Dear Community,

Yesterday you were able to help me quickly and effectively. I sold the tiny positions $MATIC (-0.9%) with a considerable loss and $ETH (+0.32%) with a small profit and set up a weekly savings plan on $BTC (-0.08%) set up a weekly savings plan.

In order to simplify and streamline the portfolio even further, I now have the following question for you...

To help you understand my portfolio better, here is a brief explanation:

The main portfolio (currently approx. 150k) is a core-satellite portfolio with 56% $IWDA (-0.32%) , 20% $GGRP (+0.53%) , 12% $WSML (+0.64%) and 12% $XMME (-0.63%) .

With just under 20k is still the $CSPX (-0.03%) in the portfolio.

I have also been holding a separate div growth portfolio (currently approx. 34k) with these stocks for some time:

$MMM (+4.4%) approx. 1500€

$MSFT (-0.35%) approx. 1400€

$ABT (+3.04%) approx. 3300€

$JNJ (-0.53%) approx. 2800€

$PEP (-2.04%) approx. 2700€

$PG (-0.76%) approx. 3300€

$TDIV (+0.03%) approx. 3900€

$WQDS (+0.37%) approx. 3850€

$FGEQ (+0.21%) approx. 3800€

$VWRL (+0.12%) approx. 3750€

$FUSD (+0.39%) approx. 3750€

I save the ETF fraction constantly, nothing should or will change.

I'm just wondering how I should structure the ratio of individual stocks from now on. Should I increase all individual stocks to 5000€ per position or all stocks except Microsoft to 6k? Any other suggestions or ideas? If I simply leave the individual stocks untouched, the money would go into the div ETFs in tranches.

Total TER at 0.22 (which is quite acceptable for me) - and the overlaps are known and also okay for me 😄

Once again, thank you from the bottom of my heart and have a nice rest of Sunday 😎

Best regards

EvD

Today I read in the Deutsche Bank newsletter (Perspectives in the morning), which makes me believe that the US and tech will continue to outperform.

1. massive investments:

The Magnificent 7 alone are planning investments in research and development of 500 billion dollars!

Even if this will certainly not all flow into AI investments, it is safe to assume that it will be one of the main areas of investment.

To put this into perspective: Instead of investing in research and development, the Magnificent 7 could use this money to buy the entire Volkswagen Group about 10 times over.

Alternatively, they could also buy Mercedes, BMW, Adidas, BASF, Allianz, Munich Re, Deutsche Börse, Deutsche Bank, DHL and e.on!

The main beneficiary will certainly continue to be NVIDIA
$NVDA (-0.85%) but also Broadcom
$AVGO (+0.17%) and TSMC
$TSM (-0.83%) will certainly benefit, as will many other companies in the sector.

2. productivity increases

Deutsche Bank assumes that the many investments of the last two years will slowly have an impact on the productivity of the economy as a whole.

In recent years, NVIDIA in particular has benefited from the massive investments made by the Magnificent 7. Based on this, they have developed AI applications that can now be used by the economy as a whole and thus increase productivity in the wider economy. can lead to productivity gains in the wider economy.

This in turn leads to rising margins and cash flows, which in turn can drive the markets.

3 Trump and a friendly economic policy

I continue to believe that the US economy will remain strong thanks to a very pro-business America First policy under the incoming Trump administration. Europe and Asia could certainly suffer from this, but I don't see any major risks for the US there

4. high valuation / Isn't all this already priced in?

The high valuation is often cited as a counter-argument. However, it is worth taking a closer look here:

PE Ration:

• NVIDIA $NVDA (-0.85%) : 55
• Microsoft $MSFT (-0.35%) : 35
• Alphabet $GOOG (+1.73%) : 26
• Meta $META (-0.19%) : 29

Forward PE Ratio:

• NVIDIA: 32
• Microsoft: 28
• Alphabet: 21
• Meta: 24

A few other classic stocks for comparison:

• Coca-Cola
  $KO (-1.42%) : 25 (Forward: 20)
• McDonalds
  $MCD (-0.23%) : 25 (Forward: 23)
• Procter & Gamble
  $PG (-0.76%) : 28 (Forward: 22)

If you look at the forward PE for 2 years from now, many Big Tech companies are valued more favorably than the stocks mentioned above.

