in returns on capital. This does not mean that S&P is bad. If you can buy both cheaply, you should go for it because the business is highly regulated and extremely interesting.

Depot review August 2024 - calm before the (September) storm?

While September has lived up to its name so far (worst month on the stock market, negative in more than 50% of cases), August was a boring month in my portfolio. In keeping with the vacation season, my portfolio also shifted down a gear.

Monthly view:

In total, August was +0,5%. This corresponds to price losses of ~1.400€.

This was therefore unable to fully make up for the losses from the previous month of July (-2.2%).

Winners & losers:

There was therefore not much going on on the winners' and losers' side in August.

On the winning side are MercadoLibre and Palo Alto Networks at the top with ~€1,000 each. They are followed by Starbucks, Crowdstrike and Meta.

On the loser side are the crypto assets in my portfolio in August. Ethereum at the top with price losses of €1,500, Bitcoin in 3rd place with €900. Alphabet with ~€1,000 in price losses.

The performance-neutral movements in August were just under €4,000, after being somewhat lower in the previous months due to private issues.

However, only just under €1,400 of this went into shares, the rest is cash.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +15,3% and thus still slightly above my benchmark, the MSCI World at 14.2%. Even if the gap is slowly narrowing.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~312.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€60,000 in the current year 2023. ~44.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~2.400€ from dividends / interest and ~13.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in August were 24% above the previous year at ~€160
• Procter & Gamble is in the lead with almost €50 (gross) dividends every 3 months
• In the current year, dividends after 7 months are +24% over the first 8 months of 2023 at ~1.840€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in August for approx. 1.400€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsTSMC $TSM (+1.17%) S&P Global $SPGI (+2.04%) Procter & Gamble $PG (+2.05%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2.5%) Hershey $HSY (+1.4%) Caterpillar $CAT (+3.05%) Amgen $AMGN (+1.21%) Alphabet $GOOG (-4.95%) Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (+2.6%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0.68%) Synopsys $SNPS (+2.77%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+1%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0.98%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0.8%)
• 
  CryptoBitcoin $BTC (+0.28%) and Ethereum $ETH (-1.25%)
• 
  Sales there were none in August

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance this year, my portfolio currently stands at ~€312,000.

However, after the first few days of trading in September, my portfolio only stands at €304,000. Compared to the level of €320,000 at the end of June, this is now a significant decline in total assets.

It therefore remains exciting to see how the share price will develop in the last third of the year. However, if we see a year-end rally after a weak September, I am optimistic about my target.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

I have now bought S&P Capital IQ ($SPGI (+2.04%)). What does that mean for you? Even more content!

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NEWLY UPDATED POST

No more updates.

Mexico's stock market fell today by 5,7% its worst day since the financial crisis in 2008.

In addition to Mexican equities, the peso also suffered. The peso/USD lost 4%, after the left-wing governing party (Morena) performed surprisingly strongly in the elections and could possibly gain an overwhelming majority in Congress. This has led the market to fear that there may be constitutional changes could occur.

Mexican government bonds remained largely unchanged, with the spread measured in forex by JPMorgan's ($JPM (+2.19%) ) EMBIGD index by 8 basis points to 307 bps widened. The costs for the credit default swaps of 5Y Mexican government bonds rose by 3 basis points to 98 bps, per S&P Global ($SPGI (+2.04%) ).

Depot review May 2024 - And another NVIDIA month!

It was May 2023 when the NVIDIA story began and in May 2024 NVIDIA continues to trump everything.

In total, May was +2,2%. This corresponded to gains of ~6.200€. The negative April (-2.2% / -6,500€) is thus balanced out again.

Winners & losers:

On the winning side there were NVIDIA there was actually only one notable asset with Ethereum. The main driver of the ~6.200€ price gains, however, was NVIDIA with over €4,000 in price gains.

On the losers' side it is a colorful mix of Salesforce, Starbucks, Sartorius or MasterCard - all with slight losses with the exception of Salesforce after the rather mediocre quarterly figures

The performance-neutral movements in April were €4,000. I bought in April for ~€1,400.

My performance in the current year is +14,8% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 11.1%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~300.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€48,000 in the current year 2023. ~36.000€ of this comes from price increases, ~1.400€ from dividends / interest and ~10.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• The dividends in May were 11% below the previous year at ~€340
• This is the first month with a year-on-year dividend decline since June 2021
• However, there is a relatively simple reason for this - BASF paid out €85 last year, but BASF shares were removed from my portfolio a few months ago
• "Adjusted" for the BASF dividend, my dividends have grown by just under 15%
• In the current year, the dividends after 5 months are +14% over the first 5 months of 2023 at ~1.130€.

Buys & sells:

• I bought in April for approx. 1.400€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsAlimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (+2.6%) Alphabet $GOOG (-4.95%) Amgen $AMGN (+1.21%) Caterpillar $CAT (+3.05%) Hershey $HSY (+1.4%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+2.5%) Procter & Gamble $PG (+2.05%) S&P Global $SPGI (+2.04%) TSMC $TSM (+1.17%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0.68%) Synopsys $SNPS (+2.77%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
• CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
• Sales there were none in May

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Thanks to the extremely positive market performance this year, I was already able to break this figure in May and even reached €307,000 in the meantime. In the last few days, the value has fallen slightly below €300,000 again - I am curious to see what the remaining 7 months will bring.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

New long-term position

Hello, after a long period of consideration, I have decided to sell my shares in the Digital Security ETF and would like to replace this position with shares in a company in the financial sector.

My candidates:

Nu Holdings ( $NU (+1.59%) )

Moody's ( $MCO (+1.19%) )

Blackstone Group( $BX (+4.39%) )

• With $NU (+1.59%) I would be better diversified geographically and have a nice growth company with me
• Moody's is also a nice buy & hold company with a deep moat
• Blackstone would give me a little exposure to private equity. I'm already partly in that through Mutares ( $MUX (-1.97%) ), but Blackstone invests in larger companies/projects. So there wouldn't be too much overlap here

Which of the 3 companies do you think you would choose and why? Or would you choose a completely different one?

I already have some financials in my portfolio:

S&P Global ( $SPGI (+2.04%) )

Visa ( $V (+1.31%) )

Mastercard ( $MA (+1.13%) )

Blackrock ( $BLK )

Mutares ( $MUX (-1.97%) )