But isn't that already priced in? Of course, Big Tech is expected to continue to deliver and if the forecasts do not materialize, there will certainly be a major downside.

However, this would also weigh on the indices as a whole, dragging all other stocks down with them. Furthermore, some of the big tech stocks are not necessarily more expensive on a current basis.

An Alphabet share is cheaper than Procter & Gamble from a pure P/E perspective and about the same price as a Coca-Cola or McDonald's.

I won't go into more detail on stocks like Palantir
$PLTR (-0.52%) which currently have a P/E ratio of over 300 and a forward P/E ratio of 150.

This does not mean that I am assuming that the share price will fall sharply, I have simply not done enough research on the company and have focused more on Big Tech

What does this mean for Europe?

An ASML
$ASML (-1.69%) will certainly also benefit from these developments. And European companies will also purchase AI applications to increase their productivity.

However, on the one hand, the investment money in the USA will end up with the big tech companies, and on the other hand, there will certainly be much stricter regulations, which will restrict or at least delay the growth in productivity.

What do you think? Do you also believe in a further tech & USA outperformance?

#stockanalysis
#tech
#growth
#personalstrategy
#aktien

Interest rate markets 2025: challenges and opportunities for retail investors

Hello everyone,

The year 2025 will bring exciting developments on the financial markets, particularly with regard to the interest rate markets. Since the sharp rise in interest rates in recent years, many investors are faced with the question of how they can best position themselves in this environment. For retail investors - i.e. private investors - it is particularly important to understand the impact of these changes and adapt their own investment strategy accordingly.

What is happening on the interest rate markets?

Global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), have raised key interest rates sharply in 2023 and 2024 to combat stubbornly high inflation. This trend appears to be slowing in 2025, but interest rates remain at a high level. For investors, this means that Money has become more expensive, credit is harder to access and low-risk investment opportunities such as government bonds and savings accounts are once again offering attractive returns.

In the USA, the key interest rate is currently above 5%, which is having an impact on the real estate and consumer sectors in particular. Interest rates have also risen in Europe, albeit not quite as sharply. For retail investors, who often invest in ETFs, individual shares or real estate, this is a double-edged sword: On the one hand, new opportunities are opening up; on the other, old strategies are being put to the test.

Opportunities in a high interest rate environment

1.Fixed-interest securities

Bonds are a clear winner of the interest rate turnaround. For years, government and corporate bonds were unattractive to many investors as yields were low. Now the tide has turned: Short-dated US government bonds currently offer yields of 4-5%, making them a solid alternative for safety-conscious investors. Corporate bonds from established companies could also offer interesting opportunities, although the creditworthiness of the issuer should be checked carefully.

2.Dividend shares

High-dividend companies remain attractive, especially if their payouts are higher than the inflation rate and bond yields. Sectors such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare are often less sensitive to interest rates and offer long-term stability. Companies such as Procter & Gamble $PG (-0.76%) or Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0.53%) could be a good choice for income investors in 2025.

3.Overnight and fixed-term deposits

Retail investors looking for low-risk opportunities are also benefiting. Banks are once again offering higher interest rates on call money accounts and fixed-term deposits. Surplus liquidity can be parked here in the short term without taking major risks.

Challenges for retail investors

However, a high interest rate environment also entails considerable risks:

1.Equity valuations under pressure

Higher interest rates often mean that the future cash flows of companies - especially growth companies - are worth less. This leads to falling share prices in interest-sensitive sectors such as technology or real estate. Retail investors who are heavily invested in tech stocks must be prepared for volatility.

2.Rising borrowing costs

The environment has become more difficult for private investors who rely on loans, for example to buy real estate. Mortgage interest rates have risen sharply, making real estate unaffordable for many. Anyone who already has real estate financing should check how interest rate adjustments affect monthly costs.

3.Inflation risk remains

Although inflation has fallen, it remains a factor. Retail investors must ensure that their returns remain positive after deducting inflation to avoid real asset losses.

Strategies for retail investors

1.DiversificationIn an uncertain environment, it is more important than ever to diversify your portfolio. Combine low-risk investments such as bonds with growth stocks or dividend stocks.

2.Secure liquidityIn view of the rising cost of living, it is advisable to keep sufficient liquidity in a call money account.

3.Long-term perspectiveDespite the uncertainties, retail investors should stick to their long-term strategy and not panic. Market cycles come and go - patience pays off.

My question to you

How are you adapting your investment strategy to the high interest rates? Are you focusing more on bonds, or are you staying loyal to equities? And how are you planning to deal with potential interest rate charges?

I look forward to your opinions and strategies in the comments!

Kiss,

RoboLarry

Dividends the gift of companies

Dear investors

Today's question is which dividend stock is the high flyer?

The shares are different in different areas, i.e. is the share a growth share or a dividend share.

These are the two comparisons with the characteristics. This means that if I want to have a dividend portfolio, I have to choose the dividend stocks. The dividend yield is a characteristic of the share. I should pay attention to this when it approaches the double-digit yield figure, whether this pays off positively is questionable as it has to decide whether to pay out the yield and go into debt or whether to let the yield fall to compensate for the losses.

The companies that achieve a constant yield distribution are obviously becoming safer year after year, but the royal companies have a 50-year dividend payout.

But the past is not the future.

So I would concentrate on the steady development of the share price and check whether the development is positive. The motivation is to be self-aware and prove my abilities. So I know how it works with investing in my own research of the market. The feeling of movement is an up and down of emotions and it is like a betting ticket only that it is not a matter of winning or losing after 90 minutes but it is only over when I sell the share again and then I know whether I have won or lost.

If I want to win, I simply have to have time and decide whether to take the short profit or whether I have more time and short-term fluctuations don't cause panic. Then I let the right stock pay dividends until the end of the success.

My personal favorites are:

1 $Coca-Cola

2$PG (-0.76%)

3$JNJ (-0.53%)

4$NESN (+1.1%)

5$MCD (-0.23%)

6$BLK

7$MSFT (-0.35%)

8$WMT (-0.27%)

9$XOM (-3.38%)

10$V (-0.38%)

These are some pretty stable companies.

Which company is your best dividend stock?

Let me know which one you favor ✌️

Don have a great time during the rest of the year and enjoy the good things in life 🫶🎄⛄️🧘📊🆕🎆

Depot review November 2024 - The depot is growing despite larger withdrawals 🚀

Before I continue with the second part of my investment story, I would first like to share my portfolio review for November.

The second half of November was almost quiet compared to what happened at the beginning of November. Trump was elected, triggering a veritable run on the stock markets. Germany was finally freed from the traffic lights and there were also some exciting topics in the private sphere. I sold a few shares back in October to generate the equity I needed to start building a house. This continued a little further in November.

Overall, my savings rate will also (have to) be lower over the next few months. Less into the portfolio and more into the "buffer account" for building the house. Nevertheless, around €500 per month will continue to be invested and this will be pushed up again as quickly as possible.

After selling 6 shares and an ETF in October, I sold parts of my MSCI World ETF for around €13,000.

But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:

Monthly view:

In total, November was +6,3%. This corresponds to price gains of ~20.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +7.3% and the S&P500 +5.1%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is particularly exciting this month:

On the winning side with a total of almost €5,000 in price gains, my crypto investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is followed by the long runner NVIDIA with price gains of just under €2,000. 4th and 5th place then goes to the cybersecurity sector with Palo Alto Networks and Crowdstrike.

On the loser side looks very quiet this month. Amgen is still the worst performer with losses of ~€600 due to a weight loss drug that failed to fully meet Wall Street's hopes. This is followed by Sartorius with share price losses of €200. Places 3-5 are then occupied by share price losses of less than €100. All in all, a month with almost no losers.

The performance-neutral movements in October amounted to just under € -6,000. Parts have already been removed here for private topics.

current year:

My performance in the current year is +29,9% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 26.9%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~345.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€93,000 in the current year 2023. ~72.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.300€ from dividends / interest and ~16.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in November were 21% above the previous year at ~€160
• Procter & Gamble is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €50 every 3 months.
• In the current year, the dividends after 11 months are +25% over the first 11 months of 2023 at ~2.500€

Buying & selling:

• I bought in November for significantly reduced ~700€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue ChipsProcter & Gamble $PG (-0.76%) TSMC $TSM (-0.83%) S&P Global $SPGI (-0.04%) Alphabet $GOOGL (+1.45%) Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-0.53%) Amgen $AMGN (-0.26%) Herhey $HSY (-2.09%) Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD (-1.36%) Caterpillar $CAT (+1.86%)
• 
  GrowthBechtle $BC8 (-0.83%)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+0.24%) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+0.76%) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0.53%)
• 
  CryptoBitcoin $BTC (-0.08%) and Ethereum $ETH (+0.32%)
• 
  Sales as mentioned at the beginning, there was a larger part of my MSCI World holdings in November

Target 2024 & outlook 2025:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€345,000 at the end of November.

As is well known, one should not praise the day before the evening, but I am optimistic that my portfolio will not fall so far in December that I will not reach my target.

What will happen in 2025? The logical goal would of course be to reach €400,000. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change. However, as I am tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably refrain from doing so.

Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.

How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Depotupdate November - A successful month with a clear focus

November was a strong month, both in terms of returns and strategic realignment. The current portfolio value is 48.745,46 €with a solid monthly return of 6,86 %which corresponds to a price gain of 3.131,04 € . It is a further step towards a long-term and growth-oriented portfolio.

Activities in November: purchases and sales

Purchases:

S&P 500 $VUSA (+0.01%)
via savings plan

The regular savings plan with 930 € in the S&P 500 was executed as usual. This basis offers stability and long-term diversification in the portfolio.

Bitcoin $BTC (-0.08%)
The individual purchases with a value of 2.361,92 € reflect the conviction that Bitcoin will continue to gain in importance as an asset class in the long term. With a current weighting of 5,47 % it remains a tactical addition.

Sales:

Altria Group $MO (-1.99%)
The position was sold with a plus of just under 30 % which corresponds to a volume of 1.340 € corresponds to a volume of €1,340. The tobacco giant no longer fits in with the growth strategy, which focuses on innovative and future-oriented companies.

LVMH $MC (+1.82%)
This position was also sold, with a total value of 800 € and a loss of 280,74 €. Despite the quality of the company, the focus is now more on growth-oriented stocks, which is why LVMH no longer fits the strategy.

Portfolio structure and weighting

Security type weighting:

• 49.47 % ETFs - A stable anchor, particularly through the S&P 500.
• 45.05 % equities - The focus remains on individual stocks with potential for growth.
• 5.47 % Bitcoin - A small but increasingly relevant addition.

Top 5 sectors:

IT (25.19 %) - Driver in the portfolio, led by NVIDIA $NVDA (-0.85%) and Apple $AAPL (-3.76%)
Financial services (23.89 %) - Reliable returns with Allianz $ALV (-0.28%) and BlackRock $BLK (-1.64%)
Defensive consumer goods (16.05%) - Stability through P&G $PG (-0.76%) and Walmart $WMT (-0.27%)
Cyclical consumer goods (7 %) - Moderate exposure with potential.

Industrial goods (6.32%) - A diversifying addition.

Country allocation:

• USA (80 %): The dominant market in the portfolio.
• Germany (6.6%): Local stocks such as Allianz and Siemens.
• Other countries (5.54%): Global diversification.
• UK (1.08 %) and France (0.90 %): Smaller positions.

Deep Dive: The top 5 positions

NVIDIA (7.72 %):

Leader in AI development and graphics processors. NVIDIA remains the largest position and a key stock in the portfolio.

Allianz (6.16%):

A defensive anchor with stable dividends and strong market position in the insurance and wealth sector.

Apple (6.03%):

With a focus on services, wearables and technological innovation, Apple remains an essential holding.

Microsoft $MSFT (-0.35%)
(5,65 %):

Leader in cloud services and AI solutions. Microsoft remains a long-term favorite.

BlackRock (5.63%):

The world's largest asset manager benefits from rising capital inflows and remains a mainstay.

Top movers in November

Winner:

• Walmart (+15.55%): Convincing quarterly figures and strategic e-commerce expansion.
• Costco $COST (-1.07%)
  (+14,14 %): Solid performer thanks to strong member retention.
• P&G (+10.89 %): Resilience to crisis pays off.
• S&P 500 ETF (+8.38 %): Benefits from the general market upswing.
• Waste Management $WM (-1.09%)
  (+8,27 %): Stable income from a defensive business model.

Loser:

• Hercules Capital (-2.38%): The BDC specialist had a weak month. A strategic review of this position is imminent.

Conclusion and outlook

November was a very successful monthboth in terms of returns and the strategic realignment.

Key decisions:

• The focus remains on long-term growth through technology and quality stocks.
• The sales of Altria and LVMH show that the portfolio is being consistently adapted to the strategy.
• Hercules Capital is under review and could soon be removed from the portfolio as it no longer fits the growth strategy.

Long-term perspective:

With the savings plan and targeted individual purchases, the portfolio is running on "autopilot". The combination of patience, strategic adjustment and a clear focus on growth stocks strengthens the foundation for a successful future.

The portfolio remains on course - an exciting month with a clear direction!

From 18-year-old wannabe investment banker to successful private asset manager: my (bumpy) path to €300,000 in a custody account

Part 1 of X (let's see how many there will be): The new Gordon Gekko? Between Chinese small-cap recommendations from stock market letters and "AT&T is better than Amazon" (2010 - 2016)

(Part 2: https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

Previous story:

Inspired by @DonkeyInvestor I would now like to share my story and continue it if there is interest. Thanks for the cool idea!

My investment journey began about 2-3 years before my first securities purchase in 2013. While the financial crisis (2007-2009) only interested me marginally as a ~15-year-old, the emerging euro crisis from 2010 onwards aroused a much greater interest in the economy, sovereign debt and co. As part of some school work, I dealt with the debt crisis in Greece, among other things.

Through films like Wall Street or Margin Call - The Great Crash slowly sparked my interest in the stock market. With my first smartphone in 2012, I was able to secretly check share prices during lessons - which often led to the teacher confiscating it 😂 I primarily followed the prices of "cool" shares such as Daimler, Hugo Boss and Sony.

I grew a desire to become an investment banker myself and emigrate to Wall Street in New York (spoiler: neither happened 😉).

The first purchases:

My first purchases were made under contradictory circumstances. I was firmly convinced that a major crash was imminent (government debt, interest rate policy, ...) and was very convinced by well-known crash prophets such as Dirk Müller.

Nevertheless, I wanted to play along and bought my first shares.

In 2013, I started my dual business studies at a global bank. When I started my studies, I finally made my first securities purchases. On the one hand, my capital-forming benefits went into the DWS Top Dividende, and on the other, I set up an ETF savings plan on the DAX. In 2014, I added further shares such as AT&T $T (+1.55%) Verizon $VZ (-0.85%) Shell $SHEL (-1.46%) and Sony $6758 (+0.7%) were added. While Sony was a great investment, I unfortunately sold the stock far too early. My purchase price was around €12 and I sold at around €18. If I hadn't sold Sony, it would have been a tenbagger at times.

My main investment criteria at the time were

- Low P/E ratio

- High dividend yield

- And/or "cool" company

So in 2014 I had to choose between Amazon $AMZN (+0.99%) ("cool, but no dividend & much too high P/E ratio") and AT&T ("high dividend, low P/E ratio"). And, of course, the decision sucked with today's knowledge.

Another company was Macy's $M (+2.15%) . When I was in New York and visited the largest shopping center in the world, I was sure I had to have this stock.

The only two stocks I still have in my portfolio from my early years are Procter & Gamble $PG (-0.76%) (bought in 2015) and Unilever $ULVR (-0.44%) (bought in 2016).

In 2016, I had a total of 14 individual shares in my portfolio, 12 of which were sold in the following years and will probably never end up in my portfolio again.

The first lesson:

After I realized professionally that the path to investment banking and New York was probably not the right one after all (40 hours of work is really exhausting, I don't need 80 or more in investment banking), I slowly realized that I wasn't the next Gordon Gekko or Warren Buffett either.

It was too boring for me to just invest in shares - after all, I wanted to get rich quick and drive a Porsche! So from 2014, I also started investing in other things (no, unfortunately not crypto).

I tried my hand at various certificates, reverse convertibles and the like, all with little success. The biggest learning I had was with an absolutely hot tip from the internet. It was a classic pump and dump game from a stock market letter. Someone had stocked up on shares in a Chinese small cap (Tianbao Holdings) and then called on everyone to buy: "Share with the chance of a 10,000% return - forget Apple and co." It was advertised like this or something similar at the time.

I took my entire monthly salary (around €800) and thought to myself: get in! It didn't matter what the company was doing or why the opportunity should be so great! At first things went up and I was quickly up 20%. Then it went downhill - the initial investor had probably made his return and withdrawn the money. The stock exchanges quickly realized this and stopped trading. I tried to sell the shares on various stock exchanges and was able to get rid of them in Berlin, Bremen or somewhere else - with a loss of 50%. Two weeks of work for nothing. Although it was "only" a loss of €400, it really annoyed me. Not just the loss, but that I fell for something like that.

In hindsight, the €400 was extremely well invested and helped me a lot in my future investment career.

Asset development & return:

How did the first 3-4 years on the stock market go and how did my assets develop?

Year Deposit value Return

2013 2.000€ -12%

2014 8.600€ -1%

2015 17.000€ +4%

2016 35.000€ +14%

All in all, these were lost years for me in terms of returns. You can also see this from the green line, which was mostly in negative territory.

The stock markets did very well, and yet I mostly only saw losses or very low returns.

Conclusion & outlook:

So in 2016 it was clear to me: no investment banking, no New York, I'm not the new Warren Buffett and I'm not going to get rich overnight.

In the following 3 years from 2016 to 2019, I built on my initial experiences and slowly developed into a better investor. Nevertheless, more big mistakes followed (Bitcoin, Wirecard, ...).

#strategy
#personalstrategy
#etfs

If you look at the results from the last quarter, business is still stable although more and more people are having to look at prices due to inflation.

There is not much growth at P&G at the moment

• Net sales -1 %;
• Organic sales +2 %

So you can't expect rapid share price gains here, but losses will also be limited.

Highlights

• Net profit 4 billion dollars
• Diluted net income per share amounted to 1,61$a decrease of 12 % from the prior year due to higher restructuring charges.
• Core earnings per share amounted to 1,93$an increase of 5% compared to the previous year
• 2.4 billion dollars Dividend paid out
• Share buybacks worth over 1.9 billion dollars

P&G has now increased its dividend for 68 years, currently 2.3% at 1.01$ per quarter

There is still plenty of scope for increases or further share buybacks, so P&G plans to buy back its own shares for between $6bn and $7bn in the 2025 financial year.

The business is boring but quite reliable, because even in the future babies will poop themselves and people will shave, brush their teeth and wash.

Women will also continue to be in a bad mood and get their period.😂👍

Source:

https://pginvestor.com/financial-reporting/press-releases/news-details/2024/PG-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2025-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx